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2019 Surly bowl pick em

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7 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Pretty sure this dude shows up every year on this thread trying to tell people how they played this wrong or how their strategy sucks. He also has never won himself and managed to finish 42nd out of 45 this year. 

What year did you finish in the top 2? And being aggressive and finishing 42nd is objectively better than playing it safe and finish 11th. Just like a poker tourney. 

Edited by Irieguy

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4 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

2011/12 won the whole thing

That long ago? What was there 11 entries? I have a top 2 in the last 3 years. Congrats on playing it conservative this year and getting 17th. What does that pay?

Edited by Irieguy

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5 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

That long ago? What was there 11 entries? I have a top 2 in the last 3 years. Congrats on playing it conservative this year and getting 17th. What does that pay?

Also got 2nd or 3rd in 2014, whatever paid 370 that year. Anyways, that's not the point. I'm not on here telling other people how to play, especially if they're in the 99th percentile and I'm in the 12th.

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13 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Also got 2nd or 3rd in 2014, whatever paid 370 that year. Anyways, that's not the point. I'm not on here telling other people how to play, especially if they're in the 99th percentile and I'm in the 12th.

Of course not. The person who finishes in 67 percentile like you did should never give advice. Just like a poker tourney, finishing in the middle of the pack is worse than finishing last. It means you were too conservative. The person who finished in 12 percentile played to win and has a unique perspective. I don’t give advice on who I think will win a game. I give advice on strategy(play aggressive). And I’m right. 

Edited by Irieguy

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My bad, you were in the 16th percentile. You were 13th percentile last year. Congrats man, you're getting better. That poker strategy is paying off. 

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Northloop finished 74th percentile in 2018 and 67th percentile in 2019. That’s pathetic. 
 

I finished 99th percentile in 2016, 14th percentile in 2018 and 12th percentile in 2019. In 2020 I will finish 99th percentile or 12th percentile. I will give myself a chance to win. Northloop will finish 70th and have no chance of winning a big pool. 

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1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

My bad, you were in the 16th percentile. You were 13th percentile last year. Congrats man, you're getting better. That poker strategy is paying off. 

You will never win by playing conservative in a large pool of good pickers. You have to take risks. 67th percentile and 12th percentile pay the same. Daniel Negreanu never finishes in the middle of a poker tourney. He makes the final table or he busts early taking risks.

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But seriously NorthLoop I wish you luck in future bets even though you criticized me. Keep up your same conservative strategy and pick all #1 seeds in your March Madness pool and then brag when you finish slightly above average. That’s way more important than having a unique entry and potentially finishing at the bottom. 👊

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Man I was looking at some of the old threads on this and looks like BigO has finished in the money and/or won several times. I guess maybe his strategy seems to work for him. Maybe the guy who got 2nd place once 4 years ago shouldn't be lecturing him. Since we're doing poker analogies, it's kinda like Moneymaker lecturing Phil Ivey because Moneymaker had one lucky run. 

 

BTW this isn't the first time that irieguy has done this and been called out. He used to post as westpointhorn. 

Irie/WPH loses a 100 bet to brew

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I'm not sure whether my strategy was aggressive, conservative, or if I even had a strategy.  I do know my picks sucked, or maybe my picks were good and the teams I picked just didn't want to be there.

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Northloop, you are so confused. There is natural talent and strategy. Moneymaker, Ivey and every above average player agree on basic strategy. Ivey just has a lot more talent at reading players and individual hands. 
Applied to this contest, talent is knowing who will win individual games. Strategy is allocating points and knowing when to take risks. BigO, Skipper and others have more talent than me at picking individual games. But we all use the same aggressive strategy(except BigO one time). When we are “behind” we make aggressive picks. 
You picked like 2 underdogs. That’s not aggressive enough. You will almost never win that way. I can’t tell you what underdogs to pick, but you need to pick some underdogs. Especially since you can adjust mid contest. When you are behind. There is no debating that is the best strategy. 
 

BTW, Ivey and others pay people that you have never heard of thousands of dollars for technical advice. A lot of those advisors barely play poker but are math and strategy experts. It doesn’t matter that they aren’t great players, they are great at determining the optimal poker tournament strategies. 

Edited by Irieguy

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theres no fucking strategy other than tossing hail marys to make up points to get back in it. if you hit it IE 30+ on Minnesota beating Auburn with everybody else having 30+ on Auburn its a 60+ point swing/made up points.

 

Nobody can fucking strategize Western Michigan fucking up some final drive to win just to lose in OT. whole other bunch of fuck ups that can go against you that you cant think up.

If theres some secret to know who to bet big on and when, Im all ears, because we all know BigO totally knew he was going to pick 25-41 correctly hahaha

 

Edited by MNLonghornFUKM

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2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

theres no fucking strategy other than tossing hail marys to make up points to get back in it. if you hit it IE 30+ on Minnesota beating Auburn with everybody else having 30+ on Auburn its a 60+ point swing/made up points.

 

Nobody can fucking strategize Western Michigan fucking up some final drive to win just to lose in OT. whole other bunch of fuck ups that can go against you that you cant think up.

If theres some secret to know who to bet big on and when, Im all ears, because we all know BigO totally knew he was going to pick 25-41 correctly hahaha

 

“Tossing Hail Marys to get back in it” is MORE strategy than NorthLoop did. And more strategy than a lot of pool participants did.  The next step is using a spreadsheet to track your expected finish and adjust accordingly before it’s too late. 

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What does how I did this year have anything to do with the fact that you have no business lecturing people in this thread who have consistently outplayed you AND have made way more money than you in this contest?

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25 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

What does how I did this year have anything to do with the fact that you have no business lecturing people in this thread who have consistently outplayed you AND have made way more money than you in this contest?

Glad you asked. I’m not criticizing you or anybody’s results - except your results to jab you a bit. I’m criticizing your strategy, which was conservative and horrible. And again, I concede that others are better at making picks and have won more money than me. But my strategy for assigning points and switching picks at the right time is very good. 
The key concept here is strategy NOT results. Your strategy is bad. So bad that you haven’t even tried to defend it. I’m all ears to hear what is great about your conservative strategy though. 

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I never said my strategy was great this year. I pretty much mailed it in this year. I'm also not on here talking shit about the way other people play.

There's only one person here doing that, and he does it on this thread year after year. And every year he loses his money to the people he's lecturing. (Hint....it's you.)

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28 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I never said my strategy was great this year. I pretty much mailed it in this year. I'm also not on here talking shit about the way other people play.

There's only one person here doing that, and he does it on this thread year after year. And every year he loses his money to the people he's lecturing. (Hint....it's you.)

And yet I’ve won money more recently than you. 🤷🏻‍♂️  Let’s try another tactic, what is wrong with my strategy of playing aggressively? If your problem is only with the messenger and not with the message, that isn’t a valid criticism. 

I mean imagine admitting you have bad strategy this year but refusing to get better because of who the messenger is. Sounds like something my wife would do. 

Edited by Irieguy

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8 hours ago, Irieguy said:

And yet I’ve won money more recently than you.

Which has nothing to do with what we're talking about. We're talking about you lecturing other people on this thread. 

 

8 hours ago, Irieguy said:

Let’s try another tactic, what is wrong with my strategy of playing aggressively?

We're not talking about your strategy. We're talking about you lecturing other people on this thread. 

 

8 hours ago, Irieguy said:

 If your problem is only with the messenger and not with the message, that isn’t a valid criticism. 

My problem is with both. You have no business lecturing other people on this thread. 

 

Quote

I mean imagine admitting you have bad strategy this year but refusing to get better because of who the messenger is. 

What are you even talking about? We're not talking about my strategy or if I'm gonna do better next year or not. We're talking about you lecturing other people on this thread. 

 

Quote

Sounds like something my wife would do. 

I bet your wife enjoys how you deflect an argument away from it's original point to avoid answering the question at hand. My guess is you do this a lot. 

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Anyways I'm done trying to argue with this idiot. Sorry for mucking up the thread guys. 

 

Congrats again, BigO. I wish I had your game picking skills. I hope you can overcome the deficiencies in your game strategy next year so you win by a bigger margin. 

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Northloop, the entire purpose of this message board is to discuss how people play games, coach games, and manage strategies. Now usually that is discussing football. But what is so different about picking games?  Are we so sensitive that we can’t discuss strategy? I never said anything personal. But is there something sacred about this picking game that makes it above reproach? Are you that sensitive?

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Follow up request: NorthLoop can you let Blacklab know your criteria of who can discuss strategy on his board?  I’m sure he’s just waiting for your expertise with baited breath. Since you are the expert on board management I’m sure he will instantly make you a mod. Thanks in advance sir. 

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1 hour ago, UTEX90 said:

3rd!  So did win money or nah?  I have yet to receive my gift card.

I think you get a drink ticket for Sugars. 

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