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DonkeyCigars

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Buying my first Top shot pack in a while.  Playoff series pack.  I looked at a few of the sites that calculate the value of your overall collection. Ouch, painful drop in value for me. At this point, I don't see a reason to sell anything. 

EDIT: Pulled a Kawhi Leonard playoff #300 out of 12K. Not low double digit but one of the best serial #s I've pulled from a largish supply.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Buying my first Top shot pack in a while.  Playoff series pack.  I looked at a few of the sites that calculate the value of your overall collection. Ouch, painful drop in value for me. At this point, I don't see a reason to sell anything. 

EDIT: Pulled a Kawhi Leonard playoff #300 out of 12K. Not low double digit but one of the best serial #s I've pulled from a largish supply.

Solid pull. I'll likely get a pack but not hoping for much. I got the Rare pack last week and got some shitty Sabonis card. Not near enough points for next weeks Holo drop.

In terms of selling, if you want to sell your best opportunity is between now and the Holo drop next Thur as people will be buying to try and qualify. I think there could be an even further dip in the offseason where you can find some deals (or maybe buy back your stuff even lower) I'll like just hold my stuff similarly... down probably 30-40% at this point.

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On 6/11/2021 at 1:18 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Buying my first Top shot pack in a while.  Playoff series pack.  I looked at a few of the sites that calculate the value of your overall collection. Ouch, painful drop in value for me. At this point, I don't see a reason to sell anything. 

EDIT: Pulled a Kawhi Leonard playoff #300 out of 12K. Not low double digit but one of the best serial #s I've pulled from a largish supply.

That Kawhi is a nice pull. Looks like you're in the $150-$200 range. I've still been buying at each pack drop. Returns haven't been great, but according to moment ranks and the spreadsheet I created, I could still sell off everything for a few hundred in profit. But that margin has been generally declining with each new pack over the last couple months. The playoff pack turned it around a bit though. The Ben McLemore playoff card got me $39, and I also pulled a Lebron in that pack that has a current low ask of $23. The third card was a garbage one at $3. But, if I sold all three, that would be $65 in a $14 pack. Unfortunately nowhere near being eligible for the holo drop though.

Edited by SquishMitten
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3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I've still been buying at each pack drop. Returns haven't been great, but according to moment ranks and the spreadsheet I created, I could still sell off everything for a few hundred in profit. But that margin has been generally declining with each new pack over the last couple months. The playoff pack turned it around a bit though. The Ben McLemore playoff card got me $39, and I also pulled a Lebron in that pack that has a current low ask of $23. The third card was a garbage one at $3. But, if I sold all three, that would be $65 in a $14 pack. Unfortunately nowhere near being eligible for the holo drop though.

My on-paper loss is because I chased a challenge that cost me a decent amount to win it. When challenges are over, the moments normally see an immediate drop so I decided to hold on. I didn't realize that those moments would see a >50% drop even after the immediate drop. Now I feel I have to hold on, hoping to get closer to even.

I'm also far from the holo drop, and I'm not putting more into this.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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^^ Yeah. That burned me the first and only time I went for a challenge. The reward didn't make up for the loss in value of everything else. Now I've got several cards with a similar >50% loss, and I guess I just have to hope they end up in another challenge sometime in the future. 

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Anybody else trying for the Holo Drop pack on Thursday? $240 for a pack worth $1,500. But you need a 7,500 collector score. Let me know if you want me to post advice on the cheapest way to make the score(it involves buying 250 Hornets moments) 🤷🏻‍♂️

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2 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I feel like I have to see this plan @Irieguy

Ok. So TopShot introduced a complicated system for Collector Score. You get bonuses for completing sets and also for owning all of the players on a team. I targeted the team bonus. You get a “double bonus” for owning all the players that were included in Series 1 and Series 2. Only 2 teams have all of their players from Series 1 also in Series 2, the Timberwolves and Hornets. This means you can get the double bonus by only buying Series 2 moments. So you buy all 12 Hornets players in Series 2. This cost $100 5 days ago but costs $190 now. This double bonus increases the points per common moment for ALL Hornets moments from 12 points to 36. 7500/36 = 209. So you have to buy 197 more Hornets moments. I was able to buy them for $4 each a few days ago. They sell for $8 now. So I was able to get the points for about $900 but it would cost $1,800 now. I expect my $900 in moments to drop to $600 after the pack drop. So I’m risking $300. As of today 9,000 are eligible for the 2,500 packs. By tomorrow I expect to have a 25% chance of a pack. So it’s close on a +EV calculation but I’m in it for the gamboool. 

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On 6/15/2021 at 1:51 PM, Irieguy said:

Anybody else trying for the Holo Drop pack on Thursday? $240 for a pack worth $1,500. But you need a 7,500 collector score. Let me know if you want me to post advice on the cheapest way to make the score(it involves buying 250 Hornets moments) 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

15 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I feel like I have to see this plan @Irieguy

I show 1500 points plus 3800 marketplace points. What will it take for me to 2200 additional points by tomorrow?

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

I show 1500 points plus 3800 marketplace points. What will it take for me to 2200 additional points by tomorrow?

The cheapest way is to do my Hornets method above. That would require buying 62 Hornets players. Plus you have to have all 12 unique players. That would cost probably $600. And the price of those moments I guesstimate would drop to $400 after drop. Same for Timberwolves. Another thing you could do is buy a bunch of $4/$5 Nets / Suns players. Between the daily fantasy contest and challenges those have a better chance of retaining value. But you would have to buy 2,200 / 12 = 184 moments at a cost of $900 ish. 

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13 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

The cheapest way is to do my Hornets method above. That would require buying 62 Hornets players. Plus you have to have all 12 unique players. That would cost probably $600. And the price of those moments I guesstimate would drop to $400 after drop. Same for Timberwolves. Another thing you could do is buy a bunch of $4/$5 Nets / Suns players. Between the daily fantasy contest and challenges those have a better chance of retaining value. But you would have to buy 2,200 / 12 = 184 moments at a cost of $900 ish. 

Is this tied to making the Hornets be your favorite team?

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15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is this tied to making the Hornets be your favorite team?

No. Also, your marketplace spend bonus is locked in. They did the snapshot awhile ago. Any buying or selling will not affect it. 

list of Hornets that you need and the price I paid:

  1. Caleb Martin $4   
  2. Miles Bridges $4 
  3. Rozier $4 
  4. Pj Washington $4 
  5. Hayward $4 
  6. Devonte Graham $4
  7. Cody Zeller $4 
  8. Brad Wanamaker $6 
  9. Cody Martin $8 
  10. Biyambo $10 
  11. Monk $11 
  12. Ball $54

The Ball has gone down in price. The rest up. Once you have those 12, ALL of your Hornets moments earn you 36 points. The final snapshot is at 11AM CT tomorrow and you have to keep the moments until pack release

I want a commission if you get a pack and I don’t. 😡😎

Edited by Irieguy
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20 hours ago, Irieguy said:

No. Also, your marketplace spend bonus is locked in. They did the snapshot awhile ago. Any buying or selling will not affect it. 

list of Hornets that you need and the price I paid:

  1. Caleb Martin $4   
  2. Miles Bridges $4 
  3. Rozier $4 
  4. Pj Washington $4 
  5. Hayward $4 
  6. Devonte Graham $4
  7. Cody Zeller $4 
  8. Brad Wanamaker $6 
  9. Cody Martin $8 
  10. Biyambo $10 
  11. Monk $11 
  12. Ball $54

The Ball has gone down in price. The rest up. Once you have those 12, ALL of your Hornets moments earn you 36 points. The final snapshot is at 11AM CT tomorrow and you have to keep the moments until pack release

I want a commission if you get a pack and I don’t. 😡😎

Good luck to those trying for it. I was 2000 points short and decided against buying up floor moments to get there. If you are going to do that the time was definitely last week/weekend however.

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15 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Good luck to those trying for it. I was 2000 points short and decided against buying up floor moments to get there. If you are going to do that the time was definitely last week/weekend however.

I was the same. the collector score confused me somewhat and I didn't have the time/desire to start buying more moments just to get the chance of winning the holo pack that still costs $200+.  If I had to buy 4 or 5 moments to get over the top, I would have. I wasn't going to buy 40+. I've already been burnt too much with Top Shot.

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7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I was the same. the collector score confused me somewhat and I didn't have the time/desire to start buying more moments just to get the chance of winning the holo pack that still costs $200+.  If I had to buy 4 or 5 moments to get over the top, I would have. I wasn't going to buy 40+. I've already been burnt too much with Top Shot.

I had not see the method above and was figuring close to 100 moments. Knowing I would be buying at prices that would keep rising and then plummet 75% post challenge I figure it was losing $300ish for a 20% shot at $1500 (so almost break even). Figured I would just place a few things for sale and try and buy some decent stuff in the off season.

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On 6/14/2021 at 11:29 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

My on-paper loss is because I chased a challenge that cost me a decent amount to win it. When challenges are over, the moments normally see an immediate drop so I decided to hold on. I didn't realize that those moments would see a >50% drop even after the immediate drop. Now I feel I have to hold on, hoping to get closer to even.

I'm also far from the holo drop, and I'm not putting more into this.

Your first loss is your smallest loss.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Qualified for the 2nd priority drop in TopShot yesterday and scored a Rare pack. Ended up with a decent Giannis which looks like it's selling for a little over $300 so I can make my money back then some. I'm still trying to figure out what to consolidate in to get the best chance of long term getting my account back up to it's highs from March. But even my 1st moments and S1 stuff has died. Still thinking a dip over the off season might present a good buying opportunity.

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On 7/15/2021 at 8:20 AM, ZB'Tejas said:

Qualified for the 2nd priority drop in TopShot yesterday and scored a Rare pack. Ended up with a decent Giannis which looks like it's selling for a little over $300 so I can make my money back then some. I'm still trying to figure out what to consolidate in to get the best chance of long term getting my account back up to it's highs from March. But even my 1st moments and S1 stuff has died. Still thinking a dip over the off season might present a good buying opportunity.

There were tech glitches with this drop so TopShot raffled off some unsold packs from this series. Somehow I scored one with a trae young worth a little north of $200. The moment is part of the current challenge so I assume it’s best to sell. If I really want it, I could buy it back in a few days. Which I wouldn’t.

PSA. There is a current showcase challenge giving away a Westbrook triple double moment. Surpassing Oscar Robertson on the all time list. You have to collect and showcase 10 triple double moments to receive the free moment. You can stack the same moment. As an example buy 10 moments of steven adams on his triple double moment. Less than $100. You have to create the showcase via the challenge page so just don’t buy the moments.

The Westbrook moment might ultimately be cheaper than $100 but topshots collector score logic rewards you in the long run if you play their games. 

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There were tech glitches with this drop so TopShot raffled off some unsold packs from this series. Somehow I scored one with a trae young worth a little north of $200. The moment is part of the current challenge so I assume it’s best to sell. If I really want it, I could buy it back in a few days. Which I wouldn’t.
PSA. There is a current showcase challenge giving away a Westbrook triple double moment. Surpassing Oscar Robertson on the all time list. You have to collect and showcase 10 triple double moments to receive the free moment. You can stack the same moment. As an example buy 10 moments of steven adams on his triple double moment. Less than $100. You have to create the showcase via the challenge page so just don’t buy the moments.
The Westbrook moment might ultimately be cheaper than $100 but topshots collector score logic rewards you in the long run if you play their games. 

Super lucky. Only 250 packs were given away because of the glitch. Did you try and participate in the drop or just qualified?

Good insight on the triple double challenge. There is still good you just have to be on top of things like that. I’ll prob sell my Giannis rare moment since in the challenge since I can get almost $400 for it.


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1 minute ago, ZB'Tejas said:


Super lucky. Only 250 packs were given away because of the glitch. Did you try and participate in the drop or just qualified?

Good insight on the triple double challenge. There is still good you just have to be on top of things like that. I’ll prob sell my Giannis rare moment since in the challenge since I can get almost $400 for it.


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I participated in the drop but was too far down the list. I didn’t experience a problem but happy to take advantage of a free pass that allowed me to buy it.

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I participated in the drop but was too far down the list. I didn’t experience a problem but happy to take advantage of a free pass that allowed me to buy it.

Good for you.

My Giannis just sold for $375. Still thinking I’ll sell a few things and make buy a Luka 1st moment if it drops sub $1500


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10 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:


Good for you.

My Giannis just sold for $375. Still thinking I’ll sell a few things and make buy a Luka 1st moment if it drops sub $1500


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’m eyeing more series 1 moments as those will eventually become more rare as newer seasons/series are larger.

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As someone getting back into card collecting as a hobby (versus as a serious investment), I look back at opportunities I had to get some cards I knew would become more valuable, but passed because I just didn't want to pay THAT much money for something that was "just for fun". I get the feeling Top Shots is going to be very similar.

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On 7/17/2021 at 10:00 PM, tchookem said:

As someone getting back into card collecting as a hobby (versus as a serious investment), I look back at opportunities I had to get some cards I knew would become more valuable, but passed because I just didn't want to pay THAT much money for something that was "just for fun". I get the feeling Top Shots is going to be very similar.

Most baseball cards from back when I was a kid are currently worth about 10% of their price guide values at that time.  

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On 7/15/2021 at 10:15 AM, ZB'Tejas said:

Also, for anyone into Basketball NFTs besides TopShot; Panini launched their project a few weeks ago. Prizm silver packs on are sale now for $49 for 3 cards (only 1 silver). Base packs were $10 but sell out almost immediately.

Following up on this... the last silver pack drop happened a few days ago and I've been working the auctions to try and pick up a few solid cards. Will see if these turn into something  but I figure with the popularity of Prizm physical cards there has to be a little demand there. Bought a KD, Luka, Dirk and a few other rookie silver Prizms.

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I've bought a few new moments on Top Shot lately and very impressed how much smoother the system/process is running now. 

I'm a big fan of the collector score concept to give big spenders/collectors a bigger chance to win top packs. I get that newbie buyers want an equal shot but I think its more fair to give top collectors a better chance. The collector score also discourages people from opening up multiple accounts unless they're willing to spend heavy on each account. 

The final playoff Legendary pack next week is $800. Big time collecting ain't cheap. I would like to keep a Legendary moment but it would be difficult to not immediately flip it.

 

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My biggest problem(?) is not selling. With every pack, there’s still a very high likelihood that you can sell the best card for well more than you paid for the pack, but we’re talking like a $15-$30 profit each time. Would’ve definitely added up, but I keep telling myself they’ll be more valuable later…and so far that’s been wrong every single time. Think the collector score is the biggest factor for my decision making though. Never gonna get a legit shot at real value if I sell everything for a quick, small profit. Still tons of fun in the anticipation of opening packs though.

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18 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

My biggest problem(?) is not selling. With every pack, there’s still a very high likelihood that you can sell the best card for well more than you paid for the pack, but we’re talking like a $15-$30 profit each time. Would’ve definitely added up, but I keep telling myself they’ll be more valuable later…and so far that’s been wrong every single time. Think the collector score is the biggest factor for my decision making though. Never gonna get a legit shot at real value if I sell everything for a quick, small profit. Still tons of fun in the anticipation of opening packs though.

if you sell, I would use some of the proceeds to give yourself a better chance to get even better moments in future drops. Get your collector score up.

Team collections look to be some of the easier collector score multipliers out there. And there some single moments that are required due to a players short tenure with a team. Take the Rockets, you need Westbrook to complete their all-time and S1 collector score. While he does have 8 moments with the rockets, only 1 is listed below $500.

If they keep raising collector score points totals to get higher in the buy queues, collectors will attempt to collect more and more of these team bonuses. Owning some of the bottleneck team moments could be profitable especially from season 1 where supplies were 10% of season 2.

one flaw in this strategy if they released a Olajuwon with a supply of 100. You would immediately lose a CS bonus and that moment would be too expensive to buy. You see this occurring with the thunder. There is only 1 Kevin Durant moment with a minimum of $12k. 

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I collected some cheaper teams and was able to raise my Top Shot collector score enough to qualify for the 1st round of the legendary pack sale today.  A pricey $800 to buy but you're guaranteed 1 of 10 Finals Legendary moments with only 120 serial #s of each.  Plus you get 3 rare and 6 common moments.  I'm guessing that I have a 1 in 10 chance of it.

A cool customer service story with Top Shot. I went for a minor challenge of creating a showcase with 10 specific moments. I completed it but I didn't win the challenge. I emailed their support who discovered that I had screwed up. 100% my fault but as consolation they gave me a free common playoff pack and $25 since I may have misunderstood their rules. Tells me that they're swimming in money and care about their customers.  I've had the opposite experience with Zed racing where they are slow to respond and don't help you out.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Some decent Top shot updates recently. 

  • Allow individual sales up to $1m when previously 250K. This only impacts a limited few people but it should allow for more money to trickle downwards. voodoo NFT economics. 
  • Ended Series (season) 2 minting.
  • Currently testing out in-game minting of new moments at the NBA Summer League in Vegas.

The last one is pretty cool that I bet the NBA will love. I believe that you have to physically be at a game to be eligible to buy a moment, if one is created for that game. I assume there is some element of a QR code at a booth or at your seat . Go to a game, see LeBron have a monster block and you're one of 3,000 that bought the moment from inside the arena.  I see this introducing Top Shot to (wealthier) NBA fans who are not up on the latest crypto craze but enjoy their corporate seats/luxury box. "I don't get it but my kid loves them so let me buy the digital trading card as a present for him."

Hopefully Top Shot does something to prevent selling of the QR code itself.

I decided to buy/gamble on the only 5-badge moment. A rookie (Nwora?) that plays for the Bucks. The 5th badge was the one for all Bucks moments this year since they won the championship. If Top Shot chills on creating new badge types, this will be an unique moment and the first one. Only 4K of them. 

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On 8/13/2021 at 5:20 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

NFTs are hit and miss. I like top shot and zed but wished I had followed the bored ape yacht club trend. many turned a few $1000 into >$100k within a couple of months.

yeah, i came into NFT space to play ZED a week or 2 after BAYC launched.  I think they were .5 ETH at the time and my noob ass thought that was too much for jpeg.  lol

I got into the GutterCat which was a copy cat type deal, but that took off and is now pretty popular.  was able to buy in for < .1 and sell everything associated for ~3eth.  that has funded most of my other escapades into all the other nft flipping.  Just started dipping my toe into an NFT based game that has it's own economy, so you can do some defi things to earn passive $ by owning and staking their in-game tokens. 

The # of people creating and using an OpenSea account is going berserk right now.  you can say it's all a ponzi scheme, but there is tons of new money coming in every day to keep it going.

I know this is mainly TS focused but if anyone else is into a broader spectrum for other NTF (pfp, art, p2e games etc...) I am down for discussion.  There are sooo many projects going on it's impossible to keep track of.

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does anyone else have leftover binance coin in the old binance that we cannot access on us soil?  finally got binance.us going but the balance didnt transfer i guess.  dumb question, how do i get the leftover binance funds out of the old site?

thank you.

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1 hour ago, NOMAAA said:

does anyone else have leftover binance coin in the old binance that we cannot access on us soil?  finally got binance.us going but the balance didnt transfer i guess.  dumb question, how do i get the leftover binance funds out of the old site?

thank you.

i am in the same boat.  have not researched it a lot, but saw where someone was able use a VPN and then log in like they were in a different country to recover the account.

 I don't think i have much in mine.  very low $ amount of a few shitcoins from 2 years ago, but need to gain control of it again i guess.

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@DonkeyCigars is a god damn visionary. Everything NFT is exploding. Even TopShot is making a recovery(during the off-season). Unfortunately I have a proclivity for buying the few shit projects in this market. Womp womp. Oh and Visa bought a CryptoPunk for $150K. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2021/08/23/visa-buys-digital-artwork-token-cryptopunk-for-150k/amp/

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On 8/20/2021 at 5:21 PM, gyroprotagonist said:

i am in the same boat.  have not researched it a lot, but saw where someone was able use a VPN and then log in like they were in a different country to recover the account.

 I don't think i have much in mine.  very low $ amount of a few shitcoins from 2 years ago, but need to gain control of it again i guess.

Something going on with Binance? I have an account that I use a VPN to access but have not been on it in quite a while. I heard they are going to start listing WAX which led to a massive spike recently.

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On 8/20/2021 at 3:16 PM, gyroprotagonist said:

yeah, i came into NFT space to play ZED a week or 2 after BAYC launched.  I think they were .5 ETH at the time and my noob ass thought that was too much for jpeg.  lol

 

Same. I jumped on the discord right when it launched but never bought anything. Instead was pumping money into the penny stonks which has been nothing but a disaster.

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1 hour ago, ZB&#x27;Tejas said:

Same. I jumped on the discord right when it launched but never bought anything. Instead was pumping money into the penny stonks which has been nothing but a disaster.

Same damn boat here, but I've been splashing it around on various NFTs/jpegs for the last month or so.  Made some decent money on Royal Society of Players cards, minted two for .08 each, sold one for .59 (ETH went up during this time too) and am still holding a Q card.

I've piled in hardest to the Blazed Cats - https://blazedcats.com/   They were originally started as a F you to Ashton Kutcher for him doing a NFT drop for a cash grab, but they give 100% of their secondary sales royalties to a mental health charity.  All blazed cat holders are about to get another free NFT just for holding a cat before the end of this month.

I'm holding so much other random shit, BYOPs, AlphaBetties, a LazyLion, a bunch of Zed horses, etc., but I refuse to sell anything at a loss yet.  The NFT space may end up being the next beany babies, but I think it's still pretty early in the cycle and there is still a lot of new money pouring into NFTs. 

I sure wish I'd have been in a few months earlier and grabbed some BAYC apes - there are so many random wallets holding 10, 20, 30 Apes, millions of dollars worth of jpegs that they paid peanuts for.

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In other news the MUDS Spac deal with Topps fell apart because MLB has signed with Fanatics. As it relates to NFTs the only Series 1 Topps Baseball cards might now be stranded on the Wax blockchain. Maybe Fanatics buys Topps or maybe these just sit out there as the "1st Baseball NFTs". I sure hope they can make this work as I'd be pissed if my collection lost significant value on this debacle.

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13 minutes ago, ZB&#x27;Tejas said:

In other news the MUDS Spac deal with Topps fell apart because MLB has signed with Fanatics. As it relates to NFTs the only Series 1 Topps Baseball cards might now be stranded on the Wax blockchain. Maybe Fanatics buys Topps or maybe these just sit out there as the "1st Baseball NFTs". I sure hope they can make this work as I'd be pissed if my collection lost significant value on this debacle.

Unreal that Topps lost MLB especially as NFTs are injecting new life into "card" collecting. Topps just became KMart or Sears.

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1 hour ago, ZB'Tejas said:

In other news the MUDS Spac deal with Topps fell apart because MLB has signed with Fanatics. As it relates to NFTs the only Series 1 Topps Baseball cards might now be stranded on the Wax blockchain. Maybe Fanatics buys Topps or maybe these just sit out there as the "1st Baseball NFTs". I sure hope they can make this work as I'd be pissed if my collection lost significant value on this debacle.

I've read there is hope that Fanatics will buy Topps. I think a similar situation happened where Fanatics came in with all their SoftBank money and out-maneuvered Majestic to displace them as uniform providers. I guess what I'm saying is, there is business precedence...

https://www.retaildive.com/news/fanatics-buys-majestic-months-after-winning-deal-to-replace-it-as-mlb-partn/439749/

Also, edit to add, and I can't confirm this one way or another as someone who is *not* a card hobbyist or enthusiast, but I've read that TOPPS is the prestige name and brand of the physical card class that collectors love (more than any other) and that is surely worth something to Fanatics.

Edited by DonkeyCigars
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