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Goo Punch

Texas' KenPom ratings

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Question about the style component in Kenpom. Why is the metric for team rated #1 in assist/gm red. With everything else the higher your ranking the greener the metric, but the opposite seems to be true in red. 824703e45ba1f61d9bff43e594c58d05.jpg

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13 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

it's the people who make posts like this one who seem to have shitty lives. why so reactive to such a benign post? i frankly can't believe how many people around here still act this way despite how clearly dead our program is. anyone who cares about the program knows Shaka's got to go, yet we get constantly "fan shamed" if we aren't just blindly happy with the W/L record. that's crap. and so is the lashing out about how miserable the rest of us must be to not be jizzing ourselves over Shaka Smart's latest sub-.500 team. come on. 

He's upset because I pegged him.  He is one of the fans that thinks 5th or 6th place is acceptable because he really likes Shaka.  He was probably calling for Rick Barnes head when we finished in 4th place in the B12 and was happy when we fired him.  It's ridiculous to think that under Shaka a fourth place finish in the B12 is miraculous and worthy of a 5 year extension and 4th for Rick Barnes means termination.  CDC better grow some balls because Texas athletics is going in the toilet in all sports except for Swimming and Golf.

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14 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

He's upset because I pegged him.  He is one of the fans that thinks 5th or 6th place is acceptable because he really likes Shaka.  He was probably calling for Rick Barnes head when we finished in 4th place in the B12 and was happy when we fired him.  It's ridiculous to think that under Shaka a fourth place finish in the B12 is miraculous and worthy of a 5 year extension and 4th for Rick Barnes means termination.  CDC better grow some balls because Texas athletics is going in the toilet in all sports except for Swimming and Golf.

Huh? I’ve already said on here I’d be shocked if we go .500 in conference. We suck and I wanted Shaka gone last year and would have been happy to see him gone at the end of the year before that. I agree with pretty much everything Derka posts about Shaka. But yes I was happy Barnes was fired. You weren’t?

 

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4 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Huh? I’ve already said on here I’d be shocked if we go .500 in conference. We suck and I wanted Shaka gone last year and would have been happy to see him gone at the end of the year before that. I agree with pretty much everything Derka posts about Shaka. But yes I was happy Barnes was fired. You weren’t?

 

Not happy that he was gone but he had been here too long and the team had become stale.  I did have high hopes for Shaka but once I saw the regression after the huge failure of his first year, I knew we were in trouble.  The same can be said for Herman.  We are in trouble.  Don't renew any season ticket subs for any sports.  Buy a cheap big screen with the savings so when you throw it out your window while watching Texas sports you will still be in the black.

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11 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

 Shaka Smart is never going to perform well at Texas. It's above his level. 

I agree it's pretty much a given at this point.  I also don't think enough people that matter care.   As discussed at length last year, I think basketball is relatively revenue neutral.  I'm guessing CDC is just hoping Shaka can manage to make the tournament and kick the can down the road another year.  I stand by my prediction that barring another failure to make a tournament (or Shaka magically making a big run) we tread water 2 more seaons then a new coach opens Moody in fall 2022

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12 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

i don't even see it as conceivable at this point. it's been the same thing for the last 3.5 years now. his only respectable team was with players he didn't choose and they went 0-fer in the postseason (0-2 as favorites in both tournaments). Shaka is what he is. It's harder to accept because it's more abstract when it's a coach than when it's an athlete, but in the same way that Brock Cunningham is never going to be an All Big XII player, Shaka Smart is never going to perform well at Texas. It's above his level. 

How much of Texas' late game struggles have been because of defensive stupidity vs. offensive stupidity? It's an angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin question, I know, but then, we're talking about the statistically unlikely event of Texas playing better in conference this season than the last 3-4.

If it was mostly defense, then there's a chance that something we haven't seen yet this year (Texas playing out the end of a close game) could be better than expected. If it was roughly even, that difference will be slight. And if it was mostly offense, then, well, we're screwed pretty much as a given.

It's certainly more fun to speculate about as a possibility than anticipation of what is likely. Because, as we all know, what is likely is that CDC needs to be ready to pull the plug the day of Texas' first tournament game.

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It was a combination of offensive stupidity and the inability to closeout defensive stops (couldn't get the necessary rebounds in the waning minutes of games).  Im hoping our offensive stupidity in the clutch is mitigated by having older guards and Kerwin Roach not being on the court during those crucial moments.  As far as those defensive rebounds go......aw fuck it!!

Edited by Catdaddyhorn

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21 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I agree it's pretty much a given at this point.  I also don't think enough people that matter care.   As discussed at length last year, I think basketball is relatively revenue neutral.  I'm guessing CDC is just hoping Shaka can manage to make the tournament and kick the can down the road another year.

I'm not willing to accuse CDC of that level of apathy, given his alleged demand that every program be in the national top 10, until he proves that it's all bullshit.  This would seemingly indicate that UT basketball should make major strides to the top 10 this year.  I'd say "top 10" is "4 seed or better" in the tournament.  I don't think anyone is expecting the 'horns to get there this year, but missing the tournament again would surely be grounds for firing.  An 8 seed or better would at least justify "one more year" on an (alleged) approach to a top 4 seed.  I don't think any of us actually believe Shaka could routinely get us to that level, but I wouldn't be shocked if a step in that direction were rewarded with another year.

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Go back and watch the last seconds of our game at KU last year. They ran a perfect play where Jase sets a screen for Coleman with a big diving to the paint, putting Jase's man in a pinch. Then out of nowhere,  rather than staying on the baseline 3 or even cutting to the basket, Kerwin comes up the wing calling for the ball,  bringing his man to Jase who is the only one around to defend what would've otherwise been a wide open shot for Jase shot.   

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6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not willing to accuse CDC of that level of apathy, given his alleged demand that every program be in the national top 10, until he proves that it's all bullshit.  This would seemingly indicate that UT basketball should make major strides to the top 10 this year.  I'd say "top 10" is "4 seed or better" in the tournament.  I don't think anyone is expecting the 'horns to get there this year, but missing the tournament again would surely be grounds for firing.  An 8 seed or better would at least justify "one more year" on an (alleged) approach to a top 4 seed.  I don't think any of us actually believe Shaka could routinely get us to that level, but I wouldn't be shocked if a step in that direction were rewarded with another year.

I mean you contradicted yourself in the same post.  4 seed or better is definitely major strides.  But I think the floor to avoid a firing this year is just making the tournament.  We can claim 'progress' and kick the can and the vast majority of Texas sports fans are perfectly ok with that.  And if you get in somewhere in the 7-10 range you basically have a 50/50 shot at winning a game so there's that to. Casual fans really only get pissed about basketball when Texas isn't around tourney time as they are filling out brackets.  But if we haven't made "major strides" by the season before new arena opens, that's when I think CDC pulls the plug so he can market the new arena and new coach.

Edited by Skipper

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I think we will be improved at the end of games this year in conference games.  Roach and DO were just terrible basketball IQ players.  It will help to have them gone.  This is also the first year since year 1 where we have an upperclassman point guard running the show.

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10 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean you contradicted yourself in the same post.  4 seed or better is definitely major strides.  But I think the floor to avoid a firing this year is just making the tournament.  We can claim 'progress' and kick the can and the vast majority of Texas sports fans are perfectly ok with that.  And if you get in somewhere in the 7-10 range you basically have a 50/50 shot at winning a game so there's that to. Casual fans really only get pissed about basketball when Texas isn't around tourney time as they are filling out brackets.  But if we haven't made "major strides" by the season before new arena opens, that's when I think CDC pulls the plug so he can market the new arena and new coach.

I'm not sure where I contradicted myself.  Of course 4 seed or better would be major strides -- it would meet CDC's (rough) standard of "top 10".  I didn't say we'd need to get there this year, but it had better happen soon or CDC is full of hot air.  I literally said missing the tournament should be the bar for firing, too.

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I agree it's pretty much a given at this point.  I also don't think enough people that matter care.   As discussed at length last year, I think basketball is relatively revenue neutral.  I'm guessing CDC is just hoping Shaka can manage to make the tournament and kick the can down the road another year.  I stand by my prediction that barring another failure to make a tournament (or Shaka magically making a big run) we tread water 2 more seaons then a new coach opens Moody in fall 2022

 

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I mean you contradicted yourself in the same post.  4 seed or better is definitely major strides.  But I think the floor to avoid a firing this year is just making the tournament.  We can claim 'progress' and kick the can and the vast majority of Texas sports fans are perfectly ok with that.  And if you get in somewhere in the 7-10 range you basically have a 50/50 shot at winning a game so there's that to. Casual fans really only get pissed about basketball when Texas isn't around tourney time as they are filling out brackets.  But if we haven't made "major strides" by the season before new arena opens, that's when I think CDC pulls the plug so he can market the new arena and new coach.

The UT Athletics Department is a strange place, for sure. There was interest and support, allegedly, in getting Smart out after last season. There was monetary support from boosters to do it. Countering all of that, there's like 2 really big boosters that had walked away from Herman already and they were throwing their energy and money into basketball. They like(d) Smart and they were firm in seeing him stay. That didn't stop CDC from indirectly shopping him to Wake and elsewhere. 

Meanwhile, the money was allegedly aligned to send Herman out on a fucking rail after this season. CDC pushed back. The word was that they were ready to put forward the $20+million buyout. So you have one situation in which the AD and the majority of the boosters and fans were ready to send the coach off, and another situation where the AD basically held up the move. Weird.

You talk to people involved with fundraising and boosters these days and it is quite clear that they are tired of having to answer for Smart. They almost roll their eyes. That makes its way back to Del Conte. I assume that anything short of a sweet 16 run this season will mean the interests are aligned closely enough to send this guy off. But who fucking knows. One big swinging dick could subterfuge all of it. 

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

 

The UT Athletics Department is a strange place, for sure. There was interest and support, allegedly, in getting Smart out after last season. There was monetary support from boosters to do it. Countering all of that, there's like 2 really big boosters that had walked away from Herman already and they were throwing their energy and money into basketball. They like(d) Smart and they were firm in seeing him stay. That didn't stop CDC from indirectly shopping him to Wake and elsewhere. 

Meanwhile, the money was allegedly aligned to send Herman out on a fucking rail after this season. CDC pushed back. The word was that they were ready to put forward the $20+million buyout. So you have one situation in which the AD and the majority of the boosters and fans were ready to send the coach off, and another situation where the AD basically held up the move. Weird.

You talk to people involved with fundraising and boosters these days and it is quite clear that they are tired of having to answer for Smart. They almost roll their eyes. That makes its way back to Del Conte. I assume that anything short of a sweet 16 run this season will mean the interests are aligned closely enough to send this guy off. But who fucking knows. One big swinging dick could subterfuge all of it. 

Would these boosters happen to be alumni from OU?  At this point, that's the only thing that makes sense.

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5 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

The UT Athletics Department is a strange place, for sure. There was interest and support, allegedly, in getting Smart out after last season. There was monetary support from boosters to do it. Countering all of that, there's like 2 really big boosters that had walked away from Herman already and they were throwing their energy and money into basketball. They like(d) Smart and they were firm in seeing him stay. That didn't stop CDC from indirectly shopping him to Wake and elsewhere. 

You talk to people involved with fundraising and boosters these days and it is quite clear that they are tired of having to answer for Smart. They almost roll their eyes. That makes its way back to Del Conte. I assume that anything short of a sweet 16 run this season will mean the interests are aligned closely enough to send this guy off. But who fucking knows. One big swinging dick could subterfuge all of it. 

That all makes sense.  If there is actually is buyout support in play, then yah, I could see pushing him out with a tourney birth if we are sub 500 in conference play and sneak in as one of the final four in.  Of course, if we shock everyone in conference play and are competitive and finish in the top 3 and a 4-5 seed, that may show enough progress even if one and done in the tourney.   Will be interesting to see for sure.  Especially if we do what I'm expecting and sneak into the tourney while underperforming.

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I have a weird perspective on tourney performance:  if a team lands a 4 seed and then gets upset in round 1, to me, that's somewhat unacceptable.  I get it, matchups, etc.  But still.

If an 8 seed beats a 9 seed, I somehow look at that as more justifiable.  Of course, that completely ignores the fact that their regular season (seemingly) only justified an 8 seed VS a 4 seed, but whatever.  I think it's too much of a snapshot to be actually defended, but it's still kind of the takeaway I always have.

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On 12/16/2019 at 11:53 PM, Walden Ponderer said:

The really funny part to me is how all it would take to flip the narrative on its head is just a slight improvement in the end game in conference play.

Shaka consistently underperforms KenPom because his Texas teams haven't closed even halfway well. Change that, and he could outperform the computers.

Likely? Hell, naw. But conceivable. And if it doesn't happen, I think a very long February will lead to a March regime change.

It's not anywhere close to conceivable because this team

1) Can't rebound for shit

2) Is allergic to drawing fouls on the opposing team

3) Can't shoot for shit

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On 12/17/2019 at 3:00 PM, closetojumping said:

 

The UT Athletics Department is a strange place, for sure. There was interest and support, allegedly, in getting Smart out after last season. There was monetary support from boosters to do it. Countering all of that, there's like 2 really big boosters that had walked away from Herman already and they were throwing their energy and money into basketball. They like(d) Smart and they were firm in seeing him stay. That didn't stop CDC from indirectly shopping him to Wake and elsewhere. 

Meanwhile, the money was allegedly aligned to send Herman out on a fucking rail after this season. CDC pushed back. The word was that they were ready to put forward the $20+million buyout. So you have one situation in which the AD and the majority of the boosters and fans were ready to send the coach off, and another situation where the AD basically held up the move. Weird.

You talk to people involved with fundraising and boosters these days and it is quite clear that they are tired of having to answer for Smart. They almost roll their eyes. That makes its way back to Del Conte. I assume that anything short of a sweet 16 run this season will mean the interests are aligned closely enough to send this guy off. But who fucking knows. One big swinging dick could subterfuge all of it. 

I wouldn't worry about this team going on a run in the NCAAs, maybe the NIT again. This team isn't winning 8 conference games.

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Whole lotta reeeeaaallll exciting stuff to add to this thread.

Here's our latest ratings:

81759998bd190d3eb3119b8c571156bb.jpg

here's our latest projected record:

eca316ce6186bb6bdcb0043fcf37585a.jpg

Here's the Providence team that just crushed us:

a655580105eaa173861e2db3b128e4ab.jpg

and here's their projected record:

3cdfd07ccf7f573299527104d2620443.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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What are Shaka’s odds of being shitcanned after this season assuming NIT is our ceiling?  Coin flip?  Even worse than that?

Edited by Fozzz

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i just can't see any justification for keeping him at that point. it'll be a pretty pathetic statement for our athletic department if we don't have enough money to fire one of the worst head coaches in major college ball after five years of these results, including outright missing the tourney 3/4 years with his own players. 

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Del Conte has been very adamant in his expectations -- Top 10.  I doubt he'd fire Shaka if the 'horns actually achieved something like an NCAA 4 seed with a couple of tournament wins, but . . . that ain't happening.

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We are going to be fighting to stay out of last place.  That new arena is going to be empty for a decade if Shaka isn't fired immediately and the transfers/bottoming out process allowed to take place.  At some point we have to cut our losses.  We should not let Mike Perrin or Fenves, who are responsible for the Shaka extension, anywhere near another athletic department decision.  They are pathetic.  Keep political correctness out of our athletic department. 

Edited by 2300 Nueces

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Current nonconference KenPom ratings and results:

OPPONENT KENPOM RESULT
Purdue 12 W
Georgetown 40 L
Providence 81 L
Northern Colorado 122 W
UAB 154 W
Texas A&M 158 W
California Baptist 161 W
California 191 W
Central Michigan 193 W
Prairie View A&M 245 W
McNeese State 284 W
High Point 342 W

 

Thank God we beat Purdue.  Georgetown might become a pretty bad loss if their personnel issues drag them down, but surprisingly enough, the Hoyas have gone 6-0 since players started departing.  They play Providence later this afternoon.

None of our victories to date (save Purdue) say much of anything.  As usual, the Big XII is strong, with all but one conference opponent in the Top 56.  Kansas State is lagging at 89.  At 62, we aren't exactly a threat to challenge for the title.  9-9 would be a good achievement and would probably get us in the tournament.

Unless the 'horns surprise us all, I think it's time for Shaka to pack his bags.

Edited by jimmyjazz

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Del Conte has been very adamant in his expectations -- Top 10.  I doubt he'd fire Shaka if the 'horns actually achieved something like an NCAA 4 seed with a couple of tournament wins, but . . . that ain't happening.

A 4Seed in the Big XII Tourney would be borderline miraculous.

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So we’re the 2nd worst team in the league?  Maybe we can split the series with KState.  $3 million and change per year sure doesn’t go as far as it used to.  

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1 hour ago, Camelback80 said:

Jan 16, 2020, Pomeroy ranks:

Texas Longhorns: #57

Tennessee Volunteers: #62

lmao, whoooweee for us!! hooray Shaka! Tennessee lost three players to the NBA from last year's team, then lost their best player/senior leader/starting PG in December, and now FINALLY, after last night's win vs mighty Oklahoma State, Shaka can say that his team is ranked higher than Tennessee for the first time in 3+ years. Hang the banner! lol, you idiot.  

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Tennessee in Kenpom under Barnes:

2016- 103

2017- 57

2018- 13

2019- 10

 

Texas in Kenpom under Shaka:

2016- 39

2017- 70

2018- 36 

2019- 25

LOL. So Shaka had a team in KenPom's top 70 that finished 11-22. Then he had a top 36 team that went 19-15 (8-10). Then he had a top 25 team that went 16-16 and didn't even make the tournament!! HOORAY SHAKA!

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Hey Derka, you’re obviously a basketball first kind of guy. I’m curious how you became a fan of the Texas MBB program. What a beating this life must be for you. We’ll never win a title, I’m sure you’ve figured that out by now...

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1 hour ago, Goo Punch said:

lmao, whoooweee for us!! hooray Shaka! Tennessee lost three players to the NBA from last year's team, then lost their best player/senior leader/starting PG in December, and now FINALLY, after last night's win vs mighty Oklahoma State, Shaka can say that his team is ranked higher than Tennessee for the first time in 3+ years. Hang the banner! lol, you idiot.  

Three players to the NBA and lost to a lower seed in the Sweet 16?  Sounds about par for the course.

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54 minutes ago, GotThatFire said:

Hey Derka, you’re obviously a basketball first kind of guy. I’m curious how you became a fan of the Texas MBB program. What a beating this life must be for you. We’ll never win a title, I’m sure you’ve figured that out by now...

He's posted about this before.  I think his Dad used to work for the team in some capacity.

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I'm probably a basketball first guy as well. Despite my parents going to UT, the BMW run in the early 90s was really the first Longhorn team in any sport I followed closely. Of course the Shock the world tour came the following fall of that same year, but my Longhorn fandom was initially birthed during that spring of 1990. 

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33 minutes ago, GotThatFire said:

Hey Derka, you’re obviously a basketball first kind of guy. I’m curious how you became a fan of the Texas MBB program. What a beating this life must be for you. We’ll never win a title, I’m sure you’ve figured that out by now...

my dad was the basketball SID at Texas when I was growing up:

My actual earliest memories are of Texas basketball. One of my very first memories is of me hating Arkansas- Eddie Sutton, Nolan Richardson, etc. My dad was at Texas until either Rick's first or second year, I can't remember. But even after he left I maintained many connections to the program. For example the team practiced at my school when Cooley Pavilion was being built, so while i grew up around the BMW guys, I also spent a ton of time around Mihm, Klack, Reggie, Chico, Ira, Muoneke, etc, and I maintain relationships with several of these people to this day. 

Also, later on in life Todd Wright's wife ended up teaching at the school where I (and my mom) worked; my mom, who is in her 40th year at the school btw, taught all three of Mrs.Wright's children, and her son was one of my kids during his 4th grade year in the after school program. Before I go any further let me say this- Coach Wright, his wife, their kids and their family are amazing human beings- exemplary human beings. I cannot speak highly enough of them. They are as good as it gets, period.

 Now then- with their kids attending our school, Coach Wright offered himself/his services and insights to our athletic department all on his own. He invited us out to his sports training complex in Westlake (Train 4 The Game) and essentially gave us all a free education on growing human bodies, and what we could do to best support them in our classes.

Then, after I had gained weight on medication and then injured my knee, I called Coach Wright and left him a voicemail asking him for dietary advice to help get me back on my feet. At this point I've spoken to him in person less than five times. He calls me back, and he says, "Tell me about your diet, and don't bullshit me, because i can't help you if you do." He proceeds to *literally* offer me the same deal he had going with Cam Ridley at that time. He told me to text him photos of my meals, to text him with any questions I had about what/when to eat, and he gave me a diet plan that worked for me, one that was based on my current weight/diet/health. He did this all on his own when he barely knew me and was working at Texas.

That was the spring/summer of 2014. I went from 320 lbs to 240 lbs and was able to found/participate in a rec soccer league after that. My health/sleep/life improved dramatically. I was working T the school five days a week, playing sports again, sleeping well, all of that. The best years of my adult life happened in large part because Todd Wright (Rick Barnes' best/oldest friend) took an interest in me when he never had to. And again, his wife and kids are just special people. Working with his wife was a dream. Just the brightest person. Also, because of my connection to the Wright family I was able to "re-meet" Coach Barnes, as well as getting to know several Longhorn players from that time. And again, I maintain those relationships today. 

Now then, put yourself in my shoes: Rick Barnes comes along and takes the thing that I love the most and he makes it better than its ever been or even aspired to be. Five Sweet 16's in six years. Crazy shit like that. Then Barnes's best friend and his best friend's family become really important people in my life. Meanwhile shaggy is going fucking ham on Barnes, just endlessly crushing him and wishing he would be fired. And I'm over here on Shaggy trying to be delusionally optimistic because Barnes being fired = my friends/my mentor being fired, having to look for work, and having find new jobs and move far away. And that's what happened in the end. And yet despite of all that Texas hoops is now worse than its been since Kaiser Bob. What a gut punch for me. 

does that answer your question? 

 

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35 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Three players to the NBA and lost to a lower seed in the Sweet 16?  Sounds about par for the course.

Jordan Bone was outside the national top 150 and had no major offers. La Tech and Tennessee Chattanooga were among the schools he was considering before Barnes offered him.

Admiral Schofield was an overweight tweener ranked in the national 200's who was going to Wisconsin- Green Bay before Barnes offered. 

Grant Williams was also ranked in the 200's and was going to attend Hampton before Barnes offered him. He ended up being named SEC POY his sophomore and junior years. 

their team lost on a last second fade away shot to a team that made the Final 4. Yep. Sounds like Barnes indeed.

Barnes is not a great NCAA tourney coach,  it the dude oberachieves with his players and his teams more than just about anyone out there. he's not going to outplay his seed, and he'll probably never win a title, but the man is a very, very good coach who has succeeded beyond expectations everywhere he's been. 

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then perhaps our most esteemed poster (or is that you?) should have brought up the subject of Barnes in that thread. 

Edited by Goo Punch

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14 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

then perhaps our most esteemed poster (or is that you?) should have brought up the subject of Barnes in that thread. 

Fuck Rick Barnes, perhaps

Edited by immortal13

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