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S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?


satyanash

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"crazy turnovers"

Turnover #1 - Kelly Bryant is not actually a good runner. He keeps and gets absolutely popped by a Wyoming DB. Helmet on the ball as Bryant does not have two hands on it going into traffic. Not a crazy turnover.
Turnover #2 - Missed handoff. This isn't something Wyoming did to earn a turnover, but it is absolutely something Missouri did wrong to lose a turnover. Furthermore, it could have been a TD, should have been nothing, and ended up a field goal (Wyoming CB is slower than Bryant so would have been a TD against a team with athletes, but Bryant committed a horse collar on the tackle so they got a field goal instead of nothing). 3 points from that fiasco was a perfectly fair result.
Turnover #3 - One play after a blatant pushoff by their tight end, Bryant scrambles, heads to his left, stops, throws across the field into the end zone where there are three Wyoming defenders. It is intercepted. This is not a crazy turnover, this is a horrific play that rightfully ended in a turnover.

Connelly is correct that 2 of the 3 turnovers were not a result of anything good that Wyoming did. However, all three were the result of terrible play by Missouri.
 

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Having receivers who can block really well has turned into one of college football's most underrated and useful luxuries, but blocking LSU's defensive backs and linebackers is different than blocking Louisiana Tech's. The Tigers allowed only 5 yards per completion on passes thrown behind the line last season -- they allowed only 6.8 on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line.

Texas' short passing game could be the most important factor Saturday. The Longhorns might not be able to run the ball efficiently, both because LSU's defensive front is awesome and because, thanks to injuries, the UT running back corps consists of basically Keaontay Ingram and a bunch of dudes who moved from other positions. Since this is a big game, it's safe to assume Ehlinger will be prepared to carry the ball 15 to 20 times himself, but LSU's run front might be the best Texas has faced under Herman.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27542102/the-four-keys-lsu-texas-everything-else-watch-week-2

If we cannot run the ball effectively then I do not see us winning or even covering the spread.

 

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3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27542102/the-four-keys-lsu-texas-everything-else-watch-week-2

If we cannot run the ball effectively then I do not see us winning or even covering the spread.

 

Stop being a shitbird, Bill.

What if LSU can’t run the ball effectively? Something they failed to do unlike Texas...even though Texas barely tapped into its QB run game.

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7 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

Stop being a shitbird, Bill.

What if LSU can’t run the ball effectively? Something they failed to do unlike Texas...even though Texas barely tapped into its QB run game.

I think LSU will struggle moving the ball through the A/B gaps.  However, I have little faith that we can stop them from dinking/dunking and working the edge, where LaTech had a lot of success.  

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1 minute ago, HOOK'EMHOOAH said:

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Why dont you try not being a whiny little bitch?

I'm not assuming that we won't be able to run the ball, particularly with Sam getting 10-20 carries or whatever.  I don't know how that will play out.  However, if we can't then yeah...we're probably not going to win.  

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On 9/3/2019 at 3:52 PM, Fozzz said:

hmm...so Texas jumps nine spots from their 32nd preseason raking even though they only managed a 1.0 YPP margin over the 86th SP+ (preseason) ranked team?   Smacks of bias.  

 

5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

You don't think I'm a Texas fan or do you just dislike it when fans use the term "we" when referring to a team?

Hmm...

5 hours ago, Fozzz said:

It's a good thing most Texas fans are not like the crybaby bitches posting itt.  

You’ve been negging everyone that disagrees with you.

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The first post was tongue-in-cheek and I don't see how being a Texas fan is inconsistent with not wishing to be embarrassed by the petulant behavior of other Texas fans irl.  If anything, the third post implies the opposite of your contention.  Also, while I don't normally neg, I have made an exception for this thread due to being bombarded with negs from whiny brats incapable of countenancing an opinion varying from their own.  

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2 hours ago, Fozzz said:

The first post was tongue-in-cheek and I don't see how being a Texas fan is inconsistent with not wishing to be embarrassed by the petulant behavior of other Texas fans irl.  If anything, the third post implies the opposite of your contention.  Also, while I don't normally neg, I have made an exception for this thread due to being bombarded with negs from whiny brats incapable of countenancing an opinion varying from their own.  

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BC has his favorite picks against the lines up. You don’t have to click. SP+ says:

LSU -6 over @Texas. I doubt it

Marshall +11 @Boise

Cincinnati +16 @tOSU

@Michigan -22.5 over Army

Aggy +17.5 @Clemson. I doubt this, too

@Colorado +2.5 and straight up over Nebraska

Diaz -5.5 @Mack Brown. Redemption beats letdown or HC over asst 2.0?

UNT +3.5 @Buechele

@Washington -14 over Cal

@USC -1 over Stanford. Which one is tanking faster?

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On 9/6/2019 at 8:54 PM, Magus Ossis said:

BC has his favorite picks against the lines up. You don’t have to click. SP+ says:

LSU -6 over @Texas. I doubt it

Marshall +11 @Boise

Cincinnati +16 @tOSU

@Michigan -22.5 over Army

Aggy +17.5 @Clemson. I doubt this, too

@Colorado +2.5 and straight up over Nebraska

Diaz -5.5 @Mack Brown. Redemption beats letdown or HC over asst 2.0?

UNT +3.5 @Buechele

@Washington -14 over Cal

@USC -1 over Stanford. Which one is tanking faster?

Waylp. 

Anyway, we're #24 now.

 

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On the topic of out-there analytics ratings, Sagarin is really high on the B12 after two games. Has it rated right there as the best conference in college football. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Has Baylor at 10, Tech at 19, OSU at 21, K State at 25, and OU/Texas about where you'd expect. I'd imagine it's a function of playing cupcake games but it's interesting none the less.

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42 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

On the topic of out-there analytics ratings, Sagarin is really high on the B12 after two games. Has it rated right there as the best conference in college football. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Has Baylor at 10, Tech at 19, OSU at 21, K State at 25, and OU/Texas about where you'd expect. I'd imagine it's a function of playing cupcake games but it's interesting none the less.

Holyyyyy shit Baylor. That's something alright.

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6 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Honestly, 24th feels about right to me.  Does anyone really think Texas is currently much better or worse than that?  It's possible of course, but all available evidence seems to indicate otherwise.  

Lose to the #6 team in country by a single score, including scoring on every second half drive and forcing the other team to fake cramps every other play to get a rest -> "All evidence says this team is 24th"

Edited by texifornia
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