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40acredropout
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Iowa also played a pretty good IU team while ISU played a pretty good FCS team.  Not completely apples to apples but I see your point.  It just always seems ISU chokes in this game.

That’s not far from the truth, I was very surprised to see that isu has never been fav in recent memory. Vegas has been within the hook two of last 3 mtgs and the other was a Iowa clinching TD with 4 min left.

Not saying isu is a lock but this has all the makings of proof Vegas gives no fucks about ‘even money’ on both sides that’s always thrown around. They’re in the biz of making the most money possible.
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My stone cold lock of next week is Texas -6 or minus -6.5. I think we cover all games leading up to OU then we will have to see what it’s at.  Everyone is understanding this team right now and we will get back to the days of coving spreads vs bad teams.  
 

I also just gave a aggie guy I know double the spread at -12 for a $100….  Cause he wouldn’t stop taking shit.  He said we had a 50/50 chance of beating Ark I said well that a even line then put your money where your mouth is, he wouldn’t obviously. His excuse was I only bet on aggy, I said if you feel confident at all even have the balls to bet me doubling the line atleast and he finally caved.  

Edited by Hook1997
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12 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

My stone cold lock of next week is Texas -6 or minus -6.5. I think we cover all games leading up to OU then we will have to see what it’s at.  Everyone is understanding this team right now and we will get back to the days of coving spreads vs bad teams.  
 

I also just gave a aggie guy I know double the spread at -12 for a $100….  Cause he wouldn’t stop taking shit.  He said we had a 50/50 chance of beating Ark I said well that a even line then put your money where your mouth is, he wouldn’t obviously. His excuse was I only bet on aggy, I said if you feel confident at all even have the balls to bet me doubling the line atleast and he finally caved.  

my stone-cold lock of the week last week should have been Bijan Robinson over 2.5 receptions, but I only noticed it about 5 minutes before kickoff, as I rarely even look at cfb player props. Sadly, I didn’t have much available in the online account at the time, so I couldn’t really pound it. I think he grabbed his 3rd in the second  qtr, so it wasn’t a sweat, but surprisingly Bijan only ended up with 4 on the day. I'll be looking for it this week if they offer the same wager, as I think sark's gonna continue to look for ways to get him the ball in open field.

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I really don’t like us this week at all. Our oline was pretty much dogshit vs lala (we played behind the chains way too much) and I tend to believe a hostile atmosphere’s biggest impact is on a visitors oline… communication, extra juice for d line, and generally speeding things up. This is not even mentioning none of our qb’s playing away yet or that the scheme is still new.

Arky O has a few players, and our LB will be tested by a bigass running qb and very quick RB.

Not saying we lose, but ark+ would be my play.

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27 minutes ago, Zeus said:

image.png.52f83a02a0fa04dc765b8739218fa754.png

May put down something on NC State that is an interesting one.

Coastal Carolina is that that good? That's a ton of points

They beat Kansas in Kansas by 15 points last year in their opener after being a 5 win team in 2019.  They return something like 20 starters and reached another level by the end of the season.  I think they’re solid and I think Kansas is that bad.

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On 9/7/2021 at 1:05 PM, Blotto said:

my stone-cold lock of the week last week should have been Bijan Robinson over 2.5 receptions, but I only noticed it about 5 minutes before kickoff, as I rarely even look at cfb player props. Sadly, I didn’t have much available in the online account at the time, so I couldn’t really pound it. I think he grabbed his 3rd in the second  qtr, so it wasn’t a sweat, but surprisingly Bijan only ended up with 4 on the day. I'll be looking for it this week if they offer the same wager, as I think sark's gonna continue to look for ways to get him the ball in open field.

Fuuuuuuuuck....-145 odds. Guess I'll see if they adjust it closer to gametime

image.thumb.png.1a5dfb6bdc861ead41ed49841813d919.png

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On 9/8/2021 at 8:21 PM, 40acredropout said:

Aight, will see how long my luck can last.  Actually feel really solid about these which is why I probably go 0-4.

  • Coastal Carolina -25 v Kansas Covered By 2
  • NC State -2.5 @ Mississippi State Lost by 16.5
  • Liberty v Troy O61.5 Lost by 27.5
  • Army v Western Kentucky U52 Lost by 21
  • LATE ADD-  U56.5 Tennessee v. Pitt Lost by 18.5

I returned to earth this week lol.  Coastal just squeaked by and then I got obliterated on my other picks.

That puts me at 12-5 and up 45% on the year but I'm going into Week 3 reminded that I don't know shit.

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7 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

I returned to earth this week lol.  Coastal just squeaked by and then I got obliterated on my other picks.

That puts me at 12-5 and up 45% on the year but I'm going into Week 3 reminded that I don't know shit.

Does betting on these obscure games make it where ya want to watch them? I try to watch a lot of ball but those games were not on the must see list lol

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1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Does betting on these obscure games make it where ya want to watch them? I try to watch a lot of ball but those games were not on the must see list lol

Definitely.  Some of my favorite CFB moments in last few years have been non-marquee to obscure weeknight games I bet (see Tulsa hail mary against Tulane or 2018 Egg Bowl).  It's not by design but upside is it often working out to where I have something I'm interested in watching all day.  

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Early Week 3 and I only have these so far but will look to add more:

Mich St +6.5 vs. Miami (This is just a Manny _iaz fade)

Purdue +7 vs. ND (ND has looked like trash and their win against FSU is pretty much meaningless now)

Lines that intrigue me but I haven't touched:

Neb +22 vs. OUsux
VT +3 vs. WVU
UF +15.5 vs. Bama
SCe +30.5 vs. UGA
Aub +6 vs. PSU
OSU -26.5 vs. Tulsa

Thoughts?


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The books will obviously adjust, but through two weeks here are the biggest over and under achievers vs the line according to espn

Worst underachievement vs. closing line through two weeks, 2021

Navy: 53 points
Ohio: 52.5
Georgia State: 51.5
Georgia Southern: 47.5
Washington: 43
Iowa State: 36.5
Louisiana: 34.5
Oklahoma State: 32.5
Vanderbilt: 31.5
Rice, Washington State: 31
Colorado State, UConn, Northwestern: 30.5

Greatest overachievement vs. closing line through two weeks, 2021:

Rutgers: 40 points
Iowa: 38.5
Utah State: 37.5
Georgia: 36
Army: 32.5
Michigan: 31
Marshall, Virginia: 30

 

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19 hours ago, Assman said:

Mich St +6.5 vs. Miami (This is just a Manny _iaz fade)
Neb +22 vs. OUsux

These are circled on my "looks interesting at first glance" list but I actually ended up on other side as you.

I can't argue with logic of a _iaz fade but I actually like Canes here (as someone who watched neither of their games this year).  MSU seems very mediocre to me and their win against NW doesn't impress as that team lost about everything from last year (which admittedly they also beat that squad to be fair).  Alabama was Alabama and App State actually had 10 starters back from what was a top 20 defense by most metrics.  I think Miami offense looks more like what it looked like last year and has no trouble scoring and I don't really believe MSU can keep up (a bottom 20 offense last year by most metrics).  

It does seem like a lot of points when you look at OU v Tulane game but I expect OU offense to finally be clicking and I have absolutely zero confidence in an Aaron Martinez led offense.  I really just think Nebraska is dog shit, which maybe is adequately baked in at 22 but I could see this being a beat down.

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Yep, I got my card for the week.  Looks like multiple differences of opinion within the thread this week.

  • Liberty - 27 v Old Dominion
  • Wake Forest -6 v Florida State
  • Alabama -15.5 @ Florida
  • OU -22 v Nebraska
  • Miami -6.5 v Michigan State
  • UCF -7 @ Louisville (I actually regret placing this one)

Didn't realized until I placed my bets that I didn't pick a single dog.  I'm probably succumbing to some simpleton gambling fallacy but whatever, let it rip.

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Maryland -7 

Feel pretty good about this one after reading up a bit.  

Illinois got handled pretty easily by Virginia last week, and I think they will get slapped around again this week by Maryland.

The Terrapins only allowed 24 points to West Virginia and they have a much better offense than the Illini do. Maryland scored 30 points on WVU also, and again, a better defense than Illinois.

The Illini defense currently ranks 227th in passing defense, 158th in rushing defense, and 182nd in points allowed. That’s awful.

 

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Here's my crazy parlay for the day, 25:1.   Counting on ND being trash again. Looking good so far with Mich St since Diaz is a disaster.   

 

Michigan State +6½-110MICHIGAN STATE vs MIAMI FLORIDAGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:00 pm
Oklahoma -22-115NEBRASKA vs OKLAHOMAGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:00 pm
Texas A&M -28½EvNEW MEXICO vs TEXAS A&MGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:00 pm
Colorado -2-110MINNESOTA vs COLORADOGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 01:00 pm
Purdue +7-105PURDUE vs NOTRE DAMEGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 02:30 pm
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