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TexArcher

2019 ALCS: call it

Who takes the pennant?  

88 members have voted

  1. 1. Who takes the pennant?

    • Astros in 7
      32
    • Astros in 6
      34
    • Astros in 5
      9
    • Astros in 4
      2
    • Yankees in 4
      1
    • Yankees in 5
      1
    • Yankees in 6
      6
    • Yankees in 7
      3


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Picked the Yankees in 4. My dream ideal scenario is Yankees in 5, with lone loss being a perfect game by Cole. Really want it driven home to Cashman & the Steinbros how stupid it is to penny-pinch when you have more money than anyone. They need to get Cole in the offseason. 

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5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Picked the Yankees in 4. My dream ideal scenario is Yankees in 5, with lone loss being a perfect game by Cole. Really want it driven home to Cashman & the Steinbros how stupid it is to penny-pinch when you have more money than anyone. They need to get Cole in the offseason. 

Hilarious 

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8 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Picked the Yankees in 4. My dream ideal scenario is Yankees in 5, with lone loss being a perfect game by Cole. Really want it driven home to Cashman & the Steinbros how stupid it is to penny-pinch when you have more money than anyone. They need to get Cole in the offseason. 

I will take them in six games. I think the bullpen is the deciding factor in this series. The Yanks have one of the best ever assembled. The starters just need to go five and turn it over to Ottavino, Kahnle, Britton and Chapman. It is far easier said than done to pull that off, but I think that is the plan Boone has for this series. He does not have the horses in the starting rotation that Houston does. 

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9 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

You need to add an 'Astros in 8' option for Fondren.

You really suck at this.  Poor delivery and it doesn't match the source material. 

Should be Astros in 3. 

 

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10 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

I will take them in six games. I think the bullpen is the deciding factor in this series. The Yanks have one of the best ever assembled. The starters just need to go five and turn it over to Ottavino, Kahnle, Britton and Chapman. It is far easier said than done to pull that off, but I think that is the plan Boone has for this series. He does not have the horses in the starting rotation that Houston does. 

The bullpen is good, but nothing is promised with Chapman on the mound. He’s the furthest thing from a shutdown closer there is. But if he happens to be on, it’s lights out. Otto was also unimpressive in limited ALDS work, he needs to turn it around.
 

No hyperbole here, if I was Boone I’d strongly consider batting Stanton 9th or benching him entirely. He’s easily the worst hitter on the team (at the moment) & he has no hope of finding himself against Houston pitching. He’s just missed too much time this year. I’m fast approaching Jayson Nix-levels of hate for the dude. He draws walks from pitchers scared to challenge him due to his reputation, little do they know if they actually tried he’d be helpless. I don’t gamble, but $50 on Stanton not recording an extra base hit during the series would be free money. He fucking sucks /rant.

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1 minute ago, Helobious said:

The bullpen is good, but nothing is promised with Chapman on the mound. He’s the furthest thing from a shutdown closer there is. But if he happens to be on, it’s lights out. Otto was also unimpressive in limited ALDS work, he needs to turn it around.
 

No hyperbole here, if I was Boone I’d strongly consider batting Stanton 9th or benching him entirely. He’s easily the worst hitter on the team (at the moment) & he has no hope of finding himself against Houston pitching. He’s just missed too much time this year. I’m fast approaching Jayson Nix-levels of hate for the dude. He draws walks from pitchers scared to challenge him due to his reputation, little do they know if they actually tried he’d be helpless. I don’t gamble, but $50 on Stanton not recording an extra base hit during the series would be free money. He fucking sucks /rant.

Okay I will address the rest of this later, but I'll take your bet on Giancarlo. Deal? I'll venmo you 50 if he doesn't get one and vice versa. 

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2 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

Okay I will address the rest of this later, but I'll take your bet on Giancarlo. Deal? I'll venmo you 50 if he doesn't get one and vice versa. 

Never have or will put actual money on sports. Ive never bought a lottery ticket or been to or desired to go to a casino, and the overwhelming majority of my stock money is in index funds. I do believe Stanton won’t get more than a single the whole ALCS, I just lack the conviction/balls to put any money behind it. Surely everyone can respect that.

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50 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

The starters just need to go five

can they make it a full five?

 

51 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

Ottavino, Kahnle, Britton and Chapman

is britton healthy?  i heard chapman was, but hadn't heard about britton yet.

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6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

can they make it a full five?

 

is britton healthy?  i heard chapman was, but hadn't heard about britton yet.

Britton is good. Chapman has had issues this year, but he seems to rise to the occasion when necessary. The Yanks biggest strength is their pen. Having two closers and then two high energy guys like Brooklyn's own Ottavino and Kahnle is a big advantage. Verlander and Cole have to be lights out in their starts I believe for Houston to win.

The hitters almost always get top billing, but this series is all about Houston's rotation vs. the Yanks pen. That is what will decide it. 

Edited by UpperWestside

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I will take them in six games. I think the bullpen is the deciding factor in this series. The Yanks have one of the best ever assembled. The starters just need to go five and turn it over to Ottavino, Kahnle, Britton and Chapman. It is far easier said than done to pull that off, but I think that is the plan Boone has for this series. He does not have the horses in the starting rotation that Houston does. 
The 2nd best bullpen ever assembled after the one the Astros just beat!!!!

Stros before the bitch ass Yankees Hoes

Zero fucks given if it is in 4, 5, 6, or 7

Suck Bregmans cock Helobodork

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Just now, UpperWestside said:

Britton is good good. Chapman has had issues this year, but he seems to rise to the occasion when necessary. The Yanks biggest strength is their pen. Having two closers and then two high energy guys like Brooklyn's own Ottavino and Kahnle is a big advantage. Verlander and Coke have to be lights out in their starts I believe for Houston to win.

The hitters almost always get top billing, but this series is all about Houston's rotation vs. the Yanks pen. That is what will decide it. 

i appreciate the overview, i don't spend much time following the regular season or past seasons.

i would counter and say that's it's about whether the astros actually hit.  if we do, it's over in 5 or 6.

if the yankees depend on getting 4-5 innings out of their pen every game, it's not gonna end well for them.

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

No option for the meteor?

Team meteor, but gun to my head, fuck the yanks....

 

fuck the cards too, goddamn I’m gonna have to root for the nats.....

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10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i appreciate the overview, i don't spend much time following the regular season or past seasons.

i would counter and say that's it's about whether the astros actually hit.  if we do, it's over in 5 or 6.

if the yankees depend on getting 4-5 innings out of their pen every game, it's not gonna end well for them.

I think Boone wants five innings from their starters. Anything above that seems to be a bonus. Paxton appears to be their wildcard. No idea how he responds to the pressure for the first time. 

Boone really does a good job connecting with the players. That whole audio thing that was caught of him calling his hitters Fucking Savages in that box ingratiated him to the team. They may not win this series, but Boone has done a great job with a revolving door of players all season. 

Houston hitters can mash, but the Yanks also excel at putting up crooked numbers. Pitching will decide it I believe. 

Edited by UpperWestside

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7 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

The hitters almost always get top billing, but this series is all about Houston's rotation vs. the Yanks pen. That is what will decide it. 

Here's the thing, though.  If the Yankees can only count on 4 or 5 innings from their starters, they're going to be asking 3 or 4 relievers to ALL be on, every night, to win games.  Any one has an off night and they're cooked.  That's tougher than asking Cole, JV, or Greinke to go pitch 7 or 8 strong.  Hell, Cole hasn't lost in 5 months.

And the gap between the Yankees' bullpen and the Astros' bullpen isn't as big as people think.  The Yankees have 4 good relievers and the Astros have 3.  

The gap between the Astros' starters and the Yankees' starters is much bigger.

And starting pitching tends to win 7-game series.

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2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Here's the thing, though.  If the Yankees can only count on 4 or 5 innings from their starters, they're going to be asking 3 or 4 relievers to ALL be on, every night, to win games.  Any one has an off night and they're cooked.  That's tougher than asking Cole, JV, or Greinke to go pitch 7 or 8 strong.  Hell, Cole hasn't lost in 5 months.

And the gap between the Yankees' bullpen and the Astros' bullpen isn't as big as people think.  The Yankees have 4 good relievers and the Astros have 3.  

The gap between the Astros' starters and the Yankees' starters is much bigger.

And starting pitching tends to win 7-game series.

I just think those four are good in a way we might not have really seen before in a modern bullpen. 

Ottavino will scare you with the walks he issues. Chapman has issues more regularly than in the past to be sure. Early in the season the damn Tigers got him to blow a save so anything is possible after witnessing that...lol. 

I feel like it comes down to Verlander and Cole vs. those four guys. Cole looks like a guy the Yanks should throw 35 million plus a year at this off-season. Just a damn man on a mission out there everytime he takes the bump. 

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Yeah, the Achilles heel for the Yankee bullpen is all those walks.  We have some guys who will take them (Bregman, Brantley, Yordan) and some who will chase (Springer, Correa, sometimes Altuve).  

The point I was trying to make above is that a starter can get blown up for 3 runs in the first and the team can still win the game, especially if the other starter is suspect.  When a bullpen implodes, it's much harder to overcome.  And asking any bullpen to pitch 4 or 5 scoreless innings 4 times against this Astros lineup seems like a big ask.  And of course you've got to get the lead first.

This is gonna be a fun series.  There's a lot to talk about here.

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Just now, Mez2 said:

Yankees already clinched 

Their buttholes!

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13 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Yeah, the Achilles heel for the Yankee bullpen is all those walks.  We have some guys who will take them (Bregman, Brantley, Yordan) and some who will chase (Springer, Correa, sometimes Altuve).  

The point I was trying to make above is that a starter can get blown up for 3 runs in the first and the team can still win the game, especially if the other starter is suspect.  When a bullpen implodes, it's much harder to overcome.  And asking any bullpen to pitch 4 or 5 scoreless innings 4 times against this Astros lineup seems like a big ask.  And of course you've got to get the lead first.

This is gonna be a fun series.  There's a lot to talk about here.

It doesn’t feel like it, but Springer actually walks 12% of the time-that’s significantly more than Brantley, for instance. (He also strikes out less than Alvarez.)

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29 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Here's the thing, though.  If the Yankees can only count on 4 or 5 innings from their starters, they're going to be asking 3 or 4 relievers to ALL be on, every night, to win games.  Any one has an off night and they're cooked.  That's tougher than asking Cole, JV, or Greinke to go pitch 7 or 8 strong.  Hell, Cole hasn't lost in 5 months.

And the gap between the Yankees' bullpen and the Astros' bullpen isn't as big as people think.  The Yankees have 4 good relievers and the Astros have 3.  

The gap between the Astros' starters and the Yankees' starters is much bigger.

And starting pitching tends to win 7-game series.

Game 1 is the biggest game of the series unless it goes 7. It changes everything if the Yankees win. Everyone knows the Yankee strategy for years has been to make the starter throw 100+ pitches by the 6th or 7th, by taking pitches and making the game last 4 hours. A game 1 win against Greinke means they won’t face him again until game 6. He’s not mentally tough enough to pitch in Yankee Stadium in October. He basically said as much a couple years back when he commented on not wanting to play there given his struggles with anxiety. And everyone saw what happened in Tampa, perhaps the tamest environment for a visiting team in all of sports.

So that means the Yankees face urquincy or whoever in game 4, that should be a win. Then hopefully their run up the pitch count strategy pays dividends against fatigued Greinke/JV/Cole at the end of the series.

Edited by Helobious

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That's pretty silly.  I'm assuming your quote (source?) was about not wanting to pitch for the Yankees.  A lot of players don't want to play there, and it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with mental toughness.

Greinke will start Game 5 on normal rest at Yankee stadium.  The idea that he's scared to and will ask out of that game so that JV has to go on short rest is absurd.  

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guess vegas hasn’t done their due diligence re: best bullpen of all time; greinke’s mental toughness. 

greinke will go 1/5 and i don’t see why cole and jv would be fatigued pitching all their games on regular rest.

but hey why not. 

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

guess vegas hasn’t done their due diligence re: best bullpen of all time; greinke’s mental toughness. 

greinke will go 1/5 and i don’t see why cole and jv would be fatigued pitching all their games on regular rest.

but hey why not. 

I am no bettor to be sure, but lines seem to be placed depending upon the action of the bets. 

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

guess vegas hasn’t done their due diligence re: best bullpen of all time; greinke’s mental toughness. 

greinke will go 1/5 and i don’t see why cole and jv would be fatigued pitching all their games on regular rest.

but hey why not. 

Fat line for the Stros but I think it honestly comes down to home field. Yankees need to win one of the first 2. If they do that line flips. 

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Just now, UpperWestside said:

I am no bettor to be sure, but lines seem to be placed depending upon the action of the bets. 

I doubt Houston is getting that much action. I would guess that line is pretty damn close to what Vegas thinks is going to happen. 

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Just now, ztejas said:

Fat line for the Stros but I think it honestly comes down to home field. Yankees need to win one of the first 2. If they do that line flips. 

and if they don’t, it’s all over but the crying (cole in g3, ouch). 

if yanks split in houston, it’ll go 7. if stros win both, stros in 6. 

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7 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

That's pretty silly.  I'm assuming your quote (source?) was about not wanting to pitch for the Yankees.  A lot of players don't want to play there, and it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with mental toughness.

I think Sabathia said it best about pitching in the Bronx. "Those pinstripes aren't for everyone."

Sonny Gray was eaten alive here recently. He could not function as a professional pitcher in front of those fans. I saw some of his starts. It was brutal. Greinke was mentally not ready to pitch here. And that's alright. Some guys like to be in low-key environments. We are all humans and we are all very different. I won't fault him for shying away from the Bronx. 

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3 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

I think Sabathia said it best about pitching in the Bronx. "Those pinstripes aren't for everyone."

Sonny Gray was eaten alive here recently. He could not function as a professional pitcher in front of those fans. I saw some of his starts. It was brutal. Greinke was mentally not ready to pitch here. And that's alright. Some guys like to be in low-key environments. We are all humans and we are all very different. I won't fault him for shying away from the Bronx. 

Please both of you cut the horseshit. The Yankees haven't made a world series in 10 years. If anything they have pressure to do it. 

And this is coming from someone that relishes any chance to say "fuck the Astros".

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Just now, ztejas said:

Please both of you cut the horseshit. The Yankees haven't made a world series in 10 years. If anything they have pressure to do it. 

And this is coming from someone that relishes any chance to say "fuck the Astros".

Well no shit they have pressure to make the world series. That really just goes without saying here. 

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22 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

I am no bettor to be sure, but lines seem to be placed depending upon the action of the bets. 

 

21 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I doubt Houston is getting that much action. I would guess that line is pretty damn close to what Vegas thinks is going to happen. 

 

Vegas isn't in the prediction business.  All they care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides so the losers pay the winners and the house takes the juice with no risk.

And this sounds about right for an opening line.  The Yankees' starters are a concern, folks.  And a lot of people see Garret Cole 18-0 since May and wonder how the Yankees are gonna win 4 of the other 5.  I'm not saying it's right, but there needs to be value in picking the Yankees for neutral bettors.

If I had to guess, it'll settle around Astros -150.

Edited by TexArcher

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7 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

I think Sabathia said it best about pitching in the Bronx. "Those pinstripes aren't for everyone."

Sonny Gray was eaten alive here recently. He could not function as a professional pitcher in front of those fans. I saw some of his starts. It was brutal. Greinke was mentally not ready to pitch here. And that's alright. Some guys like to be in low-key environments. We are all humans and we are all very different. I won't fault him for shying away from the Bronx. 

not everyone can be "sec ready". 

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2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

 

 

Vegas isn't in the prediction business.  All they care about is getting the same amount of money on both side so the winners pay the losers and the house takes the juice with no risk.

This sounds about right for an opening line.  The Yankees' starters are a concern, folks.  And a lot of people see Garret Cole 18-0 since May and wonder how the Yankees are gonna win 4 of the other 5.  I'm not saying it's right, but there needs to be value in picking the Yankees for neutral bettors.

I get that - but it sounds like you're agreeing with me. 

3 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

Well no shit they have pressure to make the world series. That really just goes without saying here. 

Yes, and I think that pressure is probably a wash compared to whatever home field advantage the Yankees claim. 

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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I get that - but it sounds like you're agreeing with me.

Sort of - I would say the opening line is what Vegas thinks bettors will think is a decent price for both sides.

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1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

 

 

Vegas isn't in the prediction business.  All they care about is getting the same amount of money on both side so the winners pay the losers and the house takes the juice with no risk.

This sounds about right for an opening line.  The Yankees' starters are a concern, folks.  And a lot of people see Garret Cole 18-0 since May and wonder how the Yankees are gonna win 4 of the other 5.  I'm not saying it's right, but there needs to be value in picking the Yankees for neutral bettors.

That's a really good and accurate explanation on Vegas.

The Yankee starters are very concerning. I would rank them in order of Tanaka, Seve and Paxton. If CC makes the ALCS roster I would have him 4th if they have him start. Sad to see him go out on such a low note. Again though the Stros  and Yanks have wildly different expectations with their starting rotation .

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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I get that - but it sounds like you're agreeing with me. 

Yes, and I think that pressure is probably a wash compared to whatever home field advantage the Yankees claim. 

Yankees are 10-1 at home over their last 3 postseasons, including 3-0 against the Astros in 2017. The Twins pitcher that got completely rocked in game 2 of the ALDS whined and complained in an interview about how vile and cruel the Yankees fans were. You’re a fool if you think they have no home field advantage.

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2 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

That's a really good and accurate explanation on Vegas.

The Yankee starters are very concerning. I would rank them in order of Tanaka, Seve and Paxton. If CC makes the ALCS roster I would have him 4th if they have him start. Sad to see him go out on such a low note. Again though the Stros  and Yanks have wildly different expectations with their starting rotation .

Thanks, except that I had losers and winners backwards, lol.

For the record, I would be more concerned if Severino were 100%. That guy can win a Cy someday.

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4 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

The Yankee starters are very concerning. I would rank them in order of Tanaka, Seve and Paxton. If CC makes the ALCS roster I would have him 4th if they have him start. Sad to see him go out on such a low note. Again though the Stros  and Yanks have wildly different expectations with their starting rotation .

Boone & Cashman said before the playoffs even started they planned on being unorthodox with their starting pitching. I hope they know what they’re doing. It is different when you’re starter can only go 4 or 5, but that’s what you planned for anyway. Their basic idea is not to let any pitcher go through the lineup a 3rd time. It’s statistically sound, but that doesn’t always translate to the field. Hope they know what they’re doing.

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