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Posted
5 hours ago, Hermanator said:

I heard at least a couple of economists, one of which I believe was Klugman, speculate the AI bubble is so massive, and the US economy/debt so shitty now, that the government wouldn't be able to bail out an AI bubble burst. 

hoping.jpg?s=612x612&w=0&k=20&c=0Lq9x5Pf

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Posted
5 hours ago, Hermanator said:

I heard at least a couple of economists, one of which I believe was Klugman, speculate the AI bubble is so massive, and the US economy/debt so shitty now, that the government wouldn't be able to bail out an AI bubble burst. 

So if this were to happen during this admin, does anyone think they would actually take any steps to try and recover anyway?  I think they would just stand up there and tell everyone how the economy collapsing is a liberal hoax and everything is fine.  They would lord over the ashes until they were finally voted out in 2028 (big speculation on my part) and then MAYBE some adults would be back in charge to try and fix things again.  

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So if this were to happen during this admin, does anyone think they would actually take any steps to try and recover anyway?  I think they would just stand up there and tell everyone how the economy collapsing is a liberal hoax and everything is fine.  They would lord over the ashes until they were finally voted out in 2028 (big speculation on my part) and then MAYBE some adults would be back in charge to try and fix things again.  

Well, the first parties injured here would be the techbros and oligarchs, with follow-on effects for the rest of us.

So, yeah, I would expect some sort of government supported wealth-preservation strategy for them.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, the first parties injured here would be the techbros and oligarchs, with follow-on effects for the rest of us.

So, yeah, I would expect some sort of government supported wealth-preservation strategy for them.

PPP2 and CARES2 will be huge! Subsequent 15% mortgage rates will force everyone into 60 year notes. Serfdom for most incoming. 

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Posted
20 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, the first parties injured here would be the techbros and oligarchs, with follow-on effects for the rest of us.

So, yeah, I would expect some sort of government supported wealth-preservation strategy for them.

Yes, we will bail out the scammers. And then, there will be blood. 

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Posted
18 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

But wait, there's more from Elon! 

 

This is all apocraphyia these days in the lore and legend of AI and such, but I was listening to a podcast and apparently Elon was all-in on SpaceX and told the founder of Deepmind that his whole focus was on SpaceX because he wanted to get to Mars as a back up plan for when things got bad here on earth...to which the guy told Elon "dude, the thing that is goign to go bad on earth is likely A.I., and if it's A.I., you don't think it will be able to get to Mars too based on systems, comms, technology, etc. that we used?" 

Elon then invested in Deepmind and started really focusing on AI after that "aha!" moment.

WIld.

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Posted
52 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, the first parties injured here would be the techbros and oligarchs, with follow-on effects for the rest of us.

So, yeah, I would expect some sort of government supported wealth-preservation strategy for them.

 

31 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Yes, we will bail out the scammers. And then, there will be blood. 

Yes, there will be some sort of government bailout.  But it's going to follow the Trump rule.

See, it will not be done in order to provide any greater benefit to the economy, stabilize the markets, etc.

Instead, those who will simply be handed dollars from the treasury will be people and entities that are sufficiently intertwined with/ingratiated with Trump.  Have you kissed his ass enough?  Or will he see a pretty direct financial benefit from your bailout?  If so, happy days for you!

Otherwise, you can collapse and get fucked.  Not that the admin will do the calculus of whether that will have positive or negative impacts on the economy as a whole; that simply doesn't figure into the calculus at all.  Not even a little bit.

The economy will drop dead on the side of the road.  The admin will pick and cut any bit of nutrition it can from the carcass and distribute the bits to its favored people.  And that's it.  That's the entire plan.  They'll get theirs.  The rest of y'all?  Good luck, suckers.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, immamac said:

Microns earnings today were fucking insane. Detached from any kind of reality. 

And Oracle is back to almost even from before the huge spike. AI forecasted demand stock growth giveth and it taketh away.

A line chart shows the relative performance of Oracle's stock versus the S&P 500 this year.

Edited by Vegas64
Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Yes, there will be some sort of government bailout.  But it's going to follow the Trump rule.

See, it will not be done in order to provide any greater benefit to the economy, stabilize the markets, etc.

Instead, those who will simply be handed dollars from the treasury will be people and entities that are sufficiently intertwined with/ingratiated with Trump.  Have you kissed his ass enough?  Or will he see a pretty direct financial benefit from your bailout?  If so, happy days for you!

Otherwise, you can collapse and get fucked.  Not that the admin will do the calculus of whether that will have positive or negative impacts on the economy as a whole; that simply doesn't figure into the calculus at all.  Not even a little bit.

The economy will drop dead on the side of the road.  The admin will pick and cut any bit of nutrition it can from the carcass and distribute the bits to its favored people.  And that's it.  That's the entire plan.  They'll get theirs.  The rest of y'all?  Good luck, suckers.

The question you should be asking yourself is, if you believe all that to be true, how do you best position yourself to profit and come out ahead? Think like the Big Short guys who saw the global housing collapse coming. If you really believe it, that is.

That is what I've been challenging myself with at least, having the balls to make some bets on what I think I believe to be true to best position myself for the future.

Posted
2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Yes, there will be some sort of government bailout.  But it's going to follow the Trump rule.

See, it will not be done in order to provide any greater benefit to the economy, stabilize the markets, etc.

Instead, those who will simply be handed dollars from the treasury will be people and entities that are sufficiently intertwined with/ingratiated with Trump.  Have you kissed his ass enough?  Or will he see a pretty direct financial benefit from your bailout?  If so, happy days for you!

Otherwise, you can collapse and get fucked.  Not that the admin will do the calculus of whether that will have positive or negative impacts on the economy as a whole; that simply doesn't figure into the calculus at all.  Not even a little bit.

The economy will drop dead on the side of the road.  The admin will pick and cut any bit of nutrition it can from the carcass and distribute the bits to its favored people.  And that's it.  That's the entire plan.  They'll get theirs.  The rest of y'all?  Good luck, suckers.

Sounds like we need to offer Trump a 20% stake in Brisket & Pescado's Pretty Good AI powered taqueria. a 20% stake valued at 2 Billion dollars, I might add (because it's AI, so worth 10 Billion, right?)

Posted

Something interesting to watch is OpenAI and the recent consensus that they are no longer the leader on AI, with Google’s recent releases being considered superior. If they aren’t the leaders, then suddenly they aren’t nearly as valuable as they once were. It’s not just about position, but velocity and acceleration. If OpenAI can’t catch up - and I know of no reason to expect they could - then they go from being a Ferrari to a Kia.

Granted, even the most delirious AI cheerleader will say there will be winners and losers, so OpenAI losing is not an indictment on AI as a whole. But there is a difference between knowing the stove is hot and burning your hand. OpenAI losing will hurt a lot of investors, fortunately just private investors at this point. It might also spook folks who saw OpenAI as the posterchild for AI investment.

Should have done that IPO a few weeks ago.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Something interesting to watch is OpenAI and the recent consensus that they are no longer the leader on AI, with Google’s recent releases being considered superior. If they aren’t the leaders, then suddenly they aren’t nearly as valuable as they once were. It’s not just about position, but velocity and acceleration. If OpenAI can’t catch up - and I know of no reason to expect they could - then they go from being a Ferrari to a Kia.

Granted, even the most delirious AI cheerleader will say there will be winners and losers, so OpenAI losing is not an indictment on AI as a whole. But there is a difference between knowing the stove is hot and burning your hand. OpenAI losing will hurt a lot of investors, fortunately just private investors at this point. It might also spook folks who saw OpenAI as the posterchild for AI investment.

Should have done that IPO a few weeks ago.

Depends on how you define leader. I think the consensus is surely that Google almost fumbled the bag and OpenAI should have never been allowed to grow to be what it is today and they have caught up all the ground they lost. 

Gemini's models and image generation, etc. is technically better I think the consensus is, but the mass majority of people use OpenAI more. I think their MAU's dwarf Gemini's right now. ChatGPT is the Kleenex brand name of AI and Google has only themselves to blame for that I think.

I think the analysts (and traders) who are watching this bubble in earnest are all super bullish on Google because they are vertically integrated (e.g. make their own TPU's, have a massive infrastructure via GCP, etc.) and are well positioned to win the AI wars, but OpenAI is certainly not yesterdays news.

Posted

I think the analysts (and traders) who are watching this bubble in earnest are all super bullish on Google because they are vertically integrated (e.g. make their own TPU's, have a massive infrastructure via GCP, etc.) and are well positioned to win the AI wars, but OpenAI is certainly not yesterdays news.


That’s why it’s something to watch.

But I do wonder if the value of first-to-market is overrated. For this to payoff, it needs to reduce payroll. I’m not sure brand loyalty would hold up if there is detectable differences in functionality.
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 


That’s why it’s something to watch.

But I do wonder if the value of first-to-market is overrated. For this to payoff, it needs to reduce payroll. I’m not sure brand loyalty would hold up if there is detectable differences in functionality.

 

I just read and some watched some stuff today that made the COMPLETE bear case of OpenAI and I think I can be sold on that and your POV. Specifically because:

1) OpenAI has no moat except first mover advantage

2) There is zero switching costs and LLMs and GPT type AI is a commodity (to your points)

3) The three likely exits for OpenAI are like Royal's famous quote "3 outcomes and 2 are bad (for OpenAI):

a) Microsoft strip mines OpenAI for value and leaves a rotting husk OR b) Investors/Creditors get debt called and purchase commitments pulled and all the funny money gets wiped away forcing a break up for parts OR c) OpenAI goes IPO before the unit economics are fully known and fall apart and retail investors/institutional investors are the fools holding the bag*

* And they are already talking about IPO and Altman and others makes out with billions of course. For a guy who says he's doing it for everything but the money, he wears a $500k watch and drives a $5mm car. Curious! He is existing in society as a billionaire would!

 

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted
4 hours ago, fuggled said:

 

 

4 hours ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

This Claude guy sounds like a real up and comer.

We embarked on a mission to create an Artificial Intelligence.

It gave away a video game system, and ordered a live fish, and tried to buy stun guns, pepper spray, cigarettes, and underwear.

We embarked on a mission to create an Artificial Intelligence.  We actually created an Artificial Hunter S. Thompson.  Fucking awesome.

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