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  • 2019 Football Season Game Prediction Contest


    Huckleberry

    What's up, assholes? Welcome to the 2019 Football Season Game Prediction Contest. I did this a long time ago on HornFans, then for the first time on shaggy in 2014, and now we are here at surly. Thanks to blacklab we are now (again) moving the prediction contest into the automated age.

    Do not put your entry in this thread.
    Click on the link below to enter your prediction:

    CONTEST LINK

    2014 winner - laga4
    2015 winner - EZ$
    2016 winner - knoxtnhorn
    2017 winner - EZ$
    2018 winner - mdmost

     

    Rules:

    1. An exactly correct prediction gets 200 points. 2 points are deducted for every point you miss the margin by and 1 point is deducted for every point you miss the total by. 25 points are deducted for not predicting the correct winner (pick a tie and you're automatically docked 25 points). Minimum score is zero. So go ahead and make smartass predictions, no sweat off my back.

    Example: You guess Texas 31, Louisiana Tech 13. Final score is Texas 41, Louisiana Tech 7. Your score is 200-2*(34-18)-(48-44)=164.

    2. Entries close at 5 minutes before listed gametime on the TexasSports.com team schedule page.

    3. All your scores are added up for the season long contest.

    4. Tiebreaker for each game is order of entry. The prediction post that is first in the thread among the tied entries wins the tiebreaker.

    5. Tiebreaker for season long contest is placement for the final game of the season prediction. Doesn't matter if it's a bowl game, a national semifinal, a national championship game, or the Texas Tech game if we don't make a bowl. Whatever the final game played is, that's the tiebreaker.

    That's it. Keep in mind that the tiebreaker and other rules are from last year and they may be tweaked based on the needs for blacklab's coding. Any other necessary rules or rule changes will be made up on the fly. Good luck. Overall season winner gets jack shit from me, but...

    6. Optional Prize Money - Posters may choose to pay the $25 entry fee but are not required to do so. Each week the top-ranked poster of those who are in the prize pool will receive $25. At the end of the season the top three overall finishers will receive 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively of the remaining pool.

    To enter the paid version paypal $25 to bob at tanmutt.com.
    Once you've done that send blacklab a PM so he can mark you as paid in the software.
    Please put your surly username in the note at PayPal, probably best to mention the prediction contest as well.


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    no

    Just curious if im missing something or if the program just goofed but i noticed that out of the people that had 45 pts for texas that the groups that were off by more pts on okie score were ahead of me/huck/ghost who were only off by 3 on okie score 

    So a prediction that was 45-37 has more points than my 45-27...same texas score but closer on the okie st score

     

     

     

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    Just curious if im missing something or if the program just goofed but i noticed that out of the people that had 45 pts for texas that the groups that were off by more pts on okie score were ahead of me/huck/ghost who were only off by 3 on okie score So a prediction that was 45-37 has more points than my 45-27...same texas score but closer on the okie st score  

     

     

     

    Spread difference counts more (2 pts) than total points difference (1 pt). On your examples above:

     

    45-37 = 8 pt spread and 82 total points

     

    45-27 = 18 pt spread and 72 total points

     

    Actual score 36-30 = 6 pt spread and 66 total points.

     

    So:

     

    45-37 = 2(8-6) + 1(82-66) = 20 pt deduction

     

    45-27 = 2(18-6) + 1(72-66) = 30 pt deduction

     

     

     

     

     

    • Like 2
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    Spread difference counts more (2 pts) than total points difference (1 pt). On your examples above:
     
    45-37 = 8 pt spread and 82 total points
     
    45-27 = 18 pt spread and 72 total points
     
    Actual score 36-30 = 6 pt spread and 66 total points.
     
    So:
     
    45-37 = 2(8-6) + 1(16) = 20 pt deduction
     
    45-27 = 2(18-6) + 1(6) = 30 pt deduction
     
     
     
    Gotcha...gracias
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    On 9/23/2019 at 7:37 PM, Modessit said:

    Spread difference counts more (2 pts) than total points difference (1 pt). On your examples above:

    45-37 = 8 pt spread and 82 total points

    45-27 = 18 pt spread and 72 total points

    Actual score 36-30 = 6 pt spread and 66 total points.

    So:

    45-37 = 2(8-6) + 1(82-66) = 20 pt deduction

    45-27 = 2(18-6) + 1(72-66) = 30 pt deduction

    b46c32f45e3a9e88b2ec7651a3e3c00f.gif

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    1 hour ago, Modessit said:


     

     


    dbbc0690556d5fe1df2130322f2756b8.jpg

     

     

    On 9/22/2019 at 2:43 PM, DDD Dad said:


    Do the standings show the tiebreakers?

     

    On 9/22/2019 at 2:45 PM, blacklab said:

    no

    Those are in alphabetical order.

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    Well F-me.

    After a reboot, the contest site wants me to login... but no combination of username or email and password works....  No automated way to reset the pw.

    Any chance of whacking the pw on  my contest acct?

     

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    Well F-me.
    After a reboot, the contest site wants me to login... but no combination of username or email and password works....  No automated way to reset the pw.
    Any chance of whacking the pw on  my contest acct?
     
    It should be the same pw and username as here.
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    27 minutes ago, Modessit said:
    1 hour ago, TexMexBuddha said:
    Anyone able to log back in with surly UID and PWD?@blacklab - I know you said PM you. Still the case?
     

    Just did.

    Thanks. Won't work for me. Will PM BL directly. Cheers.

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    Link doesn’t look normal to me. The blanks for entry are not there, nor are the previous weeks entries, etc. 

    Edited by brojangles2
    Was logged out. Disregard 🤦🏻‍♂️
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    the formula works out weird. 

    Consider the WV game.  Score 42-31

    Here's a couple of the guesses (from results page).  16 is a better  prediction than 17.   He's 4 points closer on the Texas score, and the same on the WV score, but they get the same points?  Seems goofy.  

     

    16 dnaguy (41 - 27) 189  
    17 Iguana (37 - 27)

    189

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    actual margin = 11
    actual total = 73

    start with 200, subtract 2 for each point off on margin, 1 point per total off

    dna guy
    --margin = 14
    --total = 68

    margin off by 3, total off by 5,   200 - (2x3) - 5 = 189

    iguana
    --margin = 10
    --total = 64

    margin off by 1, total off by 9, 200 - (1x2) - 9 = 189

     

     

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    Any reason why a prediction wouldn't be saved? Put in my prediction either Thursday or Friday, checked again yesterday when the game ended to see if the scores had been updated yet. Both times my prediction (38-24) showed but now it shows I didn't make one... Not like I've got money on it or anything but still confusing

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    12 hours ago, B00M said:

    Predicted 41-20.. It was 42-24 until the final minute garbage time WVU TD fucked me into 4th in the paying pool.

    I feel your pain, I predicted 41-24 - all it took to ruin my day was 2 4th down conversion leading to a meaningless score.
    Oh well - always next week.
    Fuck OU (still working out all the maths to get my picks in)

    Related image

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    On 10/6/2019 at 5:12 PM, BigHorn'13 said:

    Any reason why a prediction wouldn't be saved? Put in my prediction either Thursday or Friday, checked again yesterday when the game ended to see if the scores had been updated yet. Both times my prediction (38-24) showed but now it shows I didn't make one... Not like I've got money on it or anything but still confusing

    Just "saved" my pick again but I'm putting it here too in case there's any fuckery again. 

    Texas 41

    Clippy 38

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    I set up a spreadsheet for my game picks so that I can track my score immediately after the games.  (No, I don't have a life.)  I used the equation in the first post in the thread, and I have a glitch or something that I can't figure out.  All of the points for the games match the website except the points for the LSU game.  The website shows that I got 131 points for that prediction, but my spreadsheet shows 143 points.  Where am I messing up?

    Also, when will the ousucks game results be posted?

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    In one cell I calculate the margin deduction, which is the margin difference x 2.  In the case of the ou game and my prediction, that is 2(7-3), or 8.

    In the next cell I calculate the total deduction.  In the case of the ou game and my prediction, that is my predicted total of 73 - the actual total of 61, or 12.

    In the last cell I calculate the total point as 200 - 8 - 12 - 25 (I picked Texas to win.)  I come up with 155, but the website says 143, a difference of 12 points.  I also get a difference of 12 points for the LSU game, but all of the Texas wins are the same (my calculations and the website).  I know it's probably an order of calculation error on my part, but I'm not finding it.  Thanks for the help, @blacklab.

    Edited by Scheiss Meister
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