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Posted

Texas is really a committee problem if there are no major upsets and Texas beats A&M and finishes fifth in the league.  Vandy and OU are head to head behind Texas but higher in the CFP rankings. You’ve also got the question of diversity of conference representation. There’s no way 6 are getting in, heck 5 is a stretch. Currently Texas is the 7th highest SEC team in the CFP rankings and 5th in the standings.  Shit the SEC only got 3 last year. 5, 6 or even 7? Pretty hard to see it. Not sure the “committee” is ready to call it that way. Maybe they should. 

Posted
13 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

you're alive!

i wondered how long it would take for you to surface

i have a question for you......

ensign peak advisors currently has 293 billion under management.....

has there been any talk of the first presidency going all in on nil?

Not sure where you get your info, funds under management are pure speculation. Let's say it is 200B+. You ever heard of the Parable of the Talents? We are good stewards of the resources entrusted to us. Deal with it. 

The current president of the church was formerly the president of BYU and supports BYU, but BYU athletics are self-funded and supported by generous donors. No church funds are used for athletics. We run our athletics in the black, unlike many in the Big 10 and elsewhere. We have a number of billionaires (mostly quiet about it) and lots of multiple-hundreds-of-millions millionaires that generously give and support.

You sound annoyed that BYU is ranked higher in both football and basketball than UT. 

Posted
13 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Proving that you dont belong in the field because you literally cant beat one of the weaker CFP teams in Tech, meanwhile Texas will be 2-2 against CFP teams with the only losses coming to the #1 and #2 teams in the country on the road. 

Tech barely lost to a very good ASU team and Tech was w/o their starting QB. They are at full strength now and have a nasty defense. They will be trouble in the CFP. 

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Posted (edited)

Texas just needs too much shit to happen in front of it - assuming we beat aggy.

#1-4 are in regardless of what happens this weekend. It's hard to see Tech missing so use them for the B12 placeholder.

ACC and G5 get another 2 in. Notre Dame is going to pile-drive Stanford so put them in. 

Would Texas jump Oregon or Ole Miss if those teams lost? Seems like too many spots to make up and we'd be down in the loss column still. 

That leaves 2 spots for #8-16 - not including ND. (I don't think anyone below Texas has a chance for an at-large unless some really wild shit happens).

That's 2 spots for EIGHT teams. I don't see tOSU losing this season so cross Michigan off. 

Let's assume Texas jumps Utah (as we fucking should). Scratch them off.

I'm not sure Texas jumps Miami if the Canes get a road win against ranked Pitt. I do think that Texas would jump both OU and Alabama if either of those teams lost. Texas obviously jumps Vandy if Tenn wins and Tenn wouldn't jump Texas. 

So say Vandy and Miami both lose (which is very possible). Texas would STILL need two of three of Bama, OU and BYU to drop a game. 

I don't know what the odds are on that parlay but it is fucking slim. That said - IF that happens (it's not going to) it's hard to see Texas not getting the last spot.

Beat aggy and then start cleaning shit up in the offseason. At the end of the day the Florida loss fucked us and that's fair. You want to make the field, you have to win games like that. 

Edited by ztejas
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Posted

So on Friday...  best case CFP scenario for HORNS 🤘

  • UGA blowout win 
  • UTAH loss
  • TEXAS solid win
Quote

Tried to grab info on all games that might influence CFP

Friday, November 28, 2025

  • 7MISS     @  MSST      11:00 AM
  • 13UTAH   @  KU          11:00 AM
  • 4UGA      @  23GT       2:30 PM
  • TEM        @  UNT         2:30 PM
  • 2 IU         @  PUR         6:30 PM
  • 3TA&M    @  16TEX     6:30 PM

Saturday, November 29, 2025

  • 1OSU      @  15MICH         11:00 AM
  • 5TTU      @  WVU             11:00 AM
  • 12MIA     @  22PITT         11:00 AM
  • UCF        @  11BYU           12:00 PM
  • 6ORE      @  WASH            2:30 PM
  • LSU        @  8OU               2:30 PM
  • 14VAN    @  19TENN         2:30 PM
  • JMU       @  CCU               2:45 PM
  • VT          @  18UVA            6:00 PM
  • 10ALA     @  AUB               6:30 PM
  • CLT         @  24TULN        6:30 PM
  • UCLA      @  17USC           6:30 PM
  • 21SMU    @  CAL               7:00 PM
  • 9ND        @  STAN             9:30 PM

 

Posted
1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Texas just needs too much shit to happen in front of it - assuming we beat aggy.

#1-4 are in regardless of what happens this weekend. It's hard to see Tech missing so use them for the B12 placeholder.

ACC and G5 get another 2 in. Notre Dame is going to pile-drive Stanford so put them in. 

Would Texas jump Oregon or Ole Miss if those teams lost? Seems like too many spots to make up and we'd be down in the loss column still. 

That leaves 2 spots for #8-16 - not including ND. (I don't think anyone below Texas has a chance for an at-large unless some really wild shit happens).

That's 2 spots for EIGHT teams. I don't see tOSU losing this season so cross Michigan off. 

Let's assume Texas jumps Utah (as we fucking should). Scratch them off.

I'm not sure Texas jumps Miami if the Canes get a road win against ranked Pitt. I do think that Texas would jump both OU and Alabama if either of those teams lost. Texas obviously jumps Vandy if Tenn wins and Tenn wouldn't jump Texas. 

So say Vandy and Miami both lose (which is very possible). Texas would STILL need two of three of Bama, OU and BYU to drop a game. 

I don't know what the odds are on that parlay but it is fucking slim. That said - IF that happens (it's not going to) it's hard to see Texas not getting the last spot.

Beat aggy and then start cleaning shit up in the offseason. At the end of the day the Florida loss fucked us and that's fair. You want to make the field, you have to win games like that. 

This is my assessment for the Ohio state loss keeps us out people. I don't think the scenario is that much different. Mid season wtf loss and late blowout against top opponent is appropriately ranked 16

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Posted
9 hours ago, Crockett said:

Tech barely lost to a very good ASU team and Tech was w/o their starting QB. They are at full strength now and have a nasty defense. They will be trouble in the CFP. 

The championship will be won by one of 3 teams. OSU, UGA, or Bama. 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

I think if we win tonight, wins by Ohio St and Auburn (good luck with that) are what we need to get us in

I think a loss for OU is needed if Bama wins. Also need Vandy to lose to Tenn (I dont have faith they will put us in front of them). The conversation needs to be between a 3 loss Texas and 1 loss BYU that loses to Tech again in the Big 12 title game. Both Bama and OU losing would put us in without the need for any beauty pageant.

Posted
On 11/27/2025 at 6:05 PM, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You will get nor argument from me on ND. A 3 loss Texas should be ahead of those clowns. In fact, I dont think ND should even get a spot until they join a conference. 

What about a 4 loss Texas?

Posted (edited)

Games that might affect CFP... 

Saturday, November 29, 2025

  • 1OSU      @  15MICH         11:00 AM
  • 5TTU      @  WVU             11:00 AM
  • 12MIA     @  22PITT         11:00 AM
  • UCF        @  11BYU           12:00 PM
  • 6ORE      @  WASH            2:30 PM
  • LSU        @  8OU               2:30 PM
  • 14VAN    @  19TENN         2:30 PM
  • JMU       @  CCU               2:45 PM
  • VT          @  18UVA            6:00 PM
  • 10ALA     @  AUB               6:30 PM
  • CLT         @  24TULN        6:30 PM
  • UCLA      @  17USC           6:30 PM
  • 21SMU    @  CAL               7:00 PM
  • 9ND        @  STAN             9:30 PM
  •  
Quote

CFP Top 25

IMG_20251128_224036.thumb.jpg.b491eb556f68bdef90b41ae37dcf6f68.jpg

 

Edited by LTtxfan
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

 

I listened to him on the radio on the way home form the game. He unequivocally said we CHOSE to play OSU and we 100% should not be penalized for playing the best teams and the resume comparisons shouldnt just look at the losses but the entire resume. He went on to say we beat 3 top 10 teams and played 5 total with the two losses coming on the road to top 5 competition. He then said "I know everyone is going to wave their arms and say BUT what about the Florida loss. Well, if we hadnt scheduled Ohio State we would have two losses and this wouldnt even be a discussion. So I find that argument to be disingenuous." 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Is he talking into a mirror?  

1. someone had absolute control over Texas wins/ losses.  Steve Sarkisian.

2.  Flipside of that and better argument is Texas' record against the top teams in the SEC, as well as teams in CFP consideration.  The eye test says they belong, but the losses matter too.  

 

I won't be pissed if they're in.  I won't be pissed if they're out.

Edited by Iceman
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Posted (edited)

(Brad Crawford) Bowl projections: Miami shines as bubble team in focus, Texas joins College Football Playoff discussion

Quote

For one final time during the regular season, we've updated our bowl game and College Football Playoff projections coming out of rivalry weekend ahead of the selection committee's penultimate top 25 rankings on Tuesday. This will be a telling poll from the committee for teams on the bubble, including BYU, Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas, among others. Miami won its fourth straight game in convincing fashion at Pittsburgh to end with season and leave the committee with something to think about during deliberations. And for Texas, no team during rivalry weekend managed a more emphatic victory after the Longhorns squashed Texas A&M's unbeaten season.

The way we see it, the following teams are playoff locks entering conference championship weekend: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon and Ole Miss. Two other seeds are going to the ACC and Group of Five winners, which leaves four at-large spots that are up for debate entering Tuesday night. Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama were ranked in the Nos. 8, 9 and 10 spots last week, while BYU and Miami were essentially placeholders at Nos. 11 and 12. Those seeds will go to the final two conference champions, leaving the No. 10 seed to receive the final, coveted at-large selection.

The great Texas debate

The win over Texas A&M gave the Longhorns three victories this season over opponents ranked inside the current top 15 of the playoff rankings, but the other side to that equation? The losses. While the committee could justify putting Texas as the first three-loss, at-large team to ever make the field, who the Longhorns would replace as a result is the bigger dilemma. Then, there's the game control metric. The Longhorns suffered a 25-point loss at Georgia this month and lost to a 3-9 Florida team in October whose only win since came against Mississippi State, a team Texas beat after falling behind by 17 points in the fourth quarter. Kentucky took the Longhorns to overtime, while Arkansas piled up 512 yards of total offense and 37 points against Texas last week. The Razorbacks finished 2-10 and winless in SEC play this season.

And what will be particularly difficult to swallow for the Longhorns is the fact there's potentially four programs from the state of Texas that will make the field without one of them being college football's preseason No. 1. Elsewhere, more than a dozen teams with five wins entering Saturday needed a victory to reach bowl eligibility, and only seven managed to do so: Penn State, Kansas State, Army, Texas State, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Georgia Southern and Washington State. We're expecting Missouri State (7-5) and Delaware (6-6) to fill the final two spots after transitioning from FCS this season. Here's a glance at how we see the final 12-team CFP bracket unfolding next month coming out of rivalry weekend:

College Football Playoff 

Quarterfinals 

Date Game / Location Projection

Jan. 1 

Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.

(1) Ohio State vs. (8/9) Winner

Jan. 1 

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, La.

(2) Georgia vs. (7/10) Winner

Jan. 1 

Orange Bowl
Miami, Fla.

(3) Indiana vs. (6/11) Winner

Dec. 31 

Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas

(4) Texas Tech vs. (5/12) Winner

First round

Date  Location Projection Winner faces

Dec. 19 or 20

Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Norman, Okla.

(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Notre Dame (1) Ohio State

Dec. 19 or 20

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, Miss.

(7) Ole Miss vs. (10) Alabama (2) Georgia

Dec. 19 or 20

Autzen Stadium
Eugene, Ore.

(6) Oregon vs. (11) Virginia (3) Indiana

Dec. 19 or 20

Kyle Field
College Station, Texas

(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) North Texas (4) Texas Tech

 

Edited by satyanash
Posted

Texas needs to be 12 after this week. Ahead of Utah and Miami and Vandy. That’s a fair ranking and values strength of schedule and quality of wins and takes into account 3 losses. If Georgia batters bama and tech beats byu  the committee could justifiably move us up to 10 and everyone would/should be fine with that. If that doesn’t happen then at least they can say OOC losses to really quality teams aren’t disproportionately harmful. 
if we are behind Utah fuck that shit- they’ve beaten nobody and what are we even doing. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Texas needs to be 12 after this week. Ahead of Utah and Miami and Vandy. That’s a fair ranking and values strength of schedule and quality of wins and takes into account 3 losses. If Georgia batters bama and tech beats byu  the committee could justifiably move us up to 10 and everyone would/should be fine with that. If that doesn’t happen then at least they can say OOC losses to really quality teams aren’t disproportionately harmful. 
if we are behind Utah fuck that shit- they’ve beaten nobody and what are we even doing. 

And when that doesn't happen, we'll be here for you.

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Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

And when that doesn't happen, we'll be here for you.

I’m not saying it will. Go ahead and put us at 15. Whatever. It will do incredible long term harm to the sport. September can be as meaningless in CFB as exhibition season in the NFL. If 9-3 Texas is behind 10-2 Utah who has zero quality wins then there is beyond zero reason to ever play an OOC team harder than Rutgers or Stanford or Purdue. That the world anyone wants to live in? 

Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m not saying it will. Go ahead and put us at 15. Whatever. It will do incredible long term harm to the sport. September can be as meaningless in CFB as exhibition season in the NFL. If 9-3 Texas is behind 10-2 Utah who has zero quality wins then there is beyond zero reason to ever play an OOC team harder than Rutgers or Stanford or Purdue. That the world anyone wants to live in? 

Which is why the optimal system is one in which quality wins and strength of schedule do not matter in the slightest.

Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m not saying it will. Go ahead and put us at 15. Whatever. It will do incredible long term harm to the sport. September can be as meaningless in CFB as exhibition season in the NFL. If 9-3 Texas is behind 10-2 Utah who has zero quality wins then there is beyond zero reason to ever play an OOC team harder than Rutgers or Stanford or Purdue. That the world anyone wants to live in? 

If Texas isn't in the playoffs, it isn't because they're being punished for losing to Ohio State.  It's because they lost to Florida.

FWIW, I think Ole Miss seems to be getting a pass.  They've got a win over Oklahoma.  So does Texas.  The only other winning teams they've played all year are Tulane and LSU, except they seem to still be getting big win credit for LSU like they were still 5 and not 7-5.  BYU has a better resume than Ole Miss does, but was last in the 11 spot, which is functionally first team out.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Which is why the optimal system is one in which quality wins and strength of schedule do not matter in the slightest.

How do you do that with 132 teams and only 12 or 13 outcomes. 
if the idea of college football playoffs is to collect all the teams that could plausibly win a title Texas 3-2 record with more quality wins than any team in college football needs to be in. There’s no conceivable argument against it. 
if it’s to reward good seasons with people that played well at their level then cool- let’s just say that too. I’m fine with either way. Just be clear that the deal is to try to get to 11-1 or 10-2 and nothing else matters and anyone who doesn’t plan accordingly is a moron who should be mocked and ridiculed. Either way is fine. 
if you are saying relegate the chuckle fucks of college football so that you can get to 32 programs or something that can play enough games to determine likely who the best is like the NFL that’s fine too. 

Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

How do you do that with 132 teams and only 12 or 13 outcomes. 
if the idea of college football playoffs is to collect all the teams that could plausibly win a title Texas 3-2 record with more quality wins than any team in college football needs to be in. There’s no conceivable argument against it. 
if it’s to reward good seasons with people that played well at their level then cool- let’s just say that too. I’m fine with either way. Just be clear that the deal is to try to get to 11-1 or 10-2 and nothing else matters and anyone who doesn’t plan accordingly is a moron who should be mocked and ridiculed. Either way is fine. 
if you are saying relegate the chuckle fucks of college football so that you can get to 32 programs or something that can play enough games to determine likely who the best is like the NFL that’s fine too. 

Stop including 132 for one thing. 64 at the most. 

Then figure out automatic qualification.

Posted
2 minutes ago, wablty said:

If Texas isn't in the playoffs, it isn't because they're being punished for losing to Ohio State.  It's because they lost to Florida.

FWIW, I think Ole Miss seems to be getting a pass.  They've got a win over Oklahoma.  So does Texas.  The only other winning teams they've played all year are Tulane and LSU, except they seem to still be getting big win credit for LSU like they were still 5 and not 7-5.  BYU has a better resume than Ole Miss does, but was last in the 11 spot, which is functionally first team out.

That’s functionally not true. If we played Purdue instead of Ohio state we would 100% be in. Like- no doubt about it. Ahead of OU and Vandy and Utah and Miami and maybe Domers. Getting ready for a home playoff game. Sure- same is true for Florida but fuck man- Sark said it and everybody in the world nodded along and said true except the densest of our fans. Florida was made to be on our schedule and OSU was a choice. 
but yeah- Ole Miss probably not good. When they get smoked in the playoffs the narrative will be it was about Kiffin moving on as opposed to them sort of not being great. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s functionally not true. If we played Purdue instead of Ohio state we would 100% be in. Like- no doubt about it. Ahead of OU and Vandy and Utah and Miami and maybe Domers. Getting ready for a home playoff game. Sure- same is true for Florida but fuck man- Sark said it and everybody in the world nodded along and said true except the densest of our fans. Florida was made to be on our schedule and OSU was a choice. 
but yeah- Ole Miss probably not good. When they get smoked in the playoffs the narrative will be it was about Kiffin moving on as opposed to them sort of not being great. 

It's also 100% true that we'd be in if we had beaten Florida, a team that was actually on our schedule, unlike Purdue.

Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, TexasCPA said:

I can see Texas being ranked 12 this week, but Alabama is not getting left out of the playoffs for losing the CCG. 

Nor should they be.

If losing a CCG can cost you your playoff spot, then CCG's should die faster than big OOC games.

Edited by TexArcher
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Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Stop including 132 for one thing. 64 at the most. 

Then figure out automatic qualification.

64 with 12 data points is too unwieldy. You probably have to get to 36 or 40 tops to be good with 8 or 12 teams. 
 

I’d be absolutely fine with SEC plus Domers, OSU, Michigan, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, Nebraska, Iowa, MN, Texh, BYU, Utah, AZ, ASU, TCU, SMU, FSU, Clemson, Pitt, Miami, UNC, VA, VA Tech, Boise, Louisville 

add 4 for 48 or subtract 4 for 40 and that’s probably about as big as you can get and still keep it manageable with 12 or 13 data points. 

Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

64 with 12 data points is too unwieldy. You probably have to get to 36 or 40 tops to be good with 8 or 12 teams. 
 

I’d be absolutely fine with SEC plus Domers, OSU, Michigan, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, Nebraska, Iowa, MN, Texh, BYU, Utah, AZ, ASU, TCU, SMU, FSU, Clemson, Pitt, Miami, UNC, VA, VA Tech, Boise, Louisville 

add 4 for 48 or subtract 4 for 40 and that’s probably about as big as you can get and still keep it manageable with 12 or 13 data points. 

No data points.

Professional sports have it figured out, so figure it out.

Posted
4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's also 100% true that we'd be in if we had beaten Florida, a team that was actually on our schedule, unlike Purdue.

It’s like you are trying to not understand. One we control and the other we don’t. 

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Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

No data points.

Professional sports have it figured out, so figure it out.

They all have data points dude. Those data points are the standings. They don’t end the season after 4 games or have 100 teams because then it wouldn’t work. Your data points (games) have to match the number of teams in the league in a sensible manner or it’s GIGO or a beauty contest. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They all have data points dude. Those data points are the standings. They don’t end the season after 4 games or have 100 teams because then it wouldn’t work. Your data points (games) have to match the number of teams in the league in a sensible manner or it’s GIGO or a beauty contest. 

Reduce the number of teams bigly and figure it out. 

Or, and this is where it's probably going, expand to 24 like FCS.

Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

I understand that it's irrelevant to this year.

For us as in what happened? Sure.  The committee has a say in how they decide to rank and explain what matters and what the rules of the road are going forward/ and that’s not finished yet. 
Imagine a world where Georgia and Ohio State romp next weekend and byu eked out a win v tech. A completely plausible ranking would be:

1) OSU, 2) Georgia, 3) Aggy 4) Oregon… 7) Oklahoma. If you split with 4 of the top 7 and have a win against another top 12 team and a loss against something like the 40th best team (that’s their computer metrics) with all the losses on the road and you can’t get in then why would anyone ever do anything remotely interesting in non con. And sure- you can’t design a system that’s better with like 40 or 48 teams but that’s not particularly likely to happen in the real world- while the committee can decide not to do stupid shit like put Utah with no good wins ahead and Texas and that can go a long way to stabilizing the sport and takes no effort. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Reduce the number of teams bigly and figure it out. 

Or, and this is where it's probably going, expand to 24 like FCS.

If you want to keep it inclusive and reward teams that all have no chance of winning it all for having good seasons at their level I love that idea. Byes for top 8.  9-24 second week of December (no conference championship games first week of December- byes for all) 1-16 3rd week  of December all at higher seed. 1-8 4th week of December- all at higher seeds.  1-4 New Year’s Day ish at neutral site locations. Championship game at neutral site something like January 12th. 
Fans win not having to pay shitloads to travel to a bunch of games. Everyone gets included that can win a title. Everyone gets rewarded for doing well against their level of competition.
Make brackets flexible so 1 always plays the worst remaining team, 2 second worst remaining team and so on and you will have a reward and teams will care instead of punting regular season games.
Or- the committee could not be dumb and we wouldn’t have to do reduced fixes. But the 1-24 seems like fun and would solve all problems associated. If you did it hone field it even solves the  fan hassle problem. 
players are getting paid now- don’t care about too many games for a couple of the last teams. 

Posted

The committee should be asked one question:

How and why did you select OU, who lost to a Texas and finished behind Texas in the conference standings?

Two of OU’s “signature” wins were watered down yesterday, and each of Texas’ wins and also its losses were “justified” (for lack of a better word. 

Oh well…if this means the keep dipshit Vennebles for the foreseeable future then it might be worth it

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