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2020 Dems: New Hampshire (thank god, a normal primary)

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1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

If enough "moderate" candidates stay in the race long enough he may just win. 

It's like people who have actual college degrees are too stupid to read polls. We're moving to a state where Pete and Amy both have weaker support and Biden literally is about to skip it to try and solidify his base in SC

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4 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Bernie didn't benefit from Warren's cratering tonight.  There's no way he's going to be the nominee.  He's got a hard cap of support.  Is there a betting platform where you can short his candidacy?

I tend to agree and his cap seems to be even lower than 2016 because he picked up a sizable chunk of anyone but Hillary then.

But Trump also had a ceiling in the low to mid 40s but no one could consolidate the vote against him.

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Just now, GSU&UT said:

It's like people who have actual college degrees are too stupid to read polls. We're moving to a state where Pete and Amy both have weaker support and Biden literally is about to skip it to try and solidify his base in SC

Yet another disappointment win for Bernie?

#Sad

Bernie should drop out already.

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2 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Bernie didn't benefit from Warren's cratering tonight.  There's no way he's going to be the nominee.  He's got a hard cap of support. 

Do find your first sentence interesting. It seems to be primarily Klobuchar that benefited, which is a weird pivot for the college educated female voters that appear to have driven that. Im not really sure what to make of that.

As to your second point - uh, are you familiar with who the POTUS is and how we got here? I'd be careful with that assertion.

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Just now, Js1 said:

What a douche canoe. 

Really? He came out before the final votes were tallied, knowing that Bernie would most likely prevail even though it wasn't officially called. 

People have lost their minds. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

What a douche canoe. 

The line about admiring Bernie since he (Pete) was a high school student was so shady.

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Just now, Calihorn said:

Nice to know the results of the election the night of, right guys?

“D primary tonight had no suspense. Sad!”  - Trump

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1 minute ago, WBT said:

The line about admiring Bernie since he (Pete) was a high school student was so shady.

Yes, complimenting Bernie Sanders is an asshole move. 

 

Edited by Hank Kingsley

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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Yes, complimenting Bernie Sander is an asshole move. 

 

I’m telling you the Bernie Bros are becoming as bad as Trump supporters.

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Do find your first sentence interesting. It seems to be primarily Klobuchar that benefited, which is a weird pivot for the college educated female voters that appear to have driven that. Im not really sure what to make of that.

As to your second point - uh, are you familiar with who the POTUS is and how we got here? I'd be careful with that assertion.

I think you are probably right.  I'm a college educated male who's in the "woman" lane.  I'm team Klobuchar or Warren, and there seems to be more press advancing this theory.

As to the second point, Trump is a talented divider.  I think his unique abilities to divide helped him ensure no one could consolidate the non-Trump vote in the 2016 primary.  That, and the fact that Republican's weren't more than lukewarm about any of their options in 2016.  I'd say at this point that all/any of Amy, Pete, and Joe could and will consolidate the center-left when attrition calls for the other 2.  I don't think the 3 of them have a continued source of money in middling performance to drag this fight out far enough to allow Bernie to hoover up delegates and the nomination.  I could be wrong, though.

Nonetheless, I'm not for Bernie, but I'll support him in November if it's him.

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NH 2016 primary Sanders got over 152k votes over HRC.  Tonight he’s at 65k with 86% of vote in.  I suppose there’s different layers to it, but it’s striking nonetheless re how the primaries will continue to unfold.

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Just now, triplehorn said:

NH 2016 primary Sanders got over 152k votes over HRC.  Tonight he’s at 65k with 86% of vote in.  I suppose there’s different layers to it, but it’s striking nonetheless re how the primaries will continue to unfold.

So you don't know how this actually works huh?

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1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

I’m telling you the Bernie Bros are becoming as bad as Trump supporters.

Who do you want on your side in the general election? An army of assholes that will troll people incessantly or a bunch of mushy supporters that are okay with any centrist canddiate?

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Unofficial delegate count is now 

Pete 23 (+9)

Bernie 21 (+9)

Warren 8

Amy 7 (+6) 

Biden 6

Edited by Js1

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2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I’m telling you the Bernie Bros are becoming as bad as Trump supporters.

Bernie Bros are a fucking embarrassment to the "Democrat" party.

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Pivoting a bit...

What a massive strategic error by Warren to warmly embrace Klobuchar at recent debates. Talking about how "women win" and she and Amy were the only ones on stage never to lose an election. I think Liz thought Klob wasn't a real threat, but the reality is she propped up Amy and made her viable. Klob took full advantage with a strong showing in Iowa which propelled her in NH. 

 

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1 minute ago, mchookem said:

i like how they are all "vote blue no matter who" tonight... they all need to keep that up!

I was going to say the same thing. Good to see that message spread.

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1 minute ago, mchookem said:

i like how they are all "vote blue no matter who" tonight... they all need to keep that up!

They all signed pledges before this started, so this was always bound to be the case. There will not be a Cruz-in-Cleveland moment.

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3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Who do you want on your side in the general election? An army of assholes that will troll people incessantly or a bunch of mushy supporters that are okay with any centrist canddiate?

The problem is that if Bernie doesn’t get the nom (entirely feasible at this point) his supporters sit out and get Trump re-elected.  

Edited by TexEx15

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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Pivoting a bit...

What a massive strategic error by Warren to warmly embrace Klobuchar at recent debates. Talking about how "women win" and she and Amy were the only ones on stage never to lose an election. I think Liz thought Klob wasn't a real threat, but the reality is she propped up Amy and made her viable. Klob took full advantage with a strong showing in Iowa which propelled her in NH. 

 

So exhibit F that Warren’s political instincts fucking suck? DNA test, “I’m with Bernie until im not,” Bernie told me a woman couldn’t win, I love Amy! 

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1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

The problem is that if Bernie doesn’t get the nom (entirely feasible start this point) his supporters sit out and get Trump re-elected.  

I think if Bernie is leading in delegate count but doesn't have a majority of delegates and doesn't win the nomination then you see this, I don't think the DNC is going to commit suicide. If he isn't somehow then I'm much less worried and I'll vote for whoever the nominee is.

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2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

The problem is that if Bernie doesn’t get the nom (entirely feasible at this point) his supporters sit out and get Trump re-elected.  

I think that is total and complete and utter bullshit.  Bernie is going to die before the next election so who will be their hero?  There is nothing for them to gain from sitting it out. 

And the assholes who vote for Trump are getting him reelected.  I'd blame them first, then the Dem who is not running for not selling themselves to the Bernie folks. 

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7 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Who do you want on your side in the general election? An army of assholes that will troll people incessantly or a bunch of mushy supporters that are okay with any centrist canddiate?

I got pieces of Bernie Bros guys in my stool.

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Looking at clusters of support, I think there's a decent case to be made that Bernie is the Dem's best shot at beating Trump.  He's killing it with the non-college whites and has the two fork road to victory: Turnout AND winning Obama-Trump votes in the swing states.  All the other Dems probably are reliant on turnout in the general election, which hopefully is enough.

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8 minutes ago, mchookem said:

i like how they are all "vote blue no matter who" tonight... they all need to keep that up!

Indeed.  Would I vote Sanders in the general?  Sure.  Biden?  Okay.  Warren?  Yep.  Buttigieg?  Why not.  Klobuchar?  Yessir.  Bloomberg?  Affirmative.  

My test is simple: is the Dem presidential candidate a person not named “Donald Trump?”  If the answer is “yes,” then I am voting for that person.

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Just now, Old Freak Nasty said:

I think you are probably right.  I'm a college educated male who's in the "woman" lane.  I'm team Klobuchar or Warren, and there seems to be more press advancing this theory.

As to the second point, Trump is a talented divider.  I think his unique abilities to divide helped him ensure no one could consolidate the non-Trump vote in the 2016 primary.  That, and the fact that Republican's weren't more than lukewarm about any of their options in 2016.  I'd say at this point that all/any of Amy, Pete, and Joe could and will consolidate the center-left when attrition calls for the other 2.  I don't think the 3 of them have a continued source of money in middling performance to drag this fight out far enough to allow Bernie to hoover up delegates and the nomination.  I could be wrong, though.

Nonetheless, I'm not for Bernie, but I'll support him in November if it's him.

Do you mind expanding on the Klobuchar-Warren angle? Not to pry or judge or anything, I am just genuinely curious. I'm not sure how one gets down to those two given how different they are, but clearly it's something that's happened with many voters (and the NYT editorial board). Unless you're being literal and saying you want to vote for a woman?

We'll see in regard to Pete and Klobuchar. They're going to get media and fundraising boosts from Iowa and NH. That said, NV looks favorable for Sanders given labor's strength, the lower education levels, and the larger latino presence. The two biggest prizes on Super Tuesday, TX and CA, are favorable to Sanders. I'm still pretty sure Biden will win SC and he has the cash to make it into March. He stands to do well in the southern states with large proportions of black voters. Most of the delegates are awarded by the end of next month. When the Warren domino falls, he will pick up a significant chunk of her supporters. If anything, it getting messy and Sanders eeking out a narrow majority is looking more and more likely.

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14 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pivoting a bit...

What a massive strategic error by Warren to warmly embrace Klobuchar at recent debates. Talking about how "women win" and she and Amy were the only ones on stage never to lose an election. I think Liz thought Klob wasn't a real threat, but the reality is she propped up Amy and made her viable. Klob took full advantage with a strong showing in Iowa which propelled her in NH. 

 

Didn't know that happened. Hmm.

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14 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Who do you want on your side in the general election? An army of assholes that will troll people incessantly or a bunch of mushy supporters that are okay with any centrist canddiate?

Truth. Those guys may be assholes, but they'd be our assholes.

They are the only group of supporters who could go up against the forthcoming Russian troll/bot army online.

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1 minute ago, berlinerbaer said:

Truth. Those guys may be assholes, but they'd be our assholes.

They are the only group of supporters who could go up against the forthcoming Russian troll/bot army online.

It would be nice if they’d be “our assholes” But they are Bernie’s assholes only. 

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Didn't know that happened. Hmm.

Klobuchar did well in the last 2 debates, so not taking anything away from her. But Warren held the door open, and she just got doubled up by Amy in a state right next door to Massachusetts.  

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

It would be nice if they’d be “our assholes” But they are Bernie’s assholes only. 

What If he wins the nom? Do you plan on staying home? If not, then they would be working towards your desired outcome, regardless of how personal their loyalties lie.

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1 minute ago, berlinerbaer said:

What If he wins the nom? Do you plan on staying home? If not, then they would be working towards your desired outcome, regardless of how personal their loyalties lie.

And if he doesn’t win? Are you going to chastise them like a jerk wad too? 

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And if he doesn’t win? Are you going to chastise them like a jerk wad too? 

I was assuming that he won the nomination because the point of my first post was to make an argument in favor of his electability vs. Trump.

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34 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

So you don't know how this actually works huh?

So what's your algorithm ?  What percent of his 2016 NH primary votes is Bernie supposed to lose for every additional primary candidate? 

Sanders garnered less than half the votes tonight ~70K that he did in 2016 (152K), and after IA and NH, he's losing the delegate count to "the rat".  I'm all ears, I guess.

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11 days until the Nevada caucus. Which is an eternity after a clean result in NH following the Iowa debacle. 

That's a lot of time to talk about the troubles for Biden and Warren. 

 

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So what's your algorithm ?  What percent of his 2016 NH primary votes is Bernie supposed to lose for every additional primary candidate? 
Sanders garnered less than half the votes tonight ~70K that he did in 2016 (152K), and after IA and NH, he's losing the delegate count to "the rat".  I'm all ears, I guess.
Damn. How will the guy who won the most votes in 2 states catch that 2 delegate lead with only 3000 left up for grabs?

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1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Damn. How will the guy who won the most votes in 2 states catch that 2 delegate lead with only 3000 left up for grabs? emoji17.png

The certainty of me voting in the general is greater than it is for you, bud.

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21 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I demand to speak to the manager about these rowdy young people.

Oh fuck off.  Once again, you miss the entire point.  Bernie Bros are a detriment to our country's future, full stop.  

I'll vote for Bernie.  Most Bernie Bros won't vote for a Democrat.  See the problem here?  Of course you don't.  You don't see it as a problem at all.

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mpu


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