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Nonfungible Tokens (NFT’s)


DonkeyCigars
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I went from completely ignoring the crypto world all the way to purchasing an NFT in seven days. The journey of learning and things I had to do to make it work was exhausting, but I now own an NFT of the first music album ever released as an NFT. I did it because I think that the whole concept is cool, and I believe in digital asset collectables. Interesting side note - I spent more money on the ethereum gas than the NFT. 

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Your post got me looking more into this line of thinking. What are the next challenges in which you can predict what you need to buy today? 
The one you mention above, is collecting 9 Rising Star moments to get the unminted Edwards. The other unminted Rising Star moment is Zion Williamson. Most likely next month there will be a Rising Star challenge where if you collect the other 9 Rising Stars, you get a free Zion Williamson. It's probably cheaper to buy those Rising Stars today before the challenge is formally announced.
The same with the All Star. Buy 12 All-Stars today, get a free unminted Kevin Durant.  The other missing All-Star? LeBron. LeBron will most likely be an April challenge as well.

33f038f6993ec8dc3c0d09f2b96ad415.jpg

Completed challenges as of yesterday.

They announced the contents of the SS Lebron challenge yesterday during the drop and confirmed it would just be the other SS moments. They all spiked up big once it reopened.

I have a Luka and Giannis but now not sure I want to complete. I already have the Durant completed and will hold of the completed rate stays low.


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17 hours ago, Irieguy said:

I don’t think anybody knows. And the “experts” on YouTube will crack any code well before I do. Some people are speculating that Poetl, Dort, Boucher and a couple others might be part of it. I saw that on a YouTube video 10 days ago and made a quick $50. I bought the moments at $15 and sold for $30 the next day. But they have stabilized at $25. 
I’m honestly getting a little tired of TopShot. I know it’s a new site but it’s always down. My identity verification has still not been approved. I have no way of getting my money for at least 30 more days it appears. The market prices seem to be going down slightly across the board. I think in a month when tons of users can withdraw their money the market will crash even more. Right now I think it’s possible that people are buying moments when they have no option to withdraw. I will still enter every lottery for packs(nothing has been announced). But I’m not going to listen to monotone kids predict the next set composition or trends. 

 

I think the RS Zion challenge is interesting. If I was in your shoes, since you can't withdraw and are sitting on that dapper, I might just buy and hold a Luka's 1st moment for the next 30-45 days while you wait to get approved. Or spread it around and get some LeBron S2s.

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@ZB'Tejas @Irieguy

I decided to go after the assumed RS Zion challenge. I'm buying now but will not have a problem selling for profits before the challenge ends. I will be watching the current RS challenge to see how the market runs upwards near the end and how bad of an immediate drop, especially with the lower demand moments.

Now if the RS Zion challenge doesn't materialize, I made a bad guess.

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31 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

2ef833429e1f0ede759eb760cf4ae29a.jpg

Updated stats on completion rates.
 

Another interesting challenge question is what #s are the best to buy. To win the challenge, you only need to buy 1 moment, so the cheapest serial # is the easy answer. But the cheapest #s will most likely plummet with the highest percentage once its over.  Will the more expensive serial #s retain more value as a percentage, or will there even be a market for them?

Or is it cheaper to just buy the rewarded (free) moment on the marketplace after the challenge? 

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19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Another interesting challenge question is what #s are the best to buy. To win the challenge, you only need to buy 1 moment, so the cheapest serial # is the easy answer. But the cheapest #s will most likely plummet with the highest percentage once its over.  Will the more expensive serial #s retain more value as a percentage, or will there even be a market for them?

Or is it cheaper to just buy the rewarded (free) moment on the marketplace after the challenge? 

All part of the fun. If I can spend just a little more and get a better serial number I do because I think it's easier to sell and would typically go for more. (I had a 1xxx Giannis SS yesterday that I listed and it sold at $490 even though the current low was $450). For the lower end guys I'm not sure it matter much but still think if you will be dumping them right after the challenge a lower serial will stand out.

In the Cool Cats... the AD was way cheaper to buy after the fact. But you do have a slim chance of pulling a really good serial number which would not be the case if you buy the challenge reward on the market afterwards.

My quick take:

RS stars are risky since they are rookies

Durant SS is likely not worth it unless you pull a great serial number, the number of completions stays below 3K and/or TS opens the Reg gates over the next two weeks and the new people drive demand up similar to what we saw in late Feb.

Lebron SS was worth it at yesterday prices but is now borderline unless you already hold Luka, Steph, etc. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is whether I should sell Luka, Giannis and others I'm holding and just buy LeBron S2 moments as those might go up more over the next month than the SS moments and EV of the LeBron challenge.

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The current RS challenge is interesting with the LaMelo Ball going for >5K. This has to create hesitation with many buyers. Now the Ball moment seems to hold value on its own as he's the front-runner to win the ROY but most Top Shot buyers are probably not into buying moments for 5K. How many people will overextend themselves thinking they will get a rare reward? The AD reward is def cheaper now but there is also >7,000 over them. The max RS reward moment count is 2,000 and most likely under 1,000.

The next RS challenge (not confirmed yet) looks to be cheaper since all moments are currently under 2K and I would think that more collectors would want that Zion reward moment than the current Edwards reward. 

FYI, this guy breaks down some tools to help analyze Top Shot: 

 

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Am I reading this correctly? This guy bought it for $6K at 5:36, then sold it about an hour later for $2,500? Is there maybe more to it, like could this have been a package deal where he received another moment in addition to the sales price? That even possible? Or is this dude just a moron?

Screen Shot 2021-03-17 at 12.30.28 PM.png

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9 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Am I reading this correctly? This guy bought it for $6K at 5:36, then sold it about an hour later for $2,500? Is there maybe more to it, like could this have been a package deal where he received another moment in addition to the sales price? That even possible? Or is this dude just a moron?

Screen Shot 2021-03-17 at 12.30.28 PM.png

Something else is being sold there or something. I found that transaction and the estimated value is $10 for that moment and serial #. 

https://momentranks.com/moment/208ae30a-a4fe-42d4-9e51-e6fd1ad2a7a9/72202871-60ae-43a1-8f06-577cea587c55

That buyer and seller did a similar trade with this moment: https://momentranks.com/moment/208ae30a-a4fe-42d4-9e51-e6fd1ad2a7a9/d099cb9b-2834-4751-80f0-3c5c27e8fb91

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Should I sell an NFT high res version of this gif?...

http://www.tanmutt.com/images/cJcJg09.gif

Edit: apparently I still haven't figured out how to post gifs on here ever since we got banned from imgur.

I know you are joking but Thujune and others should dig up all the Shaggy art archives and convert to NFTs. I think it’s a rather simple process from what I’ve gathered.

It’s not beeple but might be a fun project to raise money for Surly.


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34 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:


I know you are joking but Thujune and others should dig up all the Shaggy art archives and convert to NFTs. I think it’s a rather simple process from what I’ve gathered.

It’s not beeple but might be a fun project to raise money for Surly.


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@blacklab

ha. Create NFTs for classic threads or posts.  Especially if the "owner" can somehow be noted on the thread/post.

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53 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:


I know you are joking but Thujune and others should dig up all the Shaggy art archives and convert to NFTs. I think it’s a rather simple process from what I’ve gathered.

It’s not beeple but might be a fun project to raise money for Surly.


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Only half joking. I just plugged in my old external drive to try to find the original project file. Unfortunately it might have been lost during multiple computer moves, but I do have the original rendered movie I made the gif out of. It's not 1080p, but it's 720p at 24fps. That's probably as good as it's gonna get since the original youtube video I used was probably at that quality too.

If I figure out how to sign up on one of these NFT sites and sell stuff, I might just put it up and see what happens.

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5 minutes ago, hornfan785 said:

Only half joking. I just plugged in my old external drive to try to find the original project file. Unfortunately it might have been lost during multiple computer moves, but I do have the original rendered movie I made the gif out of. It's not 1080p, but it's 720p at 24fps. That's probably as good as it's gonna get since the original youtube video I used was probably at that quality too.

If I figure out how to sign up on one of these NFT sites and sell stuff, I might just put it up and see what happens.

Look at Rarible (https://rarible.com/) for creating your own NFTs.

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40 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

big pack drop today. noon la time. 

I was going to post this. Interesting development with this drop, they are requiring you to own 3 moments to be eligible for the drop. This requirement announcement drove the price of the cheapest moments from $9 to $15 almost instantly. This clearly shows that TopShot can prop up the market through pack requirements. I bet we will see a lot more of it.  They can literally make any requirement to manipulate a segment of the market up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a pack drop where having a completed challenge is requirement. A pack drop where you have to have 100 moments? Why not. It’s an ingenious way to convert excess demand for packs in to marketplace purchases. I’d much rather see that than an increase in pack prices. Let the speculation as for what the next requirement for pack purchases will be. 

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12 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

I was going to post this. Interesting development with this drop, they are requiring you to own 3 moments to be eligible for the drop. This requirement announcement drove the price of the cheapest moments from $9 to $15 almost instantly. This clearly shows that TopShot can prop up the market through pack requirements. I bet we will see a lot more of it.  They can literally make any requirement to manipulate a segment of the market up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a pack drop where having a completed challenge is requirement. A pack drop where you have to have 100 moments? Why not. It’s an ingenious way to convert excess demand for packs in to marketplace purchases. I’d much rather see that than an increase in pack prices. Let the speculation as for what the next requirement for pack purchases will be. 

Seems fair to me that if you want a Legendary moment in a pack, you should be required to already own a Legendary (or Rare) moment. Or at least allow it to increase your chances.  Reward your best or longest customers.

 

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5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Seems fair to me that if you want a Legendary moment in a pack, you should be required to already own a Legendary (or Rare) moment. Or at least allow it to increase your chances.  Reward your best or longest customers.

 

Agree. It will be good for the hardcore collectors who predict the requirements for future pack purchases but also good for the casual collectors. Wake up and one of your cards has doubled because of requirements is very cool. They could have met demand by increasing prices, flooding the market or this. This is a good move that shows their commitment to propping up the market. I’m not overstating this development but it’s a good sign. 

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Lame. I guess it caused a huge jump in prices of lower valued cards, but waiting to announce the requirements until right before the drop would've been great for some longer-term collectors who have participated in multiple drops unsuccessfully. As they increase requirements, the barrier to entry will continue to get higher. The people who have the most moments will be more likely to get in on a drop, which will give them more moments, which will further increase their chances in the next drop. I'd be interested to see how much they collected on resale fees from all the action that went down by people trying to become eligible. Convenient how they add a two hour delay which will surely allow even more people to become eligible at the last minute. 

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1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

Lame. I guess it caused a huge jump in prices of lower valued cards, but waiting to announce the requirements until right before the drop would've been great for some longer-term collectors who have participated in multiple drops unsuccessfully. As they increase requirements, the barrier to entry will continue to get higher. The people who have the most moments will be more likely to get in on a drop, which will give them more moments, which will further increase their chances in the next drop. I'd be interested to see how much they collected on resale fees from all the action that went down by people trying to become eligible. Convenient how they add a two hour delay which will surely allow even more people to become eligible at the last minute. 

I love a conspiracy theory as much as the next guy but I doubt they are delaying the launch that will net them $8M in revenue so they can collect a couple hundred more $.60 commissions on the sale of $12 moments. 🤷🏻‍♂️Also, they could just double the price of the pack if they were so desperate. 
 

Seriously, TopShot has problems. Marketplace downtime, limited support and access to funds being the biggest three. But I have not seen them over promise or do blatant money grabs. Not doing the final two allows me to forgive the problems I listed. 

Edited by Irieguy
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14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The marketplace has been down much of the day so I’m sure many were left out of this since they didn’t own 3 moments already. 

..... and the website has crashed making it impossible to join the waiting list for packs. Ouch. They really need to step up their reliability. The pack release is delayed. 

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23 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

..... and the website has crashed making it impossible to join the waiting list for packs. Ouch. They really need to step up their reliability. The pack release is delayed. 

Disappointing but not the end of the world. They appear to be continually slammed by bots. I'm sure some were outraged at the drop requirements and did everything they could to disrupt the site.

One complaint that I have is that they appear to want drops to occur during US business hours. I know many can make this happen during work hours, but come on already

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pack drop delayed until "tomorrow at the earliest".  nice work, guys, nice effort.

as for the requirements for packs, and the requirements for challenges and whatever, this reminds me of madden mobile, a game i started playing with my nephews, and then continued to play after they outgrew it.

there's not "real" money in play really, but in-game, there are "cards" you get in packs that help you build your team (obviously there's an element of actually playing the game).  but much like this, there's an auction house where people post and buy and sell, much like the ts marketplace.

and just like you said, there are plenty of sets to get better cards, and sometimes the requirements can be somewhat random.  you could open a pack with a midlevel og from the bengals, who should sell for 2500 coins (madden money) but instead it's worth 75,000, because it's required in a set, and the demand sets the price.

there are quite a few overlaps with top shot and madden, at least so far.  i would love to see something where all cards/moments have some significance, instead of just being casted aside like 1990 donruss commons.

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21 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

there are quite a few overlaps with top shot and madden, at least so far.  i would love to see something where all cards/moments have some significance, instead of just being casted aside like 1990 donruss commons.

I believe they're about to start adding badges on some of the moments. Like "First Moment" for the players first released moment. Obviously LeBron's first moment badged card will become more valuable but it may also make mid or lower level player moments more valuable.

I also think it's important that there are $2 moments so someone will less money can buy and hope for a slightly higher resale. Or release a KD or Curry moment with a run of 500K and don't allow any account to own more than 1. It will be worthless but the game should be more than adults with too much money on their hands.

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Some were speculating the head fake yesterday was just to catch the bots.

I also like the idea of the All Star challenge only being 7 days this time so with the new gifting limitations you can'e complete that challenge with a group. Keep those bots accounts out and everyone has to complete it fairly.

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12 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

197K :(

 

10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

167k.

two other people i'm in touch with were also 140k+

better to know you missed out now instead of just missing out.

One good aspect of the 3 moment requirement was that I dumped 2 moments that I didn't want for about triple the value from a few days prior. Turning a $7 moment into $21 doesn't make me wealthy but better than nothing.

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Someone learn me 

The value of anything, a Picasso, a Mickey Mantle rookie card, Thujone Art, South Austin’s mothers undergarments, is only as much as someone is willing to pay for it. A digital piece of art is no different than a physical piece of art, as long as someone values the art. Picasso’s paintings are worth so much because a large number of people say they are, and continue to say they are, not the rarity of them. So the question for these NFT is how much hype and the duration of said hype. I think duration of hype will be the issue. Yes, people are excited now about a certain NFT, whatever it is, but will anyone want to own the NFT in 10 years? Maybe, I just don’t know if the NFT have the hype infrastructure. At least with Art, you have the Art school people, the high society art gallery events, etc. Admittedly, I could be the old man not seeing the future. Maybe the youths will talk about the Lebron NFT and how amazing it is in 10 years. Maybe there will be digital art events where people can talk and view certain NFT creations and wished they own a certain NFT. We will see 

 

 

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On 3/20/2021 at 11:01 AM, Neonmoon said:

Someone learn me 

The value of anything, a Picasso, a Mickey Mantle rookie card, Thujone Art, South Austin’s mothers undergarments, is only as much as someone is willing to pay for it. A digital piece of art is no different than a physical piece of art, as long as someone values the art. Picasso’s paintings are worth so much because a large number of people say they are, and continue to say they are, not the rarity of them. So the question for these NFT is how much hype and the duration of said hype. I think duration of hype will be the issue. Yes, people are excited now about a certain NFT, whatever it is, but will anyone want to own the NFT in 10 years? Maybe, I just don’t know if the NFT have the hype infrastructure. At least with Art, you have the Art school people, the high society art gallery events, etc. Admittedly, I could be the old man not seeing the future. Maybe the youths will talk about the Lebron NFT and how amazing it is in 10 years. Maybe there will be digital art events where people can talk and view certain NFT creations and wished they own a certain NFT. We will see 

 

 

I disagree with you slightly. The value of Picasso’s paintings are the beauty AND the rarity. TopShot does have beauty to some people and is confirmed to have rarity. I don’t think anybody knows where the value is going in the future. I personally think the top of the market has the most potential for future growth and everything else is a bubble. I could see the rarest Lebron going from $200,000 to $1M over 5 years. I can’t see a $200 common Demar Derozan going to $1,000. The Lebron(population size 10) will be cool regardless of where the market goes. But who is going to care about a Demar Derozan moment(population size 15,000). 

The “bragging rights” aspect will keep the top of market firm. Right now rich guys put their sports cards in a man cave and then post a video on YouTube showing off their Mantles. They don’t “do anything” with the cards. So if TopShot can cut out the middleman and become the place where you store and share your bragging rights it could easily cut in to the sportscard market in a major way. 

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On 3/16/2021 at 2:29 PM, Irieguy said:

I don’t think anybody knows. And the “experts” on YouTube will crack any code well before I do. Some people are speculating that Poetl, Dort, Boucher and a couple others might be part of it. I saw that on a YouTube video 10 days ago and made a quick $50. I bought the moments at $15 and sold for $30 the next day. But they have stabilized at $25. 
I’m honestly getting a little tired of TopShot. I know it’s a new site but it’s always down. My identity verification has still not been approved. I have no way of getting my money for at least 30 more days it appears. The market prices seem to be going down slightly across the board. I think in a month when tons of users can withdraw their money the market will crash even more. Right now I think it’s possible that people are buying moments when they have no option to withdraw. I will still enter every lottery for packs(nothing has been announced). But I’m not going to listen to monotone kids predict the next set composition or trends. 

So the YouTube predictors were right: Poetl, Boucher, Dort, Nurkic and Capela are the commons needed to complete the Cool Cats challenge. I bought them on the 11th for $15 each and sold them the next day for $30 each. They are selling for $45 each now(overpriced). It was pretty obvious from the mint sizes that they were “unique”. Plus they are all from cold countries. Something to watch for in the future. This is a 13 day old tweet. 
 

3/13 Tweet

Based on Circ. Count for the NEW common base moments in Seeing Stars/Rising Stars drops...there are 5 outliers*

🇨🇦Luguentz Dort
🇧🇦Jusuf Nurkic
🇦🇹Jakob Poeltl
🇱🇨Chris Boucher
🇨🇭Clint Capela

*8k in circulation vs 15k for others

Potential smoking gun for the CC3 commons? #TopShot

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13 hours ago, Irieguy said:

I disagree with you slightly. The value of Picasso’s paintings are the beauty AND the rarity. TopShot does have beauty to some people and is confirmed to have rarity. I don’t think anybody knows where the value is going in the future. I personally think the top of the market has the most potential for future growth and everything else is a bubble. I could see the rarest Lebron going from $200,000 to $1M over 5 years. I can’t see a $200 common Demar Derozan going to $1,000. The Lebron(population size 10) will be cool regardless of where the market goes. But who is going to care about a Demar Derozan moment(population size 15,000). 

The “bragging rights” aspect will keep the top of market firm. Right now rich guys put their sports cards in a man cave and then post a video on YouTube showing off their Mantles. They don’t “do anything” with the cards. So if TopShot can cut out the middleman and become the place where you store and share your bragging rights it could easily cut in to the sportscard market in a major way. 

100%. The sets with a few hundred (maybe a few 1000) or the low serial #s of large sets are the only ones that will retain long term value. At some point the hype will end, or more likely the hype will get diluted when the NFL and MLB & others jump in. There just won’t be enough people and money to sustain the prices.

I still think there is money to be made and have some fun. But someone that gets too greedy or attempts to time the market could be left with large losses. I’m treating this like a hobby but not as some path to wealth. 

 

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21 hours ago, Irieguy said:

 I could see the rarest Lebron going from $200,000 to $1M over 5 years. I can’t see a $200 common Demar Derozan going to $1,000. The Lebron(population size 10) will be cool regardless of where the market goes. But who is going to care about a Demar Derozan moment(population size 15,000). 

The “bragging rights” aspect will keep the top of market firm. Right now rich guys put their sports cards in a man cave and then post a video on YouTube showing off their Mantles. They don’t “do anything” with the cards. So if TopShot can cut out the middleman and become the place where you store and share your bragging rights it could easily cut in to the sportscard market in a major way. 

Lebron sold for $210K over the weekend I believe. But overall I think this will be similar to the physical card market. Value in the speculative rookies early but you want to hold HOFers long term. S1s will be great but not every S1 will appreciate. I think the issue is most anyone entering the market will be priced out of S1s so they need to fix that (potentially with fractional ownership)

I have just a few S1s but mostly S2s right now. Maybe I should just sell it all and buy Luka S1s.

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

92K in line. Seems doubtful >20k fail to buy but I will hang around regardless.

I think somewhere between ~20-30% fail to buy based on a couple drops I've seen. Someone has to be tracking it more concretely but the All-Star drop felt like it had the least amount of failures to buy, maybe because you had to have 3 moments just to have the chance. 

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