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40acredropout
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Went ahead and placed more small bets everywhere :)

Utah State +9½ 

Boston College +15 

Georgia/Arkansas Under 50

Alabama -14½ 

Florida -8 

Mississippi State +7 

Lsu -3½

Oregon State -2½ 

Nebraska/Northwestern Under

Oklahoma State -3½

West Virginia -7

Texas/Tcu Over 66½

Notre Dame +2½ 

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Okay, hot take:

I have this feeling in my gut that Joey Freshwater is going to end Saban's undefeated streak against former assistants. 

For all of his flaws, Kiffin shows up in big games and there is nothing he wants more than to beat Saban, especially after the drama surrounding his departure for the FAU job.

In his Tennessee season, it it weren't for a Terence Cody blocked FG as time expired, he would've pulled off the upset in Tuscaloosa. 

Last year Ole Miss is the only team besides UGA that ever had Alabama on the ropes (tied at half) but ultimately lost by 2 touchdowns in a track meet as Ole Miss defense couldn't keep up (were objectively awful last season-  113th in yards per play, 99th in points per play).

This Ole Miss team is much improved across the board.  Corral is a legitimate QB and they are going to put up points.  They returned 10 defensive starters and are performing much better (35th in yards per play, 49th in points per play).  In parts of Louisville and Tulane (very good offense) games I watched, they certainly looked the part.

Watching UVA and Michigan State handle Miami really calls into question how meaningful Bama's early season win was.  Then a Florida team only returning 9 starters from last season just took Alabama to the wire-  In second half, Bama gave up 440 yards and allowed over 8 yards per play.  

This game is going to be fun as hell either way but I'm calling my shot on the upset.  

Sucker Underdog Moneyline Parlay:  Notre Dame +110, Syracuse +185, Miss State +225, Ole Miss +485.  $15 to win $1,353.

Edited by 40acredropout
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One more I'm on and then I'll shut up and watch my card light up in flames for the weekend.

BYU 1H -6.5 @ Utah State tonight. 

BYU 4-0 ATS 1H this year, covering on average by > 10 points.  This is their first road games which gives me a little pause but I think this is their easiest game so far this year and expect them to take care of business.

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Two popular picks I’m totally against this week.  
Arkansas, KJ Jefferson is not close to 100% and will be wearing a big metal knee brace. Limiting his running ability in that offense against a defense that is better than a&m’s, they might not score at all this week.  
 

K State, Skylar Thompson is out, the backup Howard is banged up and has not been good and the other qb, Lewis a unknown.  I think OU will cover easy here.  

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Everyone I know that bets CFB and their uncle is playing piggy and the points. Looks like a good side to stay away from.

Northwestern +11.5 at Nebraska and UNDER 51.5. Two shitty teams = take the points. Neither of these two teams should be giving two scores to anyone. Fitz has won in Lincoln. Also, hard play on the under.

SMall play on BC +14 at Clemson

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6 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

Two popular picks I’m totally against this week.  
Arkansas, KJ Jefferson is not close to 100% and will be wearing a big metal knee brace. Limiting his running ability in that offense against a defense that is better than a&m’s, they might not score at all this week.  
 

K State, Skylar Thompson is out, the backup Howard is banged up and has not been good and the other qb, Lewis a unknown.  I think OU will cover easy here.  

you guys are good.  I took Hog + points but am wary with that GA defense which can score 7-14 by itself and if they stop the Hog run, could get ugly.  Hog backup is a smooth VY type but probably not the passer that is Jefferson. 

Irish have won 26 straight at home. Looks like a good one to take ND ML. 

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So he’s a worse passer than Jefferson?  That’s scary.  Houston looks like easy money tonight.  Now I need BYU and Maryland to step up, only took Maryland because a few guys with really good records on sbrforum.com picked them. It’s a pretty good sports betting forum and the good ones post their picks and records as the year goes on, you just have to weed through the random ppl to find them.  If I just copied a few of those guys this year I’d be doing much better.  

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19 hours ago, hayden_horn said:

ok, i used to bet on the greek previously. I'm ready to get back on the game. what sites are yall using? 

sorry i haven't read the thread, just looking for advice and plan to join this thread with more content

I used bovada for a while then switched to Mybookie the last two years.  Once my account reaches 0 I’m switching back.  Both are good but bovada is just slightly better imho.  

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4 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:


These are wagers of a true degenerate.

She’s like 70% on the season, Vegas doesn’t put half the research into these games then they do the others.  Definitely less risk than my season on big games so far I’d say.

Edited by Hook1997
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4 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:


These are wagers of a true degenerate.

Ok you’re right. She was doing great….   I followed for a couple weeks before betting them today and of course she lost all but one. Lol   My Ark prediction came true but Thompson starting for K state ruined that play.  

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Oof, hence why nobody should ride my picks.  Had no idea Thompson was hurt.  Part of me wants to cancel that bet out now and just eat the vig but I'll probably just let it ride and hope for some more K-State magic.  
Just checked and line is up to 11 so the markets are in agreement with you.


Well Thompson played and KSU covered, so you ended up sitting pretty there. Nice.

Anyone seen a line for Texas-OU yet? I’d think anything from OU -2 to -7 is possible.
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On 9/26/2021 at 7:35 PM, Assman said:

I finished 2-2 this week, 11-5 for the season.

I locked in some early week 5 bets:

Fla -8 vs. UK

UT -4 vs. TCU and U66.5

USF v. SMU U68

Ore St +2.5 and +120 ML vs. Wash

ND +2.5 and +120 ML vs. Cincy

Pur -2 vs. Minn

Finished 5-4 for the week, 16-9 for the season.

Only 2 early bets for next week that I jumped on.  I'll see how the lines move to see which ones I'll pick up later.

Mich - 3 vs. Neb

Bama -17.5 vs. aggy

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On 9/30/2021 at 12:01 PM, 40acredropout said:

 

  • Arkansas +18.5 @ UGA LOSS- LOL
  • Notre Dame +2.5 v. Cinci LOSS
  • WVU -7 v. TTU LOSS
  • Ole Miss +14.5 @ Bama LOSS
  • Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky LOSS
  • BC +16 @ Clemson WIN
  • Miss State +7 @ aggy WIN
  • Fresno State -10.5 @ Hawaii LOSS
  • Added After Post:
    • Virginia ML @ Miami WIN
    • BYU -6.5 1H @ Utah State WIN
    • Syracuse +5.5 @ FSU WIN

 

Thank god I added to my card.  Ended up at 5-6 on the week, 24-20 on the year;  I'm quickly regressing to the mean.

Not exactly sure how I should (or if I want to) play it but looking at Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State on Thursday.  Line already moved from 17.5 to 20.   Coastal O vs. AS D is as lopsided of a matchup as I've seen:

Coastal Offense:

  • Points Per Play:  .72 (3rd in country)
  • Yards Per Rush: 6.0 (4th)
  • Yards Per Pass Attempt:  11.3 (2nd)

Arkansas State Defense:

  • Points Per Play:  .70 (128th in country... out of 130)
  • Yards Per Rush:  7.3 (129th)
  • Yards Per Pass Attempt:  10.5 (128th)

 

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tonight Temple +30 @ Cincinatti.  Temple has won 4 of the last 5 meetings with the one loss (most recent meeting 2019)  a close one 15-13 to an 11-3 Bearcat team.  Temple beat Memphis who beat Miss State (who just beat Aggy).  This line is too massive IMO.    The ML is about +2200 and worth a shot too.  The Over 54 is very enticing. 

Tx OU over 63 1/2 .  IMO this game goes 75-90 since both Defenses are soft and both have good offenses. 

Edited by Make em eat Taco Bell
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On 10/5/2021 at 9:16 AM, 40acredropout said:

Trying to be more programmatic / less of a dipshit in how I arrive at my picks. 

Put the following together to look at matchups based on a few simple metrics;  thought some of you might find interesting / helpful.

 

Week 6 Matchups.png

Here in Vegas this morning. Can't read that sheet on small screen.

Give me your top 8 sure-things, and I will wrap them up in a parlay.

Thanks.

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Bama first half 10.5 or 11 is the lock of the week but everyone has been saying that so that means it might fail.  But looks fool proof, I’m on it.  Bama d might get lazy second half and only win by 17 is what I’m afraid of for the full game.  

Edited by Hook1997
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Rolling into Saturday 2-0.  
 

Had Coastal -20 and then got ASU -14.5 live at +121 when Stanford’s 2nd string kicker got hurt.   Didn’t end up mattering but liked that payout at the time.
 

Saturday card:

O44 WVU @ Baylor 

Bama -17.5 @ aggy 

Air Force -6 v Wyoming

SDSU -19.5 v UNM

UCLA -8 1H @ Arizona

 

Good luck fellas

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On 10/9/2021 at 1:02 AM, 40acredropout said:

Rolling into Saturday 2-0.  
 

Had Coastal -20 and then got ASU -14.5 live at +121 when Stanford’s 2nd string kicker got hurt.   Didn’t end up mattering but liked that payout at the time.
 

Saturday card:

O44 WVU @ Baylor  WIN

Bama -17.5 @ aggy LOSS lol

Air Force -6 v Wyoming WIN

SDSU -19.5 v UNM WIN

UCLA -8 1H @ Arizona LOSS

Last minute add: Ole Miss -4.5 v Arkansas LOSS

Ended up 5-3, up to 29-23 overall (55.8%) and up 14% on the year.   Got some work to do to get back to 60%.

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On 10/8/2021 at 9:16 PM, Assman said:

I don't see a lot of easy money this week except Bama v. aggy.  I only have 3 total bets this week:

Bama - 17.5 vs. aggy

Iowa -2 vs. Penn St

Mich -3 vs. Neb

Charliemurphy Wrong GIF - Charliemurphy Wrong GIFs

17-10-1 for the season.

I haven't made any week 7 bets yet because nothing jumps out at me.  I think we're finally to the point in the season where we know exactly who each team is, therefore there are no discrepancies in the lines.  I'll reevaluate tomorrow night after a few beers.

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