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Posted

That's a solid guess.  Committee will want to put Oregon 5 based on what we've seen, but that will mess up first round matchups.

Posted
3 hours ago, Dignan said:

Yeah, we aren’t gonna be in. No one ahead of us that we needed to lose lost. So, I think we will be matched up with the next best team that doesn’t make it. Texas v Michigan maybe? USC? Not Vandy again.

Yep. Michigan.  Gonna be so awesome we get to play a hard OOC Bowl Game!  Helmet school blue blood.  Gonna be great!  Will be so meaningful and we will show we aren't pussies.

Posted (edited)

I think our loss to OSU should carry the same weight as a loss to UGA in the title game. Mix that with the fact that we beat a common opponent that Bama lost to (OU) and the fact that we will have 3 top 10 wins (and road losses to the likely #1 and #2 overall teams). I could see an argument for us supplanting Bama if they lose convincingly to UGA. Will it happen or will we be positioned for that to occur? Probably not. 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
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Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

Yep. Michigan.  Gonna be so awesome we get to play a hard OOC Bowl Game!  Helmet school blue blood.  Gonna be great!  Will be so meaningful and we will show we aren't pussies.

I mean- yeah in a bowl game you should always want to play the best and most fun team possible since at the end of the day it really doesn’t fucking matter. 
I’d also be happy to play BYU (if we did that I’d really want to be focused and best then by 50 to prove a point. 
wouldn’t care for Miami. USC, be fine. We owe Iowa a shit pounding. We owe Washington a buttfucking. I’d be fine with Utah as well. Michigan seems like the biggest scalp we could get so I’d be in favor of that. Only downside is we’ve played them 2 years ago and have them 2 years from now so it’s not a special game. BYU we played recently. Eh I have no other team I’m super fired up to play so Michigan works. 

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Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- yeah in a bowl game you should always want to play the best and most fun team possible since at the end of the day it really doesn’t fucking matter. 
I’d also be happy to play BYU (if we did that I’d really want to be focused and best then by 50 to prove a point. 
wouldn’t care for Miami. USC, be fine. We owe Iowa a shit pounding. We owe Washington a buttfucking. I’d be fine with Utah as well. Michigan seems like the biggest scalp we could get so I’d be in favor of that. Only downside is we’ve played them 2 years ago and have them 2 years from now so it’s not a special game. BYU we played recently. Eh I have no other team I’m super fired up to play so Michigan works. 

yes, no one cares and with so many players sitting out now it doesn't really tell you much.

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Posted
1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

If Duke wins the ACC and makes it in there will be tweaks to the CFP. At a minimum the ACC will change their tiebreaker rules. 
 

This is not he game the league wanted. 

With so many schedules being so fucked up I would celebrate the tie breaker being rank in the CFP poll. 
we’d have Georgia and Ole Miss in the SEC and Miami and VA in the ACC.  No need for a tie breaker in the Big 12 or Big 10 I don’t believe. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I think our loss to OSU should carry the same weight as a loss to UGA in the title game. Mix that with the fact that we beat a common opponent that Bama lost to (OU) and the fact that we will have 5 top 10 wins. I could see an argument for us supplanting Bama if they lose convincingly to UGA. Will it happen or will we be positioned for that to occur? Probably not. 

This is the only remaining path to a playoff birth. If Alabama gets embarrassed, the chatter will be that we also got embarrassed by Georgia. It may boil down to who the SEC wants in more.

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Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

yes, no one cares and with so many players sitting out now it doesn't really tell you much.

And you want to play the best team possible because of you lose that’s what you say and if you win you ignore all that and say- hey we best “________” to end the year which is cool. 

Posted
14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Lulz

 

The first four out is funny.  like this is the NCAA tourney with 64 teams and a bunch of games left to be played.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

With so many schedules being so fucked up I would celebrate the tie breaker being rank in the CFP poll. 
we’d have Georgia and Ole Miss in the SEC and Miami and VA in the ACC.  No need for a tie breaker in the Big 12 or Big 10 I don’t believe. 

Yeah the CFP ranking as the second tiebreaker is being floated around as an ACC solution. 

Posted
Just now, LordNeckbeard said:

This is the only remaining path to a playoff birth. If Alabama gets embarrassed, the chatter will be that we also got embarrassed by Georgia. It may boil down to who the SEC wants in more.

We didnt get embarrassed by UGA, we just lost. It was a 1 score game in the 4th quarter despite 3 quarters of ref fucking. And they had to convert two fourth downs and get an onside kick to put us away. The scoreline was bad but we werent "embarassed".  

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Posted
9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Yep. Michigan.  Gonna be so awesome we get to play a hard OOC Bowl Game!  Helmet school blue blood.  Gonna be great!  Will be so meaningful and we will show we aren't pussies.

It'll be interesting to see how many of our NFL-eligible players sit this one out. Ant Hill and who else?

Posted
Just now, LordNeckbeard said:

This is the only remaining path to a playoff birth. If Alabama gets embarrassed, the chatter will be that we also got embarrassed by Georgia. It may boil down to who the SEC wants in more.

Probably also help if they got injured or something. And if OSU dominates Indiana and BYU gets smoked by Tech. There’s at least room for a conversation.  It we have to be above Utah and Vandy and probably Miami for that conversation to happen. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And you want to play the best team possible because of you lose that’s what you say and if you win you ignore all that and say- hey we best “________” to end the year which is cool. 

eh, the cool factor on bowl games is pretty much gone regardless of outcome.

Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

The first four out is funny.  like this is the NCAA tourney with 64 teams and a bunch of games left to be played.

We need a play-in game! Expand the playoffs to 16, stat!

Posted
Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

Yeah the CFP ranking as the second tiebreaker is being floated around as an ACC solution. 

To be fair I meant after head to head in a two way situation or 3 way situation where all teams played each other. 

Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Probably also help if they got injured or something. And if OSU dominates Indiana and BYU gets smoked by Tech. There’s at least room for a conversation.  It we have to be above Utah and Vandy and probably Miami for that conversation to happen. 

Correct. We need to be positioned in front of Vandy and Utah at minimum. Ic ould see us jumping Miami with a quality of loss argument based on UGA ascending to the 2 seed and winning the SEC. But we cannot be behind Utah or Vandy. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

eh, the cool factor on bowl games is pretty much gone regardless of outcome.

I can tell myself into being happy if Texas beats a blue blood but yeah- that’s pretty much true. 

Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I can tell myself into being happy if Texas beats a blue blood but yeah- that’s pretty much true. 

Bowl games don't matter, and half of each team probably won't play.  The ones that do play will be half assing it since it's more of an exhibition than it even used to be.  

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Posted
3 hours ago, horn4life said:

IF you really do not want Big games then call the AD and have them very publicly start reneging agreements to play powerful teams in non-con.  But as much as it stings we got dealt a tougher schedule than most, and it was timed in a way that was markedly different from the majority of the SEC.  We chose to do this sort of schedule because it is a pathway to the Championship series, but execution is key.  And stubbing our toe at Florida was a really bad stub.  Left us limping through Kentucky and Miss State, edging out OT wins vs those powerhouses.  We played a fantastic second half versus A&M.  And I do believe at this point in time, we are more dangerous than half the teams ranked above us.

But fuck, we beat a shitty bad Florida team, and this whole conversation is moot.  The fact we were also grossly overhyped to start the season made the focus on our early season struggles even more noticeable.  Will Texas be punished in the rankings for losing to Ohio State?  Ultimately the answer is yes.  So now the question for our AD is do you schedule great games to make buying season tickets amazing occasionally?  Or do you go with a doormat lineup you still pay top dollar for, and have a better chance to make an expanded playoff?

My vote is to still play the big OOC opponents.  Because if you are honest, did it hurt Ohio State this season? We are a good team, not a great team this year.  The loss to Florida was inexcusable, but so were OT victories vs Miss State and Kentucky!  All of those games were games where we should have been giving second string players reps to gain experience in the second half. Instead we barely survived, after starting off the season with a #1 ranking in some polls.  That is fucking embarrassing.  We looked great against Ohio State and not so good for most of the season.  In the end it is a style point and win/loss evaluation.  It's NOT a looking at each team and saying who are the scariest teams to play in college football at this point in time?  We win the games we should have, and we are in.  

So do you prefer watching Ohio State or Sam Houston State?  Is the risk versus reward there or not?  In the end it's a question our AD has to answer.  

I prefer playing tOSU in the playoffs

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Posted
Just now, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Bowl games don't matter, and half of each team probably won't play.  The ones that do play will be half assing it since it's more of an exhibition than it even used to be.  

I dont think our team will half ass it. I have seen nothing but heart and grit out of this squad this year. I expect a full throttle performance from them. This team has really come of age and has good leadership developing. 

Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Correct. We need to be positioned in front of Vandy and Utah at minimum. Ic ould see us jumping Miami with a quality of loss argument based on UGA ascending to the 2 seed and winning the SEC. But we cannot be behind Utah or Vandy. 

we won't be. since we torched the greatest aggy team of all time, they will actually start looking at their schedule, the ref fucking v ND and magic....aggy just wasn't that good.

we have a 3 in the loss column, none of the rest of this matters.

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Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

we won't be. since we torched the greatest aggy team of all time, they will actually start looking at their schedule, the ref fucking v ND and magic....aggy just wasn't that good.

we have a 3 in the loss column, none of the rest of this matters.

Everyone we beat is actually shit. I forgot the golden rule of the committee.

Posted

 

1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Bowl games don't matter, and half of each team probably won't play.  The ones that do play will be half assing it since it's more of an exhibition than it even used to be.  

Yep. 10-12 portal guys will sit out as well ask 7-9 NFL draft hopefuls. Better keep the gameday program handy to find out who #47 is playing corner.

Posted
1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Bowl games don't matter, and half of each team probably won't play.  The ones that do play will be half assing it since it's more of an exhibition than it even used to be.  

Nowadays, bowls are only good for additional practices and prepping for next year. I'll watch the Citrus Bowl, but I should probably stop gambling on bowl games. Picking the winners ATS is an exercise in futility.

Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Correct. We need to be positioned in front of Vandy and Utah at minimum. Ic ould see us jumping Miami with a quality of loss argument based on UGA ascending to the 2 seed and winning the SEC. But we cannot be behind Utah or Vandy. 

If we are ahead of Utah and Vandy and it plays out exactly the way I said with big OSU, Georgia and Texas tech wins I think there’s a lot of room for TV to get involved and people to change their minds. 
nobody went to bed after the 2023 conference championship in games thinking it was going to be Texas and bama but eventually people wanted to the idea and said that might make sense. The same thing could absolutely happen this weekend. It would have to really break right (and having CDC call Disney and ask them how much they like upcoming Texas v Ohio state, Michigan and domer games on the OOC schedule probably wouldn’t hurt). That *should* be enough to get us over Miami.  Then  it becomes Bama or Texas. There’s lots of reasons for Texas over Bama with Arch and Sark and resume etc. I’d expect it to be Bama but wouldn’t be shocked if it was otherwise. It would be funny if Sankey said Texas and Bama were more important to the future of the conference and elbowed OU out. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I can tell myself into being happy if Texas beats a blue blood but yeah- that’s pretty much true. 

sure I will like a win more than a loss mainly for historical stuff - all time wins, bowl wins all time, and record v a particular team like Michigan but other than that whatever.

Posted
1 hour ago, mdmost said:

This is what Sankey needs to push for. Everyone should have the same scheduling. We're now there on conference games. It needs to be the same for P4 requirements in OOC. Indiana should not be allowed 3 gimmies. 

The NCAA should mandate the top 4 teams in the Big 10 from the previous season have to play each other in the following season due to the league being ridiculously top heavy. It's completely unbalanced compared to the SEC. Anyone who says "well OSU took a chance and played us" needs to look at OSU's schedule. Outside of Michigan, whose best win was Nebraska, Texas is the really only legitimate team they played all year. They had a conference schedule cake walk to the Big 10 title game. We have no idea how good they actually are until they get Indiana in a week and then someone like Georgia in the playoffs. 

 

Screenshot_20251130_114110_Firefox Focus.jpg

Posted

Something to put into the “no help” file, UVA lost to NCSt in week 2, but it was non conference due to some scheduling weirdness with the expanded conference. If that was counted as a conference loss, Miami would have been in the conference championship.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Bowl games don't matter, and half of each team probably won't play.  The ones that do play will be half assing it since it's more of an exhibition than it even used to be.  

Sure. All completely true. Doesn’t mean I can’t talk myself into being happy still. Rather have that than playing MN or someone like that in a bowl. 
Nebraska might be fun just to make them mad for old times sake. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Tech will be ecstatic with this bracket. 1st Round bye and a 2nd round game against Tulane or a coachless Ole Miss? The stars are aligning for a run.

Image

The fact the bracket doesn’t reseed is the dumbest shit in the world. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, DFW Horn said:

Nowadays, bowls are only good for additional practices and prepping for next year. I'll watch the Citrus Bowl, but I should probably stop gambling on bowl games. Picking the winners ATS is an exercise in futility.

i don't gamble but the only way I'd probably bet is if one starting QB is out and the opposing starting QB is playing.

Posted
4 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Maybe we go to nfl style scheduling?   I love early marquee games but I love the playoffs more.  We don’t have to schedule Maine or the citadel but maybe a team like Rutgers or Minnesota?

 

not all conferences are created equal.   That being said I would be pissed if i were a bama or ou fan and got jumped by three loss texas

I think we should keep playing the OSUs of the world, like the Oklahoma and Oregon variety.  

Tuesday it will be revealed that the SEC has 7 of the top 14 teams.  This isnt beating #3 Pedo  that ends up 6-6.  This is end of season, most data points available rankings.   We went 3-1 against that field.

This post got entirely too long so I spoilered  the rest

 

Spoiler

if You’re going to end up playing 3-4 playoffs teams in the regular season why would you want the additional wear and tear and potential loss carried by playing even more playoff teams before the actual playoffs?  If everyone was doing it, ok, sure.  But they are not, a lot are only playing 1 or 2 and that gives them a strong advantage when losses are the far and away #1 factor in determining playoff inclusion.  
 

That’s why a lot of people are for dumping playoff teams in OOC, there’s no added value to beating tOSU instead of the OSU in mobilhoma.   The old beauty pageant days are over, we get more than enough marquee matchups in conference.  it’s all about the loss column.  Look at our schedule going forward, it’s not a “we are TEXAS” thing it’s a we bring eyeballs thing so the SEC is never giving us Aggies schedule.  We simply offer them far more top rated games.

 If you want to keep getting a good share of the best players you better be making the playoffs regularly so you can keep getting those best players.  Spending matters but there will be limits to keep it balanced to prevent someone going full NY Yankees every year.

think it’s kinda funny that we joined the SEC in part to get all the advantages of the SEC hype which was proved out through 13 of the 20 MNCs prior to us joining.  Now we are going to 9 games and a required P4 OOC.  So now it’s the B1G with the advantage,not requiring P4 OOC (hello Indiana) and more dilution with shitty teams allowing their top teams to avoid one another in season.

I think we should schedule one of our big conference games in the first few weeks to let their networks have an early big game (and if you lose, well it’s always better to lose early) and move a tuneup game near the end.  We are going to 9 games instead of 8 so let’s embrace the other SEC method of controlling the narrative.  
 

Posted
1 minute ago, DFW Horn said:

Tech will be ecstatic with this bracket. 1st Round bye and a 2nd round game against Tulane or a coachless Ole Miss? The stars are aligning for a run.

Image

I think I’d still like Ole Miss in that game. Weis is no stiff, and Golden has always had complete control of the defense. There’s also reports that Lane is fighting to coach Ole Miss in the playoffs.

Regardless, they’d have a warm up/get right game against Tulane before Tech. 

Posted
1 hour ago, JBJ said:

I think the selection process is better.  4 was better than 12.  6 or 8 is probably the sweet spot.

Bowl games are undoubtedly worse and probably dying, which is honestly worse than the conference stacking.

8 is perfect. 

And bowl games are going to getting better than the 4 team era2024-ESPN-Events-College-Bowl-Season-Viewership-v8-1536x864.thumb.png.cae53a5b70bf80164a42d9dc4ddb86fb.png

 

Posted

My CFB Predictor - "Most deserving", if you will.

Strength of Record - Power Ranking - Reliability of Power Ranking (ranked)

That third column is a math thing, not a team thing.  It's a measure of how possible it even is to power rank / eyetest your team based on the quality of matchups played over the season.  It's kind of what I'm wanting to show given this new era of football, conference size, and the concentration of talent.  The top 6 Power teams are all 100+ in reliability, and I really think we are flying blind into the playoffs this year more than others.

image.png.9baa2a98d238795ac9bd45413f5af5f4.png
 

We are also in an era of football where the difficulty of winning the ACC is closer to the American than it is to the SEC.
image.png.7f15a40e517b8d047699cb9b1df8c4fb.png

 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Or yet another way, their only loss in conference was to a team with 6 conference wins. That means the teams they beat in conference had a combined 13 conference wins. For 7 teams. 

 

*12 conference wins for 7 reams

4-4, 3-5, 2-6, 1-7, 1-7, 1-7, 0-8

Posted
16 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Well no three loss team has made it in the playoffs. It was a Bridge too far. We had to beat Georgia. It sucks. Watching three teams we BEAT punch their ticket.

This is worst part. Although, I think only two of the three will make it. Vandy, imo, isn't making it. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

My CFB Predictor - "Most deserving", if you will.

Strength of Record - Power Ranking - Reliability of Power Ranking (ranked)

That third column is a math thing, not a team thing.  It's a measure of how possible it even is to power rank / eyetest your team based on the quality of matchups played over the season.  It's kind of what I'm wanting to show given this new era of football, conference size, and the concentration of talent.  The top 6 Power teams are all 100+ in reliability, and I really think we are flying blind into the playoffs this year more than others.

image.png.9baa2a98d238795ac9bd45413f5af5f4.png
 

We are also in an era of football where the difficulty of winning the ACC is closer to the American than it is to the SEC.
image.png.7f15a40e517b8d047699cb9b1df8c4fb.png

 

Can I get some axes on that third graph?

Posted
4 minutes ago, Stringer said:

Something to put into the “no help” file, UVA lost to NCSt in week 2, but it was non conference due to some scheduling weirdness with the expanded conference. If that was counted as a conference loss, Miami would have been in the conference championship.

my thing on Miami v us is they couldn't even get in the champ game in the absolute worst, by far, P4 conference.  they have one feather in their cap, ND.

 

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