Jump to content

Nonfungible Tokens (NFT’s)


DonkeyCigars
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

^^ Much happier with my spot at 311k instead of that. Brutal

it was bizarre.

i was on whatsapp with him the whole time, and there were several times where they said "about 4400 packs remaining" and he was like 4193 in line.  apparently the 2 numbers update separately, and until there were about 2500 left, he looked like he was getting one pretty much the whole time.  it was as if one number gained and eventually passed the other number like a race.

which in this situation, should be literally impossible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Top Shot's market is interesting. They create instant demand for the latest hot trend while most older moments continue to drop in value. Situations also create demand. Like when LaMelo went out with an injury, his moments dropped in value while Anthony Edwards' skyrocketed in assumption that Edwards will win the ROY.

Demand is sky-high for new pack drops, because the guaranteed premium moment in the pack is worth more than the pack cost.   In order to get in line for a pack drop, they should require pre-payment, which can then be used to buy that pack drop (if you're lucky), or use for a future purchase. I realize this would piss off customers that are just looking for a quick $500-$1000 windfall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Top Shot's market is interesting. They create instant demand for the latest hot trend while most older moments continue to drop in value. Situations also create demand. Like when LaMelo went out with an injury, his moments dropped in value while Anthony Edwards' skyrocketed in assumption that Edwards will win the ROY.

Demand is sky-high for new pack drops, because the guaranteed premium moment in the pack is worth more than the pack cost.   In order to get in line for a pack drop, they should require pre-payment, which can then be used to buy that pack drop (if you're lucky), or use for a future purchase. I realize this would piss off customers that are just looking for a quick $500-$1000 windfall.

Yes. The value of the LaMelo was going down even before he got injured. I sold mine for $5,000 immediately after the pack release but I would be lucky to get $3,000 now. I’m so glad I didn’t wait. TopShot has a major challenge in propping up the value of non rookie, non superstar moments. It will be really interesting to see what happens when many more people are able to withdraw. They’ve also re-opened signups so pack waiting lists will only increase. I could see TopShot increasing pack prices to get more revenue. The long wait for packs is good for word of mouth marketing but that becomes less valuable over time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reading about Beeple and how he sold his NFT for $69mm. At first glance, you'd think it's ridiculous. But is it more ridiculous than real, tangible art and the art market?

For example, this thing was sold for $91mm:

https://www.npr.org/2019/05/16/723888420/jeff-koons-rabbit-fetches-91-million-auction-record-for-work-by-living-artist

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

read an article earlier today but lost the link. No surprise but some people are finding themselves feeling ripped off with NFTs. They buy a NFT which is only a token on the blockchain. The picture (or whatever) they think they're buying is just an online file and not on the blockchain itself. In some cases, the online file has been deleted and they're left with a token.

Buyer beware. Ensure that the service hosting the file won't disappear or that they somehow understand that you are now the owner of the file.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/29/2021 at 1:05 PM, SquishMitten said:

New topshot pre-order going on now. Queue is open for the next 48 hours. Everybody who wants one should be able to get one

Is it worth it anymore or is it over since everyone can get in now?

Edited by LW Goatman
1234
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, LW Goatman said:

Is it worth it anymore or is it over since everyone can get in now?

If you have any interest in participating in future rare or legendary buys, you will want to hold onto some cheap moments in case they continue with the practice of requiring that you own X moments. Sure you can always buy on the marketplace but it's probably cheaper to buy some $9 packs along the way. And you might get lucky with a $9 pack.

Note: some people theorize that if you want to buy a legendary pack, Top Shot might require owning Rare or Legendary moments but no one knows for certain.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If you have any interest in participating in future rare or legendary buys, you will want to hold onto some cheap moments in case they continue with the practice of requiring that you own X moments. Sure you can always buy on the marketplace but it's probably cheaper to buy some $9 packs along the way. And you might get lucky with a $9 pack.

Note: some people theorize that if you want to buy a legendary pack, Top Shot might require owning Rare or Legendary moments but no one knows for certain.

I like the completed challenge theory to be eligible as well.

TopShot with a big influx of cash yesterday valuing Dapper at several billion. New projects coming out but hopefully can keep growing this smartly. I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger on the LeBron challenge but am looking pickup some solid moments for holding on to. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I like the completed challenge theory to be eligible as well.

TopShot with a big influx of cash yesterday valuing Dapper at several billion. New projects coming out but hopefully can keep growing this smartly. I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger on the LeBron challenge but am looking pickup some solid moments for holding on to. 

I bit the bullet and completed the just-announced Rising Stars 2 challenge for a Zion moment. I definitely bought too soon and I'm underwater on the moments.  The lower prices also ensures that more people will complete the challenge but at least the # of people completing it has to be under 2k and more likely around 1k. Maybe I will get lucky with an under 50 serial #.  I don't like that it appears that I've lost $ but I've learned from crypto to not worry about short term losses especially if you're learning. Cost of learning.

I looked at the Holo challenge and the cost is a minimum of $46k to complete.  ouch. 

Great site to analyze challenges: https://livetoken.co/challenges

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I bit the bullet and completed the just-announced Rising Stars 2 challenge for a Zion moment. I definitely bought too soon and I'm underwater on the moments.  The lower prices also ensures that more people will complete the challenge but at least the # of people completing it has to be under 2k and more likely around 1k. Maybe I will get lucky with an under 50 serial #.  I don't like that it appears that I've lost $ but I've learned from crypto to not worry about short term losses especially if you're learning. Cost of learning.

I looked at the Holo challenge and the cost is a minimum of $46k to complete.  ouch. 

Great site to analyze challenges: https://livetoken.co/challenges

Livetoken is really nice although grabbing anything on the Deals tab is just about impossible.

I did the Durant SS Challenge so am liking that movement where everyone is listing him for $69420. His team moments dumped hard so I can only recoup a little of that (about half of the LeBron challenge) The RS one looks solid considering Edwards is going for over $3K... Zion should be more than that.

I'm with you that Challenges and picking these up is not going to be home runs in the short term but as long as you are getting solid moments to buy and hold you should be fine in a few months. Right now I'm deciding between selling those and grabbing LeBron 7500, doing the SS challenge for LeBron or finding some select S1s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Livetoken is really nice although grabbing anything on the Deals tab is just about impossible.

I did the Durant SS Challenge so am liking that movement where everyone is listing him for $69420. His team moments dumped hard so I can only recoup a little of that (about half of the LeBron challenge) The RS one looks solid considering Edwards is going for over $3K... Zion should be more than that.

I'm with you that Challenges and picking these up is not going to be home runs in the short term but as long as you are getting solid moments to buy and hold you should be fine in a few months. Right now I'm deciding between selling those and grabbing LeBron 7500, doing the SS challenge for LeBron or finding some select S1s.

Some Top Shot users expect the Challenges to be instant money-makers. Example: Spend $3000 and when the challenge is over, the value of all of the cards plus challenge prize is worth $5000. That's unrealistic for the average challenge buyer. the market will not allow too many large profits. You almost have to expect the value to potentially be a wash if not less for some. Gain for some.

My goal has been to buy in the top 10% of the serial numbers of a moment. Hoping these will hold more long term value and I don't plan to sell many. I look for a top 10% serial number that is less than a 20% premium on the low asking price. (Note: I personally don't see why serial #1 is necessarily better than serial #18,376 but the market has determined it is.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im a fan of Top Shot and the movement into other sports etc...the palying cards of the future. Have gotten a couple common packs and have been eyeing the market. 

Some prices are ridculous. My thinking is at some point when NFL, MLB and others start creating NFT cards/moments the market will start to stabilize. There is tremendous hype right now since Top Shot was the first and I think that's what's drving pricing so high for #1, jersey numbers etc. And of course there will be rare cards worth a lot...and I think #1s will always command a higher price. But not some of the extreme pricing we are wathcing now for example:

Saw a person bought a common of a card I have for $2,000 because the number of the card was the jersey number of the player (Paul George). He now has the card listed for sale at $250,000. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Saw a person bought a common of a card I have for $2,000 because the number of the card was the jersey number of the player (Paul George). He now has the card listed for sale at $250,000. 

Yeah, if the serial # matches the jersey, it's valued by collectors more. Also the very last serial # is prized but I don't think as much as low serial #s. 

As far as the jersey # goes, I see why collectors like it. When they eventually release a Jordan moment, having #23 has to be the same or more valuable than #1. Most famous # in sports.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TopShot announced during office hours today that there will be a Legendary drop in Mid April. There will be restrictions and only people with “strong collections” will be allowed to purchase. They did not expound on what “strong collection” means. The requirement will be announced shortly before the pack drop and it’s not intended for collectors to be able to do a last minute purchase. So expect people to speculate on what the requirements will be. 
 

Also, Mike Conley narrated his All Star moment. He approached the TopShot team, they didn’t approach him. Pretty cool. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/2/2021 at 2:31 PM, Irieguy said:

TopShot announced during office hours today that there will be a Legendary drop in Mid April. There will be restrictions and only people with “strong collections” will be allowed to purchase. They did not expound on what “strong collection” means. The requirement will be announced shortly before the pack drop and it’s not intended for collectors to be able to do a last minute purchase. So expect people to speculate on what the requirements will be. 
 

Also, Mike Conley narrated his All Star moment. He approached the TopShot team, they didn’t approach him. Pretty cool. 

the real way to make money off this type of thing is to figure out what is needed and sell to those trying to hit it big.  not to pursue what is needed yourself and try to score something big in a pack.  people always will overpay to have a lottery ticket chance at something crazy.

  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm completing my first Top Shot challenge at noon today. Rising Stars 2 for a Zion dunk moment. Two downsides:

  1. Most of the moments dropped in value after I bought them. I could have waited and saved some decent $.
  2. The lower values have allowed more people to pile into the challenge.  Currently 720 have completed but I wouldn't be shocked if this jumps to 800 by noon.

Besides hoping to get a low Zion serial #, I hope the Zion moment holds more value than the previous Rising Stars 1 challenge. There were >1000 challenge "winners" for RS1, and the prize is going for a low of $3K with recent sales over $4500. That prize was Anthony Edwards.

I'm not planning to sell the prize or the required moments, at least for now. Of course, if I get Zion #1, and someone wants to offer me $250K, I will reluctantly take it. I also want to keep these rare moments to hopefully make the cut for the upcoming Legendary pack drop, which has some currently-secret requirement.

FYI, site to analyze Top shot, (link to this challenge): https://otmnft.com/challenge/?name=Rising Stars 2

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

How much did it cost you to complete the challenge?

Between 5 and 6. I bought the more expensive moments early on, and they have all dropped. Now I had a strategy to buy good serial #s to protect the long term value so I didn't buy the cheapest moment available. I realize a better serial # for the required moments doesn't give you a better chance at a good serial # for the prize.

Unless I get a good Zion serial #, without a doubt I will be upside down in this "investment."  But I'm also not looking to dump the moments immediately so not worried about a paper loss or gain.

EDIT: I may have spent over 6. Honesty, I don't want to go back and calculate it knowing I could get in for much cheaper now. :)

 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

What are these challenges?  You have to do 100 push ups, eat a live worm?  This all just sounds stupid as hell 

Don't know if you're being serious or not but the challenges are buying specific X moments and you get a prize moment for free. You have to own the moments when a countdown hits zero. They appear to give between 6 and 30 days to complete the challenge.

Whether you think the entire idea of collecting moments is stupid or not, the challenges are actually great methods to create secondhand market sales. They create demand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm completing my first Top Shot challenge at noon today. Rising Stars 2 for a Zion dunk moment. Two downsides:

  1. Most of the moments dropped in value after I bought them. I could have waited and saved some decent $.
  2. The lower values have allowed more people to pile into the challenge.  Currently 720 have completed but I wouldn't be shocked if this jumps to 800 by noon.

Besides hoping to get a low Zion serial #, I hope the Zion moment holds more value than the previous Rising Stars 1 challenge. There were >1000 challenge "winners" for RS1, and the prize is going for a low of $3K with recent sales over $4500. That prize was Anthony Edwards.

I'm not planning to sell the prize or the required moments, at least for now. Of course, if I get Zion #1, and someone wants to offer me $250K, I will reluctantly take it. I also want to keep these rare moments to hopefully make the cut for the upcoming Legendary pack drop, which has some currently-secret requirement.

FYI, site to analyze Top shot, (link to this challenge): https://otmnft.com/challenge/?name=Rising Stars 2

To close this story, I received serial # in the high 400s out of 802. It could have been worse but not great. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/3/2021 at 5:38 PM, henrygandorf said:

the real way to make money off this type of thing is to figure out what is needed and sell to those trying to hit it big.  not to pursue what is needed yourself and try to score something big in a pack.  people always will overpay to have a lottery ticket chance at something crazy.

It's a sucker game to dig for gold. Winners sell shovels.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DonkeyCigars said:

If you were smart, you would get on the gravy train. Opportunity knocks but once...

I've tried to understand how to invest the companies behind the major NFTs. Many of their tokens are not easily traded by Americans. Yes, I know there are ways around that, but I worry about risks with those methods. FLOW and ENJ are 2 NFT plays.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I completed the SS1 and have the KD but held off on buying the SS2 for LeBron. Looking like a better deal to just buy now sub $900 on the MP.

Am looking forward to seeing the new Ledgendary pack announcement and hopefully the completed challenge is a requirement since I have one under my belt.

Interesting article that recently came out:

https://mintedmoment.substack.com/p/vegasdave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also in other interesting NFT plays, check out Zed.run. It's been out a while but gained big popularity in the last month. Last big drop for genesis horses was Sat but could not get any. Super interesting concept but it's not cheap by any means.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I completed the SS1 and have the KD but held off on buying the SS2 for LeBron. Looking like a better deal to just buy now sub $900 on the MP.

Am looking forward to seeing the new Ledgendary pack announcement and hopefully the completed challenge is a requirement since I have one under my belt.

Interesting article that recently came out:

https://mintedmoment.substack.com/p/vegasdave

Thanks for the link. Interesting to read how it appears the gifting feature has been used to get around the rules against many-accounts-per-person. In theory, I think gifting is ok because why not allow transactions outside of Top Shot. And legitimate gifts to someone. But it's obvious that gifting supports the multi-account problem.

In this case, it appears that one person has at least 55 other accounts and most likely many more. If you're going to break the rules to open up 1 additional account, why not 100s?

As for your comment about the legendary pack requirements, I would bet that completing a challenge will buy goodwill on Top Shot for some time. Completing a challenge is a strong indicator of usage on the site for higher value moments. I find that requiring someone to own 3 moments is a low bar for some packs when moments can be had for $5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Thanks for the link. Interesting to read how it appears the gifting feature has been used to get around the rules against many-accounts-per-person. In theory, I think gifting is ok because why not allow transactions outside of Top Shot. And legitimate gifts to someone. But it's obvious that gifting supports the multi-account problem.

In this case, it appears that one person has at least 55 other accounts and most likely many more. If you're going to break the rules to open up 1 additional account, why not 100s?

As for your comment about the legendary pack requirements, I would bet that completing a challenge will buy goodwill on Top Shot for some time. Completing a challenge is a strong indicator of usage on the site for higher value moments. I find that requiring someone to own 3 moments is a low bar for some packs when moments can be had for $5.

Have you put together a strategy for what you want to hold? I'm concerned about my collection being too broad in the offseason so trying to consolidate into Superstar S2s and S1s (where affordable). I've got a few select rookie/young guys that I plan on holding like 1st moment MPJ, Keldon MGLE and looking at some of Rising Stars but other than that the majority will be in LeBron, Durant, Luka, Harden and a few others. 

Edited by ZB'Tejas
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Have you put together a strategy for what you want to hold? I'm concerned about my collection being too broad in the offseason so trying to consolidate into Superstar S2s and S1s (where affordable). I've got a few select rookie/young guys that I plan on holding like 1st moment MPJ, Keldon MGLE and looking at some of Rising Stars but other than that the majority will be in LeBron, Durant, Luka, Harden and a few others. 

I don’t have an overall strategy. Perhaps try to put together some S1 if prices drop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I've tried to understand how to invest the companies behind the major NFTs. Many of their tokens are not easily traded by Americans. Yes, I know there are ways around that, but I worry about risks with those methods. FLOW and ENJ are 2 NFT plays.

And as soon as I wrote this, Coinbase announced they are listing ENJ on Pro this Friday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone else run across Zed racing yet? NFT where you own a digital racing horse. Buy your way into races, which pay out win, place and show. Different categories and classes of horses. Which can also be bred to other digital horses to create new ones.

People are paying 5 figures or more for digital horses. 

surreal world we are in.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Anyone else run across Zed racing yet? NFT where you own a digital racing horse. Buy your way into races, which pay out win, place and show. Different categories and classes of horses. Which can also be bred to other digital horses to create new ones.

People are paying 5 figures or more for digital horses. 

surreal world we are in.

Yep, posted about it a few days ago. I tried to get in on the drop last Sat but no luck so if I want to get in I might have to pony up some ETH. Long term some really interesting things on this platform. Cool to own, race and breed horses but I see real value in long term owning a track and partnering with sponsors to advertise.

You need to dedicate some real time to crunching numbers on that to figure out what races to enter based on your horse characteristics if you want to do anything beyond just buying a Genesis horse and sitting on it. I'm not sure I have the bandwidth to go beyond what I'm doing on VeVe and TopShot.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Yep, posted about it a few days ago. I tried to get in on the drop last Sat but no luck so if I want to get in I might have to pony up some ETH. Long term some really interesting things on this platform. Cool to own, race and breed horses but I see real value in long term owning a track and partnering with sponsors to advertise.

You need to dedicate some real time to crunching numbers on that to figure out what races to enter based on your horse characteristics if you want to do anything beyond just buying a Genesis horse and sitting on it. I'm not sure I have the bandwidth to go beyond what I'm doing on VeVe and TopShot.

 

Sorry I missed or forgot about your previous post. 

The idea of being able to utilize your NFT beyond just speculative appreciation is interesting especially in a game and gambling aspect. Imagine if they added the complexity of jockeys to the mix. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2,400 Legendary packs dropping tomorrow for $1,000. TopShot did a snapshot of accounts a couple hours ago. You have to have met one of these requirements to be eligible:

Own 15+ moments
Own 2+ Rare moments
Own 1+ Legendary moments
Spent $999 in the marketplace

There’s nothing you can do now to be eligible for tomorrow’s drop. I’m kicking myself because I was going to buy some cheap moments last night just in case they did a snapshot. TopShot mentioned they will continue to do unannounced snapshots going forward. I’m going to buy 20 moments for $5 each and list them for $7 or $8 bucks. This will keep my moments count high and increase my “amount spent in marketplace”. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/9/2021 at 9:11 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Sorry I missed or forgot about your previous post. 

The idea of being able to utilize your NFT beyond just speculative appreciation is interesting especially in a game and gambling aspect. Imagine if they added the complexity of jockeys to the mix. 

about 8-10 years ago i did a little consulting work (really just introduced two people i knew to each other) and one of the guys basically built the algorithm for the company that espn used at the time to forecast the stupid "odds of winning" they put on their crawl.   accuscore or some such, i can't remember, they got bought out, he went out on his own, whatever.  

his main business was running prediction models and then selling the results to gamblers like any other touting service.  his football predictor didn't just spit out a score, it literally played the game and predicted stats and 1st downs and shit, and that's how the final score was tallied.  of course his system ran the sim like 500,000x for each game, to get the numbers as sharp as possible.

his prediction was that eventually there would be sim models that would allow gamblers to bet on this shit 24/7/365, totally on command.  like if you logged onto bovada in mid-april at midnight, you could research two football teams - their stats, injuries, tendencies - and then watch the game like teams playing themselves in season mode of tecmo bowl, and bet on the outcome.

knowing gamblers like i did (do), i thought it was probably an accurate prediction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...