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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread


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Halfway home in June and tip of the cap to not only Gattis, but also Marwin who I don’t think we are fully appreciating this month...
I just laugh now when this thread starts skewering our players.
Those guys are making it really easy for Hinch to rest the big names.

For the month, Marwin is batting .433, SLG .833, OPS 1.333, OBP .500. All tops in the AL (minimum 30 ABs).
Gattis tied with Davis for most HRs (7) and leads in RBIs with 22 (next closest has 16). 22 RBIs in the month...on June 15.
I believe Bagwell holds the club record for most RBIs in a month. 36 in July 2001.

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7 hours ago, WBT said:

Sox knock Paxton out after 2 1/3 and lead 6-3

And Seattle once again rallies to win late, 7-6. They’re now 22-10 in games decided by a single run. As such patterns tend to even out over time, I expect them to cool off soon. Then again, I felt that way when Cano went out. 

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3 hours ago, Gut Wagon said:

And Seattle once again rallies to win late, 7-6. They’re now 22-10 in games decided by a single run. As such patterns tend to even out over time, I expect them to cool off soon. Then again, I felt that way when Cano went out. 

Sometime, like the 2016 Rangers, it doesn't even out until the next year. 

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11 minutes ago, ckhorn said:

The bullpen won't last. Servais is wearing them out.

This came up in Jay Jaffe's chat this week on Fangraphs:

Nick: Is there a measurable skill involved with winning a ton of one-run games like the Mariners or is it 100% pure dumb luck?

 

 
12:35
Jay Jaffe: I wrote about this the other day. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-al-west-and-one-run-success/. Significant correlation regarding bullpen WAR and 1-run success, and I think there was a 2013 study that suggested team BB, K (both pitching) and ISO (hitting) had some connection.

In short, some team charactersitics may make them a bit more likely to perform better than average in tight games; however, I saw another stat that Seatlle's hitting in clutch/leverage situations thus far has far exceeded its performance in other situations. That doesn't seem like a "skill" - that seems like it is bound to even out. 

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I think it's definitely luck/variance that we only have a 0.5 game lead despite a 119 run lead in run differential.  Depending on which projection you look at, Fangraphs has that we should be 2-5 wins better and Seattle should be 7 wins worse.  Most likely we're due for big positive regression. 

But sometimes these things last all season.  In 2016, the Rangers won the division, Seattle finished 9 back, and we finished 11 back.  The Rangers had +8 run differential, Seattle had +61, and the Astros had +23.  The Rangers went 36-11 in 1-run games.  All year I thought the regression was coming and it never did.

Edited by WBT
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1 hour ago, ckhorn said:

Surprising that Hinch used both Peacock and McHugh yesterday considering Kuechal is pitching today.

If he'd known he was going to burn them, why did we send Guduan back to the minors? Unless he plans to use White as the A's used Smolinski. Let's hope not.

Or maybe DK will realize he doesn't have the usual backup today and will pitch great for a change. (I can't believe I just typed that, but it seemed halfway plausible when I started the sentence.) 

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