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Posted

I’m stoked about the win and the team overcoming adversity. 
 

I don’t know wtf Arsten has to do to play himself off the field, but he cannot be much worse. I don’t give a shit about his goal. He doesn’t belong at this level, forget about next summer. 
 

 

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Posted
Well done Freeze.
For the next game put Arfsten, Berhalter, and *Abyemang on the bench.
*Apparently, he has no backup so IDK.
Hell. Put Luna up top. Let's see what that little hamster can do.
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Posted
1 minute ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Well done Freeze.

For the next game put Arfsten, Berhalter, and *Abyemang on the bench.

*Apparently, he has no backup so IDK.

Yea Agyemang has to play but Poch needs to pull the trigger on subs faster. Who you bringing in for Berhalter? 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Well done Freeze.

For the next game put Arfsten, Berhalter, and *Abyemang on the bench.

*Apparently, he has no backup so IDK.

I thought GGG Jr played well.  Arfsten can grab some pine though. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Yea Agyemang has to play but Poch needs to pull the trigger on subs faster. Who you bringing in for Berhalter? 

Myself.  Guy sucks ass.  I don't care who his daddy is.

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Posted
1 minute ago, RamjetFDO said:
4 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:
Well done Freeze.
For the next game put Arfsten, Berhalter, and *Abyemang on the bench.
*Apparently, he has no backup so IDK.

Hell. Put Luna up top. Let's see what that little hamster can do.

He's too valuable at the 10.

I don't think Agyameng is as terrible as some are making him out to be. He's at least big as shit and can win balls and play with his back to the goal a little bit. 

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Posted

I will say this - if our #2s can start getting a fire under their ass, they start to push the #1s. I'll say this - today Tilman just got me off the Gio train. And at the worst - he is going to make Gio fight for his spot to be the #1. 

 

Get a little of this back on the team

 

tumblr_inline_mm6qqpVv4s1qz4rgp.gif

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Imagine the difference in this game if you replaced Arfsten with Jedi.

also, Dortmund completely screwed Gio.  He should be playing with the Nats.

Yeah, fuck Dortmund too.

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Posted

All this talk about the GK position, it makes me wonder, should Turner come back to the MLS? Worst move he ever made was going to Arsenal, since then he’s never gotten regular & consistent time. Maybe a return to the MLS would do him well? It got Steffen back on the map, if even the edge. 

Posted
8 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Lmao, dude had a goal and an assist but also scored a goal for Costa Rica with that dumbass penalty. He redeemed himself but to call him man of the match is insane when the goalie bailed our ass out in the shootout. 

He also got smoked on Costa Rica's 2nd goal. To be fair LDT was also involved, but it was pathetic defending. 

Posted

One thing I learned about Arfsten, he mainly plays as an attacking winger for the Crew.   That makes sense as he seems confident and competent going forward, he just isn't a defender.   

Posted
2 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

All this talk about the GK position, it makes me wonder, should Turner come back to the MLS? Worst move he ever made was going to Arsenal, since then he’s never gotten regular & consistent time. Maybe a return to the MLS would do him well? It got Steffen back on the map, if even the edge. 

 

Geez, I just looked this up - Since going to Europe, across all teams & competitions, Turner has made 32 appearances - the bulk being the 23-24 season at Forest, 21 appearances.

His last 2 (well 1 season + 5 games) season in the MLS for the Revs - 33 appearances.

Posted

europe is not the problem

it's big club big money contracts that are the problem

 

keller was in the top 5 in the world so he was able to hold down the #1 position for millwall, leicester and rayo vallecano across 9 seasons

he only held the #1 job at spurs for 1 year and then primarily played in cups the last 3 seasons managing 85 total appearances across 4 years

at that point he was the US #2 and i would rate him only in the top 25 in the world

after 78 games as the #1 for borussia mönchengladbach then a few months with fulham he came home to seattle

 

forest, despite being in the wilderness for 30 years, have 2 stars above their crest

they think they are a massive side

no american keeper at a massive side is going to keep the #1 job without absolute perfection - 1 mistake and they're out - see howard, tim

turner did not have the resume to sign with forest but the money was sweet - the expectation for us keepers in england is leicester/keller and black-villa/friedel

 

the best us keeper in history is brad friedel

he was top 5 in the world in 02 coming out of japan/korea

here's his career:

1995–1996 Galatasaray 30

1996–1997 Columbus Crew 38

1997–2000 Liverpool 31 (THREE YEARS ONLY 31 APPS)

2000–2008 Blackburn Rovers 288

2008–2011 Aston Villa 114

2011–2015 Tottenham Hotspur 67 (granted at the end of his career but 67 apps across all comps over FOUR YEARS)

 

us keepers should never sign straight in to the prem much less a massive side like turner did rev -> arsenal

in 1 year at arsenal he had 7 appearances and 4 clean sheets

he wasted a year and derailed his career for a cut of a $6m transfer fee and now he's definitely not the nats #1

maybe there is news out there i can't find but the forest->lyon $9m transfer story is 3 weeks stale

i hope it falls through - ligue 1 is a terrible place for americans

he needs to go to the eredivisie and take minimum wage (whatever that is) to start for a contending side so he has a chance to compete with freese

 

how fickle are the soccer gods?

ethan horvath came off the bench in the first concalaugh nations league final, saved a pk and was the hero of the night in denver 4 years ago

after those heroics, with his brugge contract expired, he went to.....  forest.... BEFORE promotion...., where he was graciously allowed the following starts in 21-22:

Championship: 7
FA Cup: 2
League Cup (EFL Cup): 2

forest loaned him to luton and he was their #1 with 51 appearances and got luton promoted

cardiff wanted some of that and thought horvath could take them to the prem

after regaining the #1 job in feb this year he signed a 3.5-year deal through the end of the 27-28 season

here's the ai description of what happened to horvath over the last year:

+++

Ethan Horvath was the starting goalkeeper for Cardiff City at the beginning of the 2024-25 EFL Championship season.
He started the first four league matches before being replaced by Jak Alnwick.
He lost the #1 job on August 31, 2024. 
The reasons for this change were not explicitly stated, but comments from analysts suggest:

Horvath had a difficult performance in a 5-0 loss to Burnley.
Some analysts questioned his confidence and comfort level with playing the ball out from the back.
There were concerns about his shot-stopping, which had previously been considered a strength. 

It is worth noting that Horvath regained the starting position in February 2025 and played well, but Cardiff City was ultimately relegated to League One. It is expected that Horvath may leave the club in the summer transfer window.

+++

can he get out of the 3-year deal?

can he land someplace that has a supporting cast?

can that place in europe be visible to the us soccer community that creates the buzz around a player?

+++

the worst thing mls could do would be to sell freese to cash in on the instant buzz from last night

therefore, i expect that is exactly what they will do

 

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Posted
8 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

All this talk about the GK position, it makes me wonder, should Turner come back to the MLS? Worst move he ever made was going to Arsenal, since then he’s never gotten regular & consistent time. Maybe a return to the MLS would do him well? It got Steffen back on the map, if even the edge. 

 

3 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

europe is not the problem

it's big club big money contracts that are the problem

 

keller was in the top 5 in the world so he was able to hold down the #1 position for millwall, leicester and rayo vallecano across 9 seasons

he only held the #1 job at spurs for 1 year and then primarily played in cups the last 3 seasons managing 85 total appearances across 4 years

at that point he was the US #2 and i would rate him only in the top 25 in the world

after 78 games as the #1 for borussia mönchengladbach then a few months with fulham he came home to seattle

 

forest, despite being in the wilderness for 30 years, have 2 stars above their crest

they think they are a massive side

no american keeper at a massive side is going to keep the #1 job without absolute perfection - 1 mistake and they're out - see howard, tim

turner did not have the resume to sign with forest but the money was sweet - the expectation for us keepers in england is leicester/keller and black-villa/friedel

 

the best us keeper in history is brad friedel

he was top 5 in the world in 02 coming out of japan/korea

here's his career:

1995–1996 Galatasaray 30

1996–1997 Columbus Crew 38

1997–2000 Liverpool 31 (THREE YEARS ONLY 31 APPS)

2000–2008 Blackburn Rovers 288

2008–2011 Aston Villa 114

2011–2015 Tottenham Hotspur 67 (granted at the end of his career but 67 apps across all comps over FOUR YEARS)

 

us keepers should never sign straight in to the prem much less a massive side like turner did rev -> arsenal

in 1 year at arsenal he had 7 appearances and 4 clean sheets

he wasted a year and derailed his career for a cut of a $6m transfer fee and now he's definitely not the nats #1

maybe there is news out there i can't find but the forest->lyon $9m transfer story is 3 weeks stale

i hope it falls through - ligue 1 is a terrible place for americans

he needs to go to the eredivisie and take minimum wage (whatever that is) to start for a contending side so he has a chance to compete with freese

 

how fickle are the soccer gods?

ethan horvath came off the bench in the first concalaugh nations league final, saved a pk and was the hero of the night in denver 4 years ago

after those heroics, with his brugge contract expired, he went to.....  forest.... BEFORE promotion...., where he was graciously allowed the following starts in 21-22:

Championship: 7
FA Cup: 2
League Cup (EFL Cup): 2

forest loaned him to luton and he was their #1 with 51 appearances and got luton promoted

cardiff wanted some of that and thought horvath could take them to the prem

after regaining the #1 job in feb this year he signed a 3.5-year deal through the end of the 27-28 season

here's the ai description of what happened to horvath over the last year:

+++

Ethan Horvath was the starting goalkeeper for Cardiff City at the beginning of the 2024-25 EFL Championship season.
He started the first four league matches before being replaced by Jak Alnwick.
He lost the #1 job on August 31, 2024. 
The reasons for this change were not explicitly stated, but comments from analysts suggest:

Horvath had a difficult performance in a 5-0 loss to Burnley.
Some analysts questioned his confidence and comfort level with playing the ball out from the back.
There were concerns about his shot-stopping, which had previously been considered a strength. 

It is worth noting that Horvath regained the starting position in February 2025 and played well, but Cardiff City was ultimately relegated to League One. It is expected that Horvath may leave the club in the summer transfer window.

+++

can he get out of the 3-year deal?

can he land someplace that has a supporting cast?

can that place in europe be visible to the us soccer community that creates the buzz around a player?

+++

the worst thing mls could do would be to sell freese to cash in on the instant buzz from last night

therefore, i expect that is exactly what they will do

 

 

I guess this is more my point - our guys need regular playing time. MLS is easy, but smaller European clubs will get it done too. Fair point.

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Posted

rewatching the penals....

did not know mls2 ties go to penals.....  freese was 5 of 6 in philly union mls2 penals.....

freese went the wrong way on the tico's first kick then guessed correctly on the next 5

there are lots of datapoints out there about penals.....

+++

To determine the chance of correctly guessing the outcome of 5 consecutive penalty kicks, the probability of guessing correctly on a single kick is needed
.
1. Probability of guessing correctly on a single penalty kick:

    Assuming each penalty kick has two outcomes (goal or miss), the probability of guessing correctly by chance would be 1/2 or 50%.

2. Probability of guessing correctly on 5 consecutive penalty kicks:

    Because each penalty kick is considered an independent event, the probability of guessing all 5 correctly can be calculated by multiplying the probability of guessing each kick correctly together.
    Therefore, the probability of guessing 5 consecutive penalty kicks correctly is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = (1/2)^5 = 1/32.

Result:

    The chance of correctly guessing the outcome of 5 consecutive penalty kicks is 1/32 or approximately 3.125%.

Note: This calculation assumes a simple 50/50 chance for each penalty kick outcome. In reality, the probability of a penalty kick resulting in a goal is significantly higher, around 75-80%. However, when simply guessing the outcome without any knowledge of the player or situation, a 50/50 chance is a reasonable assumption.

+++

According to BBC, only 4% of penalties shot down the middle of the goal are saved. In contrast, 16% of penalties shot to the side are saved. However, shooting down the middle can also increase the chances of hitting the woodwork (7%) or missing the target completely (17%).
Other factors that can affect the outcome of a penalty kick include:

    Goalkeeper's position
    According to InnerDrive, goalkeepers are twice as likely to save a penalty if they stay in the middle of the goal instead of diving to the side. However, a 2021 study by Ben Lyttleton found that the middle of the goal is actually where goalkeepers save the most penalties.

Goalkeeper's anticipation
Goalkeepers who can anticipate the direction of the kick have a better chance of making a save.
Goalkeeper's height and reach
Taller goalkeepers with longer reaches may have an advantage in covering the goal.
Psychological tactics
Goalkeepers can use psychological tactics to distract the kicker. For example, a goalkeeper can stand slightly off-center to bias the penalty taker into kicking to the side with more space, allowing the goalkeeper to dive in that direction.

+++

the bolded part about going down the middle and skying the ball, especially if the attempt is a panenka soft-loft, doesn't seem to make sense, but recall baggio 94 to fucking LOSE the world cup:

+++

freese won this shootout over the world's former #1

navas is the most-decorated goalkeeeper in concacaf history - if you don't know it check it out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keylor_Navas

they both achieved an incredible statistical improbability of guessing correctly 5 in a row

if there are 3 possible choices, left-center-right then making 5 correct choices in a row is not .5*.5 etc. it's .33 * .33 * .33 * .33 * .33 = 0.004

and they both did it (navas kicks 1-5, freese kicks 2-6)

maybe i've seen battling keepers guess 5 in a row but i don't remember it

so freese' achievement is more remarkable in that on the day he did it besting the former world #1 when navas was also channeling the force with all-galaxy form

+++

choosing left right or down the middle is not the same thing as making the save - and that's how freese won

navas choices

1 correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved

2 correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved

3 correct - missed goal - not saveable - "saved"

4 correct - on goal - not saveable - not saved

5 correct - on goal - saveable - saved

6 not correct - on goal - not saveable - not saved

freese choices

1 not correct - on goal - not saveable - not saved

2 - correct - on goal - saveable - saved

3 - correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved

4 - correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved

5 - correct - on goal - saveable - saved (statue panenka!) (this is how the match was won)

6 - correct - on goal - saveable - saved

so the tale of the tape...

saveable - saved:

navas 1

freese 3

fingertips - not saved:

navas 2

freese 2

not saveable - not saved:

navas 2

freese 1

at the end of the day, the nats took 1 better kick, with a keeper that made +2 saves, when both keepers guessed correctly 5 in a row, despite beerholder2 keeping navas alive

this is just incredible when compared to the marianas trench graveyard of the three lions in tournament penals - you could see it in the ticos faces - with navas they were sure they were going to prevail

+++

shots down the middle

ticos: 2

nats: 0

i don't have a take on this but it's interesting - i don't recall any team going down the middle more than once in one set of penals

+++

sod over turf remains a FULL AGGY decision only concalaugh and mls can justify to themselves

+++

the older berhalter girl is going to be a supermodel

however, like father like son

the family karma is not copacetic with national team football

 

 

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