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1 minute ago, Dolemite said:

I have watched this 3 times. This is the third time that I have posted this video on this site. For those who are seriously interested in the middle east please watch this all the way through and see how relevant this is in retrospect, considering the changes in Saudi Arabia, and the annulment of the Iranian deal.

Iran is coming down and peace is coming to the middle east, much quicker than most can imagine.

 

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Ah, yes, the felon's failson who somehow fucked up investing in Manhattan real estate and engineered a coup in Saudi Arabia in exchange for a bailout is going to be the one to resolve all of the conflicts in the middle east.

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1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

Ah, yes, the felon's failson who somehow fucked up investing in Manhattan real estate and engineered a coup in Saudi Arabia in exchange for a bailout is going to be the one to resolve all of the conflicts in the middle east.

Are you talking about Trump or Kushner? 

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11 minutes ago, Dolemite said:

I have watched this 3 times. This is the third time that I have posted this video on this site. For those who are seriously interested in the middle east please watch this all the way through and see how relevant this is in retrospect, considering the changes in Saudi Arabia, and the annulment of the Iranian deal.

Iran is coming down and peace is coming to the middle east, much quicker than most can imagine.

 

Ahh yes, because if recent history has taught us anything, it is that when Middle East regimes come down, peace ensues. 

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http://isicrc.org/khomeiniist-regime-tries-to-smuggle-thousands-of-dollars-in-cash-to-iraq-to-promote-their-favorite-iraqi-puppet/

Wonder why they have so many extra stacks of US dollars.

Quote

VIDEO EXCLUSIVE : Iraqi Police intercept 31 boxes filled with stacks of $100 bills, smuggled from Iran, into Iraq, to be delivered to Hadi Al-Amari, head of the pro-Khomeiniist regime Badr militia and current Iraqi parliamentarian, for his re-election, ahead of the May 12th vote.

 

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"If we could create an option in which Iran eliminated every single nut and bolt of their nuclear program, I would take it, but that option isn't available"

"What is the best way for us to assure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon, not based on trust, based on what we can verify..."

"...in the same way Ronald Reagan was able to negotiate with the Soviet Union even as we were still contesting them around the world... That removes one more threat, and of a critical existential threat, takes it out of their arsenal and allows us, then to ultimately, uh I think win them, uh, uh, uh, defeat, some of their agenda throughout the region without worrying somehow its going to escalate or trigger nuclear arms race in the most volatile part of the world.

Damn I forgot how full of shit Barry was.

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40 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

To be fair, we invested trillions into Iraqi elections. 

Sure, everyone loves a puppet government. I'm not saying we don't do that. But we dropped off stacks of cash to Iran remember? This is what they are wasting it on.

Edited by SmokeyBear1861
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39 minutes ago, SmokeyBear1861 said:

 

 

Sure, everyone loves a puppet government. I'm not saying we don't do that. But we dropped off stacks of cash to Iran remember? This is what they are wasting it on.

I member. We gave them their money back years ago. I'm sure the cash they are using now comes from the $10's of billions in dollars of trade they have with China, Russia and the EU. I'm sure your aware that money is fungible. 

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1 hour ago, Ragnarok said:

I really have never understood how Obama got 500 million in cash without Congress even knowing.   Hope Iran rats out all the politicians who got money.

The Iranians paid those funds into a "Foreign Military Sales Account" originally set up by the US Government to receive Iranian payments for US Military jets/tanks/weaponry prior to 1979.

The Shah's govt had over $10 billion in weapons orders in the pipeline when he went into exile and the balance of the FMS account was $400m at the time of the hostage crisis. Carter froze the fund, Reagan unfroze it after hostage release, and then kicked the entire issue to an international tribunal in The Hague, and the status of the balance of the FMS has been contested as part of the larger claims resolution process since then.

The US has long said the FSA was an interest-free account and the Iranians have long said the fuck it was.

So, all that said, I don't think it would have required Congressional authority to release the funds since it wasn't technically "spending" by the Federal Govt...

But I bet you'll still see some shady shit come to light, nevertheless.

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On 5/9/2018 at 8:06 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Tons of disinformation operations on social media when shit like this goes down. 

The non-coverage is what happens when journalists get crucified for not getting the facts right in these situations.  It’s best to wait to let the dust settle to determine what actually went down.

Just catching up on this thread. We’re going to let this slide? The poster who has 20 threads on pure speculation about evidence he has never seen is going to tell us to not believe everything we see and to wait it out for the accurate information. 

Edited by Jhawk
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58 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Just catching up on this thread. We’re going to let this slide? The poster who has 20 threads on pure speculation about evidence he has never seen is going to tell us to not believe everything we see and to wait it out for the accurate information. 

This is what Surly is, now  The Hugo (dis)information outlet.  Just look at his popularity, it's true.

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On 5/8/2018 at 8:26 PM, XR4ticlone said:

America didn't MAKE ANY PROMISES...

The Obama Administration is still madly in love with Iran and it's deal...I'm sure they're 100% in place on THEIR deal.

See the American PEOPLE didn't make a promise.  WE make promises via TREATY.  

 Why don't we have an IRAN TREATY?  Because it was a shitty deal and no one other than a lame duck, muslim loving, dip shit and his leftist lap dogs wanted this POS.

 Even Jon Podesta said it was a joke and Iran would get nukes from the deal...and the money?  Well, the money's all gone.  😡

You type like a Trump tweet. That's an insult, by the way.

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  • 2 weeks later...

https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/05/regime-appears-fragile-as-iranians-turn-much-of-their.html?adbid=999550323663388672&adbpl=tw&adbpr=22545453&adbsc=social_20180524_2369011

ounting economic hardship is fueling persistent unrest in Iran, now characterized by labor strikes across the country and anti-regime sentiment. New sanctions stemming from President Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal may well exacerbate already difficult economic conditions.

Now may be the right time to exert maximum pressure on the regime in an effort to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table.

Last December and January, demonstrations flared across Iran. It began in Mashhad over rising prices and the overall poor state of the economy, but quickly spread across the country with demonstrators increasingly focusing their wrath on the clerical regime.

Protests have continued as workers staged hundreds of strikes across the country, from Tehran and Tabriz in the north, to Isfahan and Yazd in the center and Ahvaz in the south. Grievances are both economic and political, ranging from unpaid wages and massive layoffs to ethnic marginalization, and regime censorship.

Many of the ongoing protests continue to be driven by religious, working-class Iranians, heretofore the foundation of regime support.

The nuclear deal was supposed to ease Iran's international isolation and stimulate foreign investment, but corruption, economic mismanagement, a problematic legal framework and ongoing U.S. targeted sanctions have dampened international business interest.

Unemployment and inflation is high, the banking sector is weak and many Iranian businesses are finding it difficult to operate.

The Iranian economy is increasingly fragile, driven in part by a currency crisis due to an inability to attract major banks into the country. Unemployment and inflation is high, the banking sector is weak and many Iranian businesses, particularly those engaged in import and export, are finding it difficult to operate.

Moreover, new draconian sanctions will exacerbate economic hardships by restricting foreign investment and limiting Iran's ability to export oil. Major firms such as Boeing, Airbus, Total and Siemens have indicated they are monitoring the situation, but will almost certainly comply with new U.S. sanctions, barring exemptions.

While the persistent, simmering unrest is largely fueled by economic hardship, protestors have directed their anger at the ruling elite, plunging the regime into a legitimacy crisis.

Chants and slogans of striking workers, such as “Down with Khamenei” and “Islamic Republic, no more, no more" reveal that anger is increasingly directed against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic ruling order.

Notably, protestors have chanted “independence, freedom, Iranian Republic” which parallels the popular 1978–79 revolutionary slogan, “independence, freedom, Islamic Republic.” Prominently swapping Islamic for Iranian highlights mounting discontent with theocratic rule.

This toxic mix of sanctions and anti-regime sentiment portends ongoing unrest, stepping up the pressure on a regime that has been unable to deliver on promises of an improved economy. Indeed, the clerical regime is increasingly vulnerable.

Labor strikes and unrest were a hallmark of the pre-revolutionary period. In particular, oil workers played a key role in the downfall of the shah.

Tens of thousands of workers in the oil fields of southwestern Iran and in the refineries, distribution centers and offices of major cities began to strike in September 1978, and the unrest continued until February 1979, essentially paralyzing the state.

Undoubtedly aware of the threat to the regime, President Hassan Rouhani has stated Iran will continue to abide by the nuclear agreement as long as its interests are protected and the other five signatories — the U.K., France, Germany, Russia and China — do the same.

To this end, Tehran has begun a round of negotiations to shore up the deal. Iran's goals are to avoid a new round of broad-based, draconian economic sanctions and to isolate the United States from its European partners.

Indeed, the three European signatories to the nuclear agreement are key. The Trump administration could launch a concerted diplomatic campaign aimed at garnering their support for new sanctions and forcing Tehran into a new round of negotiations.

Any new formula could address shared concerns, namely limiting Iran's ballistic missile program, ensuring inspector access to military facilities and addressing Iran's malign and destabilizing activity in the region. However, points of contention, such as eliminating the nuclear deal's sunset clause may be harder to overcome.

Nevertheless, given the Iranian regime's economic and political vulnerabilities, this new pressure would be well-timed and has the potential to force Iran back to the negotiating table.

Concerted pressure from the U.S. and its European allies could pressure Iran into negotiating a new agreement.

Tehran has been adamant that it will not re-negotiate the nuclear deal, but concerted pressure from the United States and its European allies could pressure Iran into negotiating a new agreement.

This is a high-risk strategy, however, which warrants a word of caution. Insights into the internal situation in Iran are limited, and it remains unclear where any new pressure might lead. The re-imposition of draconian sanctions could lead to a backlash, increase anti-U.S. sentiment and bolster support for the regime.

In addition, new sanctions could lead Tehran to abrogate the deal and jump start its nuclear program with all the risks this move would bring.

Finally, maximum pressure could lead to regime collapse. It is hazardous to predict the downfall of any regime, and the Islamic Republic can count on robust security organizations, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that, at least currently, remain loyal.

Indeed, the security forces will be a bellwether of regime sustainability. Nevertheless, the regime appears fragile, and the situation could unravel with little warning.

Regime change is an unpredictable business, as Iraq in 2003 demonstrated. The United States would be wise to prepare for substantial unrest and potential regime collapse, which, if mishandled, could exacerbate instability in an already chaotic Middle East.


Richard C. Baffa is a senior international/defense policy researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. Nathan Vest is a research assistant and Middle East specialist at RAND.

This commentary originally appeared on The Hill on May 18, 2018. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.

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I know past events have no bearing on predictions of those who want regime change, but...

Did everyone see that al-Sadr's coalition won control in the recent Iraqi election.  In case anyone has forgotten who that is, he was the radical cleric who was the leader of the "Mehdi Army."  You know, the guys who were killing American and coalition troops during the first few years of the occupation.  That's what 15 years of blood and treasure nets us.  That's what we spent around a trillion dollars for.  That's what 4,541 US soldiers died for, including 11 this year. 

But I'm sure Iran will be different.  Because it's three times the population.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

US President attempts to further enrich hostile nation and its banks, while lying about it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-took-lying-to-new-heights-with-the-iran-deal/2018/06/07/b75f72d2-6a7c-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html

 

“In other words, the Obama administration: (1) told Congress it would not allow Iran access to U.S. financial institutions; (2) issued a special license allowing Iran to do exactly that; (3) unsuccessfully pressured U.S. banks to help Iran; (4) lied to Congress and the American people about what it had done; (5) admitted in internal emails that these efforts “exceeded” U.S. obligations under the nuclear deal; (6) sent officials, including bank regulators, around the world to urge foreign financial institutions to do business with Iran; and (7) promised that they would get nothing more than a slap on the wrist for violating U.S. sanctions.”

I guess the pallets of cash weren’t enough...

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I acknowledge the author’s slant, but the column is full of links laying everything out.   Given the full roster of apologists on this site, I’ll take the silence as an admission of deceptive behavior at least, illegal behavior at worst, all in the pursuit of a foreign policy “win” for a flailing President. 

And before anyone says it, I’ll be happy to condemn Trump if word comes out that he gave billions under the table or more to North Korea, while his officials lie repeatedly about it. 

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14 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I acknowledge the author’s slant, but the column is full of links laying everything out.   Given the full roster of apologists on this site, I’ll take the silence as an admission of deceptive behavior at least, illegal behavior at worst, all in the pursuit of a foreign policy “win” for a flailing President. 

And before anyone says it, I’ll be happy to condemn Trump if word comes out that he gave billions under the table or more to North Korea, while his officials lie repeatedly about it. 

A flailing president who will always be more successful and more popular than the current occupant of the White House.

Awwww.

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6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

A flailing president who will always be more successful and more popular than the current occupant of the White House.

Awwww.

Maybe so. Whether you think it or not, the jury is still out on Trump.

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17 hours ago, GRHorn said:

US President attempts to further enrich hostile nation and its banks, while lying about it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-took-lying-to-new-heights-with-the-iran-deal/2018/06/07/b75f72d2-6a7c-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html

 

“In other words, the Obama administration: (1) told Congress it would not allow Iran access to U.S. financial institutions; (2) issued a special license allowing Iran to do exactly that; (3) unsuccessfully pressured U.S. banks to help Iran; (4) lied to Congress and the American people about what it had done; (5) admitted in internal emails that these efforts “exceeded” U.S. obligations under the nuclear deal; (6) sent officials, including bank regulators, around the world to urge foreign financial institutions to do business with Iran; and (7) promised that they would get nothing more than a slap on the wrist for violating U.S. sanctions.”

I guess the pallets of cash weren’t enough...

That is why there were pallets of cash.

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5 hours ago, David Dennison said:

If Congress thinks someone misled them, they should do something about it.

Narrator: They won't.

Ah, now you’re getting to the point.  

They might convene some hearing and take part in some kabuki theater about shutting down things like this, but it’s all lip service.  I don’t think anybody on either side wants to blow up their game.  Republicans are probably up to something similar now.

Whataboutism is tiresome, but there’s truth behind almost all of it.  Both sides are hopelessly corrupt.  Elites on both sides think they’re above the law.   And they are.  Even a lackey like Ben Rhodes who helped engineer the deception and payoffs of Iran deal is rewarded with gigs on MSNBC and NBC as some beacon of truth. 

Look at the Clinton email thing.  McCabe will get immunity, but the FBI throws regular people’s asses in jail all the time for lying to investigators.  Clapper, Brennan, Comey, people lie all the time to Congress. No consequences.  This is all without touching banks and financial system that skated under Obama’s watch.  A real champion of the people, that guy.  

Anybody with even a passing knowledge of history knows that populism ends badly, but this is how you get there.   An elite that is unbelievably corrupt and above the law.  Unless and until the bipartisan corruption problem is dealt with in a meaningful way, I think we will continue further down this path.  Trump could be just the beginning. 

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Sanctions are being reimposed today on the murderous Islamic regime in Tehran. As an Iranian-American, I unequivocally support Trump’s actions against Iran. He has acted like an idiot in lots of policy areas, ending birthright citizenship is the latest, but he has been absolutely on the money with his SC picks and Iran policy. Pressuring the thugs in Iran rather than sending pallets of cash like Obama is how to deal with them. There is enough unrest and dissatisfaction that regime change can happen eventually with enough of a push by the US. Of course, I would rather see the Iranian people not suffer through sanctions and would much rather prefer to see targeted assassinations of leading Islamic Republic leaders like Mossad would do. Targeted assassinations should never have been outlawed as a tool of American foreign policy.

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21 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Sanctions are being reimposed today on the murderous Islamic regime in Tehran. As an Iranian-American, I unequivocally support Trump’s actions against Iran. He has acted like an idiot in lots of policy areas, ending birthright citizenship is the latest, but he has been absolutely on the money with his SC picks and Iran policy. Pressuring the thugs in Iran rather than sending pallets of cash like Obama is how to deal with them. There is enough unrest and dissatisfaction that regime change can happen eventually with enough of a push by the US. Of course, I would rather see the Iranian people not suffer through sanctions and would much rather prefer to see targeted assassinations of leading Islamic Republic leaders like Mossad would do. Targeted assassinations should never have been outlawed as a tool of American foreign policy.

Sanctions don't work if you make a cynical waivers list like the White House did. These "sanctions" are just for show.

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21 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Fake Sanctions.

Just about every country doing big business with Iran is getting waivers. 

 

Waivers for a 6 month reprieve on just a handful of countries. Swift agreed to take Iranian banks offline which is huge.

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28 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

There is enough unrest and dissatisfaction that regime change can happen eventually with enough of a push by the US.

Not this shit again. I can't imagine many people in Iran are looking to lock arms with the USA to do much of anything. Our record with democracy there is singularly poor. It's right up there with our Latin American policies of the mid century. We deposed an elected leader and reinstalled a despot. One can only imagine the Seismic readings near the graves of Washington, Jefferson, and Sam Adams.

We must stop seeing ourselves as well-wishing liberators wherever we go and assuming we will always be met with a rain of candies, flowers, and the kisses of a grateful public. Our best bet for any change in Iran is to keeping our noses, fingers, and operatives out of there. 

Sometimes doing nothing is the best move regarding regime stability.

WE'RE NOT GOOD AT THIS. WE SUCK AT THIS. 

Plus, aren't we supposed to be the guys in favor of self-determination? Let's go with that.

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15 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Not this shit again. I can't imagine many people in Iran are looking to lock arms with the USA to do much of anything. Our record with democracy there is singularly poor. It's right up there with our Latin American policies of the mid century. We deposed an elected leader and reinstalled a despot. One can only imagine the Seismic readings near the graves of Washington, Jefferson, and Sam Adams.

We must stop seeing ourselves as well-wishing liberators wherever we go and assuming we will always be met with a rain of candies, flowers, and the kisses of a grateful public. Our best bet for any change in Iran is to keeping our noses, fingers, and operatives out of there. 

Sometimes doing nothing is the best move regarding regime stability.

WE'RE NOT GOOD AT THIS. WE SUCK AT THIS. 

Plus, aren't we supposed to be the guys in favor of self-determination? Let's go with that.

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Icono, I assume you believe then it would be perfectly fair for countries in an adversarial relationship with the US to also pursue targeted assassination programs as well?  

Do other countries have the US military, economic clout and diplomatic pull that we can point to to counter any attempt by an adversary to assassinate our own people? We have the might and ability to get away with assassinations just like Israel and we wouldn’t be stupid like MBS was in killing Khashoggi in our own consulate. I didn’t agree with Orca on virtually anything except for sanctions are a poor substitute to dropping a bomb or having a sniper blow Khamenei’s head off.
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57 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Not this shit again. I can't imagine many people in Iran are looking to lock arms with the USA to do much of anything. Our record with democracy there is singularly poor. It's right up there with our Latin American policies of the mid century. We deposed an elected leader and reinstalled a despot. One can only imagine the Seismic readings near the graves of Washington, Jefferson, and Sam Adams.

We must stop seeing ourselves as well-wishing liberators wherever we go and assuming we will always be met with a rain of candies, flowers, and the kisses of a grateful public. Our best bet for any change in Iran is to keeping our noses, fingers, and operatives out of there. 

Sometimes doing nothing is the best move regarding regime stability.

WE'RE NOT GOOD AT THIS. WE SUCK AT THIS. 

Plus, aren't we supposed to be the guys in favor of self-determination? Let's go with that.

Not saying I disagree with you, however aren't some of the folks from those Latin American countries most of the ones who are still trying to get into our country by any way possible? Yeah, we do some pretty crappy stuff, and did much crappier stuff in the past, but that doesn't mean that all people don't see the good in America still. While I haven't spent any time in the Middle East, I spent a summer in an overwhelmingly muslim West African country, and they all wanted to go to America even though none of them liked our leader, Dubya. We've obviously not meddled in West Africa in recent history like we have the Middle East, but I would not be surprised at all if you could find a significant proportion of people even in Iran who would be pro West. I'm not saying sanctions are the best option, but there isn't reason to abandon all hope.

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Not this shit again. I can't imagine many people in Iran are looking to lock arms with the USA to do much of anything. Our record with democracy there is singularly poor. It's right up there with our Latin American policies of the mid century. We deposed an elected leader and reinstalled a despot. One can only imagine the Seismic readings near the graves of Washington, Jefferson, and Sam Adams.
We must stop seeing ourselves as well-wishing liberators wherever we go and assuming we will always be met with a rain of candies, flowers, and the kisses of a grateful public. Our best bet for any change in Iran is to keeping our noses, fingers, and operatives out of there. 
Sometimes doing nothing is the best move regarding regime stability.
WE'RE NOT GOOD AT THIS. WE SUCK AT THIS. 
Plus, aren't we supposed to be the guys in favor of self-determination? Let's go with that.

Iranians are a very proud people. I’m not advocating for an invasion. This is what I would do:

1. Apply pressure on the thugocracy which thanks to Trump we are doing.

2. Don’t support any groups threatening the territorial integrity of Iran.

3. Kill Khamenei. He is the prime stumbling block and this where assassinations can be used for good. I would have Maduro in Venezuela killed too.

4. Call for a national referendum for free elections in Iran without any vetting by the Islamic theocrats.

Obviously #3 is a wish but the rest of these items are doable
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