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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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14 hours ago, BigHornedLurker said:

The only way Oregon or Bama can get in over Texas is the eye test .

 

Oregon 

- plays a soft SOS, easy to look good playing puffs

- no significant ranked wins , lost to the only top ranked team on their schedule 

Both of these objections go away if the Ducks win their last two, so that makes your original statement bogus.

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20 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

All of the Big Noon Kickoff People pick tOSU and Michigan to both make the CFP except for Urban Meyer, who picks both Oregon and Washington instead...

image.png.c8a1a83bb111ec314a8390c1a386e204.png

These picks are so bad, I don't ever want to hear anyone on here talk about how great this show is again.

Not one person on a show dedicated solely to college football could come up with a theoretically feasible playoff scenario?

In Meyer's scenario, Oregon loses to Washington and gets the 4 spot with 2 losses? Everyone else imagines that the loser of Ohio State Michigan would be in ahead of an undefeated Washington or Florida State?

It's literally not possible for any of these playoff scenarios to happen. 

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3 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Just win out and we'll be in the conversation. Bama won't get in once they lose to Georgia in the SEC title game. 

Yeah, I still like our chances if we win out. 

 

But any way you cut it, a Bama win against Georgia helps our chances (even if it means Bama jumps Texas after the win).  Bama winning improves the chances of a couple paths where we get in.  Bama losing only hurts our chances since our win will be devalued a bit.    

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15 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

What am I missing here?  How the hell do both Michigan and tOSU get in?  If Michigan loses, they will literally have one "good" win on their resume.

 

2 minutes ago, fellside said:

These picks are so bad, I don't ever want to hear anyone on here talk about how great this show is again.

Not one person on a show dedicated solely to college football could come up with a theoretically feasible playoff scenario?

In Meyer's scenario, Oregon loses to Washington and gets the 4 spot with 2 losses? Everyone else imagines that the loser of Ohio State Michigan would be in ahead of an undefeated Washington or Florida State?

It's literally not possible for any of these playoff scenarios to happen. 

The only explanation is that these are actually predictions for what the current rankings will be. 

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Just now, LonghornSean said:

 

The only explanation is that these are actually predictions for what the current rankings will be. 

And Urban thought Michigan and Ohio State would share the #1 spot?

Maybe a producer didn't explain it to them correctly. Either way, trash.

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7 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Massey has Wyoming #72, Auburn #33, UK #39, MSU #48, and Arkie #58.   

Log off and go play outside.

Look at what you just posted.  Massey has Auburn #33. They just got dominated by his #89 team.  Please.

Edited by JBJ
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Funny how the most crucial element to our successful inclusion in the playoffs is the inability of our DC to call a defense that can hold a three-point lead for just over a minute in one game. Did good otherwise, but...

Or, for a lot of Surly, the inability of the OC to gain a ten-point lead after 59 minutes of foobaw. 

We can still get in, and we still have the same task going forward:

Kick the shit outta Tech. Then kick the shit outta whatever half-ass bedraggled crew slithers into Jerrahworld the next week. 

That's all we can do, let the chips fall where they may.

 

 

 

Oh, and 0U sucks.

Hook'em.

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Just now, Beau Vine said:

Computer rankings don't hinge on one game, you know.  

I fully understand.  I actually have my own. 

Look at Auburn's resume yourself.  Is #33 reasonable?  #33 generally means you have a decent chance to upset a top team.  What are their odds against Bama, two scores?  The people with money on the line don't agree.

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1 minute ago, JBJ said:

I fully understand.  I actually have my own. 

Look at Auburn's resume yourself.  Is #33 reasonable?  #33 generally means you have a decent chance to upset a top team.  What are their odds against Bama, two scores?  The people with money on the line don't agree.

Honestly, I think Auburn at #33 is wildly overrated.  But not more overrated than Wyoming being ahead of half the SEC.

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Has anyone talked about how KSU is clearly under ranked by 4 spots? They lost at #7, #9 and #20, with the first being a walk off 61 yard field goal, the second being in overtime and the third being by one touchdown. They should be right behind LSU as the second highest ranked 3 loss team.

I still can’t believe we pulled that game out with Murphy at quarterback. 

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Look at Bama's schedule.  Wyoming is better than: MTSU, USF, MSU, Arkansas, Kentucky, Chattanooga, and Auburn.

That group as a whole only has 5 P5 wins. 2 are against each other, 2 are against Florida, and 1 is against Vandy.


I would not concede a purely subjective assertion that Wyoming is better than half of those teams, but more to the point you can make the same subjective argument Wyoming is better than Rice, Baylor, Houston, BYU, TCU, and Tech.

That group only has 16 power 5 wins with an extra conference game, and it is mostly circular. All but two being against each other, quasi P5 Big 12 newcomers/bottom dwellers Cincinnati/UCF, and Arkansas. UH did get WVU on the Hail Mary so good for them. Tech, who Wyoming beat, has is 3-1 against that group and lost to BYU on a third string QB. They also add one of the two outside P5 wins with a 3 point win over Kansas, who was on their third string QB.

It’s the same shit.
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12 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Lol at the Big 10/secsecsec favoritism....and yet, some of y'all still want Bama to win out so you can have a UGA/UT fight for fourth. You're fucking crazy for wanting that battle....fight the Pac or anyone else, but don't leave it to the committee to choose between 12-1 UGA and 12-1 Texas  

 

Getting into a beauty contest with any of the 3 UGA/UM/OSU is not great for us because of the collective recent histories.     UGA win locks up a spot and we are still in a beauty contest with B1G loser, ideally UM.  Bama win changes the narrative about who should be ranked higher, UT or Bama.

Meanwhile, a blowout game how does the committee justify taking one CCG loser over the other?   UGA and fOSU have 3 wins in 8 appearances combined,  plus fOSU also get left out before as a 12-1 champ for a 12-1 non-champ because it was Bama.  Plus OSU didn’t have the benefit of beating SEC champ on their resume  

 

I think it’s a lot better chance UGA and fOSU cancel each other out making them less likely to repeat 2018

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2 hours ago, blutow said:

Yeah, I still like our chances if we win out. 

 

But any way you cut it, a Bama win against Georgia helps our chances (even if it means Bama jumps Texas after the win).  Bama winning improves the chances of a couple paths where we get in.  Bama losing only hurts our chances since our win will be devalued a bit.    

This is 100% wrong. Bama must be eliminated because with a win, both Bama and UGA will be ahead of us and both likely make the playoff. It is crazy people think this would benefit us - and legitimately think we’d be ahead of UGA if this happens. Our win wouldn’t be devalued at all (unless a blowout) with the clear #1 beating them - and us, and nobody else. 

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1 hour ago, Treefidy said:

Getting into a beauty contest with any of the 3 UGA/UM/OSU is not great for us because of the collective recent histories.  

There is no situation where an SEC or BIG CCG loser goes in over Texas if we win out (or Oregon if they win out).  Yeah, they have let CCG losers in in the past, but under different circumstances.   

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3 minutes ago, blutow said:

There is no situation where an SEC or BIG CCG loser goes in over Texas if we win out (or Oregon if they win out).  Yeah, they have let CCG losers in in the past, but under different circumstances.   

A 12-1, 2-time defending champ UGA with 22 wins in a row prior to getting knocked off by Bama absolutely gets in over us. You’re crazy if you think otherwise. 

I suspect a UM or OSU team that didn’t make its CCG does not. But I don’t know that. 

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4 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

This is 100% wrong. Bama must be eliminated because with a win, both Bama and UGA will be ahead of us and both likely make the playoff. It is crazy people think this would benefit us - and legitimately think we’d be ahead of UGA if this happens. Our win wouldn’t be devalued at all (unless a blowout) with the clear #1 beating them - and us, and nobody else. 

Yeah, agree to disagree.  The SEC (or BIG) isn't getting 2 teams in this year unless there is total chaos.  I do think there is decent chance they put Bama in front of Texas if they beat Georgia, but again they are only getting one spot unless everyone start losing this weekend.   

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1 minute ago, blutow said:

Yeah, agree to disagree.  The SEC (or BIG) isn't getting 2 teams in this year unless there is total chaos.  I do think there is decent chance they put Bama in front of Texas if they beat Georgia, but again they are only getting one spot unless everyone start losing this weekend.   

Maybe, but it won’t be to put Texas in. UGA would still be ahead of us. Bama winning is disastrous, and the cute, contrarian thinking about this game is insane to me. 

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2 minutes ago, blutow said:

There is no situation where an SEC or BIG CCG loser goes in over Texas if we win out (or Oregon if they win out).  Yeah, they have let CCG losers in in the past, but under different circumstances.   

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Ohio State plays a really close game at Michigan and barely loses, the asshat pundits will be saying both are two of the best teams in college football and both deserve to be in the playoffs.  Same could be said for a Bama close victory over Georgia.  You will suddenly hear, both deserve to be in.  Look at the great game we just watched and UGA and Bama are definitely two of the top 4 teams.  Not saying it’s right but the committee has screwed this up before so why stop now.  I figure a Final Four of Michigan, Bama, UGA and Ohio State is what some folks would argue for. 

 

Oh, and Oregon is beating up on a bunch of bad teams and has only played one good team, Washington, and lost that one.  I find it interesting that the committee would throw out head to head (UT versus Bama) and SOS (UT versus Oregon) and just go with the eye test.  It wouldn’t shock me but it’s fucked up. 

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8 minutes ago, blutow said:

There is no situation where an SEC or BIG CCG loser goes in over Texas if we win out (or Oregon if they win out).  Yeah, they have let CCG losers in in the past, but under different circumstances.   

Jewish wang has been saying this shit for weeks. He knows nothing and is clueless about how the CFP works. Dont waste your breath on him. 

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2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Ohio State plays a really close game at Michigan and barely loses, the asshat pundits will be saying both are two of the best teams in college football and both deserve to be in the playoffs.  Same could be said for a Bama close victory over Georgia.  You will suddenly hear, both deserve to be in.  Look at the great game we just watched and UGA and Bama are definitely two of the top 4 teams.  Not saying it’s right but the committee has screwed this up before so why stop now.  I figure a Final Four of Michigan, Bama, UGA and Ohio State is what some folks would argue for. 

 

Oh, and Oregon is beating up on a bunch of bad teams and has only played one good team, Washington, and lost that one.  I find it interesting that the committee would throw out head to head (UT versus Bama) and SOS (UT versus Oregon) and just go with the eye test.  It wouldn’t shock me but it’s fucked up. 

Jesus people. We arent Baylor. They arent putting a 1 loss non conference champ Michigan with 1 ranked win or a 1 loss Georgia who would have a loss to the team we beat, a weaker SOS, and no conf championship over a 1 loss Big 12 champ Texas with a win over the SEC champ. They wont and if you think otherwise you can kiss my ass. 

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Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Jewish wang has been saying this shit for weeks. He knows nothing and is clueless about how the CFP works. Dont waste your breath on him. 

I know quite a bit about it. I’m sorry a large portion of our fan base insists on being emotionally brainless about this. Here’s one web site I pay attention to:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaafootball/ncaafootballtournpartprob.html

According to this site, if we win out, we have 49% shot, versus Bama’s table-running 69% shot. I think we out to be lower in that scenario but I realize a lot can happen. I think Bama however ought to be much higher in their scenario. What is most interest is UGA’s 93% shot with a loss, which most assuredly is assumed to be SECCCG. 

I’ll post more probabilities like this.  But they’re all directionally similar. And yet I am the clueless one. 

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3 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

A 12-1, 2-time defending champ UGA with 22 wins in a row prior to getting knocked off by Bama absolutely gets in over us. You’re crazy if you think otherwise. 

I suspect a UM or OSU team that didn’t make its CCG does not. But I don’t know that. 

Why? They lose the most difficult game on their schedule but they deserve to go because last years team was so good? This is a terrible take

 

4 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Ohio State plays a really close game at Michigan and barely loses, the asshat pundits will be saying both are two of the best teams in college football and both deserve to be in the playoffs.  Same could be said for a Bama close victory over Georgia.  You will suddenly hear, both deserve to be in.  Look at the great game we just watched and UGA and Bama are definitely two of the top 4 teams.  Not saying it’s right but the committee has screwed this up before so why stop now.  I figure a Final Four of Michigan, Bama, UGA and Ohio State is what some folks would argue for. 

 

Oh, and Oregon is beating up on a bunch of bad teams and has only played one good team, Washington, and lost that one.  I find it interesting that the committee would throw out head to head (UT versus Bama) and SOS (UT versus Oregon) and just go with the eye test.  It wouldn’t shock me but it’s fucked up. 

The CFP committee is not leaving 12-1 UT at home in favor of a Big 10 team that didn't make it's conference championship or the Pac 12 title game loser or the SEC title game loser. It's not happening. The only years something like has happened has been years where there weren't viable options for the 4th spot. 

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2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Jesus people. We arent Baylor. They arent putting a 1 loss non conference champ Michigan with 1 ranked win or a 1 loss Georgia who would have a loss to the team we beat, a weaker SOS, and no conf championship over a 1 loss Big 12 champ Texas with a win over the SEC champ. They wont and if you think otherwise you can kiss my ass. 

Well we’ve already bet, so I’ll just take your money instead of kissing your ass. 

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1 minute ago, Jewish Wang said:

I know quite a bit about it. I’m sorry a large portion of our fan base insists on being emotionally brainless about this. Here’s one web site I pay attention to:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaafootball/ncaafootballtournpartprob.html

According to this site, if we win out, we have 49% shot, versus Bama’s table-running 69% shot. I think we out to be lower in that scenario but I realize a lot can happen. I think Bama however ought to be much higher in their scenario. What is most interest is UGA’s 93% shot with a loss, which most assuredly is assumed to be SECCCG. 

I’ll post more probabilities like this.  But they’re all directionally similar. And yet I am the clueless one. 

Can you shut the fuck up about this nonsense until Bama actually beats Georgia and we are in this situation. Nobody thinks you are right outside of like 2 other braindead morons on this board. There is 0% chance they are putting Georgia above us. They wont. Nobody is being emotional except you and the dumbfucks that cant picture a world without Georgia in the playoffs. Georgia's playoffs starts with Bama. Get over it. 

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ESPN has us at 29% if we win out, which sounds more reasonable: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

Bama at 32%.  UGA at 76% if they lose SEC CCG. 

What is interesting is ESPN argues UGA is probably in no matter what and is more than twice as likely as conference winners Bama and Texas to make it. 

I like these percentages less than the other one but again they tell the same story. 

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5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Can you shut the fuck up about this nonsense until Bama actually beats Georgia and we are in this situation. Nobody thinks you are right outside of like 2 other braindead morons on this board. There is 0% chance they are putting Georgia above us. They wont. Nobody is being emotional except you and the dumbfucks that cant picture a world without Georgia in the playoffs. Georgia's playoffs starts with Bama. Get over it. 

image.gif.6ec5982ce5ec3775337beee271b6dfee.gif

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3 hours ago, JBJ said:

Look at what you just posted.  Massey has Auburn #33. They just got dominated by his #89 team.  Please.

According to this very reputable and data driven website, New Mexico St is also better than us. So careful, glass houses and such.

https://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/path;winner=New Mexico St;loser=Texas;sport=CFB;year=2023;method=2

 

Screenshot_20231122_103513_Chrome.jpg

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16 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

I know quite a bit about it. I’m sorry a large portion of our fan base insists on being emotionally brainless about this. Here’s one web site I pay attention to:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaafootball/ncaafootballtournpartprob.html

According to this site, if we win out, we have 49% shot, versus Bama’s table-running 69% shot. I think we out to be lower in that scenario but I realize a lot can happen. I think Bama however ought to be much higher in their scenario. What is most interest is UGA’s 93% shot with a loss, which most assuredly is assumed to be SECCCG. 

I’ll post more probabilities like this.  But they’re all directionally similar. And yet I am the clueless one. 

Lol, you "statistics" nerds crack me up. Too bad the games aren't played on computers or spreadsheets.

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3 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

Lol, you "statistics" needs crack me up. Too bad the games aren't played on computers or spreadsheets.

I’m sorry data and probabilities crack you up, Lou. I’m aware games are played on the field, and I love college football. I’ll be there Friday and will kick Yormark in the balls if that chicken fucker shows up. But we have 2 weeks left and are running out of time for upsets to help us, while winning our last 3 games against meh opponents by an average of 5 points. You know, games that were actually played on the field. 

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19 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

I know quite a bit about it. I’m sorry a large portion of our fan base insists on being emotionally brainless about this. Here’s one web site I pay attention to:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaafootball/ncaafootballtournpartprob.html

According to this site, if we win out, we have 49% shot, versus Bama’s table-running 69% shot. I think we out to be lower in that scenario but I realize a lot can happen. I think Bama however ought to be much higher in their scenario. What is most interest is UGA’s 93% shot with a loss, which most assuredly is assumed to be SECCCG. 

I’ll post more probabilities like this.  But they’re all directionally similar. And yet I am the clueless one. 

How does this website quantify into a percentage the thoughts and emotions of (presumably) logical human beings that will sit and discuss their own opinions a few weeks into the future? With no historical precedent because past committees were made up of different humans with different opinions?

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Can’t see the Big 10 also-ran having a shot. If it’s Ohio State they couldn’t beat Michigan’s backup coach, so why let them in with the big boys. If it’s Michigan their total lack of résumé will doom them. 

Georgia would perhaps have a better case, but at Texas’s expense?  Hard to get around “Georgia lost to a team that Texas beat on the road” argument. 

1-loss Georgia over a 1-loss PAC12 champ is probably a more interesting discussion. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, TheBryMan81 said:

How does this website quantify into a percentage the thoughts and emotions of (presumably) logical human beings that will sit and discuss their own opinions a few weeks into the future? With no historical precedent because past committees were made up of different humans with different opinions?

Consider it a black box of fuckery, which all models are in reality. None of us knows what is going to happen the next 2 rounds of games. But I have a fair idea we are getting left out, think the common knowledge on this site is exclusive to emotional Horn fans, and have accordingly bet on it. I’ll bet more money. 

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3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The fun thing about these odds machines is that the maker has to input who would be taken in the "tie scenarios" anyhow.  Posting them to "prove" one team will be favored in a virtual tie is actually useless.

Correct. Look at Vegas odds. We are 6th to make it. Right on par with UW (at #7) and decidedly ahead of FSU, interestingly. Decidedly BEHIND Bama at #5. And of course UGA, but that’s not representative about the SEC CCG loser argument I’m making. 

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6 minutes ago, MrX said:

Can’t see the Big 10 also-ran having a shot. If it’s Ohio State they couldn’t beat Michigan’s backup coach, so why let them in with the big boys. If it’s Michigan their total lack of résumé will doom them. 

Georgia would perhaps have a better case, but at Texas’s expense?  Hard to get around “Georgia lost to a team that Texas beat on the road” argument. 

1-loss Georgia over a 1-loss PAC12 champ is probably a more interesting discussion. 
 

 

Agreed on Big 10 unless some really weird shit happens in that game Saturday. UGA will undoubtedly have a better case if they keep it close. It won’t be tough to get around that transitive argument for UGA at all. If UT, UO and UGA are the 3 teams for the final 2 spots, I think we are odd man out unless we start blowing teams out. 

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43 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Oh, and Oregon is beating up on a bunch of bad teams and has only played one good team, Washington, and lost that one.  I find it interesting that the committee would throw out head to head (UT versus Bama) and SOS (UT versus Oregon) and just go with the eye test.  It wouldn’t shock me but it’s fucked up. 

So long as Horns win by more than 8 against tech, I suspect the committee will move us ahead of Oregon after this weekend citing similar records and performance against common opponents. 

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16 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Correct. Look at Vegas odds. We are 6th to make it. Right on par with UW (at #7) and decidedly ahead of FSU, interestingly. Decidedly BEHIND Bama at #5. And of course UGA, but that’s not representative about the SEC CCG loser argument I’m making. 

Sportsbook Review has us at 5th just behind OSU and ahead of FSU, UW, & Bama.

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4 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

So long as Horns win by more than 8 against tech, I suspect the committee will move us ahead of Oregon after this weekend citing similar records and performance against common opponents. 

The committee dug themselves into a stupid hole when they put Oregon in front of Texas and Bama in the initial rankings.  Eye test and timing are the only explanation...  I hope they use tech as a reason to adjust, but I seriously doubt that will happen.  While they are supposed to consider common opponent results, they are theoretically not supposed to reward based on margin of victory.  It's all bullshit, so they will do what they want and clearly we need these late season games to be convincing wins.  If you look at what the criteria are supposed to be, a CCG champ Texas should be in good shape against a 1 loss Oregon, Bama, non-champ Georgia, non-champ OSU/Mich etc..   But it all likely comes down to who in that room can push their agenda on the others.  Here's what "must" be considered by the committee (but then potentially ignored) -     

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

 

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It is almost pathetic and hilarious to watch Texas fans twist themselves into a 12-1 Texas being left out in favor of non-champ Georgia or non-division winner Ohio State/Michigan.

I honestly think a handful of Texas fans want us to miss the playoffs.  So they can be right. 

While everyone else will be rightly mad that a 12-1 Texas is left out, they can run around like:

Lying Told You So GIF by Shalita Grant

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23 minutes ago, hook me said:

Sportsbook Review has us at 5th just behind OSU and ahead of FSU, UW, & Bama.

No oddsmaker would have us ahead of Bama

Team  DraftKings FanDuel  BetMGM Caesars  bet365
Georgia +240 +230  +225 +240 +225
Michigan +260 +280 🔥 +275 +240 ❄️ +240
Ohio State +600 +500 +500 +700 🔥 +500
Oregon +600 ❄️ +650 +700 +700 +650
Alabama +700 +750 +700 +750 +700
Texas +1300 ❄️ +1400 +1400 +1400 +1400
Washington +1500 🔥 +1300 +1200 +1400 🔥 +1200
Florida State +3000 +3000 +3300 🔥 +1400 ❄️ +2800
Louisville +15000 +17000 🔥 +10000  +10000  +15000
Iowa +100000 +100000 +50000 +200000 🔥 N/A
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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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