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2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread


Machinator

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4 minutes ago, Revolution512 said:

I’d say Georgia and Okie St are terrible. Nonetheless, we are deserving at present day.

Georgia is pretty close to being a bad loss. Oklahoma State is a top 100 team in the NET (Q2 game), and that's going to go up after knocking off TCU. Not a game we should have lost, but the committee won't penalize us too harshly for that one.

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8 hours ago, realgreggym said:

According to the TV announcers, we have the 3# SOS in the country. If we played a schedule that many other teams play, our record would probably be much better. Its possible that we have played more ranked teams in conference than some teams have played all year. That may have a little something to do with our current tourney standing. . 

That loss happened before they dismissed several players too. 

If they devalue our win @ K-State because of injuries they better also take into account stuff like that when evaluating "bad" losses. Oklahoma State would have more wins if they didn't dismiss those players. 

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bracketmatrix had TCU right above us as of today. With TCU's loss to OSU, they're going to fall, which inserts yet another team between Texas and the cutline and puts us right at the middle of the S-curve. Amazing how terrible the bubble is this year.

Edited by Machinator
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Realistically, with how weak the bubble is, we probably need just one win down the stretch to make the tournament. However, if this team wants to show that it's truly improving, they'll split at least one of the two next road games, beat TCU at home, and maybe even find a way to beat Tech or Iowa State.

If we reach 9-9 or better, the Kansas City games will merely serve to improve our tourney seeding.

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1 hour ago, Machinator said:

bracketmatrix had TCU right above us as of today. With TCU's loss to OSU, they're going to fall, which inserts yet another team between Texas and the cutline and puts us right at the middle of the S-curve. Amazing how terrible the bubble is this year.

Baylor is @ ISU tomorrow. St Johns is @ Providence on Wed. Auburn gets Arkansas at home on Wed. 

Those three teams are just above us in bracketmatrix and 1 or 2 could lose this week. OU is also going to be a "Q1 win or loss" because it's on the road so a win there will be viewed as quality win. Beat OU and we're probably on the 8 seed line in a lot of brackets. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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This is not meant as a shot towards anyone who is posting about our tourney chances, but i'll just chime in to say that i've spent almost no time posting about this because we are going to to be comfortably in the tourney. We're likely going to have a coin flip first game followed by a potential ass kicking should we win the first game. But as far as making the tourney goes i cannot see a scenario where we miss out, barring unforeseen injuries or suspensions. We are easily a tourney team, and have been all year. And as frustrating and up and down as we can be, our SOS + quality wins trumps anything that 99% of the bubble teams have accomplished. we're in y'all. let's just hope we finish the season strong so we can fuck around and avoid an 8 or 9 seed. 

Edited by Goo Punch
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1 hour ago, VinyVango said:

I think 18 wins is what will be needed to be a probable NCAA tourney team.  With 17 wins, our fate is reliant upon some other teams to clear out the bubble and take care of business in their tournaments.  Less than 17 wins, this team doesn't deserve an NCAA bid.

I’m not even sure if we’re at that point with 17 wins anymore. Teams have been clearing themselves out fo the bubble for a couple weeks now. I guess it’ll be somewhat dependent on how many bids are stolen in conference tourneys, but I’d bet we’d get a play in game at 17 right now.

especially since getting to 17 would likely include two more Q1 wins.

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Looking at Sagarin's rankings, for what they're worth, he has us beating Iowa State and TCU here at home and losing to OU, Baylor and TTech on the road.  

I'm thinking ISU is a stretch, even in Austin.

I think we can take OU to balance that out.

We need to win a game or two in the B12 tournament for me to sleep well.  I get it, the bubble sucks, but viewed with an historical eye, our W/L just looks bad.  Our actual computer rankings say something else (Sagarin #27, for example).  Weird year.

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2 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

especially since getting to 17 would likely include two more Q1 wins.

That’s the big thing. 4 out of the 5 remaining games are probably Q1 opportunities. 

If Texas finishes with 6 to 7 Q1 wins, a top 5ish SOS and a few games over .500 there is no chance they are going to be left out of the field. 

 

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This is what it currently looks like in terms of Q1 wins for bubble teams. 

Texas 4

St Johns 5

Baylor 3

Auburn 0

Syracuse 2

TCU 1

Wofford 2

Ohio State 4

OU 3

NC State 1

Minnesota 3

VCU 1

Seton Hall 3

UCF 0

Alabama 3

Florida 3

ASU 3

Clemson 1

Temple 1

Those teams are all in the tournament per bracketmatrix. Then here are the teams just outside the field. 

Butler 2

Nebraska 2

Utah State 1

Davidson 0

Indiana 5

Furman 1

Toledo 0

UNC Greensboro 1

6 or 7 Q1 wins would probably put Texas at the top all the way down to about the 8 seed line. Indiana is a good example of how much Q1 wins matter. They've lost 10/11 but they're hanging on in brackets because of the 5 Q1 wins. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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1 hour ago, Machinator said:

So the article says "there is no timetable for his return".

The number/profile of players who have left our program early under Shaka is staggering considering he hasn't even been here four years. From D-1 talents like Banks and Young who've transferred out, to legit players like Mack and Barnett leaving the program, to EDJ "going pro" after his junior year- and all of this is on top early entry guys like Taylor, Bamba, Allen, and Hayes, to losing guys like Jones and Ridley to injury...its just staggering. That's really the best word i can come up with. If we add Roach to this list? Just brutal. 

Edited by Goo Punch
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I don't envy Shaka's position right now:

Bench Roach for violating team rules (for the 3rd? 4th? time?) and potentially lose one of our last few winnable games.  That suspension--and the resulting loss(es)--would put us further out on the bubble.  And if we miss the tournament, Shaka is almost certainly out of a job.

OR

Don't bench Roach, because Shaka knows he needs Roch to help get us into the tournament and Shaka knows he needs to make the tourney to keep his job.  But by doing so, Shaka destroys the culture he has tried to create.  It will become apparent that stars get treated differently than others for discipline purposes, especially when it comes to Shaka's own personal interests.  That has huge implications on program culture.

 

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11 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

I don't envy Shaka's position right now:

Bench Roach for violating team rules (for the 3rd? 4th? time?) and potentially lose one of our last few winnable games.  That suspension--and the resulting loss(es)--would put us further out on the bubble.  And if we miss the tournament, Shaka is almost certainly out of a job.

OR

Don't bench Roach, because Shaka knows he needs Roch to help get us into the tournament and Shaka knows he needs to make the tourney to keep his job.  But by doing so, Shaka destroys the culture he has tried to create.  It will become apparent that stars get treated differently than others for discipline purposes, especially when it comes to Shaka's own personal interests.  That has huge implications on program culture.

 

If it's weed, and there's a strong chance it is, this may be beyond Shaka's purview.

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Fuck Roach.  If it's something more serious than oversleeping a class or practice, or having beer in a no-booze area on campus, he can spend the rest of this season pouting and working out with Buechele away from the team or at the Filipino league combine.

No surprise though.  He's shown a propensity to make the same boneheaded errors over and over again on the court too.

We shouldn't need him to beat OU.

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34 minutes ago, Machinator said:

If it's weed, and there's a strong chance it is, this may be beyond Shaka's purview.

Yup.

He clearly had an issue and was benched once already.  If this is his 2nd offense this season, 100% this is on Roach and I don't blame Shaka for it.  His hands were tied by school rules, like Holton Hill's dumb ass.

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It’s obvious that losing Roach hurts our teams but I figured I’d check the stats to see what they show. 

Roach has the third highest net rating at +9.2 and has the 2’d highest WS/40 of the regulars at .153. When looking at conference numbers, he’s not quite as good, coming in at 5th in Net with +4.7 and 3rd in WS/40 at .141. So, in conference, he’s been much less valuable to the team, however he’s far away one of our best 5 and he’s probably 3rd or 4th best overall. 

2 other observations, Matt has been much better since conference play started (matches the eye test). His WS/40 and Net rtg are way up. 

Also, Hayes is just getting better and better. He has a net rtg of +46.7 (+50.4 in Conf!) and WS/40 of .245 (that’s top 20 in the nation and this metric is weighed down for a player if he’s not on a good team). Hayes  is 1st in all of CFB with a TS% of .751. He’s got an argument as one of the 10 best players in P5 this year, and has been markedly better than Bamba, Allen, or Turner at UT. Absolutely nuts for a guy that was thought to be not ready to play much coming into this year.

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38 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

How did the line on the OU game change with the news on Roach being released?

The lines on college hoops usually don't come out til day of.  OU would probably have been a 3-5 point favorite based on BPI, NET and Sagarin rankings going in, so we can compare to what it looks like tomorrow.  My guess is OU -6.5.

Edited by TXSooner518
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So, Febres and Long will get some more time with Roach out. 

Looking at Febres' 3 point shooting as I wonder how effective he is as a shooter.  I don't know if there are stats for this, but he seems to shoot better when he has the Texas bench behind him, so I'm curious if there is a breakdown of his first half and second half percentages.  According to stats, he's shooting 36.1% in 3's over the season.  He is slightly up for the conference at 36.7%, but if you take out the highest (7-9 v KSU) and lowest (take your pick as he's had two 1-6 games OU and WV) in conference his percentage drops to 32.8%.  

Long's shooting percentage is 33.8% and 30.4 for three for the season. 

Both of these guys are going to have to raise their game for Texas to have a chance to win games the rest of the season.  And that includes from the foul line where Febres is 61.5% and Long is 57.1%. 

I can understand the logic in Shaka saying Febres is a great shooter, but it's time to pull out all of the motivational options.  

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I get the strength of schedule / RPI analysis and all, but a loss is a loss.  Unless we close the season out with at least 2 wins, we don't deserve a NCAA bid over small conference teams with good records who might get edged for their conference auto-bid.  I'd rather see a 24-25 win, no-name team get a chance over a underachieving, inconsistent team with "good losses".

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