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2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread


Machinator

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yeah. Lunardi also isn't considering Roach(our preceived best player was benched for 5 games).  If we reinstate him I think the committee will take that into account.

Its really hard to put OU and TCU in but not us given full year resume, unless you have a real problem with 16-16.

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Its really hard to put OU and TCU in but not us given full year resume, unless you have a real problem with 16-16.


Assuming OU loses at KSU, beats the 10 seed, then loses to the 2 and UT loses to KU:

Texas is 5-10 vs Q1, 4-4 vs Q2, 4-2 vs Q3 and 3-0 vs Q4. They have 4 losses to teams with no at-large hope at all, two of those losses at home, and 7 wins over at-large hopefuls.

OU is 4-11 vs Q1, 8-2 vs Q2, 7-0 vs Q3, and 0-0 vs Q4. They have 1 loss to a team with no at-large hope on the road. They have 6 or 7 wins over at-large hopefuls depending on how you feel about Creighton.

Texas has more elite wins but 12 to 9 in top 2 Q wins and 19 to 13 in top 3 Q wins plus Texas has worse losses.

TCU only has 4 wins over at large teams with 2 losses to non at-larges. TCU also has no Q3 or 4 losses.

Those two Q3 losses are a big drag on Texas. Switch them and UT is 18-13 and locked up.
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On 3/9/2019 at 1:08 PM, ClubWhatever said:

Our two best players, Roach and Hayes will be gone next year.  We will only have one experienced guard who is good enough to win consistently in the big 12 in Ramey.  Coleman is a defensive liability and just not consistent enough as a scorer.  Next year is going to be just as brutal if not more so. 

This is about as good of an argument as one can make for getting rid of Shaka now. This team sucked this year and he’ll have a much less talented team next year.

having said that, as long as we don’t lose 3 or more guys to coaching-change related attrition, this roster will be plenty talented next year for a quality coach to finish above .500 in conference.

the buyout is expensive but it only drops 3 million next year. Is $3 million worth our program being absolutely horrible next year, it killing our recruiting and leaving the program in a generally horrible state for the next coach? 

If we fire Shaka this year, a new coach will have a lot to work with and can put together a pretty good first year that will help him recruit moving forward and keep the overall talent level of the program relatively high.  If we keep Shaka another year, I can see this program being in a much, much worse spot this time next year.

 

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10 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is about as good of an argument as one can make for getting rid of Shaka now. This team sucked this year and he’ll have a much less talented team next year.

having said that, as long as we don’t lose 3 or more guys to coaching-change related attrition, this roster will be plenty talented next year for a quality coach to finish above .500 in conference.

the buyout is expensive but it only drops 3 million next year. Is $3 million worth our program being absolutely horrible next year, it killing our recruiting and leaving the program in a generally horrible state for the next coach? 

If we fire Shaka this year, a new coach will have a lot to work with and can put together a pretty good first year that will help him recruit moving forward and keep the overall talent level of the program relatively high.  If we keep Shaka another year, I can see this program being in a much, much worse spot this time next year.

 

I agree that keeping Shaka is a terrible long-term proposition, but we have no idea what the new coach will have to work with until attrition shakes out.

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Just now, Machinator said:

I agree that keeping Shaka is a terrible long-term proposition, but we have no idea what the new coach will have to work with until attrition shakes out.

Right but waiting another year won’t make that any better. Shaka’s next recruiting class won’t be better than this one, so you’re all but guaranteed to have less talent and have the program being in a way worse spot next year (due to a potentially really bad season next year), regardless of how hard we’re hit by attrition from Shaka leaving, be it this year or next.

 

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3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Right but waiting another year won’t make that any better. Shaka’s next recruiting class won’t be better than this one, so you’re all but guaranteed to have less talent and have the program being in a way worse spot next year (due to a potentially really bad season next year), regardless of how hard we’re hit by attrition from Shaka leaving, be it this year or next.

 

I agree. But it's something we need to keep in mind, especially if next season with a new coach ends up being a washout.

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6 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Sure but still, new coach minus 2 or so guys off next year’s roster > Shaka with everyone currently expected to return.

 

No disagreement there.

The two players I really want to hang onto are Ramey and Hepa. I think Coleman can be maximized by a better coach as well. 

As for the 2019 recruits, I really hope that Will Baker (being a local kid) likes UT more than he likes Shaka, and I think Kai Jones is a stud as well.

Edited by Machinator
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31 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

the buyout is expensive but it only drops 3 million next year. Is $3 million worth our program being absolutely horrible next year, it killing our recruiting and leaving the program in a generally horrible state for the next coach? 

This part drives me nuts. Like CDC is going to bring back a coach who needs to be canned for another year in order to shave $3 million off of $13 million. 

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4 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I bet he could if push comes to shove, but CDC is taking the "just because we can doesn't mean we should" route. We're going to need every dollar we have if A&M guns for Buzz as well and he's number 1 on our list.

Yeah, I've never thought the question is if we could actually get the money. The question is whether CDC wants to spend political/fundraising capital on this move. I think it's definitely worth it, and I'd bet CDC feels the same way considering how we've closed out conference play, but we won't know for a little while longer most likely. 

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10 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I bet he could if push comes to shove, but CDC is taking the "just because we can doesn't mean we should" route. We're going to need every dollar we have if A&M guns for Buzz as well and he's number 1 on our list.

I agree with the first statement-- my post was simply to indicate that if it comes down to $3m, Del Conte isn't going to be stopped from doing what he thinks is right, by a fraction of the operating budget.

The second part doesn't make a ton of sense. If we're stuck with Smart, there IS no bidding war for Williams. The $3m has to be retired whether directly out of the athletic department, via donation, or by jointly reducing Smart's buyout. 

The bidding war part is interesting. On the one hand, at the DNA level, I think Texas wants to win in basketball more than A&M does. Buzz Williams is worth more to us; I think we'd be willing to pay him more in a vacuum. But this won't happen in a vacuum, so, on the other hand, if they have a chance to beat us for something we both want, I'm pretty sure they'd bid like Elaine Benes trying to win JFK's golf clubs. Woodward is savvy enough to know what it would be worth in terms of goodwill to "steal" a coach from Texas. 

Edited by SwanderedTalent
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Our two best players, Roach and Hayes will be gone next year.  We will only have one experienced guard who is good enough to win consistently in the big 12 in Ramey.  Coleman is a defensive liability and just not consistent enough as a scorer.  Next year is going to be just as brutal if not more so. 

You're forgetting about Andrew Jones assuming he comes back healthy. A fully healthy Andrew Jones is an upgrade over Kerwin in terms of overall smarts and shooting. Disagree on Coleman being a defensive liability. He's an adequate defender unless he's outmatched in terms of size.

 

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On 3/10/2019 at 3:05 PM, SwanderedTalent said:

right. he can get $3m covered by motivated donors

if he comes to them and says I can get  "coach X" this year( or maybe a list of 2 to 3) or we can wait and convinces them, the  extra 3M to wait a year when you don't know what will be available is not a huge hurdle. 

someone a while back said Shaka had a big money guy in his corner.  that could be a problem if true.  

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i'm sorry for this cryptic post, but i have some info about next year's team that, because it comes to me second hand i don't feel comfortable posting about it publicly. it's nothing major just some info that I as a UT hooped fan was interested in. so again nothing major, just some player info that i heard. pm me if you like and i'll share it with you. 

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48 minutes ago, Machinator said:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Present in 90 out of 138 brackets.

I've been poring over these brackets for a couple of days now.  I really don't see how the Kansas game is anything other than a play-in game for Texas.  All the numbers are there, right now, to put TX in.  Said numbers would look even better with a win over KU.  That being said, there's a huge psychological hurdle to putting a .500 team in.  Really kind of sucks because if one believes in models and SOS, then Texas should be in.  I've always been a huge proponent of SOS in all sports; not just when it helps my alma mater.  After Thursday, TX will have played 20 of its 32 games against Top 50 teams (Sagarin).

One of the brackets - maybe USA Today - is supposed to mirror the data that the selection committee will be using on Sunday.  I was comparing said bracket to Sagarin.  I know Sagarin isn't used by the committee; however, I take it into account per old habits.  Sagarin has TX at 33, #5 SOS, 19 games v. Top 50 teams.  A couple of the teams they had over TX were:

Georgetown - 74th, 62nd SOS, 7 games against the Top 50

Belmont - 59, 236th Sos, 1 game against the Top 50

Georgetown, for example, has 3 fewer losses than TX.  Yes, Shaka sucks and all, but I'm pretty sure Texas would be able to make up these three games if they were able to flip 12 of their Top 50 matchups to games outside the Top 50.

Also, some of the brackets I saw had Baylor and OU squarely in as 8/9 seeds with TX out.  Sagarin has OU 29th, TX 33rd, and Baylor 39th.

 

 

 

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Two notable differences between Texas and Indiana:

1) Texas has a great noncon SOS. Indiana's is in the 200s. Texas also has a better overall SOS, though the difference isn't as stark.

2) Texas has 1-2 bad losses (depending on how Providence does in the Big East tournament) whereas Indiana has none.

Edited by Machinator
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5 hours ago, satyanash said:

UNC-Greensboro of all programs is taking shots at us for whatever reason

 

I mean it seems like they should be comparing themselves to a good team instead of us to prove they belong in the tournament. But whatever. I am sure there are several NIT teams that have less than 28 wins.

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Just now, Valmy77 said:

I mean it seems like they should be comparing themselves to a good team instead of us to prove they belong in the tournament. But whatever. I am sure there are several NIT teams that have less than 28 wins.

Before losing today we were just beneath the cutline, in all likelihood. We were the exact profile of team they are trying to leapfrog for a bid.

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