Jump to content
futureman

$9.95 worth every penny

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

What a goofy 9.95er write-up... maybe a Middle Schooler wrote it??

https://247sports.com/college/texas/Article/College-football-playoff-projections-2020-148535312/

 

Way-too-early CFB Playoff rankings, debates and outliers

By:  TREY SCOTT Jun 25, 12:06 PM

Quote

Earlier this week, the national team at 247Sports projected a 2020 College Football Playoff field of Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama and Oklahoma.  The tidy four-team field features the three obvious frontrunners plus an Oklahoma team that under Lincoln Riley has been a safe bet to make the Playoff, even if the results are mixed upon arrival. But the reality is that there was little consensus among the eight individual voters about how the Playoff will look.

To wit: The Sooners were left off two ballots (voting was 1-6) altogether and were No. 6 in another. Georgia and Oregon tied for the fifth spot but took different paths to get there. The Ducks were left off five ballots, but were buoyed by a fourth-place vote. Georgia was left off three ballots and didn’t receive a vote higher than fifth.

In total, 11 teams received votes. Florida only appeared on two ballots, but the Gators were No. 4 on both of them. Notre Dame received four total votes, including two fifth-place votes.

Penn State grabbed two votes, while Oklahoma State and Wisconsin snared one apiece. The Cowboys have been a well-documented crush of Barton Simmons for a while now, and are No. 4 for him. The Badgers were No. 6 in the one ballot they appeared in.

The top three schools — Ohio State, Clemson and Alabama — each received votes to be, well, Nos. 1, 2 and 3. The Buckeyes had four first-place votes; Clemson and Bama had two, but the Tigers got the edge because five voters slotted Alabama third.

No ballot had a top-4 with two teams from the same conference.

Only one ballot was without repeat conference representation (one team from each Power 5 school, plus Notre Dame).

Another ballot had two conferences with multiple reps (Ohio State and Penn State; Alabama and Georgia). Somewhat surprisingly, it was the only one of that ilk, which is a testament to how the voters view Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish appeared on 50 percent of the ballots. That’s better than Oregon, Penn State and even Florida can say. As mentioned above, it’s notable that the Gators, perhaps the buzziest team in the preseason, only appeared on 25 percent of the ballots.

One other Florida wrinkle: The Gators appeared on three less ballots than SEC East rival Georgia. But Georgia’s highest landing spot was fifth. Nobody picked the Bulldogs to make the Playoff, yet the two voters who went with Florida both put them in the Playoff. Now that’s ride-or-die.

HOW THE PLAYOFF COMPARES TO THE TOP 25 RANKINGS

Another preseason projection the 247Sports team has done this month is the Top 25. Here, voters were asked to simply rank the Top 25 teams. Slotting the playoff asks for a bit more intuitive logic and guessing what the committee might do. Let’s compare the top 10ish rankings of the two.

Playoff

1. Ohio State

2. Clemson

3. Alabama

4. Oklahoma

t-5. Georgia

t-5. Oregon

7. Florida

8. Notre Dame

9. Penn State

10. Oklahoma State

11. Wisconsin

Top 25

1. Ohio State

2. Clemson

3. Alabama

4. Georgia

5. Penn State

6. Florida

7. Oklahoma

8. Notre Dame

9. LSU

10. Wisconsin

A few snap judgements there:

- Oklahoma is not regarded as an elite in the Top 25 voting, but was a reliable top-4 team for many as it’s the best team in its conference and has made the playoff the last three seasons (and four of the six). Oregon got a similar treatment, as many opted to include the Pac-12 in their ballot.

- Penn State went the other way. It isn’t the best team in the conference, but is regarded as a superior team to Oklahoma. If the Nittany Lions lose at home to Ohio State, will they have enough juice in their resume? A non-conference slate of Kent State, Virginia Tech and San Jose State probably won’t gonna cut it.

- LSU is the lone top 10 team in the Top 25 to not receive a vote in the playoff ballot, but that’s not at all surprising considering it’s still just the fourth-best SEC team in said Top 25.

- The lowest-ranked team in the Top 25 to receive a mention on the playoff ballot was Oklahoma State at No. 15.

- Teams other than LSU who rank ahead of Oklahoma State in the Top 25 who did not receive a vote in the playoff ballot: No. 12 Texas A&M, t-13. Auburn, t-13. Texas. The Cowboys stole the Longhorns’ Big 12 sleeper thunder, while the Aggies and the Tigers are simply very good teams per the national scale who still figure to be overmatched in the SEC. The question of which of these teams is the most likely playoff team was poised to two 247Sports writers.

WHICH OF THOSE 3 TEAMS IS MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE PLAYOFF?

"Asking who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff points to a team's perceived ceiling entering the season. While they have to replace more than A&M, Auburn and Texas, I think LSU has the raw talent on hand to have the best shot at making a playoff run," Charles Power said. "Sure, there's perhaps more variance in LSU's season and there are some massive shoes to fill, starting at quarterback and extending to most position groups and the coordinators. But as we saw in 2019, championship contention is in order if things click at LSU. The Tigers lost a bunch of key players but return the nation's top receiver in JaMarr Chase, have a few young backs with talent and are adding two five-star pass catchers in Arik Gilbert and Kayshon Boutte. The defense will be similarly young, but talented. This pick is also about the other schools in consideration. When accounting for key spots like quarterback and the coaching staff, you'd say A&M returns the most. I considered going with them, but the Aggies still need to show they can break through to double-digit wins with Jimbo Fisher and Kellen Mond. Texas likely has the easiest path in the Big 12 but I had them lower than anyone in our Top 25 poll. Auburn loses a bunch on their defense from a team that finished behind LSU. So I don't feel great about my LSU pick, but I'm going with the highest upside, which comes with a nice portion of unknown."

Chris Hummer was more bullish on the Longhorns.  "The answer will be whoever emerges on Sept. 12 between Texas and LSU in Death Valley," Hummer said. "LSU is the most talented and most tested of the three SEC West teams under consideration – Auburn and Texas A&M have schedule and quarterback issues I just can't ignore. Meanwhile, Texas is led by arguably the third-best quarterback in the country, Sam Ehlinger, alongside an experienced and talented roster made for contention (pushing on the top five in 247Sports Team Talent Composite). Who wins? At this point I am leaning toward Texas. I realize how silly that might sound with the Tigers coming off a 15-0 season and a national championship. Texas, for its part, floundered a season ago to 8-5. But the Longhorns bring back the large majority of their roster and Tiger Stadium won't have near the bite it usually does due inevitable crowd size limitations. LSU will be fine by year's end. I just think Texas is positioned to start faster. From there, the Longhorns need to run through Big 12 play with just a single loss. Likely? I wouldn't bet on it. But I'd take my chances with Texas beating Oklahoma one out of two times as opposed to this iteration of LSU finishing at 12-1 or better for the second straight year. I'd still bet on the Sooners in the Big 12. But the Longhorns are positioned to play spoiler in both the Big 12 and nationally."

FORECASTING THE PLAYOFF DEBATES WE'LL HAVE

It’s impossible to predict what we’ll be bickering about come Tuesday nights in November (wait a minute …) but here are some crackpot talking points we’ll try to get ahead of the curve on now.

IF CLEMSON, OKLAHOMA, PENN STATE, OREGON AND ALABAMA ALL GO UNDEFEATED, WHO GETS LEFT OUT?

Says Brad Crawford: "Without a marquee non-conference win this season (sorry, Tennessee), the Sooners would be the odd-man out here and Playoff expansion talks would hit a fever pitch soon thereafter. Clemson gets the nod over Oklahoma due to its win over Notre Dame, despite the Sooners likely flexing more victories over Top 25 competition than the Tigers. The ACC's SOS gets beat up every year and rightfully so for the most part, but Clemson has the trump card this season with the trip to South Bend.

"Penn State and Alabama, as unbeaten champions of the Big Ten and SEC, are in, leaving Oregon as the team fighting for the final spot with the Sooners. But the Ducks would have the early September victory over Ohio State in their back pocket along with a matching number of wins over ranked teams if USC and Arizona State are formidable.

"I'm all for selection Sunday chaos and this scenario would deliver."

Says Trey Scott: "I’m with Brad. We’d be down to Oklahoma and Clemson here, and I don’t think there’d be that much of a debate.  The Big 12 is better than the ACC, and Oklahoma’s schedule is definitely more challenging, though Clemson will have a road game at Notre Dame. But this is where recency bias comes into play (correctly, in my opinion). This current T-Law-constructed iteration of Clemson has proven itself time and time again to be playoff-worthy and title-winning good. Oklahoma has lost three straight playoff games, and two of those were with Heisman-winning QBs. The committee knows this. Plus, I expect the Tigers to simply *look* better than Oklahoma all season. In a quest to pick the four best teams, they’ll pass the eye test with flying colors.

"Sorry, Sooners. You’re out."

CAN OREGON MAKE THE PLAYOFF IF OHIO STATE BEATS THE DUCKS IN WEEK 2?

Says Brandon Marcello: "Call me crazy, but I'll pose a more improbable question: is it possible for a two-loss Pac-12 team to reach the playoff, even after one-loss teams failed to advance since Washington was demolished by Alabama in 2016? It's difficult (and improbable, as I said), but it's not impossible. What helps Oregon in this situation is Ohio State will be ranked among the top 3 teams in the country, and unlike the loss to top-15 Auburn last season, a setback against the Buckeyes will not hurt the Ducks as much in the long run. Oregon would most likely advance to the playoff with only one loss on the resume, but I really do believe it's possible a two-loss Oregon team could reach the playoff, too. Yes, it's a stretch, and it only happens if the Ducks are Pac-12 champions with a win against a top-10 team (and the second loss is against a ranked opponent on the road). This might also be the year Oklahoma takes a step back, paving the way possibly for a two-loss Big 12 champion. If that happens, give me the Pac-12 over the Big 12 in the playoff. Again, that's just a wild idea but one to ponder because of a tougher non-conference schedule for Oregon when compared to last season. Then again, Oregon can quiet all that what-if chatter with a victory against the Buckeyes. It'll be tough with a rebuilt offensive line, but remember Ohio State is also rebuilding along the defensive front. Crazier things have happened.

"As for the original question: there's no doubt in my mind a one-loss Oregon team with an early-season setback against top-3 Ohio State would reach the playoff."

Says Josh Pate: "If Oregon loses in competitive fashion to an eventual Big Ten champion and 1- or 2-seed Ohio State, it may actually serve the Ducks well. As long as every other P5 conference doesn’t produce undefeated champions AND Notre Dame or an impressive 1-loss non-conference champ doesn’t upset the apple cart, Oregon will have plenty of time to find a groove, build momentum, and cap things with a convincing Pac-12 Championship win."

WHO HAS THE BETTER CHANCE AS A 1-LOSS NON-CHAMPION: PENN STATE OR FLORIDA?

Says Barton Simmons: "If we’re entertaining Florida and Penn State as one-loss non-conference champions, then we’re obviously assuming they’d be getting in as a second team in their conference. And I’ll assume the losses are to conference champions Georgia and Ohio State respectively.

"The schedules are remarkably similar. Virginia Tech and Florida State as non-conference opponents are analogous. While I’ll grant LSU more upside than Michigan, those two conference opponents fit a similar mold as resume builders. Then there’s Penn State’s Iowa and Indiana parallel to Florida’s Kentucky and Tennessee. What teams like Northwestern, Nebraska, South Carolina or Ole Miss look like could be pretty important.

"But the reason this is ultimately such a tough call to make in a hypothetical scenario is that the playoff committee is still ultimately going off of an eyeball test. You can flaunt numbers around and talk about resumes but the playoff committee typically goes with who it thinks is the better team in a very subjective manner. Anecdotally, it feels like Penn State is more apt for the big scoring margins with Florida more inclined to grind out wins. There’s really only a sliver of truth to that with Penn State’s average scoring margin last year at +15.4 and Florida only two points below at +13.5 (12th and 14th nationally respectively).

"So ultimately the tie-breaker to me is the conference around them. If Penn State is a one-loss non-conference champion, it’s probably the only other viable option out of the Big Ten. If Florida is a one-loss, non-conference champion, there’s still a scenario in which Texas A&M, Auburn or Alabama has a better resume than it does out of the West. There’s also the possibility that the team that beat it, Georgia, loses in the championship game and would then be above Florida in the pecking order. So based on all of this conjecture and prophesying, I’ll go with Penn State as the more likely playoff team in our scenario."

Says Bud Elliott: "This is a fun question. For my answer, I am going to make some assumptions.  First, I will assume that Penn State's loss comes to Ohio State and that Florida's loss comes to Georgia. These are the most likely losses as they are the only games in which the Nittany Lions and Gators are underdogs in the Vegas futures odds, though the lines are under a touchdown for both.

"Second, I will assume that because of that loss, neither team makes the conference title game and are thus a 1-loss non-champs.

"Third, I will assume that both teams lose by a touchdown, which was not a result of some flukish circumstance.

"So let's examine the wins. I will use consensus Vegas odds to project the win-loss records of the Penn State and Florida opponents.

"Penn State would have wins over a probable 9-3 Michigan, 8-4 Virginia Tech team, and bowl teams in Iowa, Indiana, and Nebraska. It's possible that opponents like Northwestern, Michigan State, Kent State, or even Maryland could make a bowl as well, but are not favored to at the moment. Penn State would probably have two wins over ranked teams and three more wins over bowl teams.

"Florida, on the other hand, would have wins over a probable 9-3 LSU squad, and bowl teams in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida State, though I think the odds that one of Tennessee, Kentucky, or FSU end up ranked are non-zero. It's possible, though not probable, that opponents like South Carolina Missouri, or Ole Miss could make a bowl, but they are not currently projected to do so by Vegas. So Florida would have a win over one or two ranked teams plus another two bowl teams. And the quality of the ranked teams (9-3 Michigan v. 9-3 LSU and, say, 8-4 Virginia Tech and 8-4 Florida State) are very comparable.

"So the edge in the wins would go to Penn State, slightly. The College Football Playoff committee has a trend of not caring as much about losses as it does wins, however, it is not something which is totally ignored.

"If the resume of wins are close, the quality of the loss would also be considered. And here Penn State would likely have an advantage because it would have lost to Ohio State, which according to Vegas has about a 55-percent chance of winning the Big 10, while Florida would have lost to Georgia, which has only about a 25% chance of winning its league. So the chance that Penn State's lone loss would have come against the eventual champion of its league is about double that of Florida's.

"Additionally, Ohio State is projected to go 11-1 in the regular season, while Georgia is projected at 10-2. There is a probable chance that in this scenario, Penn State would have lost to a 13-0 Big Ten champion Ohio State, while Florida would have lost to a 11-2 or 10-3 non-champ Georgia team.

"By no means would this be a slam dunk case, but Penn State does seem to have an edge both in quality of wins and in quality of opponent to which it lost."

 

Edited by LTtxfan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/2/2020 at 8:25 AM, LTtxfan said:
84733d0c8b3e09b1682aab222b495476_bigger.      Brian Perroni     @Perroni247
10h
This is not a political post. This is just so my Texas Tech followers may enjoy an image. Tommy Tuberville's bus caught on fire https://bi
 
Image
 

Tuberville is new to this KKK stuff. He didn’t know he was supposed light the cross after it was out of the bus.

Edited by Beau Vine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


mpu


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Recruiting ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Help ... For Sale ... Politics ... Board Discussion
×
×
  • Create New...