2023 Houston Astros Thread

[Hank Chinaski 6305]

36 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Chas: 115 wRC+
Dubon: 97 wRC+
Julks: 91 wRC+

just…why? This isn’t controversial. In 2023 we know how to assess a hitter’s value, and we know how to assemble lineups based on that value. It isn’t rocket science, and common sense dictates that you should structure your lineup in a way that maximizes the run-scoring probabilities of the team. We intentionally don’t do that. Think about that.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

44 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Swap Yordan for Julks and we have our best line up. 
 

hit Yordan 3rd, swap bregman and dubon (maybe) 

Best Lineup shouldn't ever have Maldy in it, not if we are talking about offense.  Best lineup also can't have Dubon hitting anywhere at the top of the lineup. Yada Yada Yada, batting average, yada yada yada - he's an average offensive player at his best and that's if you think a 335 BABIP is sustainable (it's not). He's in our best 9 bats (if Brantley isn't healthy) but he is like at the ass end of that.  

But yeah- this lineup isn't horrible today, I'm ok with it. 

[David Dennison 17660]

Pena not hitting second is pretty horrible.

[tx 3 putt 74771]

5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Best Lineup shouldn't ever have Maldy in it, not if we are talking about offense.  Best lineup also can't have Dubon hitting anywhere at the top of the lineup. Yada Yada Yada, batting average, yada yada yada - he's an average offensive player at his best and that's if you think a 335 BABIP is sustainable (it's not). He's in our best 9 bats (if Brantley isn't healthy) but he is like at the ass end of that.  

But yeah- this lineup isn't horrible today, I'm ok with it. 

Offense / Defense / Pitching to win games 

 

chas is the piece that we move. If drew is the future, we move chas. Find another straw type deal - a Maton and Diaz type. He won’t bring instant relief. After drew, we have plenty of OF prospects in the system to try out. Julks still has upside (hopefully) but chas has the most value of the three right now. We moved straw and Siri, we’ll move chas. Drew is better than anyone we had lined up to replace those two 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

14 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Chas: 115 wRC+
Dubon: 97 wRC+
Julks: 91 wRC+

just…why? This isn’t controversial. In 2023 we know how to assess a hitter’s value, and we know how to assemble lineups based on that value. It isn’t rocket science, and common sense dictates that you should structure your lineup in a way that maximizes the run-scoring probabilities of the team. We intentionally don’t do that. Think about that.

Baby steps. As you know, the most important thing in lineup construction is picking the right guys to be in the lineup.  Our best 9 (at feasible positions (by ops+)

Altuve- 120

Diaz- 117

Tucker- 117

Chas- 111

Bregman- 103

Pena- 96

Dubon- 96

Julks- 90

Meyers- 88

Abreu- 63

Maldy- 56

Julks has overtaken Meyers after the 0-20. Meyers is a better fielder- I'd still play Meyers every day. So- that's it- that's your hitters lined up in order of value.  Of course- Yordan is at the very tip top.

You want to turn this into an order

Diaz- C; Dubon- 1st, Altuve- 2nd, Pena- SS, Bregman- 3B, Julks- DH, Chas- LF, Meyers- CF, Tucker- RF

That's also probably your best defensive lineup. There are zero stats that say Maldy is a better defender than Diaz. Dubon would be fine at 1b.  That's your best defensive OF.  Then- Yordan hits for Julks at DH when he comes back- if you wanted to make the best lineup possible.

Order the sabermetrics guys would tell you looks like this;

Altuve/Yordan/Chas/Tucker/Diaz/Bregman/Pena/Dubon/Meyers

That's what your numbers say is the best lineup. If you believe that Bregman is a better hitter than Diaz (I'm indifferent toward this idea- I think Diaz might be a really good hitter) then flip Bregman and Diaz

 

[tx 3 putt 74771]

I don’t dig this deep but they do, what are the numbers vs todays starter ?

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

13 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Offense / Defense / Pitching to win games 

 

chas is the piece that we move. If drew is the future, we move chas. Find another straw type deal - a Maton and Diaz type. He won’t bring instant relief. After drew, we have plenty of OF prospects in the system to try out. Julks still has upside (hopefully) but chas has the most value of the three right now. We moved straw and Siri, we’ll move chas. Drew is better than anyone we had lined up to replace those two 

I'm fine with moving Chas- as long as we get something real for him and not shit. LIke- a legit Top 100 pitching prospect and another couple lotto tickets. I suspect you are right and Gilbert is a Dude.  I'd rather keep Chas and let him play LF and make Jake a really good 4th OF (and get rid of Julks), but our strongest area in the organization is OF and our weakest is probably pitching (IF is also sort of shit) so yeah- any kind of trade like that would be fine by me.  

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I don’t dig this deep but they do, what are the numbers vs todays starter ?

I don't generally care beyond handedness. Nobody has a big enough sample size to matter. 

[David Dennison 17660]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Baby steps. As you know, the most important thing in lineup construction is picking the right guys to be in the lineup.  Our best 9 (at feasible positions (by ops+)

Altuve- 120

Diaz- 117

Tucker- 117

Chas- 111

Bregman- 103

Pena- 96

Dubon- 96

Julks- 90

Meyers- 88

Abreu- 63

Maldy- 56

Julks has overtaken Meyers after the 0-20. Meyers is a better fielder- I'd still play Meyers every day. So- that's it- that's your hitters lined up in order of value.  Of course- Yordan is at the very tip top.

You want to turn this into an order

Diaz- C; Dubon- 1st, Altuve- 2nd, Pena- SS, Bregman- 3B, Julks- DH, Chas- LF, Meyers- CF, Tucker- RF

That's also probably your best defensive lineup. There are zero stats that say Maldy is a better defender than Diaz. Dubon would be fine at 1b.  That's your best defensive OF.  Then- Yordan hits for Julks at DH when he comes back- if you wanted to make the best lineup possible.

Order the sabermetrics guys would tell you looks like this;

Altuve/Yordan/Chas/Tucker/Diaz/Bregman/Pena/Dubon/Meyers

That's what your numbers say is the best lineup. If you believe that Bregman is a better hitter than Diaz (I'm indifferent toward this idea- I think Diaz might be a really good hitter) then flip Bregman and Diaz

 

And the odds of benching Abreu are?

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

Here is your list of guys by PA and their corresponding OPS+ (this is what drives many so insane about Dusty)

Bregman- 323-  103

Abreu- 301- 63

Tucker- 300- 117

Pena- 292- 96

Yordan- 242- 166

Dubon- 239- 96

Meyers- 205- 88

Julks- 200- 90

Maldy- 189- 56

Chas- 146- 111

Diaz- 122- 117

Altuve- 100- 120

Hensley- 86- 32

 

Maldy, Julks, Hensley and abreu have stolen 180 AB's from Diaz.  He could/should have played almost every single day due to having at least a 50/50 split at catcher, plus D and 1B every day he's not catching (minus normal rest) and he should have been hitting at the top half of the order.

Chas also has probably had 150 AB's stolen from him as well.  If you replace 350 PA's this year with your 111 and 117 OPS guys and that comes at the expense of your 32, 56, 63 and 90 OPS guys you are talking about way more production.  Altuve could have 120 PA's instead of 100 but that's quibbling.  Dubon is probably about right on PA's but those should come spread over more games at the expense of Abreu, while hitting lower in the lineup.  

Basically Subtract the following PA from these guys and we are good:

Maldy- 100, Abreu- 100 (this still leaves him playing 2/3 plus of the time), Julks- 100, Hensley 50 and give them to Diaz and Chas and I bet we've scored something like 20 or 26 more runs right now.  Which would mean probably 3 more wins. Which would have us knocking on the door of 1st place and feeling a lot better about ourselves.  This is the cost of playing the wrong guys all the time and hitting them in the wrong order. 

 

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And the odds of benching Abreu are?

When Yordan comes back? I certainly hope Diaz takes 1B twice a week, catches thrice a week and DH's once a week.  That would make everything better. Or, when Brantley comes back maybe he platoons at 1b with Abreu.  That's what I'd like to see.  

[UTexasFight 9288]

26 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I don’t dig this deep but they do, what are the numbers vs todays starter ?

What Wulaw said about sample size, but for the record, no one in our starting lineup has faced their starter 

[Mo Horn 8680]

With the way Diaz is hitting, do you sit Maldy when Yordan comes back? 

[Hank Chinaski 6305]

52 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

chas is the piece that we move. If drew is the future, we move chas. 

Disagree. This is a team with current and upcoming offensive uncertainties; Chas is a known quantity at this point - he’s 10-15% better than league average offensively and good defensively, with more years of team control. He has surplus value because he is an above-average starting CF making relative peanuts, even if Dusty treats him as though he isn’t.

I mean, of course, it depends on who you get back; but seeking to trade Chas right now doesn’t make a ton of sense. Playing him in CF every day instead makes way more sense. I’d much rather see the FO tell Dusty to cut the shit and play him everyday than try to move him.

Gilbert isn’t going to be in Houston until a year from now at the earliest. And he’s obviously not a sure thing. A very likely outcome for him is - basically Chas McCormick. And that would be good.

A team that regularly starts a below-average hitter in the OF shouldn’t be trading an above-average starting OF unless it is punting on the rest of the season. 

[IDIOTsavant 8419]

20 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

With the way Diaz is hitting, do you sit Maldy when Yordan comes back? 

 

….you do it BEFORE Yordan comes back.

[UTPhil2006 3754]

So once we trade Tucker and Chas, and DFA Meyers, and send down Julk, as you all have suggested.. are one of y’all playing OF?

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

34 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

With the way Diaz is hitting, do you sit Maldy when Yordan comes back? 

Yes!  Yes yes yes yes yes.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

18 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Disagree. This is a team with current and upcoming offensive uncertainties; Chas is a known quantity at this point - he’s 10-15% better than league average offensively and good defensively, with more years of team control. He has surplus value because he is an above-average starting CF making relative peanuts, even if Dusty treats him as though he isn’t.

I mean, of course, it depends on who you get back; but seeking to trade Chas right now doesn’t make a ton of sense. Playing him in CF every day instead makes way more sense. I’d much rather see the FO tell Dusty to cut the shit and play him everyday than try to move him.

Gilbert isn’t going to be in Houston until a year from now at the earliest. And he’s obviously not a sure thing. A very likely outcome for him is - basically Chas McCormick. And that would be good.

A team that regularly starts a below-average hitter in the OF shouldn’t be trading an above-average starting OF unless it is punting on the rest of the season. 

Trading Chas is certainly less bold than trading Tucker.  I'm in favor of them trading one club controlled OF that should have excess value, so if it's Chas so be it. As long as you get a real piece.  But I sort of don't think you will get a top 100 prospect for Chas- even though I think you should be able to get a top 100 propsect for Chas. I think Dusty has put a stink on him that's destroyed his value. 

[Mo Horn 8680]

18 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:

 

….you do it BEFORE Yordan comes back.

I wouldn't be mad. Let Dubon DH.

[tx 3 putt 74771]

3 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

I wouldn't be mad. Let Dubon DH.

he’s the second best hitter on the team 

[David Dennison 17660]

59 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

When Yordan comes back? I certainly hope Diaz takes 1B twice a week, catches thrice a week and DH's once a week.  That would make everything better. Or, when Brantley comes back maybe he platoons at 1b with Abreu.  That's what I'd like to see.  

I don't see a reduction in playing time for Abreu or Maldy.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

16 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

So once we trade Tucker and Chas, and DFA Meyers, and send down Julk, as you all have suggested.. are one of y’all playing OF?

I mean- it's not like one person saying all those things. This organization has a ton of pieces in the OF though.  I'd rank them organizationally like this right now if you had to play tomorrow:

Alvarez, Tucker, Chas, Jake, Dubon, Dirden, Julks, Leon, Gilbert, Corona, Melton, Clifford.  

Next year this is a possible rank for those guys:

Alvarez, Tucker, Gilbert, Chas, Leon, Meyers, Dirden, Julks, Corona, Melton, Clifford.

I think your eta (if they end up good) on Gilbert, Leon, Dirden is 24

Melton, Corona- 25

Clifford- 26

Clifford might become a 1st baseman.  That doesn't even count a couple other guys like Barber or the like down on the farm.  If you got enough stuff at the deadline you really could trade Tucker, Chas and Jake (I wouldn't) and roll with an OF of Gilbert, Leon, Alvarez, Dirden, Julks.  You'd better get something like 5 top 100 prospects and 3 or 4 organizational top 10-20 guys in addition to that, but if you did you'd immediately have the following resources for 2024:

All star Caliber players:  Yordan, Altuve, Bregman, Diaz

Solid players: Pena, Gilbert, 

Question marks- Abreu, Leon, Lee ( I assume Maldy is gone)

Plus you'd likely have $50M to spend and the best farm system in baseball, bar none.  

I wouldn't trade but 1 of them but that path is actually pretty interesting to me at least. I can only remember like 1 time it was ever done in real life and that was with the Marlins, who ended up winning another WS in 5 years with the players they got from trading away their first WS team.

I'd argue with our pitching and the guys I have as All Star Caliber players if we did it right our window after a major sale of our entire starting OF at this deadline (and that would be a huge sale with basically 10 years of club control going out the window) we would be locked and loaded and ready to compete for WS titles in 2024 at least through the end of Yordan's time as an Astro.  But yeah, OF is the least concern here. We just need to play our good ones.  

[Mo Horn 8680]

Dubon playing 1st today

[Guadaloopy 10757]

Dial it in, dude.

[David Dennison 17660]

Less than ideal.

[Mo Horn 8680]

Playing with fire early

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

17 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I don't see a reduction in playing time for Abreu or Maldy.

Of course not. That's the complaint with this stubborn ass crusty old dude who nobody has ever said is even a decent strategic manager. 

[Guadaloopy 10757]

No bueno

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

19 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

he’s the second best hitter on the team 

Based upon what?  

[tx 3 putt 74771]

Rough start 

[tx 3 putt 74771]

Nice DP !

[Guadaloopy 10757]

What a gift.

[David Dennison 17660]

Easy call.

[Mo Horn 8680]

That's useful

[Guadaloopy 10757]

Yep... wasn't even close.   Maldy's throw was in line with the base and hit him.

[Mo Horn 8680]

Don't piss away that gift Javier

[David Dennison 17660]

Whew.

[Guadaloopy 10757]

Holy crap.  No-hit shutout intact.

[Mo Horn 8680]

Crazy inning. As Javier regularly does, threw way too many pitches, but no harm done. 

[WBT 20132]

Dancing through the raindrops 

[tx 3 putt 74771]

[Guadaloopy 10757]

Mo Doubles

[Gourmand 7761]

1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

With the way Diaz is hitting, do you sit Maldy when Yordan comes back? 

[Mo Horn 8680]

More gifts. Thanks

[tx 3 putt 74771]

A quick Javier inning would be nice 

[David Dennison 17660]

10 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

A quick Javier inning would be nice 

Sigh.

[Mo Horn 8680]

Fuck

[David Dennison 17660]

This has to be his worst start as an Astro.

[WBT 20132]

And Julks's defense costs us 2 runs.  Why does it feel like he's the first name on the lineup card these days?

Edited June 21, 2023 by WBT

[Mo Horn 8680]

Just now, WBT said:

And Julks's defense cost us 2 runs.  Why does it feel like he's the first name on the lineup card these days?

I don't think he gets to it anyway. 

[Tommy Nobis 905]

And Julks's defense cost us 2 runs.  Why does it feel like he's the first name on the lineup card these days?

Because Dusty is a clown. How many different lineups have we started this year? Probably a fuck ton.