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College Football 2022


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53 minutes ago, Hammerin Hank said:

Someone tell me why I shouldn’t bet on UMass +33.5 against aggy. Aggy has not scored 33 points against anyone this season. They’re highest score was 31 against Sam Houston in week 1. UMass has only been beaten by more 33 once this year 55-10 against Toledo. I’m tempted to hit the moneyline at +3300

UMass is bad man.  FEI has them ranked 131 (dead last), 131 and 125 in Overall, Offense and Defense.  For comparison, App State ranks 69, 38 and 90.  

Even with all the guys out / dysfunction / lack of motivation,  Aggy should be able to impose their will.  UMass has allowed 7 yards/play against a bottom 10 strength of schedule.  Given the heat ol' Thin Skin is under, I'd expect him to put up as many points as he can purely to fight the narrative that he shouldn't be calling plays anymore.

I don't want to talk you out of betting ATS because it could happen and the potential lulz is worth it.  But I'd probably stay away from the ML.

EDIT-  Fuck it, sprinkle the moneyline.  Aggy has done nothing but aggy all season long. 

image.thumb.png.e5b5afd248dae5a586137dd66cf2e59e.png

 

Edited by 40acredropout
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7 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

UMass is bad man.  FEI has them ranked 131 (dead last), 131 and 125 in Overall, Offense and Defense.  For comparison, App State ranks 69, 38 and 90.  

Even with all the guys out / dysfunction / lack of motivation,  Aggy should be able to impose their will.  UMass has allowed 7 yards/play against a bottom 10 strength of schedule.  Given the heat ol' Thin Skin is under, I'd expect him to put up as many points as he can purely to fight the narrative that he shouldn't be calling plays anymore.

I don't want to talk you out of betting ATS because it could happen and the potential lulz is worth it.  But I'd probably stay away from the ML.

EDIT-  Fuck it, sprinkle the moneyline.  Aggy has done nothing but aggy all season long. 

image.thumb.png.e5b5afd248dae5a586137dd66cf2e59e.png

 

Thanks. This is the info I needed to look at. Still might play it for the lulz. If I do the moneyline it would just be 10 or 20 bucks

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UConn +10 @ Army

  • I think this UConn team has improved a ton over the course of the season.  Remember, they didn't play in 2020 and then this is Jim Mora's first season as well.  Say what you want about Mora, but he's a fantastic get for Uconn and he seems to be coaching them up.
  • Started out 1-4 (0-4 against FBS) and have now won 5 of their last 6. 
    • Just upset Liberty as a 13.5 point dawg, upset BC (by 10 points) as a 7.5 point dawg and beat Fresno State as a 22.5 point dawg
  • 9-2 ATS so far this season.  Covered 7 in a row
  • This is their last regular season game of the year.  Army has two more after this.  Feel like Mora keeps them from looking ahead to their bowl
  • Army has won 1 game against FBS competition this year.  FEI has them as 89th overall because they've actually played a decent schedule (Uconn at 108th) 
  • These teams rank 127th and 125th in seconds per play and 129th and 127th in Pass Play %.  Won't be a lot of points and I like Uconn's odds of keeping it close.

Auburn -5.5 vs Western Kentucky

  • I think Cadillac has Auburn motivated to play this one.   Despite Alabama being next week, Auburn sits at 4 wins so I feel like he gets them up for Senior Night and has them believing they can still go bowling.
  • WKU airs it the fuck out.  Throw 60% of the time (12th in country).  Auburn defense got their first test against a productive pass offense two weeks ago against Mississippi State.  They started to figure them out:
    • 1st Half:  36 Plays, 217 Yards, 6.03 yards/play, 24 points
    • 2nd Half:  42 Plays, 138 Yards, 3.29 yards/play, 9 points
  • Best team WKU has played to date is UTSA (58th in FEI).   
  • Really I'm counting on SEC size and athleticism showing up and dominating this game.  I think Auburn can slow down the air attack and my hope is Tank Bigsby can impose his will on the ground and wear out a WKU defense who has been more vulnerable against the run.
  • Obligatory for if (when) I'm wrong:

 

 

Edited by 40acredropout
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This week is the end of a season long picking contest between a buddy and I.  Stakes are high.  Let me know what y'all got.

Having not done any research, LSU -9.5 @ aggy is jumping out to me.  Question is who is going to suit up for A&M.  I'd assume LSU is going to play for style points so wouldn't expect them to take foot off gas too much.

What else y'all like?

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On 11/2/2022 at 10:08 PM, Assman said:

3-2 last week (added EMU UNDER after seeing the heavy fog 10 min before kick), 27-16-2 (+14U) on the season.  Props to @40acredropout for the UVA/Mia tip.

This week:

LSU +13

WVU/ISU U51

Miss St -10.5

Pitt -3.5

Wash St -4.5

I didn't bet any games last week because I was out of town and just forgot, but went 4-1 the week prior, so 31-17-2 (+18U) on the season.  I'm betting a few more than usual this week to make up for last:

ousux -2

WSU +1.5

USC -5

Wisc -3

Lou +3

USCe +14.5

GT +35.5

BC +10.5

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

So close to an epic win. 
we had under 43.5 on AF v Baylor. 
we had Air Force money line. 
During the game we took Baylor at +19.5 and plus 22.5. 
when Baylor scored to make the game 30-13 and went for 2 we were a stop away from winning all 4 bets if the 2 point conversion didn’t work. 4 different guys had a shot at him, and he got tackled literally 6 inches past the goal line stretching the ball out. Grrrrrrr. 
3 out of 4 ain’t bad. 
we’ve got UH tomorrow and Wake -1 hooked with Over 58.5. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

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