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Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)


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3 hours ago, Cum Rocket said:

I believe in the goldbug world there's long been a suspicion that somehow the GLD etf was used to "sell paper gold" and suppress the price, but I'm not sure of the mechanics of that. The difference here would be there is a known, finite amount of bitcoin. Perhaps the resident gold bug @RDCanecutter could elaborate on the GLD thing.

I am the last guy to ask about GLD, etfs, paper gold, or anything other than actual jewelry, ingots, or coins. (Most of my savings are in stocks for big blue-chip companies that have nothing to do with shiny metal.)

As for supply of actual gold the mineral, don't we get a lot (most?) of it as a by-product of large mining operations for other minerals? I mean sure there are dudes in the jungle dumping cyanide everywhere while they specifically mine gold, and of course there are the almost Oak-Island-ish videos of dudes starting up a gold mine in Alaska or panning in a river, but their profit appears to come from "mining" the attention of viewers plus maybe selling some gear. Me if I want to get cold and wet, I'll just go kayaking.

But if you want to talk about hiking through South America 100 years ago with Sovereigns sewn inside your clothes, those are the things I like to read about.

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This is interesting to me for a couple reasons. 

1) it shows unique ability of lightning to transport value via micropayments quickly. If AI really is to become ubiquitous and Bitcoin via lightning network is integrated then that would be a clear example of a medium of exchange.

2) if adoption and integration of lightning is substantial it will test the viability of current tax code. Currently if you pay for something with Bitcoin it’s supposed to be a taxable event. But if AI models are constantly routing an untold number of payments, that rule is obviously unenforceable and obsolete.

 

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2 hours ago, Cum Rocket said:

This is interesting to me for a couple reasons. 

1) it shows unique ability of lightning to transport value via micropayments quickly. If AI really is to become ubiquitous and Bitcoin via lightning network is integrated then that would be a clear example of a medium of exchange.

2) if adoption and integration of lightning is substantial it will test the viability of current tax code. Currently if you pay for something with Bitcoin it’s supposed to be a taxable event. But if AI models are constantly routing an untold number of payments, that rule is obviously unenforceable and obsolete.

 

I think the value of BTC as a currency is quickly leaving in the rear-view mirror. It's at best a store of value and at worst, a speculative asset. Why would I want to spend BTC to buy pizza when it's gained significantly since inception? That $20 pizza could be worth $2,000 one day (or $0)

The tax situation as well is a huge hindrance. Nobody wants to have to calculate their cost basis for a pizza.

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7 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I think the value of BTC as a currency is quickly leaving in the rear-view mirror. It's at best a store of value and at worst, a speculative asset. Why would I want to spend BTC to buy pizza when it's gained significantly since inception? That $20 pizza could be worth $2,000 one day (or $0)

The tax situation as well is a huge hindrance. Nobody wants to have to calculate their cost basis for a pizza.

So let me see if I understand you.

1. The price has bitcoin has increase a lot (more money to spend).

2. Ownership of Bitcoin is expanding from a small niche to a very broad ownership base (more people to spend money).

3. Large institutions, for the first time ever, have an interest in the success of Bitcoin (resources to develop).

4. Bitcoin is receiving tremendous "free advertising" (FOMO).

5. Technology is making new POS technology easier by the day.

Having evaluated the wherefors and whathaveyous, you decided based on these facts that there is basically no chance in hell anyone will develop a POS Bitcoin application to spend the increasing billions people have accumulated in capital gains.

Do I have this right?

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10 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

So let me see if I understand you.

1. The price has bitcoin has increase a lot (more money to spend).

2. Ownership of Bitcoin is expanding from a small niche to a very broad ownership base (more people to spend money).

3. Large institutions, for the first time ever, have an interest in the success of Bitcoin (resources to develop).

4. Bitcoin is receiving tremendous "free advertising" (FOMO).

5. Technology is making new POS technology easier by the day.

Having evaluated the wherefors and whathaveyous, you decided based on these facts that there is basically no chance in hell anyone will develop a POS Bitcoin application to spend the increasing billions people have accumulated in capital gains.

Do I have this right?

They can create the tech all they want and I'm sure it will/is created.

Will spending BTC day-to-day have wide adoption? Not until (if ever) the price has stability and the tax issue is resolved. A one-off large transaction like buying a home with BTC? Sure, I can see that. Going to the convenience store and buying a couple of drinks and a tank of gas? No. 

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4 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

They can create the tech all they want and I'm sure it will/is created.

Will spending BTC day-to-day have wide adoption? Not until (if ever) the price has stability and the tax issue is resolved. A one-off large transaction like buying a home with BTC? Sure, I can see that. Going to the convenience store and buying a couple of drinks and a tank of gas? No. 

While I agree it's overkill in buying a coke at the corner store which creates a capital gain taxable event, it's not like we haven't solved the sales tax event. And if there was one technology that could solve small capital gain transactions, it's crypto. And while I don't agree with it, the federal govt could even get paid during the transaction, and later reconcile the actual tax amount.

 

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I need to figure out a way to hedge my  BTC and ETH holdings, as they have once again become a non-trivial asset. I'd prefer a different strategy next price collapse than sitting around with my dick in my hand while crypto falls 80%. I dont see any liquid options markets on ETFs, just the miners and oddball companies like MSTR. Anyone have a decent hedging strategy they want to share?

Also, I was just poking around in my coinbase account and was laughing at some of the shit coins I still have in there. I don't even remember how or why I acquired some of this crap. I think some of it was probably freebies for watching 2 minute videos on coinbase. Its probably around $1000 total with the majority being Solana and Cardano. I'm thinking I should just liquidate it all and convert to BTC with it. Is there any compelling story behind either Solana or Cardano? I stopped paying attention to alt coins years ago and likely didnt have good reasons for buying it back then. 

I also have about 4M Shiba Inu burning a hole in my pocket. Thats right bitches... four. million. doggo. coins.

image.png.81e0da78949ae59bb81e11060b05ba62.png

I think I bought a bunch when it was in that hyper-volatile stage, sold most for a 10%  gain and left myself with 4M of those bad boys.....aka $70 USD. Apparently its up 70% this week so it may be a Sizzler weekend. Looks like the closest one is in Gallup, NM. 

 

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Solana and Cardano have active developments ongoing.  Solana is touted as a technically superior competitor to Ethereum.  I thought Cardano was mostly dead, but it seems to be performing well lately so someone likes it.

SHIB jumped recently because of development news, but I'm not very familiar with what is happening on that platform.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/1/2024 at 8:58 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

They can create the tech all they want and I'm sure it will/is created.

Will spending BTC day-to-day have wide adoption? Not until (if ever) the price has stability and the tax issue is resolved. A one-off large transaction like buying a home with BTC? Sure, I can see that. Going to the convenience store and buying a couple of drinks and a tank of gas? No. 

If you are suggesting that there we are going to order a pizza in Satoshis, nobody is arguing that. The normal unit of currency will always be dollars, except as you point out for large transactions like houses.

However, you will absolutely be able to swipe a POS sale application and pay with BTC. It may be as simple as large banks allow you to pay your credit card statement with BTC. However, there are already a few POS BTC applications from small companies. I don't think the Lightning Layer 2 solution is technically ready yet, but there is VERY little reason to believe it can't be worked out. And by worked out, I mean it solves the transaction cost problem one way or another.

The tax thing is a complete nonissue.

Now, probably YOU won't be buying stuff in BTC. But there are >50 million Americans, many of whom hold highly large volumes appreciated BTC. You could be right, big companies no longer care about profits. However, I think they do. Now that large institutions are involved it is only a matter of time.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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25 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

However, you will absolutely be able to swipe a POS sale application and pay with BTC. It may be as simple as large banks allow you to pay your credit card statement with BTC. However, there are already a few POS BTC applications from small companies. I don't think the Lightning Layer 2 solution is technically ready yet, but there is VERY little reason to believe it can't be worked out. And by worked out, I mean it solves the transaction cost problem one way or another.

My dude, they have been saying lightning will be ready in 2 weeks for like 5 years now. BTC transactions are horrible for consumer purchases because of the 10+ minute transaction confirmation time due to the core mechanism of the BTC blockchain, not to mention the immense potential for fraud and transaction theft because there is no recourse once a transaction is processed into the blockchain. 

The reason to believe "it can't be worked out" is because of the horrendously energy inefficient, expensive, and complicated process of participating in a bitcoin transaction, doubly so when compared to modern payment processing systems 

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15 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Now, probably YOU won't be buying stuff in BTC. But there are >50 million Americans, many of whom hold highly large volumes appreciated BTC. You could be right, big companies no longer care about profits. However, I think they do. Now that large institutions are involved it is only a matter of time.

Lulz. I'd like to see the math on that. I own a fraction of a BTC and I am in the top 10% of holders on the planet. The market is dominated by whales.

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2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Gotta have a correction first I think, too many of the traders will want to start cashing some. I expect that sub 50k like others are predicting (before going back up again)

Maybe.  What's different this (halving period) time is the institutional buying via the spot ETFs.  The $1.3B liquidation of Gemini BTC holdings over the last week or so didn't even cause a dip.  IIRC, Mt Gox was supposed to release some BTC related to their bankruptcy, but I'm having trouble finding clarity on how much, when and how that will happen.  Point is... the spot ETF inflows seem to be mitigating the effect of whale sales.

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11 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Maybe.  What's different this (halving period) time is the institutional buying via the spot ETFs.  The $1.3B liquidation of Gemini BTC holdings over the last week or so didn't even cause a dip.  IIRC, Mt Gox was supposed to release some BTC related to their bankruptcy, but I'm having trouble finding clarity on how much, when and how that will happen.  Point is... the spot ETF inflows seem to be mitigating the effect of whale sales.

Yeah, the ETFs are providing enough new money for the whales to cash out. Wasn't that the plan all along? 

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25 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yeah, the ETFs are providing enough new money for the whales to cash out. Wasn't that the plan all along? 

I appreciate your consistency.

It's funny that luddites-- older, pre-internet Gen X'ers with jowls and blood pressures and low testosterone-- who were very loud in their "BTC is a scam! Saw this coming a mile away because I'm a lawyer who went to a private high school and America made an investment in ME!" and danced on the crypto grave at the beginning and middle of the crypto winner, are of course, nowhere to be found anymore now that BlackRock and JPMC say it's cool.

Also, here is a hot sports opinion-- SBF, while still being an unethical and fraudulent liar, was actually right and had he been able to juggle the balls in the air better (and had better timing) he'd still be getting Times magazine covers for being a crypto billionaire and leader versus having his vegan diet and facing 100+ years in the clink being the topic of discussion. 

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21 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

I appreciate your consistency.

 

CaptainAntifa is the perfect mid curve crypto hater. 

 

24 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

BTC is a scam! Saw this coming a mile away

This is their energy. 

IMG-1187.jpg

25 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Also, here is a hot sports opinion-- SBF, while still being an unethical and fraudulent liar, was actually right and had he been able to juggle the balls in the air better (and had better timing) he'd still be getting Times magazine covers for being a crypto billionaire and leader versus having his vegan diet and facing 100+ years in the clink being the topic of discussion.

That was an expertly executed hit by CZ from Binance. 

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It wasn't a "hit" from CZ - FTX was operating a fraudulent business with a $6,800,000,000 hole in their books and stole billions of dollars of customer funds. He shined a light on it, but he's not the person who made them steal money to make a bunch of terrible longshot bets.

 

And lulz GRUhorn, is that you?? Must be building up your post count before you post some more russian propaganda in the Ukraine War thread, eh?

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1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

 

Also, here is a hot sports opinion-- SBF, while still being an unethical and fraudulent liar, was actually right and had he been able to juggle the balls in the air better (and had better timing) he'd still be getting Times magazine covers for being a crypto billionaire and leader versus having his vegan diet and facing 100+ years in the clink being the topic of discussion. 

All while porking a troglodyte.

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Part of the massive ETF growth is due investors fleeing the Grayscale bitcoin ETF. The amount is impossible to fully calculate. If true then the new ETF growth may start to slow.

But you also have other factors coming into play

  • other ETF firms reportedly investigating the creation
  • moving towards ETF investors being allowed to borrow against the bitcoin ETF holdings
  • more and more investment firms recommending their investors put 1-5% into crypto
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49 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It wasn't a "hit" from CZ - FTX was operating a fraudulent business with a $6,800,000,000 hole in their books and stole billions of dollars of customer funds. He shined a light on it, but he's not the person who made them steal money to make a bunch of terrible longshot bets.

 

And lulz GRUhorn, is that you?? Must be building up your post count before you post some more russian propaganda in the Ukraine War thread, eh?

The Ftx financial situation wasn't public knowledge until CZ brought it to light with a tweet. Then the run on Ftx started and it was game over. 

 

Love these Dave Portnoy Bitcoin cope clips. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Cum Rocket said:

The Ftx financial situation wasn't public knowledge until CZ brought it to light with a tweet. Then the run on Ftx started and it was game over. 

So just to be clear: it's your contention that as long as people don't know about a fraud, there's no fraud happening and it's all totally legal and totally cool?

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A good day to be Michael Saylor. Microstrategy up 20%. This guy will end up looking like a genius and one of the richest men on the planet. All because he “got it” and had big enough balls to go all in with large amounts of money. 

 

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

So just to be clear: it's your contention that as long as people don't know about a fraud, there's no fraud happening and it's all totally legal and totally cool?

This is a good heuristic I like to use online. 

If someone starts a comment or question with So…, 99% of the time that person is wrong. Either they're imagining something you said, or trying to insert words into your mouth. 

 

I only commented on it being a hit by CZ. Made no comment on SBF’s fraud or the nature of fraud itself.

 

The fact remains that if he had made it through to the next bull market, the fiat value of all his tokens would've been able to paper over his fuck ups. Would he then have learned his lesson and straightened things up? I guess we'll never know. 

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27 minutes ago, Cum Rocket said:

The fact remains that if he had made it through to the next bull market, the fiat value of all his tokens would've been able to paper over his fuck ups. Would he then have learned his lesson and straightened things up? I guess we'll never know. 

Is it your contention that if the fraud has been papered over it would be of no consequence? You seem very unwilling to answer this yes/no question. 

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If someone commits fraud but is somehow able to cover it up, it's still 100% wrong and illegal. However we all know that there must be situations where this occurs and the criminal gets away with it. 

I think this is what most people agree with and believe.

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With this rise in crypto prices, I believe the FTX victims will basically be made whole even though they won't feel like it. Let's say bitcoin was $20K in Nov '22 when FTX collapsed and you had 1 bitcoin on their site. The recent rise in price will most likely allow you to eventually get $20K back. I realize that the victim wants 1 BTC back and not $20K.  They most likely will get paid in bitcoin but it will be whatever BTC fraction = $20K.

It's impossible to give everyone back their money based on today's valuations because they don't have that much in assets.

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On 2/28/2024 at 7:33 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

for what it's worth, I saw the following on crypto youtube today. SIAP.

Fidelity in Canada is packaging their crypto ETFs within their other ETFs.

As these scenarios start to become more and more common, especially with retirement plans, this is when you have an automatic flow of funds popping into the market every payday. I imagine crypto in 401ks is still looking like 2026 or 27.

As an aside, when Canada shows "Global", they mainly mean the US.

fidelity - Copy.JPG

Another one. 

 

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On 3/4/2024 at 11:01 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Part of the massive ETF growth is due investors fleeing the Grayscale bitcoin ETF. The amount is impossible to fully calculate. If true then the new ETF growth may start to slow.

But you also have other factors coming into play

  • other ETF firms reportedly investigating the creation
  • moving towards ETF investors being allowed to borrow against the bitcoin ETF holdings
  • more and more investment firms recommending their investors put 1-5% into crypto

Another reason for ETF growth is because traditional trading firms smell opportunity and would love to be able to short crypto as well as go long.  Hard for them to short Spot BTC, much easier to short an ETF.

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17 minutes ago, Cum Rocket said:

I’m annoyed that UTIMCO isn’t on it. They already hold physical gold. 

I emailed UTIMCO in December inquiring about their gold holdings and was told by Adam Wright, "We divested our gold holdings several years ago."

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13 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I emailed UTIMCO in December inquiring about their gold holdings and was told by Adam Wright, "We divested our gold holdings several years ago."

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/The-Texas-Bullion-Depository-sold-as-a-gold-mine-16416032.php

Quote

When state lawmakers decided in 2015 that Texas needed to be the only state to have its own precious metals depository, supporters said there were plenty of reasons the project would be a gold mine.

The University of Texas/Texas A&M Investment Management Co., which handles the schools’ endowment, owned hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of gold as an investment, stored for a fee in a New York City vault. A state-owned depository “will repatriate $1 billion of gold bullion from the Federal Reserve in New York to Texas,” Gov. Greg Abbott said.

Residents, too, were clamoring for an independent-minded location they could trust with their valuables. “When I first presented this, to be honest with you, we got hundreds and hundreds of people from all over the world, really, who wanted to be able to put their gold in something that has the Texas banner above it,” said Rep. Giovanni Capriglione, R-Southlake, the bill’s author. “This doesn’t work in Wisconsin, it doesn’t work in Idaho.”

Best of all, because the state would find a private partner to build and own the physical depository, it would cost taxpayers nothing. The enterprise would even reap a big profit for Texas. “We estimate that we could raise tens of millions of dollars in fees,” Capriglione testified.

Lets check in the progress, lulz.

Quote

More than three years after the depository opened, none of those things has happened. Yet this year, state lawmakers quietly voted to let the state borrow millions of dollars to bail out a project created to fix a problem that didn’t exist and which they had vowed would cost nothing.

“It’s ridiculous,” said Sen. Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, one of only two senators to oppose the bill. “I don’t think the state of Texas should be in the commercial real estate business or the gold bullion business.”

The UT/A&M investment company liquidated its gold more than a year ago without moving any bullion back to Texas. A spokeswoman said the agency currently owns no precious metals and so has no need for storage. No other state entity has metal at the Texas depository.

 

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