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Posted
10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

The route taking longer directly results in a reduced volume of oil being transported over a time frame, all while making the trip more expensive and therefore less profitable for Russia.

What started out as a war funded with a gigantic Russian rainy day petrodollar fund has turned into a war being funded by payday loans at usurious rates. 

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Posted
11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our officials need to stop embarrassing themselves with the Russians.  They aren’t backing down, the only understand force

 

"Ignoring Trump's push for peace."  Using him as a cuck again.  Someone needs to make sure he knows that.

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Posted
15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS

Natural gas prices in Europe have all but returned to normal since Russia's full scale war in Ukraine. In fact, the only reason for the spike in 2021 and 2022 has been Russia's energy war against Europe, which started even before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. The numbers clearly say that. 

It proves many things: Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically. Russian energy was always unreliable. Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.

I saw the downfall of Southstream.

I saw the downfall of Nordstream. 

And now the whole European market for Russian gas is getting buried.

This is what I mean when I say that Russia is losing in the long run. All what you need is determination, patience and tenacity.

The European market was the primary reason why Russia raked in so much money the last three decades.

The European customers were reliable, paid well and were easily to access, who in turn put in a lot of investments into Russia. Now all of that is gone because of petty imperial ambitions of a short man who never accepted the downfall of the Soviet empire.

Russia is now forced to sell oil and gas with huge price cuts, which barely covers processing costs while India and China completely suck out the last bits of life from Russia.

 

14 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Kinda like China and US soybeans!

I'm not that familiar with the European gas market (I don't have tome to go down that rabbit hole), so i'm not exactly sure what gas price is shown in the graph. 

But my first guess is that is an apples and boxcars comparison.

Below is a similar plot of US gas prices, with no indication of the source of the data. Directionally, it appears to be valid information, but the entities that have the trading data also tend to have an agenda, so beware. 

image.png.5c64339920f7d6fd2611b46e8786e68b.png

If you over lay the two plots, they are similar, which one might conclude that US and European prices are the same.

In one sense they are, but in reality, they are very different. The US has 100's (1,000's) of supply points and 1,000's of delivery points, with 1000's of transactions reflected in the gas spot market price at a specific point in time. In the US, the paper price is indicative of the real price. By comparison, mainland Europe (Not the UK and Norway) has a much smaller gas market, with minimal native gas supplies, and fewer, and larger delivery points. In the one sense, it is also a valid price, but I expect the volumes transacted at that price on a daily basis is but a small fraction of the US volumes

From the graph, one might conclude the US and European prices are similar, so why do they need to import LNG? Well without LNG, that gas price goes off the chart.

 I asked Google, "What is the delivered cost of LNG to Europe?"

(Again, directionally, the answer and information is within reason.)

"AI Overview

The delivered cost of LNG to Europe in late 2024/early 2025 typically ranges from $10–$15/MMBTU, but varies significantly with market conditions, adding liquefaction, shipping, and regasification costs to the base gas price (like U.S. Henry Hub).

Factors like high Henry Hub prices, increased demand, and freight rates pushed delivered prices up in late 2024, while cooler weather and ample storage can lower them, with prices sometimes hovering around 33–50 €/MWh (equivalent to $10–$15/MMBTU) at the Dutch TTF hub. 

Cost Breakdown:
Base Gas (e.g., U.S. Henry Hub): ~$3–4/MMBTU (in early 2025 estimates).
Liquefaction: ~$2–$3.50/MMBTU (fees for turning gas into LNG).
Shipping (Freight): Highly variable, $1–$3/MMBTU or more, depending heavily on distance and tanker demand.
Regasification: ~$0.50–$1/MMBTU (cost to turn LNG back into gas in Europe). 
Key Price Drivers:
Henry Hub Price: The cost of gas at the source (US).
Shipping Demand: Higher demand (like surges in winter) increases freight costs, widening the gap between source and delivered prices.
European Storage Levels: Low storage levels and cold weather drive up European spot prices (TTF). 
Recent Trends (Late 2024/Early 2025):
Europe's high prices have attracted record U.S. LNG exports, even pushing prices above Asian markets.

While U.S. Henry Hub prices rose, European spot prices (TTF) recently saw lower levels in late 2024 due to milder weather, though cold snaps can quickly reverse this, increasing costs. 

In essence, it's a market driven by supply, demand, and transport economics, with U.S. LNG often costing significantly more in Europe than pre-2022 pipeline gas." 

So, somebody is paying $10-15/MMbtu (3-4x the US gas cost) for the European gas price to be the "same" as the US.

20 years ago, the US built LNG import terminals (at the beginning of the shale boom, which unlocked Appalachia gas). Some actually imported LNG. Most of them started up as LNG export terminals, without ever importing LNG. It wasn't as simple as switching two wires and reversing the polarity. It takes $ Billions of dollars, tons of paperwork, and a regulatory nightmare, all of which is at the whim of the current administration. The long haul gas pipelines from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, were bifurcated, with Appalachia gas supplying both the Northeast US demand and a new Gulf Coast LNG export market.

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Posted
Just now, PTINS said:

I'm not that familiar with the European gas market (I don't have tome to go down that rabbit hole), so i'm not exactly sure what gas price is shown in the graph. 

But my first guess is that is an apples and boxcars comparison.

Below is a similar plot of US gas prices, with no indication of the source of the data. Directionally, it appears to be valid information, but the entities that have the trading data also tend to have an agenda, so beware. 

image.png.5c64339920f7d6fd2611b46e8786e68b.png

If you over lay the two plots, they are similar, which one might conclude that US and European prices are the same.

In one sense they are, but in reality, they are very different. The US has 100's (1,000's) of supply points and 1,000's of delivery points, with 1000's of transactions reflected in the gas spot market price at a specific point in time. In the US, the paper price is indicative of the real price. By comparison, mainland Europe (Not the UK and Norway) has a much smaller gas market, with minimal native gas supplies, and fewer, and larger delivery points. In the one sense, it is also a valid price, but I expect the volumes transacted at that price on a daily basis is but a small fraction of the US volumes

From the graph, one might conclude the US and European prices are similar, so why do they need to import LNG? Well without LNG, that gas price goes off the chart.

 I asked Google, "What is the delivered cost of LNG to Europe?"

(Again, directionally, the answer and information is within reason.)

"AI Overview

The delivered cost of LNG to Europe in late 2024/early 2025 typically ranges from $10–$15/MMBTU, but varies significantly with market conditions, adding liquefaction, shipping, and regasification costs to the base gas price (like U.S. Henry Hub).

Factors like high Henry Hub prices, increased demand, and freight rates pushed delivered prices up in late 2024, while cooler weather and ample storage can lower them, with prices sometimes hovering around 33–50 €/MWh (equivalent to $10–$15/MMBTU) at the Dutch TTF hub. 

Cost Breakdown:
Base Gas (e.g., U.S. Henry Hub): ~$3–4/MMBTU (in early 2025 estimates).
Liquefaction: ~$2–$3.50/MMBTU (fees for turning gas into LNG).
Shipping (Freight): Highly variable, $1–$3/MMBTU or more, depending heavily on distance and tanker demand.
Regasification: ~$0.50–$1/MMBTU (cost to turn LNG back into gas in Europe). 
Key Price Drivers:
Henry Hub Price: The cost of gas at the source (US).
Shipping Demand: Higher demand (like surges in winter) increases freight costs, widening the gap between source and delivered prices.
European Storage Levels: Low storage levels and cold weather drive up European spot prices (TTF). 
Recent Trends (Late 2024/Early 2025):
Europe's high prices have attracted record U.S. LNG exports, even pushing prices above Asian markets.

While U.S. Henry Hub prices rose, European spot prices (TTF) recently saw lower levels in late 2024 due to milder weather, though cold snaps can quickly reverse this, increasing costs. 

In essence, it's a market driven by supply, demand, and transport economics, with U.S. LNG often costing significantly more in Europe than pre-2022 pipeline gas." 

So, somebody is paying $10-15/MMbtu (3-4x the US gas cost) for the European gas price to be the "same" as the US.

20 years ago, the US built LNG import terminals (at the beginning of the shale boom, which unlocked Appalachia gas). Some actually imported LNG. Most of them started up as LNG export terminals, without ever importing LNG. It wasn't as simple as switching two wires and reversing the polarity. It takes $ Billions of dollars, tons of paperwork, and a regulatory nightmare, all of which is at the whim of the current administration. The long haul gas pipelines from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, were bifurcated, with Appalachia gas supplying both the Northeast US demand and a new Gulf Coast LNG export market.

I'm responding to myself, but I didn't want to pollute my first response.  This is borderline CR, but still related to the topic.

TLDR

The US has tremendous natural gas resources, and Biden kicked the LNG industry (and O&G) in the 'nads. Trump reversed that mindset, 100%, throwing gasoline on the fire. 

Gulp. Trump was right. I can't say it.

The US should produce gas, make LNG and export it, and Europe is much closer and easier than SE Asia.

But it will impact domestic gas prices. The next time Texas freezes for a week, who gets the little bit of gas still being produced? The sparks fly when the reality of the present day market gets in the face of long term contracts, and $$$. The answer is not binary, and it it not finished when the papers are signed. In is a huge, living, constantly changing beast, at it needs to be treated as such.

DJT may be a self anointed real estate mogul, but I think he and his 2 minute attention span would get his ass handed to him trading energy commodities. To be fair, I think that also applies to most of our former Presidents.  I will never understand the pushback on putting energy professionals in the Department of Energy. 

What happens with the next US administration? Back to the other extreme?

Europe is replacing Russian natural gas with imported LNG, from the US, and other places.

Europe will be dependent on the kind hand offered by the US.

Kind'a like NATO was. How's that's working out for them?

While looking for Russian refinery data, I saw some verbiage that Russia now flares more gas than any other country. It used to be between Iran and the US. 

Russia I'm not sure if that includes Nordstream, but the number was close to the pipeline capacity, ~ 3-4 BCF/day, or ~ 1 or 2 LNG plants.

When all is said and done, Russia has the gas production and reserves and the pipelines assets are already in place, and Russia SHOULD still be the cheapest source of gas for Europe. But Russia should never be the only source.

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Posted (edited)

A nice harbinger... Who's interested in a skyscraper in Moscow for $2.4 billion?? Brief read.

Exclusive: Russia orders Russian Railways to sell $2.4 billion Moscow Towers to pay debts, three sources say

Spoiler

MOSCOW, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Russia's government has ordered Russian Railways to sell a 62-floor central Moscow skyscraper to help the railway monopoly pay off some of its $50 billion debt, three sources told Reuters.
The government is discussing ways to prop up Russia's biggest commercial employer, Reuters reported last month.
Sign up here.
State-owned Russian Railways, which employs about 700,000 people, has suffered a fall in revenues amid a sharp slowdown in Russia's war economy while debt costs have soared, driven by the highest interest rates in two decades.
The option of selling the gleaming "Moscow Towers", part of the Manhattan-style "Moscow City", was discussed at a government meeting last week, a source close to the talks told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.
A decision was made that Russian Railways should sell the skyscraper to pay part of its debt and to avoid significant cargo transportation price hikes, three sources told Reuters.
One of them said Russian Railways was instructed to sell the building for not less than the 2024 purchase price, which Russian newspapers Kommersant, Vedomosti and RBC reported to be 193.1 billion roubles ($2.42 billion).
Russian Railways and the government did not respond to requests for comment.
A sale could help cut some of Russian Railway's debt if it can find a buyer amid a significant slowdown in Russia's economy which is due to grow 1.0% this year, down from 4.3% in 2024.
No decision has been made on other measures discussed earlier, including rising cargo transportation prices, debt restructuring, state subsidies and reducing or postponing tax payments, one of the sources said.
An option to convert part of the bank debt into shares is still on the table, the source added.
Russian Railways, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank must discuss the possibility of the conversion for up to three years with the buyback option under financial guarantees provided by the Ministry of Finance, the source said.
Andrei Kostin, CEO of Russian Railways' largest lender VTB told Reuters that creditors rejected a proposal to convert 400 billion roubles of debt into shares.
Moscow City is a cluster of skyscrapers on the banks of the Moskva River which is home to major Russian companies including VTB Bank, as well as government ministries.
Russian Railways had planned to move its central office to the skyscraper and to cover the purchase price by selling other office real estate in Moscow, but that never happened.
($1 = 79.8000 roubles)
Reporting by Gleb Stolyarov and Darya Korsunskaya; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Alexander Smith
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

https://archive.is/w0TNu 

Edited by KYHorn
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Posted
2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

A nice harbinger... Who's interested in a skyscraper in Moscow for $2.4 billion?? Brief read.

Exclusive: Russia orders Russian Railways to sell $2.4 billion Moscow Towers to pay debts, three sources say

  Hide contents

MOSCOW, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Russia's government has ordered Russian Railways to sell a 62-floor central Moscow skyscraper to help the railway monopoly pay off some of its $50 billion debt, three sources told Reuters.
The government is discussing ways to prop up Russia's biggest commercial employer, Reuters reported last month.
Sign up here.
State-owned Russian Railways, which employs about 700,000 people, has suffered a fall in revenues amid a sharp slowdown in Russia's war economy while debt costs have soared, driven by the highest interest rates in two decades.
The option of selling the gleaming "Moscow Towers", part of the Manhattan-style "Moscow City", was discussed at a government meeting last week, a source close to the talks told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.
A decision was made that Russian Railways should sell the skyscraper to pay part of its debt and to avoid significant cargo transportation price hikes, three sources told Reuters.
One of them said Russian Railways was instructed to sell the building for not less than the 2024 purchase price, which Russian newspapers Kommersant, Vedomosti and RBC reported to be 193.1 billion roubles ($2.42 billion).
Russian Railways and the government did not respond to requests for comment.
A sale could help cut some of Russian Railway's debt if it can find a buyer amid a significant slowdown in Russia's economy which is due to grow 1.0% this year, down from 4.3% in 2024.
No decision has been made on other measures discussed earlier, including rising cargo transportation prices, debt restructuring, state subsidies and reducing or postponing tax payments, one of the sources said.
An option to convert part of the bank debt into shares is still on the table, the source added.
Russian Railways, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank must discuss the possibility of the conversion for up to three years with the buyback option under financial guarantees provided by the Ministry of Finance, the source said.
Andrei Kostin, CEO of Russian Railways' largest lender VTB told Reuters that creditors rejected a proposal to convert 400 billion roubles of debt into shares.
Moscow City is a cluster of skyscrapers on the banks of the Moskva River which is home to major Russian companies including VTB Bank, as well as government ministries.
Russian Railways had planned to move its central office to the skyscraper and to cover the purchase price by selling other office real estate in Moscow, but that never happened.
($1 = 79.8000 roubles)
Reporting by Gleb Stolyarov and Darya Korsunskaya; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Alexander Smith
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

https://archive.is/w0TNu 

50 billion > 2 billion.  That’s like being six months behind on your monthly McMansion mortgage payments, and your bank demands that you sell your mountain bike to reduce the debt. 

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Posted
49 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

50 billion > 2 billion.  That’s like being six months behind on your monthly McMansion mortgage payments, and your bank demands that you sell your mountain bike to reduce the debt. 

So with that kind of debt, when does the machine just stop?  Like collapse under the weight of that debt?  At some point, people aren't getting paid and quit taking IOUs, right?

 

Posted

EU leaders agree on 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine after a plan to use Russian assets unravels

Quote

European Union leaders agreed on Friday to provide a massive interest-free loan to Ukraine to meet its military and economic needs for the next two years, but they failed to bridge differences with Belgium that would have allowed them to use frozen Russian assets to raise the funds.

The plan had been to use some of the 210 billion euros ($246 billion) worth of Russian assets that are frozen in Europe, mostly in Belgium. The leaders worked deep into Thursday night to reassure Belgium that they would protect it from any Russian retaliation if it backed the “reparations loan” plan but in the end the leaders did not use that option, but as the talks bogged down the leaders eventually opted to borrow the money on capital markets.

Fucking Belgium, c'mon guys.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:


Your grandparents are from the 1840s?

Yeah. WTH?  Why aren’t they younger - like my grandparents.  They weren’t born until the 1880s. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Parliament said:

I am 1/4 Belgian (from back in the 1840's)  and I hereby renounce my Belgian heritage.

That is honestly a really weird way to put this.  Belgium wasn't a country until 1830.  And even after 1830, it's hard to say that there was a coherent Belgian national identity.  That didn't really come until World War I; but even now I know plenty of people would dispute that there can be a national identity in a country that low-key shouldn't really be a country.

So the real question is this: are you a quarter Flemish or a quarter Walloon?  This is an important question, because it determines whether I quarter-hate you.

 

 

By the way--I kinda have the same conundruum.  My grandmother would tell me that I was a quarter Czechoslovak--probably because it was easier to explain to a kid when Czechoslovakia was the political entity that had sovereignty over the village whence her grandparents came.  But ummm--no.  We're Czech.  And if you want to get more accurate, we're Moravian.

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Belgium still isn't a country.

I will die on that hill.

 

8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

History seems to indicate that Belgium only exists to be a route for Germany to invade France.

Agreed. It's Benelux with the capital seat in Amsterdam. No need for provincial areas trying to claim sovereignty. 

Posted
12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think it's deeper than just "The US is pressuring Belguim" @Schulz2.0.

Here is a global finance analysis I saw:

Quote

 

But other EU leaders are wary of issuing a potential blank cheque — eg, if Putin retaliates by seizing private Belgian assets in Russia, that should just be a problem for those who ignored the warnings about staying in Russia.

Meanwhile, opponents (including Italy) have variously raised other issues including…

Reputational: The world stashes its cash in Europe on faith European leaders won’t seize your assets

Legal: Fitch just placed Belgium’s Euroclear depository on negative watch, citing low but “potentially increased liquidity and legal risks” 

Historical: Europe didn’t even do ~this with German assets during WWII (though post-war reparations largely comprised in-kind confiscation of German assets)

Practical: Belgium’s De Wever has likened it to eating the goose that lays the golden eggs (a reference to the $5-6B in annual interest these frozen assets already generate for Ukraine’s self-defence)

Precedent: If world powers keep yoinking assets, where does this end? And…

Retribution: Euroclear executives have already had to hire bodyguards amid intimidation from the Kremlin, which continues to make vague threats.

 

 

Posted

https://www.threads.com/@united24.media/post/DSc-2vXDNv-?xmt=AQF0w46n9WENF60bCBgphifo1ngJves71Ub0EeoRplVIeg

Nomma Zarubina, a Russian national accused of spying for Moscow, thought she could get away with it—until a series of drunken, threatening texts to an FBI agent blew her cover. From cozy selfies with Russian officials to drunken rants, Zarubina’s reckless behavior led her straight into federal custody. Here’s how a spy’s late-night texting spree turned her espionage mission into a self-inflicted disaster.
Read the full story and more at united24media.com. Link in bio.
Author: daly_operation

 

^I mean we already knew this, because Zelensky went there in person, but it's funny they filmed it in Tavilzhanka instead. General Kuzovkev, the commander of the Western group, who lied saying he captured it was "found dead by his wife." Maybe Putin didn't like being taken for the fool he is. 

 

 

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Posted
Quote

Russian sources released a video showing a soldier walking in a town, claiming it was Kupiansk. There was one problem. The video was recorded in Tavilzhanka.

 

In the Russian soldier's defense, he probably didn't know where the fuck he was. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

 

Agreed. It's Benelux with the capital seat in Amsterdam. No need for provincial areas trying to claim sovereignty. 

Ok--and as someone who is another quarter Luxembourger (no shit--my maternal grandfather's four grandparents all emigrated together from Luxembourg in the mid-19th Century) . . . fuck you!  Luxembourg doesn't have just a whole lot in common with those Dutch herring-eaters.  

Now if you want to combine those three countries into a Greater Luxembourg with its capital at Luxembourg--a "Grousslëbuergesche Räich," if you will--perhaps we can talk about that.

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