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Goo Punch

Texas' KenPom ratings

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Here we can track the ebbs and flows of the team through the eyes of the computers. Through one game:

Rank: 31

AdjO: 55

AdjD: 19

AdjT: 316

Other Notables:

Defensively we rank 3rd in the country in effective FG%, 3rd in 3P% defense, and 6th in non-steal TO%

 

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I'll be curious how well our actual results line up with KenPom this year. Need at least 10 games before I'll start trusting any statistical trends, but if we start losing in spite of good numbers, I for one will start gettin' a little antsy.

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Kinda interesting to look at the conference as a whole. No easy games starting in January. 

Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO   AdjD   AdjT   Luck   AdjEM   OppO   OppD   AdjEM  
10 Kansas B12 0-1 21.45 110 19 88.6 12 74.5 33 0 1 26.79 5 111.6 17 84.8 2 26.79 5
11 Baylor B12 Jan-00 21.01 110 18 89.4 17 70.6 285 0 1 -13.15 141 94.6 132 107.7 153 -13.15 135
15 Texas Tech B12 Jan-00 20.13 109 27 88.9 13 70.9 270 0 1 -12.19 138 95.9 121 108.1 157 -12.19 132
22 Oklahoma B12 Jan-00 17.92 107 50 89.3 16 74.4 36 0 1 -3.25 96 99.7 90 103 108 -3.25 90
31 Texas B12 Jan-00 17.08 107 55 90 19 70 316 0 1 -10.81 133 92.9 142 103.8 116 -10.81 127
39 Oklahoma St. B12 0-0 15.91 109 34 92.7 46 71.4 229 0 1 -99 177 0 177 200 177 -99 171
46 TCU B12 0-0 14.82 106 65 91.5 35 72.3 155 0 1 -99 177 0 177 200 177 -99 171
49 Iowa St. B12 Jan-00 14.57 109 29 94.3 68 73.5 83 0 1 -32.26 176 81.8 175 114.1 176 -32.26 170
52 Kansas St. B12 Jan-00 14.35 103 111 88.6 10 69 342 0 1 -5.64 107 99.4 94 105 128 -5.64 101
58 West Virginia B12 0-0 13.08 107 53 94 62 74.2 46 0 1 -99 177 0 177 200 177 -99 171

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It's pretty crazy how the conference has become a basketball league in the last 6-7 years. In football the Big XII always has a couple a really good teams but no real title contenders and some shitty bottom dwellers. Meanwhile in basketball it's been the toughest league in America for years now. 

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4 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

I'll be curious how well our actual results line up with KenPom this year. Need at least 10 games before I'll start trusting any statistical trends, but if we start losing in spite of good numbers, I for one will start gettin' a little antsy.

Until you're typically into January, and playing conference rivals Ken pom just doesn't mean a whole lot IMO.

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Through two games (2-0)

Rank: 21
AdjO: 37
AdjD: 22
AdjT: 324 (which is actually a good thing imo as long as the other rankings stay high)

Other notables:

Effective FG% Defense: 32
2P% Defense: 39
Non-Steal TO%: 37

2P FG%: 26
FT%: 37 (shooting 81% as a team)
Effective FG%: 49

It's only two games, but it's a really nice start.


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Edited by Goo Punch

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btw- Purdue is currently still ranked #9 in KenPom, 8th nationally in AdjO, and 15th in AdjD. Their slow tempo played into our hands, but the computers really like Purdue so far. that's a good early season road win.


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6 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

okie dokie, and why do you think that? 

From what I recall, it was agreed that KenPom overrates Texas by mischaracterzing as bad “luck” Shaka’s deficiencies as a coach. 

Edited by Fozzz

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5 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

After 3 games (3-0)

c50e9f831ea40964639478d33a9eff31.jpg


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It’s still early so small sample size, but this is pretty much what we saw last night. We take way too many 3s, while being a poor 3 point shooting team, instead of driving, so we don’t shoot nearly enough free throws. 
 

We could be really good if we’d stop settling for bad 3s so much on offense. 

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14 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

It’s still early so small sample size, but this is pretty much what we saw last night. We take way too many 3s, while being a poor 3 point shooting team, instead of driving, so we don’t shoot nearly enough free throws. 
 

We could be really good if we’d stop settling for bad 3s so much on offense. 

Right? I'm super glad our freshman are very confident shooters, but they suck from behind the arc.  My back of the napkin math (which usually sucks as bad as our 3P%):

Ramey - 1/8
Coleman - 6/9
Febres - 6/17
Cunningham - 0/4
Jones - 6/13
Williams - 1/4
Baker - 0/7
Hepa - 0/3
Hamm - 0/3
Liddell - 2/4

Febres is always going to jack them up.  I don't think he's much more than that.  Coleman takes (and makes) very good threes, same as Jones.  Why we continue to allow Baker playing time to go 0/7 baffles me.  You are 6'11 bro, get to the rim. 

Ramey's struggles can't continue all season, I hope.  He was 38.6% from three last year.  Coleman is on pace to be a better shooter, Jase looks about his average. Jones looks like 2017-18 Andrew so far from three. 

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I'm liking what I'm seeing in Ramey, Liddell, AJ, and Coleman.  I think Sims can do what he needs to in spurts.  He's best when he is not having plays called for him and is reacting rather than thinking what's he is supposed to be doing.

I''d like to see Cunninham, Williams, and Kai Jones get a real look in Febres' spot.  Febres should not be on the court for more than 20 ish mins a game currently.

Hepa and Baker need to use their size.  If nothing else, post up and bang on a defender and pass it out to someone else when the defense collapses.

I'd like to see more interior and baseline screening just to mix up the predictability a bit.

Our 4 guard line-up helped in this past game with Ramey being able to muscle a small guy on the drives.  It's going to kill us when we play a team with a couple decent guys over 6'8".  They'll simply pull Sims or Hamm out on defense and have some kid muscling Febres and AJ in the paint all day.

The number of threes and early shot clock 3's need to be significantly reduced.  Our rebounding needs to improve (and it won't if we have Febres, AJ, and/or Ramey defending forwards in the paint).   These two things are my biggest concerns.

Baker (and his coaches) are still trying to figure out what he is.  He needs to get his ass inside the 3 point line and throw his size around, even if he has no intention to shoot when he gets the ball.  Kai Jones (unless he's redshirting) and Hamm need more time.  Febres needs less time... He's clearly a coach favorite, but he's been soft on defense and lazy in his offense.  He needs to add a pump fake and drive to his game.

Our defense looks markedly better this year, but teams will figure out quickly how to get favorable match-ups in the paint if we insist on line-ups where Febres and AJ get stuck defending tall forwards.  We sucked defending simple pick and rolls last year, and look much better overall at that so far.

If we can grind out wins in ugly games against conference teams like we did against Cal Baptist, we can certainly make the NCAA tourney.  In my opinion the coaches need to improve their in game line-up / substitution decisions and get more diverse on offense to do that.  It's only game 3.  Interesting to see how things evolve when we play G-town (after the Prairie View tune-up)

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54 minutes ago, Js1 said:
 

Right? I'm super glad our freshman are very confident shooters, but they suck from behind the arc.  My back of the napkin math (which usually sucks as bad as our 3P%):

Ramey - 1/8
Coleman - 6/9
Febres - 6/17
Cunningham - 0/4
Jones - 6/13
Williams - 1/4
Baker - 0/7
Hepa - 0/3
Hamm - 0/3
Liddell - 2/4

Febres is always going to jack them up.  I don't think he's much more than that.  Coleman takes (and makes) very good threes, same as Jones.  Why we continue to allow Baker playing time to go 0/7 baffles me.  You are 6'11 bro, get to the rim. 

Ramey's struggles can't continue all season, I hope.  He was 38.6% from three last year.  Coleman is on pace to be a better shooter, Jase looks about his average. Jones looks like 2017-18 Andrew so far from three. 

Can't echo what you said about Coleman and Jones enough.  They (along with Liddell) take quality, in rhythm 3s, that typically come off of good offense.  Jase on the other hand is another story. I don't even know if Jase' feet have been set for even half of the 3s he's taken.  He literally barely gets the ball in his hands before firing one up.  I honestly think Jase would have a similar % as Jones if he was taking the same types of quality shots. 

As for the bigs, I think they're problem (specifically Baker, Hepa, and maybe Cunningham) is they fire them up without even getting their blood flowing.  Hepa and Baker in particular need to slip a pick every now and then and get a sweat going before firing up a 3. The old adage about getting a few easy makes to build confidence would serve them well. Osetkowski's best 3pt shooting performances at UT all happened when he first got a few early makes inside or went to the line early. Their(Hepa & Baker) form and mechanics say they should be good shooters but Jesus, allow yourself to get into the rhythm of the game before launching. As for Cunningham, he has an extremely ugly shot,  but practice reports and his high school rep all say he's a good shooter so I'm not gonna put him in the category of Hamm and Sims who should never EVER fire up a 3, PERIOD. 

 

Edited by Catdaddyhorn

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On 11/13/2019 at 10:50 AM, Huckleberry said:

Whole damn conference is #56 or higher. No easy games in this basketball league.

Top. To. Bottom.

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Somebody walk me through Donovan Williams and his upside.  To me he looks to have a real burst in his game, and it feels like he could be a major threat.  He really stood out in his time on the court.  Good height and length for his position and a strong nose for the basket.  Am I seeing things?

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45 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Somebody walk me through Donovan Williams and his upside.  To me he looks to have a real burst in his game, and it feels like he could be a major threat.  He really stood out in his time on the court.  Good height and length for his position and a strong nose for the basket.  Am I seeing things?

Personally, I like Williams getting a lot more of Febres' minutes, until the later shows more movement and shot-clock / situation / match-up iq on the offensive end. Williams has shown good energy, the willingness to drive the lane, and he can even hit a 3 pointer.  

Baker needs some serious coaching about the fact he's a giant and needs to post up, if for no other reason than make the defenders work and stay honest.

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Seems to me that Baker needs to be closer in when he receives the ball at the top of the key.  He is way out there and it makes a yuge difference in percentage the further out you are.  Give him time, and he needs to be practicing on his own with an assistant coach on that particular shot a thousand times a week.(or multi-hundreds at least)

Also, like the comments concerning Febres up thread, both he and Baker could take .5 seconds more in the time that they catch to the time they release.  Boddicker was a little fast early in his career as well.  Once he learned to get in the zone, a zen zone, he became money from 3.  Just an ever so slight timing difference between silky smooth money catch and release and herky jerky brick maker.

Baker sets good picks, and seems to play decent defense with some nice rebounding, hustle.

(I have only seen last 3/4 of purdue and all of the Cali game)

.

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some more stats on our team, stats which look eerily similar (and equally awful) to our previous seasons under shaka:

53bfa0031c108744a49dc7149933e826.jpg

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6e0ecdce68042f7c4cd99f6ddf3a8b38.jpg


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The calendar hasn't turned to December and we have already plummeted to #48 in KenPom's rankings. Pathetic.

63cf171a964c977c11aefdfd128754e7.jpg


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3 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

The calendar hasn't turned to December and we have already plummeted to #48 in KenPom's rankings. Pathetic.

63cf171a964c977c11aefdfd128754e7.jpg


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It's become comical.  The games look like a meals on wheels convention.  So many blue hairs in the stands with nothing better to do.

Edited by 2300 Nueces

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Telling, really bad stats for this team include FTs per game, 3 point shot percentage, and rebounding margin.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that taking a missing a ton of 3 point shots results in not getting to the FT line and reducing the odds of an offensive rebound.  We also tend to favor a line-up with 4 guards, which plays into more 3 point heaves and getting out rebounded on both ends of the court.

The scary thing is that our really bad rankings in those areas has been against pretty mediocre to outright poor competition.

Opponents in the Big-12 are going to encourage Shaka to play a small line-up and jack up rushed 3 pointers.  We need Bobby Knight level stressing to our players at this point that they are expected to drive into the paint at all costs to at least draw contact and get to the line, and only shoot a 3 if it's late in the shot clock and they are wide ass open.  We also need more Kai and less Febres.  Kai has show a lot of positives and Febres has been consistently poor in shot selection, shot percentage, and defense.  I think most of our other players have been up and down, so I don't have any real qualms about who starts.  Just give more minutes to whoever is playing well during each game.

I think the defense has been noticeable improved this year.  I'm not feeling the love for our offensive assistant coach yet.  The high screen with everyone standing at the 3 point line, with no variants, deception, or off-ball movement is high school stuff.  I wish we had a Brad Stevens, Billy Donovan, or Tony Bennett.    I dread another year where Lon Krueger, Jamie Dixon and Scott Drew look like Wooden against us or where Okie state, K-state, or West Virginia take games from us with duct-taped line-ups of clumsy 3 stars and jucos.

This team can easily make the NCAA tournament if they are coached up on getting interior shots and if they get over the small ball lineup and "be like Steph" infatuation. 

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Lon Krueger and Jamie Dixon ARE John Wooden relative to Shaka Smart.  We're in games because of raw talent.  I'm OK with that, for the most part -- it worked well for Mack Brown.  The infuriating thing is that it would take maybe 10% more effort to move the ball just a bit more and get to the line just a bit more, and our offense would skyrocket in relative rankings.  Would we be "good"?  No.  We'd be good enough for our defense to bail us out of those 3-4 games each year we need to win but seemingly can't.

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The most amazing thing about our Four Factors is that there are 5 teams in the country worse than we are at getting to the free throw line (FTA/FGA).

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10 hours ago, VinyVango said:

This team can easily make the NCAA tournament if

Shaka's 5th season and we're still talking about how we have the potential to be one of the 68 best teams in the country.  Good god.

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On 12/13/2019 at 11:12 PM, TexArcher said:

Shaka's 5th season and we're still talking about how we have the potential to be one of the 68 best teams in the country.  Good god.

Yep.  There is an unmistakable stench in the room... and the injuries, team youth, new system excuses are all way past their expiration dates.

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5 hours ago, VinyVango said:

Yep.  There is an unmistakable stench in the room... and the injuries, team youth, new system excuses are all way past their expiration dates.

Just under 2 weeks until this team has to strap on the big boy pants.  A 5th-6th place finish in the B12 won't cut it for me.  Gotta be better.

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1 hour ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Just under 2 weeks until this team has to strap on the big boy pants.  A 5th-6th place finish in the B12 won't cut it for me.  Gotta be better.

Well said.   The soft-serve pre-conference schedule has done what it was intended to as far as wins and losses, though it seems like a lot of valuable teaching moments, player development, and line-up/set play experimentation opportunities were ignored.  We are about to hit big-boy time when the opposing players will match-up to our players' physical abilities.  Then it will boil down heavily upon coaching.  No good excuses left for finishing behind Baylor and Tech and still maintaining the current coaching staff another year.  Shaka looks like he is going to ride the 3-point shot and heavy guard usage to his longhorn destiny this year.  He's been stubbornly resistant thru 10 games to work any meaningful low post options into the game plan or attempt to develop his front court players.  I am pessimistic of our odds against well coached teams who use our predictability against us.  It's going to take some good shooting games from the guards to fight for a top 3 finish in conference.

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Kenpom ranks us as the 7th best team in the B12.  If we finish 7th and make the tournament, will we still fire SS?  I bet we don't and the mediocrity of Texas athletics will continue.

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1 hour ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Kenpom ranks us as the 7th best team in the B12.  If we finish 7th and make the tournament, will we still fire SS?  I bet we don't and the mediocrity of Texas athletics will continue.

Is your life this shitty or is this just the way you post on internet message boards?  You almost make satya and 6thstreet seem like optimists.

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3 hours ago, justhookit said:

Is your life this shitty or is this just the way you post on internet message boards?  You almost make satya and 6thstreet seem like optimists.

it's the people who make posts like this one who seem to have shitty lives. why so reactive to such a benign post? i frankly can't believe how many people around here still act this way despite how clearly dead our program is. anyone who cares about the program knows Shaka's got to go, yet we get constantly "fan shamed" if we aren't just blindly happy with the W/L record. that's crap. and so is the lashing out about how miserable the rest of us must be to not be jizzing ourselves over Shaka Smart's latest sub-.500 team. come on. 

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The really funny part to me is how all it would take to flip the narrative on its head is just a slight improvement in the end game in conference play.

Shaka consistently underperforms KenPom because his Texas teams haven't closed even halfway well. Change that, and he could outperform the computers.

Likely? Hell, naw. But conceivable. And if it doesn't happen, I think a very long February will lead to a March regime change.

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i don't even see it as conceivable at this point. it's been the same thing for the last 3.5 years now. his only respectable team was with players he didn't choose and they went 0-fer in the postseason (0-2 as favorites in both tournaments). Shaka is what he is. It's harder to accept because it's more abstract when it's a coach than when it's an athlete, but in the same way that Brock Cunningham is never going to be an All Big XII player, Shaka Smart is never going to perform well at Texas. It's above his level. 

Edited by Goo Punch

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also, here's a pic that really drives home why i can't even imagine a successful conference season for Texas:

9758614d4341f1844d63bae0a6075e0c.jpg

40% of our points have come from threes, while an astounding (in a bad way) 13% have come from FTs. And that was against an exceptionally weak non-con schedule. The coaches in this league all outclass Shaka and have long had him figured out. On nights when we don't shoot well we will lose to anybody. Shoot well and we will beat a top 5 KU team in Austin. That's the Shaka Smart way. And this year is no different. Barring a truly unforeseen improvement in the stats above, this will be a dreary conference season, and will almost surely end Shaka's time as HC of this team. That's really the long and short of it. I just hope it all ends with Billy Donovan in Austin.


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