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CFP '19-- Auburn the nexus?

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4 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Georgia loss is South Carolina at home and bama loss is LSU at home.

might as well have just left bama at #4. 

Exactly

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2 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Lulz who did Oklahoma piss off? Not only is their resume not any worse than Oregon, Utah, and PedoState, but they would also pound the bag out of all three. 

They didn't pound the bag out of their last 2 opponents K-state and Iowa State. They were lucky to even win 1 of those (and just by 1 point)

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7 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

They didn't pound the bag out of their last 2 opponents K-state and Iowa State. They were lucky to even win 1 of those (and just by 1 point)

Fair enough, but I'll believe the Pac when I actually see it happen. 

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I guess it has more to do when you lose and not “body of work”. If it’s body of work then bama should be #4 over Georgia.


What is Bamas body of work? UGA beat ND and UF.

It’s about what I expected except I don’t get the Utah love. They have less ranked wins and more losses than Minnesota. Also don’t get Utah over PSU or really OU.

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7 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

What is Bamas body of work? UGA beat ND and UF.

It’s about what I expected except I don’t get the Utah love. They have less ranked wins and more losses than Minnesota. Also don’t get Utah over PSU or really OU.

 

Both Bama and Geogia have ass resumes.  My model actually has Georgia's SOR below Bama's, but they are the two lowest 1-loss teams.

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How the hell is Utah ranked ahead of Minnesota? They lost to a 6-4 USC squad (Minnesota is unbeaten) and their only ranked win, Arizona State, is now 5-4 (Minnesota beat 8-1 Penn State). What the heck is the justification?

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All I can say is I’d have killed it this bullshit in 2011 as an okstate fan.  I’m sure they’d have still screwed us over but there’d have been an opportunity vs just rematch of the century crap that no one watched.  

Edited by Homercles

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4 minutes ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

So basically Bama is gonna backdoor their way back into the CFP without the risk of losing to a top 5 team, risking injury, and a extra week of preparation?

If UGA knocks off LSU in the SEC title game, both will make it to the playoffs over 'Bama. No-loss scenario for the SEC, they're guaranteed two of UGA/LSU/Bama in.

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Bama gets by purely on name, coach and past wins nowadays. I mean the trend has been there for years but before you could at least sort of justify it by them still seeming like one of the top 4 teams in the country. This year they simply have no business being in the playoff imo without a shit ton of teams losing between now and Dec. Their last two big games they got their asses kicked. The committee just refuses to acknowledge what is actually going on on the field. Minnesota is 9-0 with a win over the team that was #3 or 4 in last week's rankings. They should be in the top 4 now. Top 5 at worst.

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1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Fair enough, but I'll believe the Pac when I actually see it happen. 

Let's see what they've got though. I don't like the idea of two teams from one conference getting in anyways.

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

 

These clowns are doing nothing more than throwing shit up against the wall. There really is a much simpler solution here.

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1 minute ago, C-Man said:

Let's see what they've got though. I don't like the idea of two teams from one conference getting in anyways.

Yeah, agreed. I just think Oregon/Utah is going to get the shit kicked out of them, but Oklahoma vs LSU is gonna be a hell of a game. That might actually be last possession wins... 

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1 minute ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Yeah, agreed. I just think Oregon/Utah is going to get the shit kicked out of them, but Oklahoma vs LSU is gonna be a hell of a game. That might actually be last possession wins... 

I don't think OU is that good, though. Hurts has come back down to earth some. His last INT versus Iowa State was about as horrific a decision/throw as a QB can make. Defense looks like it's sliding back whence it came prior to this season. They're also getting banged up. Think they're down an OL and Trey Sermon is out for the year.

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2 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Lulz who did Oklahoma piss off? Not only is their resume not any worse than Oregon, Utah, and PedoState, but they would also pound the bag out of all three. 

Utah's defense is damn good. I wouldn't favor Oklahoma over the Utes at this point. 

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. Minnesota is 9-0 with a win over the team that was #3 or 4 in last week's rankings. They should be in the top 4 now. Top 5 at worst.


If somebody put a gun to your head and said pick alabama or minnefuckingsota on a neutral field say in Denver, who do you pick?

Minnesota had the biggest jump in the history of this. They are where they should be. Dont struggle against San Diego state, georgia southern, and Fresno state and you will get your respect.

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UGA at #4 is so fucking stupid. They shouldn't even be top 10. 
Beat florida and ND. Explain how oregon, utah, Minnesota, utah, penn state, and Oklahoma are better than Georgia head to head on a neutral field.

I'll hang up and listen. To jackassery.

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47 minutes ago, markstanco said:


 

 


If somebody put a gun to your head and said pick alabama or minnefuckingsota on a neutral field say in Denver, who do you pick?

Minnesota had the biggest jump in the history of this. They are where they should be. Dont struggle against San Diego state, georgia southern, and Fresno state and you will get your respect.

 

I'm not sold on Bama when it comes to big games on neutral fields any more. I might pick Bama in such a hypothetical match up but I'm past the point where it would really surprise me if Minnesota were to win such a game. Winning matters though and Minnesota impressed with their win over psu while Bama fell behind 33-13 at halftime and was lucky to only lose by 5 tbh. The Bama mystique under Saban is gone for me at this point.

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I'm not sold on Bama when it comes to big games on neutral fields any more. I might pick Bama in such a hypothetical match up but I'm past the point where it would really surprise me if Minnesota were to win such a game. Winning matters though and Minnesota impressed with their win over psu while Bama fell behind 33-13 at halftime and was lucky to only lose by 5 tbh. The Bama mystique under Saban is gone for me at this point.
Okay, gun to your head again.

Alabama has 4 and 5 star players. Minnesota has juco and 2 star players at best. They beat Penn state this one weekend like perdue beat Ohio state this one weekend.

Why this is a conversation about Minnesota being better than alabama is absolutely insane. And I HATE alabama. I hate the espn spin on them. I hate that they aren't out of the picture. But alabama will crush them.

But it is November 12th and who cares. Ohio state will beat them by 30.

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Okay, gun to your head again.

Alabama has 4 and 5 star players. Minnesota has juco and 2 star players at best. They beat Penn state this one weekend like perdue beat Ohio state this one weekend.

Why this is a conversation about Minnesota being better than alabama is absolutely insane. And I HATE alabama. I hate the espn spin on them. I hate that they aren't out of the picture. But alabama will crush them.

But it is November 12th and who cares. Ohio state will beat them by 30.

Minnesota resume this season is better than Alabama. That’s why. But Alabama is getting a pass.

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15 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:


Minnesota resume this season is better than Alabama. That’s why. But Alabama is getting a pass.

his question was why there's a conversation about Minnesota being better than Alabama, not why they deserve to be ranked ahead of them, meaning "which team do you think is better". 

I've seen Alabama and Minnesota play twice. Alabama appears to have a better football team than Minnesota. I expect Alabama would beat them pretty severely about the head and neck if they could play this year. 

Minnesota has a better win-- Penn State-- but not even a better resume, per se, because they've looked so fucking terrible at times. That Georgia Southern game should count against them almost as much as Penn State counts for them. That's a huge red flag to me in terms of their validity as an actual national contender. I think they're in the Michigan State mold, a solid team that lacks overall talent and can compete in the Big Ten but will get its anus rammed up around its ears the first time it steps on a field with a legitimate national championship caliber team from outside their region. 

I feel like some people don't think they should be allowed to say "I think Team A is better than Team B based on observation" if there isn't what passes for objective evidence.

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Minnesota resume this season is better than Alabama. That’s why. But Alabama is getting a pass.
Which team is better?

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8 hours ago, markstanco said:

Okay, gun to your head again.

Alabama has 4 and 5 star players. Minnesota has juco and 2 star players at best. They beat Penn state this one weekend like perdue beat Ohio state this one weekend.

Why this is a conversation about Minnesota being better than alabama is absolutely insane. And I HATE alabama. I hate the espn spin on them. I hate that they aren't out of the picture. But alabama will crush them.

But it is November 12th and who cares. Ohio state will beat them by 30.

You'll call it a distinction without a difference but Minnesota's starters are overwhelmingly 3 and 4 stars. They do have a few 2 and below stars on Defense (one being Antwan Winfield Jr- but most will agree that he's just a little better than that).

You and the committee seem to by employing the intuitive  "Alabama is better because of course they're better" approach.  I'm not even saying you're wrong.  Gun to the head, I'd pick Alabama in a head to head- but I'd have taken Penn State last week too.  The problem (and why I think many are frustrated), is that the intuitive approach, while often correct, is difficult to defend.  The committee can't say "well honestly, record be dammed, we think team A is just better, because, well, they just are." So they have to figure out how to justify it, which exposes/ creates the contradictions that people are bringing up now.

Ultimately, I don't think that the Alabama v Minnesota thing matters much.  If MN wins out (highly doubtful), they're in.

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9 hours ago, markstanco said:

Beat florida and ND. Explain how oregon, utah, Minnesota, utah, penn state, and Oklahoma are better than Georgia head to head on a neutral field.

I'll hang up and listen. To jackassery.

All those teams except Minnesota would be favored.

Georgia lost to a team that won't make a bowl, and every single one of those teams has a win better than UF (well, Penn St might not in Iowa.)

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1 hour ago, markstanco said:
1 hour ago, Bevo VIII said:

Minnesota resume this season is better than Alabama. That’s why. But Alabama is getting a pass.

Which team is better?

If Alabama lost 3 games we’d probably still say they’re better than Minnesota.

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1 hour ago, markstanco said:
1 hour ago, Bevo VIII said:

Minnesota resume this season is better than Alabama. That’s why. But Alabama is getting a pass.

Which team is better?

I hate when this question gets asked.. It doesn't matter who i think is better or who anybody in that room "thinks" is better. You must take that out of the equation and rank based on what they have accomplished.  To this point Alabama and Minnesota have played terrible schedules with the exception of LSU and Penn St which Minn won and Bama lost. 

0 Reason Minnesota should be ranked behind Alabama. If Minnesota was named Michigan and Bama was named Vanderbilt does anybody believe MIchigan would be 8 and Vandy 5? No chance. 

Following Teams have 0 wins vs current Top 25 teams 

#3 Clemson

#5 Bama

#6 Utah 

#7 Oregon

#23 Iowa

 

Another joke is Clemson, Utah and Oregon are going to walk into Conf Championship game weekend without beating 1 ranked team all year.  Clemson will have 0 wins vs Top 25 teams and Utah and Oregon will only have 1 and thats will only be the winner of the game. 

Do i "think" they will win games vs Team X? I have no clue and we wont even find out until the CFP

This entire thing really needs expansion or just go back to the top 2 because this playoff system is a joke. 

/rant

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8 minutes ago, JBJ said:

They might not ever be ranked, but Washington is a top 25 team.

Based on what exactly? They lost to Stanford and Cal plus the only 2 ranked teams they played. Sounds to me like a middle of the pack team in a terrible conference. 

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30 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

It doesn't matter who i think is better or who anybody in that room "thinks" is better. You must take that out of the equation and rank based on what they have accomplished.

Why?

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55 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

If Alabama lost 3 games we’d probably still say they’re better than Minnesota.

Now that would be pretty unfair. 

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3 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Why?

Because then on the field results mean nothing if we are just going to base it on opinions. 

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58 minutes ago, Bill Lumbergh said:
2 hours ago, markstanco said:
Which team is better?

If anyone asked you prior to the Penn State game, would you have said Minnesota was better?

Everybody not named PJ Fleck knew PSU was the better team, including Vegas. 

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Just now, joeycovers said:

Because then on the field results mean nothing if we are just going to base it on opinions. 

I don't think they mean nothing. I just don't agree that because Minnesota beat Penn State, and because Alabama doesn't have what we perceive to be as strong a win as that, that we can or should conclusively say "therefore Minnesota is better than Alabama". I've watched them both play, I think Alabama would beat Minnesota by three touchdowns. 

Your way might be more fair than mine. I have just watched a lot of Big Ten teams grope their way to ten wins and then get shithammered when put on the field against a competent out-of-region opponent, and having watched Minnesota's game against Georgia Southern, that's the kind of team they look like to me. 

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I don't think they mean nothing. I just don't agree that because Minnesota beat Penn State, and because Alabama doesn't have what we perceive to be as strong a win as that, that we can or should conclusively say "therefore Minnesota is better than Alabama". I've watched them both play, I think Alabama would beat Minnesota by three touchdowns. 
Your way might be more fair than mine. I have just watched a lot of Big Ten teams grope their way to ten wins and then get shithammered when put on the field against a competent out-of-region opponent, and having watched Minnesota's game against Georgia Southern, that's the kind of team they look like to me. 


Which is the inherent problem and why even a 4-team playoff field isn’t enough. There are not enough commonalities in anybody’s schedules to even remotely discuss who is better until they meet on the field.

For this reason, I like a model where all five conference champs get auto berths — much easier to determine the best (at least a fair winner with no beauty contest) of a 10, 12 or 14 team conference — with a couple at-large berths tossed in. Then every P5 team knows when the season starts that if they win their conference, they’re in no questions asked. I don’t see how that wouldn’t be preferable.

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Minnesota was a 7 point Home Dog to Penn St. Nobody outside that state expected them to win. If they played again this weekend they would be underdogs again. Point is on field results should trump everything. 

I remember watching 02 Ohio St get "lucky" week after week. Then they were matched up against big bad Miami and everyone including the oddsmakers thought it would be a blowout. They found a way to win (controversially). Every since then i give teams credit for finding ways to win games like that. Of course sometimes teams get exposed but until then when all else is equal as long as that loss column has a 0 that means more for me. 

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14 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

If LSU wins out, I think a conference champion gets in over Bama. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking...

nick saban cfp 2019 GIF by ESPN

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Just now, joeycovers said:

Every since then i give teams credit for finding ways to win games like that.

it sounds like we each have our biases. some are more harmful than others, but to C-Man's point, there isn't some shining objective method we would all agree can fix things

The only way to overcome those biases is to dilute them as best we can by expanding the playoff. If I have to pick four teams, I'm probably going to buttfuck Minnesota. If it's eight or 12, then I can include Minnesota and let their first-round opponent buttfuck them.

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3 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

it sounds like we each have our biases. some are more harmful than others, but to C-Man's point, there isn't some shining objective method we would all agree can fix things

The only way to overcome those biases is to dilute them as best we can by expanding the playoff. If I have to pick four teams, I'm probably going to buttfuck Minnesota. If it's eight or 12, then I can include Minnesota and let their first-round opponent buttfuck them.

I mean i dont "think" Minnesota is a top 4 team.. But until Iowa, Wisconsin or Ohio St beat them im giving them benefit of the doubt.

 

Here is what i want to see happen just for the chaos

 

 

2 Loss Uga beats unbeaten LSU in SEC title game

1 loss P12 Champ

1 Loss big 12 champs

1 loss Minn beat Undefeated Ohio St

Clemson upset in ACC title game

I know some of it is far fetched but the crying and begging from all of these teams would be great. 

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