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Wally Fairway

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55 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

tl:dr- dude fucks up and loses all of his Roth IRA so much so that it goes $6k negative 

I'm lost, you can't have margin on an Roth IRA acct right?  How could he do that without margin?

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Anyway back on the topic of aggystonk investing advice, I nominate Ray "cash is trash" Dalio as honorary aggy.

He's got to be at least half blood - looks like the love child of John Sharp and Bill Maher

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16 hours ago, BTW said:

I've been wanting to get into this game for years.  Just bought a book for newbs on the space and am slowly working through it.  I'll open a paper account for now to make sure I know what I'm doing before putting any actual money at risk.  Who do you guys like to use for trading?  My current broker doesn't appear to have any derivatives trading options.  

This sounds like an excellent idea.  I'm sure it will work out fine.

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On 3/16/2020 at 4:50 PM, Wally Fairway said:

A Wally Fairway confession

 

  Hide contents

 

I felt the need to look back and see what got me to where I am today (overly "invested" in puts, and almost an idiot out of my mind)

Background - almost all of my investing activities are in a rollover IRA, my 401k is in 3 funds (and I haven't looked since 2/29)
I started looking at options after being stop lossed out of some of my positions in the early 2018 rebound, where I missed out on a decent amount of the rebound as it happened very fast. I'm pretty sure someone on Surly made a comment about options being a better instrument then stops as far as controlling the risk and timing. So I started to look at them for a while, and early summer of 2018 I put in my request to be approved for options trading. I'm a high flying finance guy, with Level 1 authority {sarcasm - that is the lowest level}. After dabbling late summer and losing small amounts of money & learning what theta was, I bought some additional options in Oct/Nov and those were worth some decent money into mid-late December but I was greedy, added more into the "gains" and then watch it all disappear as the end of December early January 2018/19 bounce took away all my profits. And there I sat with another lesson in the value that theta loves to eat.
At this point I would guesstimate my over all options losses at $15-25k, but the bounce in the market covered up the cost.
Entering 2019, I put in some longer term puts (6-9 months) as the market seemed to be unrealistically and unsustainably increaseing - through all of 2019 I ate the losses on those, and entered 2020 with a small hedge position 5 SPY 11-20-20 $310 puts, and 5 SPY 1-17-20 $299 puts, the 1-17 puts expired worthless, but I stuck to my guns and went longer and bought some (expensive, for me) 3-19-21 $295 puts. At this point my cost basis in those 2 open positions was $13.7k and I was 35-40% hedged for the rest of the year.
And that brings me to February - seeing the market continue to rise, and on Friday 2/21 I bought 2 $326 3/02, 3/ $326 3/23, and 5 $332 3/02 puts for a total of $3.2k - and I started selling them on 2/24 (2 of the 3/23 $3/26) for about 2.5x the cost,and from there I started taking my gains and basically have parlayed the money, and my sanity, into where I am today.

I have realized that I need to take reap more of my gains and not leave this much money on that table, maybe take the gains on anything expiring in the next 10 day (which is about $20k) and reduce my longer term positions by 25-40%. Because nobody ever went broke taking gains (especially in a tax-deferred account). 
Then take a big breath, reevaluate where the market is; as prices of options have gone up quite a lot (meaning it is even more expensive to guess wrong), and then see if this shit levels out at SPY 220, 200, 175? (there really isn't any floor is sight - and I don't believe in "technical" support level in this type of an environment)

I have decided that once the market starts to turn I will primarily be invested in SPY, and look to sell covered calls to reap some returns above market rates.

Lessons learned
theta is a cost eating bitch
ride the wave, but try to jump out before it crash into shore (take some profits along the way, worst case get your investment back and let the gains ride)
know your options market - I used to have IJT, VOO and SPY (and a few other smaller positions) from an options standpoint - IJT and VOO a thinly traded so the market is not nearly as effective as SPY
My "investment" in options now is my 2nd largest position, to my SPY long equity (cost basis) - which is way out of whack, but most of it is from gains. 

I'll likely post my opening position tomorrow morning - but, on paper I made about $50k today, including my losses in core equity long positions, and that seems off on a day those holdings went down >11-15%.

 

To put a cap on this  - what does it all mean, and this is the first time I've looked at it like this, since the close of February my rollover IRA account is up just over 1%. 

 

That's way too much work and stress for my tastes to carve out 1%.

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56 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

That's way too much work and stress for my tastes to carve out 1%.

Maybe today is the day I get above 1%, but really it makes it so I'm not trying to time when to get back in. Because I tried that before and I suck at that too.

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On 3/16/2020 at 5:50 PM, Wally Fairway said:

A Wally Fairway confession

I have realized that I need to take reap more of my gains and not leave this much money on that table, maybe take the gains on anything expiring in the next 10 day (which is about $20k) and reduce my longer term positions by 25-40%.

 

I lied, although I did take some gains off the table the last couple of days - I also dove back into the pool and bought some deeper & longer puts. 
My gut says that the virus keeps eating $1 trillion stimulus announcements, and nothing has changed to slow the inevitable slide. 
Maybe a bounce sometime in the next couple of days, but my depth gauge says we are not at the bottom (maybe not even in the shallows yet)

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Went all in on Blue Apron (APRN) after realizing I've grown accustomed to fine dining and eating out and don't know how or particularly like to cook spaghetti and crap like that for my family and needed to subscribe to meal kits.

Up 150%

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

I lied, although I did take some gains off the table the last couple of days - I also dove back into the pool and bought some deeper & longer puts. 
My gut says that the virus keeps eating $1 trillion stimulus announcements, and nothing has changed to slow the inevitable slide. 
Maybe a bounce sometime in the next couple of days, but my depth gauge says we are not at the bottom (maybe not even in the shallows yet)

Man i know that feeling. I keep taking profits and then buying lower. My gut feel is S&P 2000 may be where i start reinvesting parts of my profits on the buy side. However, for the first time since the market shitshow started, I did buy a chunk of call options today on SPY ($250 strike this Friday). I think we zigzag down at a slower pace, so after every big fall,  I will be buying some calls for a rebound. Bought those $2.00 and they are sitting at $3.50 right how. Hoping for an up market tomorrow (or at least in the morning) and then will dump those and wait for the next drop down, rinse repeat.

Overall, I'm still weighted pretty heavily short, but I think the pace of decline will slow somewhat. I'll probably continue to trim my puts and then hope that we see an end to these daily 5-10% swings so that volatility comes way down and at some point can start taking stabs in July/Aug at S&P LEAPS at around 275-300. those fuckers are crazy expensive now. Of course volatility coming down also erodes the premium of my puts, so the timing gets interesting.

Around S&P 2000, I think I will be largely in cash along with the smoldering remains of my stocks, none of which I sold. Have to laugh at my biggest loser, CEQP. My only O&G investment, I bought in almost 4 years ago at $12 and it has reliably paid a pretty good dividend. I suspect I'll see a dividend cut soon, lulz. 

image.png.1cb5f66a1988de25bb5342f0a9c15eb4.png

Edited by Blotto

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I bought some DIS call options @$90 expires 3/27. When I bought them the stock was at ~$80 and it closed at ~$89 so those options have doubled so far. If we get any sort of bounce tomorrow I will sell them and take the profits. 

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I sure hope Beeks doesn't fuck up the concentrated frozen orange juice report

will the next few days be

tp67

 

or will it be

tp49

and yes this is how we all first learned about futures and options and short selling

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17 hours ago, hornbri said:

I bought some DIS call options @$90 expires 3/27. When I bought them the stock was at ~$80 and it closed at ~$89 so those options have doubled so far. If we get any sort of bounce tomorrow I will sell them and take the profits. 

Went ahead and closed those out today, 230% profit in less then 24 hours. Maybe I could have gotten more holding to next week but why get greedy. 

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I've now adddicted to playing swings with leveraged index tracking etfs.  Put fairly tight trailing stops behind the momentum. 1% here, 2% there starts to add up.  If you really want to kick up the dopamine surge take the stop off. YOLOnemoreweek.


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I’ve been buying a little each day this week, none today. Bought me some AMZN, GOOG, BYND, and MPWR. Some mega caps and some small caps. 

One thing I’m aware of is my personal tendencies to chase stocks that are breaking out. I’m concerned if I wait for the all clear market rally and clear Co visibility, then I’ll be back in my tendency of buying high. 

So, trying to catch the falling knife...doesn’t need to be the bottom, just needs to be higher in 3-5 yrs. I’m fortunate to not need the money...others prob have different risk profiles. 
 

you guys trading options, good for you and I hope you keep locking in profits. I’ve done options for a few decades and man does it test emotions. I’ve limited myself to just selling covered calls last few years...used to do naked puts, OOTM Calls, and such...made a dollar or two, lost a bunch on some foolishness, and definitely felt the same rush as standing at craps table. Good luck to you all. 
 

 

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Here is a #stonk story from the home of #STONKS, I post it here as a cautionary tale.
Don't get overly caught up in leverage, option expiration, and greed
(not all of these are in this story and I'll be honest and I'm not sure what everything really means in this tale)

tl:dr - dude loses more that $1 million more than he has in his account, and is looking at bankruptcy

 

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So - as the preweekend close approaches this friday session, do I take some off the table, or put on more risk?

correct answer below - at least I hope its close to correct

take some near term profits off the table - because that is never a bad choice


reinvest in something mid term maybe out to 5-31 or 6-30, not that I think I'll hold them that long

good luck to all as you make your guesses!

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On 3/19/2020 at 4:35 PM, Wally Fairway said:

What is this balanced portfolio that I hear people talking about?

Asking for a friend whose allocation looks like this
Cash - 24%
Long equity - 49%
Short equity - 27%

and that short equity is puts that at today's closing price have an notional value of 4.5x the total portfolio value
the position was less leveraged at the start of the day, but my friend couldn't resist buying into todays closing rise in prices
and most of that equity is to cover a portion of the puts, so if I end up in the hospital the broker can exercise the options as they mature in the money until 3-31

How do I tell my someone that in addition to have to clear my browser history that they also should close out my option positions...is the a medic-alert bracelet for that???

Moving this to the #stonks thread

So my friend sold some today and bought some todays, and here is their rebalance portfolio

Cash - 25%
Long equity - 48%
Short equity - 27%

short equity notional value is now 4.8x  of portfolio value

and here is a picture of them, 64+ hours before the market opens on Monday (that is if it opens)

Image result for nervously waiting\ gif

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Direxion Changes Objectives Of Ten Leveraged Funds To Address Extreme Market Conditions, While Also Closing Eight Funds Due to Limited Interest Since Launch

Funds' Exposure will be reduced from 300% to 200%

NEW YORK, March 20, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Recent and near unprecedented volatility across global markets, driven by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price war, has dramatically increased the explicit and implicit cost of trading in the energy and commodities markets. While volatility will subside at some point, the ability to cost-effectively and efficiently access these markets may remain challenged for some time.

In consideration of the best interests of shareholders, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has approved changes to the names, investment objectives, and investment strategies of 10 leveraged ETFs (each, a "Fund" and collectively, the "Funds"), based on the recommendation of the Funds' adviser, Rafferty Asset Management, LLC.

Effective May 19, 2020, each of the Funds' names will be changed as follows:

Current Fund Name

New Fund Name

Ticker

Direxion Daily MSCI Brazil Bull 3X Shares

Direxion Daily MSCI Brazil Bull 2X Shares

BRZU

Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X Shares

Direxion Daily Russia Bull 2X Shares

RUSL

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares

NUGT

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 3X Shares

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares

DUST

Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares

Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares

JNUG

Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3X Shares

Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares

JDST

Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares

Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares

ERX

Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares

Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares

ERY

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 3X Shares

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares

GUSH

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 3X Shares

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares

DRIP

Currently, each of the Fund's investment objectives is to seek daily leveraged, or daily inverse leveraged, investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% (for the Funds with Bull in their names) or -300% (for the Funds with Bear in their names) of the performance of the Fund's respective underlying index. Effective May 19, 2020, each of the Fund's investment objectives will be changed to seek daily leveraged, or daily inverse leveraged, investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% or -200% of the performance of the Fund's respective underlying index, as shown below:

Fund

Underlying Index

New Daily Leveraged
Investment Objective

Direxion Daily MSCI Brazil Bull 2X Shares

MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index

200%

Direxion Daily Russia Bull 2X Shares

MVIS Russia Index

200%

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares

NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index

200%

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares

-200%

Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index

200%

Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares

-200%

Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares

Energy Select Sector Index

200%

Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares

-200%

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares

S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index

200%

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares

-200%

Fund Closings

Due to the their inability to attract sufficient investment assets, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close eight ETFs (each, a "Fund" and collectively, the "Funds"), based on the recommendation of the funds' adviser, Rafferty Asset Management, LLC. Rafferty believes they cannot continue to operate the Funds in an economically efficient manner. As a result, the Board concluded that liquidating and closing the Funds would be in the best interest of the Funds and their shareholders.

The Funds closing are as follows:

Fund

Ticker

Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X Shares

RUSS

Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3X Shares

GASL

Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 3X Shares

GASX

Direxion Daily MSCI Developed Markets Bear 3X Share

DPK

Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bear 3X Shares

MIDZ

Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bear 3X Shares

WDRW

Direxion Daily MSCI European Financials Bull 2X Shares

EUFL

Direxion Daily Total Bond Market Bear 1X Shares

SAGG

The Funds will cease trading on the NYSE Arca, Inc. ("NYSE") and will be closed to purchase by investors as of the close of regular trading on the NYSE on March 27, 2020 (the "Closing Date").  The Funds will not accept purchase orders after the Closing Date.

Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund prior to the Closing Date, and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. However, from March 27, 2020  through April 06, 2020 (the "Liquidation Date") shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for a Fund's shares during this time period. Between the Closing Date and the Liquidation Date, each Fund will be in the process of closing down and liquidating its portfolio. This process will result in a Fund increasing its cash holdings and, as a consequence, not tracking its underlying index, which is inconsistent with each Fund's investment objective and strategy.

On or about the Liquidation Date, each Fund will liquidate its assets and distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders who have not previously redeemed or exchanged their shares.  These distributions are taxable events. In addition, these payments to shareholders will include accrued capital gains and dividends, if any. As calculated on the Liquidation Date, each Fund's net asset value will reflect the costs of closing the Fund. Once the distributions are complete, the Funds will terminate.

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I have no gut feel as to where the market goes tomorrow, on Friday it felt like we were on the cusp of a National stay at home proclamation but "only" Cali, NY, Illinois, NJ and Connecticut have sheltered. I don't really believe the futures give that great an insight, as we've seen the market make abrupt changes in direction recently. 

S-P-limit-calculator-3-23-2020

 

And this will be me at about 9:29 tomorrow morning 
Image result for airplane nervous gif

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So any suggestions on a stock or 3 to pick up now? I have a little play money, so don't mind risky with high upside. Not planning on holding for long.

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45 minutes ago, HoustonHorn said:

So any suggestions on a stock or 3 to pick up now? I have a little play money, so don't mind risky with high upside. Not planning on holding for long.

My play money high risk, short term holding is: EDZ triple bearish emerging markets ETF

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On 3/23/2020 at 5:15 PM, Rusty Shackelford said:

My play money high risk, short term holding is: EDZ triple bearish emerging markets ETF

I'm a relative novice...seems a triple leveraged ETF is pretty much a daily play. That's a little more short-term than I was thinking. Was thinking next 1-3 month timeframe as we "hopefully" move past the CV panic. Any stocks/funds that have been beaten up due to the uncertainty, but likely aren't impacted significantly by the CV so should bounce back quickly.

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18 hours ago, HoustonHorn said:

I'm a relative novice...seems a triple leveraged ETF is pretty much a daily play. That's a little more short-term than I was thinking. Was thinking next 1-3 month timeframe as we "hopefully" move past the CV panic. Any stocks/funds that have been beaten up due to the uncertainty, but likely aren't impacted significantly by the CV so should bounce back quickly.

Semiconductors.  They are already showing relative strength compared to other sectors.  $SMH is a pretty comprehensive index ETF.

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Posted (edited)

Are we going to get our standard lunchtime SPY rally? 259 seems to be pretty solid resistance

Edited by Continental Op

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1 minute ago, Continental Op said:

Are we going to get our standard lunchtime SPY rally?

as opposed to the rally that started when the Unemployment claims number was released an hour before the market opened; well really on Monday when the bail out started to seem eminent?
I closed out all of my remaining March/April and May puts an a small gain today - having left a much larger gain waiting for the bounce to show itself as a dead cat bounce...now my gains look like a dead cat. 

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Dumped last of my TSLA shares yesterday. It’ll prob rally long term and I might buy in again at some point, but wanted to book some profits this week based on the recent rally. It’s volatility was a bit distracting for me, so it’s gone. 

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5 hours ago, stone oak said:

spacer.png

needs moar fire, 
i didn't buy anything into the teeth of this runup
which means it will likely test the March lows again in the next week

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Posted (edited)

I have some mid May SPY/Disney/Vanguard Real Estate puts open and I'm trying to figure out whether I want to dump those before end of the week mayhem or not. 

Edited by Continental Op

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I bought ZM last week.  I was extremely uncomfortable buying a stock with a 1700 PE ratio, but I rationalized that when a company's name is becoming a verb, PE ratios are irrelevant.

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34 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I bought ZM last week.  I was extremely uncomfortable buying a stock with a 1700 PE ratio, but I rationalized that when a company's name is becoming a verb, PE ratios are irrelevant.

No worries man, when the dust settles on this mess, you may find yourself holding a stock with a much more reasonable 500 PE.

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1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

I bought ZM last week.  I was extremely uncomfortable buying a stock with a 1700 PE ratio, but I rationalized that when a company's name is becoming a verb, PE ratios are irrelevant.

atleast you didnt accidentally buy  Zoom Technologies (ZOOM) like those other idiots.  So you're atleast 1 step ahead.

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10 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

atleast you didnt accidentally buy  Zoom Technologies (ZOOM) like those other idiots.  So you're atleast 1 step ahead.

added ZOOM into my watchlist earlier.

source.gif

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11 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

atleast you didnt accidentally buy  Zoom Technologies (ZOOM) like those other idiots.  So you're atleast 1 step ahead.

Ha, it's in my page history, but I assume I noticed it was traded as a pink sheet and had average volume = 100K, so I figured it out on my own.

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Quote

On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission suspended trading of Zoom Technologies stock until April 9. This comes after more and more people worldwide are having to work remotely due to the coronavirus from China outbreak. And in turn, employers are turning to video conferencing tools from Zoom Video in order to connect with their employees.

Because of this, ZM stock has gained nearly 40% in the past two weeks and investors have taken notice. When going to buy shares, though, many people have apparently confused the two similar-sounding companies.

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

This issue has caused a 108% rise in the ZOOM stock over the same two-week period, and nearly 900% year-to-date. This is the second time this has happened in nearly a month, and now the SEC is stepping in.

“The Commission temporarily suspended trading in the securities of ZOOM because of concerns about the adequacy and accuracy of publicly available information concerning ZOOM, including its financial condition and its operations, if any, in light of the absence of any public disclosure by the company since 2015; and concerns about investors confusing this issuer with a similarly named NASDAQ-listed issuer, providing communications services, which has seen a rise in share price during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” the SEC said.

10 Undervalued Stocks Crashing on the Coronavirus Pandemic

ZM stock was up 7.3% on Friday afternoon.

 

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So I thought I'd give an April Fools stonk update

my portfolio is now

Cash 31%
Long equity 51%
Short equity (puts) 18%

That is after buying puts into yesterdays close that added about 3.2% to my short equity position.
what do you want guarantees, these are option not appliances? life is messy
like grandma - I like riding the roller coaster, I don't want to ride on the merry-go-round

Great movie

 

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3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

So I thought I'd give an April Fools stonk update

That is after buying puts into yesterdays close that added about 3.2% to my short equity position.

I've sold about 30% of the puts I bought yesterday, and covered about 45% of the investment, it reduces the potential upside but also lowers the amount of risk. 
Take some gains, nobody ever went broke taking profits ...... 

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It’s been mentioned in the whoa thread but y’all need to check this out. Dave Portnoy, the Barstool douchebag, is live streaming his foray into day trading. He has no experience and doesn’t know shit. He probably trading $5 million and was up a couple of hundred grand going into today and thought he was a genius. Now he’s long 50k shares of Boeing at $139 and down almost half a million. It’s very entertaining watch. 
https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente

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Cashed in half of my mid-May DIS, VNQ, and SPY puts today.  Starting to think about taking some nibbles on long positions with the money I actually take seriously. 

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