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2020 Democratic Nominee


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Just now, Dbeasy said:

It leaves voters confused and unclear about such an important critical issue, and until you can get your own party in agreement, or at least close to it, you look like spastic fools to everyone else.

Liz and Bernie combine for ~35% of the overall polling totals right now and Pete can barely crack 5%. Let's not pretend that Pete represents some kind of broad-based vision for anything. He's a cute little grandson for professional class white people.

If you're actually worried about what the masses of people think, look to the two candidates who have, by far, the largest grassroots movements and who are also doing well in the polls.

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Even in a fully funded government healthcare system, there would still be room for private sector players.  

The private sector you just said isn’t viable if cost control was a goal?

And what does that even mean? Who are you talking about? And what does “system” encompass even? Or “healthcare”?

I’m supportive of any of the plans that the Democrats have proposed (including M4A), and a number of the best plans they haven’t (like Wyden-Bennett).
But M4A as proposed by Sanders would not cover the most people the fastest with the highest standard of care for the lowest cost, and would cause the greatest disruption of services during the ramp period to go with facing the most difficult passage and the highest probability of either failing legislatively or being repealed.
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In reality, scale leads to efficiency in material production and inefficiency in service production. 
All the inefficiencies of government bureaucracy exist at any corporation of sufficient size. 

Of course they do, and on paper a monopsony yields the greatest economy of administrative scale. So what? That doesn’t mean that it will, or that other players can’t operate efficiently or carve out market space.
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M4A doesn't replace private providers of healthcare, all it does is replace private health insurers. Doctors and clinics and drug makers will all still be private entities in competition with each other for the Medicare dollar.

M4A simply...

1) Covers everyone automatically no matter what
2) Ensures that everyone has the coverage they need
3) Increases efficiency in insurance provision

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m supportive of any of the plans that the Democrats have proposed (including M4A), and a number of the best plans they haven’t (like Wyden-Bennett).

Wyden-Bennett doesn't achieve 100% coverage.

Non-starter.

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You have 34+ choices, 33 of which are emergency backups that you don't actually want.
Also, M4A gives you the option to use the M4A insurance or to ignore it completely and go cash-only. So that's at least 2.
Please update your talking points with this new information.

This is some mansplaining shit right here. Do periods next!
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Wouldn't Wyden-Bennett completely dismantle the employer-based health insurance model that Brad loves so much?
Please answer honestly.

Of course it would. Thats the biggest distortion in the market. That’s why it got walked in 2009- the USCOC told the GOP to knock it off and Obama thought it was too much like single payer.

But by that time all the concerns Edwin Park laid out were addressed, by the way- coverage was universal.
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Ah, interesting, so Wyden-Bennett is also a government-imposed destruction of the choices of red-blooded Americans like Brad?

#Sad

It is interesting, though, that the instinct from the center/center-right is to always punch Left despite the reality that it isn't the Left that kills all of this stuff. And by "interesting", I mean "predictable and pathetic".

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43 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Hugo and bad,

You can call everyone idiots and Republicans all you want, but the bottom line is that huge swaths of your own Democratic Party is standing up and saying M4A is not viable. It leaves voters confused and unclear about such an important critical issue, and until you can get your own party in agreement, or at least close to it, you look like spastic fools to everyone else.

I know, it's fucking insane that people are arguing about this in the primary phase of the election process. How is there not a united policy front that everyone agrees with and then we just pick the candidate that we want to have a beer with most? 

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14 hours ago, Js1 said:

Though if Joe is really winning the black vote 49-13 (Liz)-10 (Harris) by March, it's still over.  He will clean up in the South. 

The polls are only vaguely useful, but... yeah.

If I was an oddsmaker, I'd have Biden at 50% likely to win the Dem nomination (Bernie & Liz around 25% each).

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I know, it's fucking insane that people are arguing about this in the primary phase of the election process. How is there not a united policy front that everyone agrees with and then we just pick the candidate that we want to have a beer with most? 


Scorpio’d. Funny, but missed the point so only a 5 out of 10 on the Scorpio scale. The point is not that there can’t be disagreement and discussion on issues. It’s that these two individuals refuse to acknowledge that the case for M4A has not yet been made, even within the group that is supposedly on the same side. Argue for it all they want, but don’t be an immature punk by calling everyone Republicans that don’t agree with them. It’s childish and doesn’t advance their case. It just makes them look dumb.
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16 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

DMRegister will be the more substantiative Iowa poll that's supposed to come out this week, but here's a new one.

 

 

alittleracist.gif re Kamala?

what was the racial component ratio of those polled, I'm guessing 90% Iowan whitey?

Iowa demographics as a whole:

Race Population 
White 2,824,197
Black or African American 106,762
Asian 71,178
Two or More Races 62,734
Some Other Race 39,527
American Indian and Alaska Native 10,791
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 2,913

 

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population/

Edited by zork
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33 minutes ago, zork said:

alittleracist.gif re Kamala?

what was the racial component ratio of those polled, I'm guessing 90% Iowan whitey?

Iowa demographics as a whole:

Race Population 
White 2,824,197
Black or African American 106,762
Asian 71,178
Two or More Races 62,734
Some Other Race 39,527
American Indian and Alaska Native 10,791
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 2,913

 

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population/

Key words - "Focus on Rural America"

Do you know a lot of minorities in rural America? 

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2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

It's Iowa, Zork. 

But Kamala dropped 13 points in this poll, so she was doing well in the previous version. 

 

Her campaign is cooked.  I don't even know what it would take to resuscitate it.  An Obama or Hillary endorsement would be the only thing (maybe?) and neither is going to jump into this race and place their thumb on the scale in September 2019.  

This race right now is

Tier 1
Biden
Warren

Tier 2
Bernie

Tier 3
Kamala
Pete
Yang

Tier 4
Amy
Booker
Beto
Castro

Tier 5
FUCK OFF AND GET OUT OF THIS GOD DAMN RACE YOU GRIFTERS

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3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Warren has made this a tight two-horse race.  I like her chances to pick up Bernie votes once he falls out.  She’s got more upside at this point.

She's pretty much snatched Harris' college-educated white supporters.  The question is, can she gobble up the college-educated white liberals from Pete and then make significant inroads with non-college educated white moderates/conservatives within the party (aka, Biden voters), WWC (Biden/Bernie voters), and draw any significant chunk of black voters from Biden and what's left of Kamala. 

Time will tell.  There's a reason why Biden is still the favorite - his WWC base in Iowa is keeping him in front there and his black base is keeping him with a huge lead in the southern primaries. 

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The only way Biden loses is if tapes come out about his alleged interference with Ukraine/Russian(and kickbacks for his son)  via some new twitter name, that is all the rage with Dems doing it to R's, like BolshevikBiden, or BoleslavBiden, or somesuch.

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Wait do people still think we aren't going to go a brokered convention?  There's no way any of the top 3 get enough delegates to win outright. 

Even if that happened, I'm confident Warren would be the nominee.  If it's a three-way race, Biden stands out as the obvious outsider.  Bernie's supporters are much more in-line with Warren than they are Biden, and Warren and Bernie are good friends.  At some point, Bernie will realize that he's either got to drop out and support Warren, or Biden will be the nominee.  I think he's practical enough to do the right thing.

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11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bookmarked

All Biden has to do is fake cramps along the way so the trainers can come out and resuscitate his potentially flat lining, yet still leading, poll numbers.  Other Dems will complain about the press continually resuscitating thus keeping his name in the news and off the brain addled gaffes and Ukraine favoritism for his son while part of the Obama Administration. #BolshevikBiden

Edited by zork
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28 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Another poll...I think the "Not Sure / Never Heard Of" numbers are a big advantage for Warren, because it's clear that once people get to know her, they come away with a favorable impression.

chart-candidates.jpg

Those are fucking huge "unsure/unheard of" numbers for everyone outside the top 3.

My advice to Harris: get really personal.  Stop being rehearsed and canned.  She feels inauthentic.  She could handle a 180 by just being authentic, telling her story about growing up bi-racial and leaning into her progressive prosecutor record.  In her personal events, she does a lot better.  But the TV lights come on and she just seizes up.  You know why people like Liz, Biden and Bernie?  They're authentic.  Bernie is who he is.  Uncle Joe is a persona and Joe is embracing it 100%.  Liz is running through crowds, waving like a dork and drinking tea on Instagram live. 

Edited by Js1
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27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Those are fucking huge "unsure/unheard of" numbers for everyone outside the top 3.

My advice to Harris: get really personal.  Stop being rehearsed and canned.  She feels inauthentic.  She could handle a 180 by just being authentic, telling her story about growing up bi-racial and leaning into her progressive prosecutor record.  In her personal events, she does a lot better.  But the TV lights come on and she just seizes up.  You know why people like Liz, Biden and Bernie?  They're authentic.  Bernie is who he is.  Uncle Joe is a persona and Joe is embracing it 100%.  Liz is running through crowds, waving like a dork and drinking tea on Instagram live. 

I don't think she's capable be of being authentic, which is her problem. She's built her political life around maintaining a facade, which has worked so far but not here.

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Biden’s only electability argument is that he is leading in the polls. It’s not policy, it’s not temperament, it’s not that he’s the best to go up against Trump. It’s only polling.

The beginning of the end for his candidacy begins soon. The minute that Warren jumps him in a major poll, people will start abandoning him. The question then becomes who grabs most of the current Biden voters.

I agree with Hugo that if Warren keeps this momentum it will catapult her to the nomination. 

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