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2020 Senate Elections


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8 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It's the smart play.  Manchin was always smarter.  His endorsement doesn't mean jack shit to Collins' voters.  But him doing that matters to WV voters.

Machin gives ZERO fucks.

He's seriously looking at getting his job back as Governor.  He'd probably win too.  It appears Manchin would pick his replacement who would serve through a special election in November 2022.  

Edited by Js1
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On 4/26/2019 at 6:01 PM, Bama Chick said:

Go Stacey!
 

She's not running.

I think she really wants the Kemp rematch in 2022.

Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson is the frontrunner and just jumped in. 

The Senate is literal flaming garbage and no one worth a shit (Beto, Abrams, Bullock) wants to be associated with that dumpster fire.  Mitch McConnell has made the Senate the worst place to work in America. 

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Pussy ass bitch

Never ask a Castro brother to do something that requires courage and conviction and putting it on the line.  And Julian running for POTUS in the most crowded Democratic field in decades doesn't count because he has no chance and there's no repercussions when he drops out in August. 

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/05/01/joaquin-castro-wont-challenge-texas-sen-john-cornyn-marking-second-pass-senate-run-2-cycles

 

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1. The Senate is the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked, and also:

2. Democrats see such a narrow path to sustained power as long as Republicans continue to dominate in enough rural states to maintain control (i.e., there's at least 18 states that will probably never ever elect a Democrat to the Senate again, and then you only need to pick off a seat here and there in the other 32 states which is super not hard to do), which leads to:

3. Fuck being in a basically permanent minority led by the gutless wonder Chuck Schumer who would probably win control in 2020 by falling into his own ass and then fail to do anything to ensure some sort of prolonged path (i.e., PR and DC statehood) and immediately lose control in 2022.

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39 minutes ago, tucker said:

There has to be more going on. No way so many people sit out when there should be a tide of sentiment to allow Ds to pick up senate seats. 

Why is there a tide of sentiment to pick up senate seats in 20? 

A)  The tide was in favor of Democrats in 2018 and 3 incumbents in Trump states lost, but some other closer than expected races in Trump states for Democrats (Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, Debbie Stabenow) - Democrats only topped 1 GOP incumbent in a Clinton state and picked up an open seat in a Trump state.  We could easily have another huge disparity between the House and Senate all over again.

B) In 2020, Democrats need 3 (with the Presidency) or 4 overall.  They already start basically down 1 with Doug Jones up in ALABAMA in a presidential state.  Then they need to knock off 3 (or 4) incumbents - Gardner, Collins, Tillis, Perdue, McSally, Ernst.  Slim pickins and they can't lose any others, such as New Hampshire (barely a Clinton state) or Minnesota or Michigan. 

C) Potentially 2016 all over again - lots of "winnable" races for Democrats that followed presidential coattails.  Could happen again. 

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Holy Christ what is happening to this pathetic joke of a party!?

 

You'd like to think that all parties talked and decided Hegar could go along with her run while Castro continues to lock down his district and possibly runs in another race later.  Perhaps not, but Hegar definitely has an uphill climb.

An early poll that doesn't mean a ton except Cornyn starts with some healthy rope.

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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I also note there's a fantastic crop of candidates for Colorado and Mark Kelly in Arizona (two most likely to be winnable races).  A top tier contender in NC (Jackson) or Maine will go a long way to making the +4 a viable reality.  And don't sleep on Tomlinson in GA.

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47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why is there a tide of sentiment to pick up senate seats in 20? 

A)  The tide was in favor of Democrats in 2018 and 3 incumbents in Trump states lost, but some other closer than expected races in Trump states for Democrats (Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, Debbie Stabenow) - Democrats only topped 1 GOP incumbent in a Clinton state and picked up an open seat in a Trump state.  We could easily have another huge disparity between the House and Senate all over again.

B) In 2020, Democrats need 3 (with the Presidency) or 4 overall.  They already start basically down 1 with Doug Jones up in ALABAMA in a presidential state.  Then they need to knock off 3 (or 4) incumbents - Gardner, Collins, Tillis, Perdue, McSally, Ernst.  Slim pickins and they can't lose any others, such as New Hampshire (barely a Clinton state) or Minnesota or Michigan. 

C) Potentially 2016 all over again - lots of "winnable" races for Democrats that followed presidential coattails.  Could happen again. 

A deeply unpopular president will turn out voters to vote against him and help carry down ballot candidates. 

Edited by tucker
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2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Holy Christ what is happening to this pathetic joke of a party!?

 

Umm--good.  The Castros are worthless.  They define the term "empty suit."  

MJ has a better chance against Cornyn.  And now she'll have a clear path through the primary.

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You'd like to think that all parties talked and decided Hegar could go along with her run while Castro continues to lock down his district and possibly runs in another race later.  Perhaps not, but Hegar definitely has an uphill climb.
An early poll that doesn't mean a ton except Cornyn starts with some healthy rope.
 
I think a long-term polling at 29% shows he's vulnerable.
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I am pretty surprised Castro is passing. I'd say maybe he doesn't have higher ambitions, but that isn't the Castro brothers' MO. I was hoping a primary of Castro vs MJ would get a head start of engaging the Beto coalition (through MJ), as well as latino voters in South Texas and San Antonio that Beto failed to reach in his campaign (through Castro). Maybe he is holding off for Lt. Gov - Dan Patrick is right there with Ted Cruz as the most disliked politician in TX and can absolutely be beaten by a strong D candidate in 2022. That is the only thing I can think of. Even as Texas trends purple, challenging Abbott is a suicide mission, so I don't think it's the Governor's Mansion he is waiting for. 

Anyway, just donated $10 to MJ. She gonna need it.

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This is entirely their MO - sitting out big races that might lead to a loss. They’re gutless. I don’t understand why anyone thinks of them as the future of the TDP - it’s people like Beto, Hegar, Allred, Fletcher, Ortiz Jones - they actually took shots

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11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No democratic system of government is going to hold up when you have cocaine Mitch McConnells in power systematically working to dismantle democracy. 

Maybe that's a sign that that system of government shouldn't hold up.

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On 5/1/2019 at 5:52 PM, bad_teammate said:

No clear path! We need some heat to draw attention. 

Hotly-contested primaries lead to invaluable media attention and fiercer loyalties.

Pretty much this.

There were some great primary match-ups in 2018, like the Stacys in the GA governor's race and Fletcher vs. Moser in TX-7. The winners of these primaries are the stronger candidate in the general election.

Thanks to Joaquin, we won't know if Hegar really is the best option to beat Cornyn. Some of his would-be supporters now might remain invisible to party GOTV efforts, which is an overlooked reason to get high turnout in primary elections.

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On 5/4/2019 at 2:23 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

"An outspoken fiscal conservative, Enzi has been vocal about the country’s fiscal crisis and was a leading proponent of the GOP tax cut plan that passed in 2017."

 

lol so fiscally responsible

 

 

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Dem operative who ran a social media experiment to see if you could change an election in Alabama: https://www.npr.org/2019/05/24/726536757/episode-915-how-to-meddle-in-an-election

His conclusion isn’t that he got jones elected but that he was a significant portion of the win margin. The scary part is how he didn’t think it was difficult.

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