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Goo Punch

Texas' KenPom ratings

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Here we can track the ebbs and flows of the team through the eyes of the computers. Through one game:

Rank: 31

AdjO: 55

AdjD: 19

AdjT: 316

Other Notables:

Defensively we rank 3rd in the country in effective FG%, 3rd in 3P% defense, and 6th in non-steal TO%

 

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I'll be curious how well our actual results line up with KenPom this year. Need at least 10 games before I'll start trusting any statistical trends, but if we start losing in spite of good numbers, I for one will start gettin' a little antsy.

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Kinda interesting to look at the conference as a whole. No easy games starting in January. 

Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO   AdjD   AdjT   Luck   AdjEM   OppO   OppD   AdjEM  
10 Kansas B12 0-1 21.45 110 19 88.6 12 74.5 33 0 1 26.79 5 111.6 17 84.8 2 26.79 5
11 Baylor B12 Jan-00 21.01 110 18 89.4 17 70.6 285 0 1 -13.15 141 94.6 132 107.7 153 -13.15 135
15 Texas Tech B12 Jan-00 20.13 109 27 88.9 13 70.9 270 0 1 -12.19 138 95.9 121 108.1 157 -12.19 132
22 Oklahoma B12 Jan-00 17.92 107 50 89.3 16 74.4 36 0 1 -3.25 96 99.7 90 103 108 -3.25 90
31 Texas B12 Jan-00 17.08 107 55 90 19 70 316 0 1 -10.81 133 92.9 142 103.8 116 -10.81 127
39 Oklahoma St. B12 0-0 15.91 109 34 92.7 46 71.4 229 0 1 -99 177 0 177 200 177 -99 171
46 TCU B12 0-0 14.82 106 65 91.5 35 72.3 155 0 1 -99 177 0 177 200 177 -99 171
49 Iowa St. B12 Jan-00 14.57 109 29 94.3 68 73.5 83 0 1 -32.26 176 81.8 175 114.1 176 -32.26 170
52 Kansas St. B12 Jan-00 14.35 103 111 88.6 10 69 342 0 1 -5.64 107 99.4 94 105 128 -5.64 101
58 West Virginia B12 0-0 13.08 107 53 94 62 74.2 46 0 1 -99 177 0 177 200 177 -99 171

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It's pretty crazy how the conference has become a basketball league in the last 6-7 years. In football the Big XII always has a couple a really good teams but no real title contenders and some shitty bottom dwellers. Meanwhile in basketball it's been the toughest league in America for years now. 

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4 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

I'll be curious how well our actual results line up with KenPom this year. Need at least 10 games before I'll start trusting any statistical trends, but if we start losing in spite of good numbers, I for one will start gettin' a little antsy.

Until you're typically into January, and playing conference rivals Ken pom just doesn't mean a whole lot IMO.

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Through two games (2-0)

Rank: 21
AdjO: 37
AdjD: 22
AdjT: 324 (which is actually a good thing imo as long as the other rankings stay high)

Other notables:

Effective FG% Defense: 32
2P% Defense: 39
Non-Steal TO%: 37

2P FG%: 26
FT%: 37 (shooting 81% as a team)
Effective FG%: 49

It's only two games, but it's a really nice start.


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Edited by Goo Punch

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btw- Purdue is currently still ranked #9 in KenPom, 8th nationally in AdjO, and 15th in AdjD. Their slow tempo played into our hands, but the computers really like Purdue so far. that's a good early season road win.


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6 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

okie dokie, and why do you think that? 

From what I recall, it was agreed that KenPom overrates Texas by mischaracterzing as bad “luck” Shaka’s deficiencies as a coach. 

Edited by Fozzz

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5 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

After 3 games (3-0)

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It’s still early so small sample size, but this is pretty much what we saw last night. We take way too many 3s, while being a poor 3 point shooting team, instead of driving, so we don’t shoot nearly enough free throws. 
 

We could be really good if we’d stop settling for bad 3s so much on offense. 

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14 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

It’s still early so small sample size, but this is pretty much what we saw last night. We take way too many 3s, while being a poor 3 point shooting team, instead of driving, so we don’t shoot nearly enough free throws. 
 

We could be really good if we’d stop settling for bad 3s so much on offense. 

Right? I'm super glad our freshman are very confident shooters, but they suck from behind the arc.  My back of the napkin math (which usually sucks as bad as our 3P%):

Ramey - 1/8
Coleman - 6/9
Febres - 6/17
Cunningham - 0/4
Jones - 6/13
Williams - 1/4
Baker - 0/7
Hepa - 0/3
Hamm - 0/3
Liddell - 2/4

Febres is always going to jack them up.  I don't think he's much more than that.  Coleman takes (and makes) very good threes, same as Jones.  Why we continue to allow Baker playing time to go 0/7 baffles me.  You are 6'11 bro, get to the rim. 

Ramey's struggles can't continue all season, I hope.  He was 38.6% from three last year.  Coleman is on pace to be a better shooter, Jase looks about his average. Jones looks like 2017-18 Andrew so far from three. 

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I'm liking what I'm seeing in Ramey, Liddell, AJ, and Coleman.  I think Sims can do what he needs to in spurts.  He's best when he is not having plays called for him and is reacting rather than thinking what's he is supposed to be doing.

I''d like to see Cunninham, Williams, and Kai Jones get a real look in Febres' spot.  Febres should not be on the court for more than 20 ish mins a game currently.

Hepa and Baker need to use their size.  If nothing else, post up and bang on a defender and pass it out to someone else when the defense collapses.

I'd like to see more interior and baseline screening just to mix up the predictability a bit.

Our 4 guard line-up helped in this past game with Ramey being able to muscle a small guy on the drives.  It's going to kill us when we play a team with a couple decent guys over 6'8".  They'll simply pull Sims or Hamm out on defense and have some kid muscling Febres and AJ in the paint all day.

The number of threes and early shot clock 3's need to be significantly reduced.  Our rebounding needs to improve (and it won't if we have Febres, AJ, and/or Ramey defending forwards in the paint).   These two things are my biggest concerns.

Baker (and his coaches) are still trying to figure out what he is.  He needs to get his ass inside the 3 point line and throw his size around, even if he has no intention to shoot when he gets the ball.  Kai Jones (unless he's redshirting) and Hamm need more time.  Febres needs less time... He's clearly a coach favorite, but he's been soft on defense and lazy in his offense.  He needs to add a pump fake and drive to his game.

Our defense looks markedly better this year, but teams will figure out quickly how to get favorable match-ups in the paint if we insist on line-ups where Febres and AJ get stuck defending tall forwards.  We sucked defending simple pick and rolls last year, and look much better overall at that so far.

If we can grind out wins in ugly games against conference teams like we did against Cal Baptist, we can certainly make the NCAA tourney.  In my opinion the coaches need to improve their in game line-up / substitution decisions and get more diverse on offense to do that.  It's only game 3.  Interesting to see how things evolve when we play G-town (after the Prairie View tune-up)

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54 minutes ago, Js1 said:
 

Right? I'm super glad our freshman are very confident shooters, but they suck from behind the arc.  My back of the napkin math (which usually sucks as bad as our 3P%):

Ramey - 1/8
Coleman - 6/9
Febres - 6/17
Cunningham - 0/4
Jones - 6/13
Williams - 1/4
Baker - 0/7
Hepa - 0/3
Hamm - 0/3
Liddell - 2/4

Febres is always going to jack them up.  I don't think he's much more than that.  Coleman takes (and makes) very good threes, same as Jones.  Why we continue to allow Baker playing time to go 0/7 baffles me.  You are 6'11 bro, get to the rim. 

Ramey's struggles can't continue all season, I hope.  He was 38.6% from three last year.  Coleman is on pace to be a better shooter, Jase looks about his average. Jones looks like 2017-18 Andrew so far from three. 

Can't echo what you said about Coleman and Jones enough.  They (along with Liddell) take quality, in rhythm 3s, that typically come off of good offense.  Jase on the other hand is another story. I don't even know if Jase' feet have been set for even half of the 3s he's taken.  He literally barely gets the ball in his hands before firing one up.  I honestly think Jase would have a similar % as Jones if he was taking the same types of quality shots. 

As for the bigs, I think they're problem (specifically Baker, Hepa, and maybe Cunningham) is they fire them up without even getting their blood flowing.  Hepa and Baker in particular need to slip a pick every now and then and get a sweat going before firing up a 3. The old adage about getting a few easy makes to build confidence would serve them well. Osetkowski's best 3pt shooting performances at UT all happened when he first got a few early makes inside or went to the line early. Their(Hepa & Baker) form and mechanics say they should be good shooters but Jesus, allow yourself to get into the rhythm of the game before launching. As for Cunningham, he has an extremely ugly shot,  but practice reports and his high school rep all say he's a good shooter so I'm not gonna put him in the category of Hamm and Sims who should never EVER fire up a 3, PERIOD. 

 

Edited by Catdaddyhorn

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