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Kenpom 2022-23


shadow_operative
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coach beard missing one game has already had a significant impact on our kenpom rankings:

9DC7DF68-DDAC-4DFC-B8BB-109888F975D2.thumb.jpeg.89097cc09735bd8a3e16ae5a17e377e3.jpeg

our AdjEM took a huge drop, and our predicted record went from 27-4 (15-3) to 24-8 (12-6). be prepared for monday's performance against rice to not be a one-off. beard being gone is a huge loss. so huge that even the computers have recognized it and adjusted accordingly.

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6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

coach beard missing one game has already had a significant impact on our kenpom rankings:

our AdjEM took a huge drop, and our predicted record went from 27-4 (15-3) to 24-8 (12-6). be prepared for monday's performance against rice to not be a one-off. beard being gone is a huge loss. so huge that even the computers have recognized it and adjusted accordingly.

We all saw what we saw, it doesn't surprise me that KenPom's algorithm reflected it.  An OT win against a bad team doesn't look good.  The big question will be whether or not that was a one-time issue that can be resolved as the team absorbs the shock of Beard's suspension/dismissal, or whether they're toast.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/8/2022 at 1:17 AM, shadow_operative said:

 

A37B0F37-013C-48F1-B499-CCE69C6C6B80.thumb.jpeg.2d3e2075e326926e4a292609b7888991.jpeg

 

this is staggering:

C0DF6B20-2D70-4B03-960B-67592DF86761.thumb.jpeg.453f326713561f72b8dc746a160ae8d4.jpeg

 

same exact players, two completely different teams. one of the three best defenses in america under beard, into the worst defense in the league under terry. overnight. maybe, just maybe some folks's eyes will start to open as to just how important a HC to its team's success. and maybe, just maybe we'll stop acting like rodney terry and grant mccasland would be great replacements for chris beard.

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We were 10-8 last year right? (10-9 if you include the conference tourney?) Which got us a 6 seed because we didn't have any quality non conference wins.

I would take 11-7 in a heartbeat this year. That's probably a top 3-4 finish in the conference and like a 4 seed.

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On 1/13/2023 at 7:50 PM, shadow_operative said:

weirdest schedule/results ever for a no.9 team in the kenpom rankings:

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00F17AF7-59B4-400E-986C-DFA9A2264223.thumb.jpeg.b70dbb976a5fbd1bf8b205adb5f9b6ea.jpeg

It's because they beat #61 UNT by 30 and only lost by 5 to Houston. They also have a few other big wins against middling teams. 

If you told UH they had to beat St. Marys by 15 points they'd probably get smoked. 

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Perimeter D is a problem.  Surprisingly.
 
Still, very fun team to watch.

I’d be interested to see if/how different those stats are if you take away the KState game - the basket was as big as an ocean for them that night. 13/24 from three.
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7 minutes ago, KingBobo81 said:


I’d be interested to see if/how different those stats are if you take away the KState game - the basket was as big as an ocean for them that night. 13/24 from three.

Dead last in conference

Take away that game, opponents are still 44/129 (34%), which is middle of the pack in the Big 12

KSU is the #2 3FG% team and ISU is #1.  They were a combined 22/48 (45.8%).  And TCU is #3 (4/15), so all together that is 26/63 (41%).  And we still have 3 more games against those 3 teams. 

Edited by Js1
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imagine it's early december- Texas is top 3-4 in kenpom, with an elite defense and a near elite offense. we've crushed arkansas; we've depantsed gonzaga; we've handled creighton; you (rightfully) believe that Texas may very well be the best team in America and the favorites to win the ncaa tourney. and then, by some mystical happenstance, you're given a glimpse into the future; the near future; 5-6 weeks into the future; and you see this:

F27E3908-53B1-4AC1-98D3-0F5C9A0AD315.thumb.jpeg.da56c4b4738ca07ddea96871b6f7a202.jpeg

Rick Barnes and Tennessee at no.1 overall with the no.1 defense. Shaka Smart and Marquette at no.8 with the country's no.1 offense. and then there's Texas, at no.10, with a wildly subpar defense by chris beard standards, and rodney terry is our head coach. 

giphy.gif?cid=2154d3d7b3r262i9ewforq7xst

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3 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

imagine it's early december- Texas is top 3-4 in kenpom, with an elite defense and a near elite offense. we've crushed arkansas; we've depantsed gonzaga; we've handled creighton; you (rightfully) believe that Texas may very well be the best team in America and the favorites to win the ncaa tourney. and then, by some mystical happenstance, you're given a glimpse into the future; the near future; 5-6 weeks into the future; and you see this:

F27E3908-53B1-4AC1-98D3-0F5C9A0AD315.thumb.jpeg.da56c4b4738ca07ddea96871b6f7a202.jpeg

Rick Barnes and Tennessee at no.1 overall with the no.1 defense. Shaka Smart and Marquette at no.8 with the country's no.1 offense. and then there's Texas, at no.10, with a wildly subpar defense by chris beard standards, and rodney terry is our head coach. 

giphy.gif?cid=2154d3d7b3r262i9ewforq7xst

It's a shit sandwich for sure. But are we taking bets on who wins more tournament games?

I like 2023 Marcus Carr more than anyone on either of those squads. 

Let's just please hire an actual coach this offseason. Terry doesn't know what the fuck he's doing. 

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42 minutes ago, ztejas said:

It's a shit sandwich for sure. But are we taking bets on who wins more tournament games?

I like 2023 Marcus Carr more than anyone on either of those squads. 

Let's just please hire an actual coach this offseason. Terry doesn't know what the fuck he's doing. 

that's the thing- as depressed as i am that this team is no longer a league/national title favorite, i absolutely have Texas going as far as/further than marquette, and depending on matchups it could be a coin flip as to who goes further between Texas and Tennessee. if Hunter is back healthy and/or we are shooting well, the Elite 8 is 100% a realistic goal. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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8 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

that's the thing- as depressed as i am that this team is no longer a league/national title favorite, i absolutely have Texas going as far as/further than marquette, and depending on matchups it could be a coin flip as to who goes further between Texas and Tennessee. if Hunter is back healthy and/or we are shooting well, the Elite 8 is 100% a realistic goal. 

Agree, but I've become more pessimistic as our 3-point defense has regressed. If we/our opponents play to our mean, I like our chances. If we run into a team with a hot hand or two, I have zero confidence in our ability to adjust.

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