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Markets still falling like whoa


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From the previous, unmentionable site to now, y’all know I have been heavily invested in TWTR and VRX.   Between shares, weekly and long options, I’ve had an incredible few weeks and especially the past few days.   

 

Riding the stocks higher, taking some profits, buying calls and repeating has yielded fairly nicely.   

Starting some positions in some other beat downs now.   

 

Bought AGN after hours today at 159 and bought CELG for 78.90 (also AH) all on the back of some VRX call profits from the last two days.   

 

Letting some VRX Aug 23’s and Oct 24’s ride.   They represent 3x my current Stock position and 1/5 the cost (all bought with profits from sale of shares).    I expect VRX to trade near 30 by Oct, perhaps higher.  

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20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Bought AGN after hours today at 159 and bought CELG for 78.90 (also AH) all on the back of some VRX call profits from the last two days.   

What's the action at AGN? My wife works there, and I haven't been aware of any recent acquisitions or sales.

CMG has made a nice run since they hired Brian Niccol away from Taco Bell. Too had I bought some back when it was priced at $570 (and more at $390), so I'm still in the red. Not sure if this will ever get back to the glory days.

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3 hours ago, Superhero said:

What's the action at AGN? My wife works there, and I haven't been aware of any recent acquisitions or sales.

CMG has made a nice run since they hired Brian Niccol away from Taco Bell. Too had I bought some back when it was priced at $570 (and more at $390), so I'm still in the red. Not sure if this will ever get back to the glory days.

I’m more or less a contrarian investor.  AGN is beaten up, but apparently Icahn took a big stake in it (announced AH today).   Big run in some of the Pharma space today, that coupled with Icahn making moves and some other things makes me think we’ll have a run for a bit in the Pharma sector.  AGN/CELG and other beaten down names will run hard (both down nearly 50% from 52 WH)

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11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I took a small position in ANTM calls at $227 underlying.  Not looking for much, just a small bump on the account.  It's up a bit at the close.

Curious why you like ANTM over UNH, AET, CVS, etc.  Not disagreeing with the pick, just interested in what you see technically to like versus others in the basket.

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It was just flagged by a screen I have used in the past to identify oversold S&P 500 stocks.  It uses a very short term RSI (2 day) along with normal ATR and a couple of other metrics so it's pretty picky.  I didn't write the screen but adapted it from a guy who was pretty active on stockfetcher.  He was very sharp and did excellent backtesting on ideas.

Now that SVXY has reduced their leverage because of the February VIX surge I don't trade it any more.  All historical data are useless because it's a different instrument now.  I need to identify other opportunities, so I'm going back over old strategies to see what worked best.

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Closed out my ANTM a bit early, leaving money on the table.  Oh well.  Made 44% on the trade, ~ 1.5% on the account.  Great day . . . if it could be done every day.

I continue to close in on just seeking quick profits on good buy prices.  I wish I had a good way to simulate it, but it would either cost me a crap ton to buy the data or no go.

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30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Closed out my ANTM a bit early, leaving money on the table.  Oh well.  Made 44% on the trade, ~ 1.5% on the account.  Great day . . . if it could be done every day.

I continue to close in on just seeking quick profits on good buy prices.  I wish I had a good way to simulate it, but it would either cost me a crap ton to buy the data or no go.

Needs to be set to Ice Cube playing in the back ground. 

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2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Costco killing it.  11% comps and when you take out gas, it's still +8%.  Stock will close over $200 today.

I keep hearing about new companies being "Costco for millennials."  You know what the Costco for millennials will be?  It'll be Costco.

Another one I kept talking myself out of, along with AMZN.  Which is amazingly stupid because those are probably my two largest retail expenses every month, excluding HEB. What a fucking chart.

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48 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Another one I kept talking myself out of.  Which is amazingly stupid because those are probably my two largest retail expenses every month, excluding HEB. What a fucking chart.

I almost invested heavily into Costco before the holidays as all signals said buy but talked myself out bc of the retail broader market issue. I worried it would be dragged down despite its performance. I lose again

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1 hour ago, Washpark said:

I almost invested heavily into Costco before the holidays as all signals said buy but talked myself out bc of the retail broader market issue. I worried it would be dragged down despite its performance. I lose again

I had the same worries and got out of Macy's in February. Not a wise move.

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I bought Costco a few years back in the $90's.  They're a well run business who pays their employees well and gets great employees as a result.  They're in big, wealthy cities unlike WMT/Sams who are generally in shit locations.  They have a moat around them in regards to AMZN to a degree in that they sell in bulk but also their store brands are really good.  They got VERY oversold after the AMZN/WF deal.  (A lot of retailers did.)

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Sam's has $57B in revenue with 600 stores ($95M/store.)  Costco has #130B with around 700 stores ($185M/store).  It's not close between the two.  Costco does over twice the revenue per store.

And all you have to do is set foot in a Costco and a Sam’s Club to witness the difference in Merchandising and Product Quality.

I shop at Costco because I know I am going to get good stuff.  I will totally live with lack of selection and seasonality is offerings to be real confident when I buy stuff it won’t be crap.

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2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Sam's has $57B in revenue with 600 stores ($95M/store.)  Costco has #130B with around 700 stores ($185M/store).  It's not close between the two.  Costco does over twice the revenue per store.

Errr . . . point taken, but 1.95 < 2.  

</anal retentive number geek>

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2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

And all you have to do is set foot in a Costco and a Sam’s Club to witness the difference in Merchandising and Product Quality.

I shop at Costco because I know I am going to get good stuff.  I will totally live with lack of selection and seasonality is offerings to be real confident when I buy stuff it won’t be crap.

This.

What I like about Costco is what Wall Street doesn't like.  If they cut their payroll and improved their margins, their stock would double overnight.  However, they're more interested in running a good and long term sustainable business than worrying about GMROI for the next quarter like WMT/Sam's.  

It only helps that they're in big wealthy markets.

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Just now, Anastasis said:

Any thoughts on what the action around T looks like post-decision?

I think if it's denied T runs to high 30's.  If it's accepted I think it could pull back for a bit in AH, but then run to the optimal deal price which I believe is T= 37.41.  

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This will also spur an unreal amount of further M&A in the space.  Don't be surprised a bit for someone to lay a $50bn or $60bn valuation on TWTR to try and scoop it up (think AMZN, GOOG, DIS, or MSFT) as a preemptive full streaming media play.  The groundwork is there for it to succeed as a fully functional service, it just needs the right hands.  Those valuations would put the stock at 66 or 80.   

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6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I think if it's denied T runs to high 30's.  If it's accepted I think it could pull back for a bit in AH, but then run to the optimal deal price which I believe is T= 37.41.  

So far spot on.  Was up 1.7% or so AH, decision released, down 2% and bouncing around.  

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Updated prediction on T/TWX deal.  I bet they get the deal closed tomorrow (friday is triple witching options expiry) and the stock closes up around the optimal deal price of 37.41/share.  Hundreds of thousands of options have been waiting on this deal. Something will give and T has all the motivation in the world to get this consummated immediately.  

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5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Updated prediction on T/TWX deal.  I bet they get the deal closed tomorrow (friday is triple witching options expiry) and the stock closes up around the optimal deal price of 37.41/share.  Hundreds of thousands of options have been waiting on this deal. Something will give and T has all the motivation in the world to get this consummated immediately.  

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And here's a good value on that trade right now.  Buy the weekly expiry calls at the 33 strike price right now for .21.  Even if it gets back to 34 that's almost a 5x gain on your $$.  Straight gamble, but we could see it there by this afternoon as well.  

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

And here's a good value on that trade right now.  Buy the weekly expiry calls at the 33 strike price right now for .21.  Even if it gets back to 34 that's almost a 5x gain on your $$.  Straight gamble, but we could see it there by this afternoon as well.  

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4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

And here's a good value on that trade right now.  Buy the weekly expiry calls at the 33 strike price right now for .21.  Even if it gets back to 34 that's almost a 5x gain on your $$.  Straight gamble, but we could see it there by this afternoon as well.  

I'm joining at .09! Lolz let's waste some gains from my AMD insanity

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52 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I joined your guys' T party at $0.14 so of course they're down to $.1 and falling.  Not worried about losing the whole $0.14 though, it's a tiny lot.  I'm just gonna let it ride.

Yeah, I went overboard, but TWTR and VRX have treated me well the past 2 weeks.  I figured I may as well try the magic in other name.  I think this tank is way overdone right now on T.  I also think they will try to get the deal finalized by friday, and we'll see it drift back towards yesterday's closing price.  Then we'll have a real T party 

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1 minute ago, Captainant said:

You're telling me! I bought some cheap $15 7/20 calls a few weeks ago and they've shot up 1000% and I've been holding a bunch of AMD since it was $11

I've been adding to my position since about the same price area (some at 11, some when it dropped below 10).   I have 100 16 weeklies for this week that I bought before close yesterday.  Think I might take the $$ on those in a few minutes. 

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