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Bone3421

The Blackjack Table

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On 5/10/2018 at 4:53 PM, scottonian said:

Really don't care that Bone is bent out of shape over his lack of understanding basic statistics.

He could also use some help with the difference between effect and affect.

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18 hours ago, Seger78 said:

He could also use some help with the difference between effect and affect.

Im drunk and will have to dbl check but i think its right the way i used it as every card dealt effects the odds 

I guess if we have a disagreement we will argue over if you think i used it as the card influencing or if my intention of saying the odds were effected

Edited by Bone3421

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Every card dealt effects the odds

Which was the point i went to in the counting school of thought when i wanted to mess with people that were saying it didnt change odds...everything changes the odds....i honestly thought everyone caught on by now

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If im wrong on that let me know but google seems to back me up that the odds were the something that was influenced

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The composition of the remaining deck obviously is affected when someone hits or doesn’t. However, you don’t know the effect, and it could just as easily help as hurt even in the short term. In the long term it doesn’t matter and, ultimately, your outcomes are determined by your plays, whether you believe someone else’s misplay took the dealer’s bust card, or whatever. 

Your argument, ultimately, isn’t really any different from claiming an extra guy at the table is causing you to lose because the cards are flowing differently. And it ignores that every win after the misplay was “caused” by the misplay just as surely as the loss you blame on the misplay. You don’t know the order of the cards. The “flow of the cards” is one of the biggest fallacies/superstitions in the game. It simply isn’t relevant to your EV. 

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Affect is a verb, effect is a noun.

Bone reminds me of my friend who likes to look at the burn cards after dealing a hand of hold'em. He thinks that's meaningful. Like, "Look how close we were to this outcome!" I've tried to explain to him why those cards are no more meaningful than the card on the bottom of the deck, or any other unused card, but he doesn't get it. 

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the old "fate of the deck".   if everyone plays the same exact strategy once the shoe is shuffled the winners and losers are already set.  the reality is that that will never happen because there are some close to coin flip situations even in blackjack, depending on the house rules.  The solution......play craps. way more fun.  but not in Oklahoma. 

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On ‎5‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 5:07 PM, Bone3421 said:

now were having fun....and why not acl

In theory everyone would just be simulations. Dont we want everyone to play smart

And it is a teamsport in a sense...every card is connected and every card played changes the odds due to the set number of cards in deck, right?

 

 

Did you post as Ice Cream Float on Shaggy? 

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Lol... I'll make the argument that if you like playing blackjack that you should not get mad, but welcome and encourage players hitting on dealer showing 6....

If everyone who sat down was playing perfect blackjack you would not find very many tables in the casino to play at.  They are the reason you get to play and a large part of the reason you might get a free drink or two while playing...

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Math....how does it work? 


Depends on how the last guy used the calculator

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Got shithoused last night and hit the most ghetto casino in KC.  They opened a new table for me and friend.  Started with 200 at 9pm and was at 1600 around 2am.  Left with 1400 in my pocket.  At one point, the dealer had 5 blackjacks in a row.  I blurted out "someone needs to audit this place!" The pit boss was not amused but I was pissed because I lost 200 in about 2 minutes.  All was good though.

At the end of the night they comped a meal for us.  The shitty thing is that the only eatery open at the place was basically a starbucks kiosk.  My comp totaled out at $4.50 for two bottles of water.

Spent all day hungover as shit, ripped ass in the shower and almost puked from the smell.  I'll save that for the shit your pants or bidet thread.

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On 5/16/2018 at 8:13 PM, Jhawk said:

Got shithoused last night and hit the most ghetto casino in KC. 

Argosy  or Isle Capri?

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On 5/10/2018 at 1:45 PM, crony said:

Fucking winstar blackjack. Bet $100 just me at the table. Get dealt aces with dealer showing 6. I split and get kings on both. Dealer flips card; its an 8, then a fucking 7. So I paid them to lose 2 blackjacks. Ugh fuck that game.

Wait, shouldn't that have been a push?

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34 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Wait, shouldn't that have been a push?

This confused me at first read too.  But he means he paid because you have to pay the commission every hand, so you don't really break even on pushes, you lose the commission.  

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Is the point of playing blackjack at Winstar just to kill some time and have some fun? I’ve never played there so I haven’t run any numbers, but it seems to me that the ante is a deal killer for actually being able to beat the game (short term positive variations aren’t beating the game). 

Even if you game the ante and bet close to, but under $50 and get your average bet over $50, you’re giving up close to 1%. You’re looking at +3 (hi lo) true counts just to be in positive territory at all, even if the rules are otherwise reasonable. Or am I missing something about the Winstar game, other than perhaps very high initial bets (does the ante ever go over $1)?

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Short of counting cards, it’s unbeatable regardless. They’re really just saving you time. A public service.

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17 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Short of counting cards, it’s unbeatable regardless. They’re really just saving you time. A public service.

Yeah, but I do count... just not where there’s no reasonable EV. 

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12 minutes ago, Angry Gorilla said:

They also don't give you free drinks

Yep, the combo of the ante and the no free drinks turns what is an occasional enjoyable diversion for me when in Vegas/NOLA to something I absolutely almost never touch when in Oklahoma.  I have probably played 90 minutes of blackjack in my hundreds and hundreds of hours in Oklahoma casinos, and 60 minutes of that was teaching my GF in advance of a Vegas trip.

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On 5/24/2018 at 3:44 PM, TXSooner518 said:

 my hundreds and hundreds of hours in Oklahoma casinos

You+Big+Dummy.jpg

Edited by slorch

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If I ever open a casino I hope you’ll be my first customer. I’ll even let you start with 12s every hand.

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God, I wish I could take someone with me to double on 12s and maybe take away some of the attention if I split 10s against 4-6 on the right counts. 

Blackjack is mathematically solved. I love it when people plays “feels” because that’s where a lot of the money the casinos pass on to me comes from. 

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Once a year, I would end up at the BJ table but I can never remember the basic strategy especially the cases of splitting and doubling anything else but an 11.  Is there a good website that explain the numbers behind it.  I would remember it better that way than trying to memorize the table .

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I have an app called 21 teacher that I always use on the flight to Vegas to relearn proper strategy. It has the typical chart you’ve probably seen, but can be modified by applying the rules you see in your casino.

 

It then throws out your two cards and dealers up card and you have to pick the correct play. It then moves on to the next hand rather than playing out the current one, which helps reduce any results bias you may have (I always win splitting 12s!). My record is 121 consecutive correct hands, but it’s not uncommon to miss 2-3 out of a hundred plays which makes me mostly but not overly confident once I get to the tables

 

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3 hours ago, Lurch said:

I have an app called 21 teacher that I always use on the flight to Vegas to relearn proper strategy. It has the typical chart you’ve probably seen, but can be modified by applying the rules you see in your casino.

How much does it change the odds for the Wynn rules of “you’ll get 6/5 and like it”?

 

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Odds don’t change, just house edge.

It tells you to enjoy the pool then go somewhere else to gamble

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16 hours ago, Chapo said:

Once a year, I would end up at the BJ table but I can never remember the basic strategy especially the cases of splitting and doubling anything else but an 11.  Is there a good website that explain the numbers behind it.  I would remember it better that way than trying to memorize the table .

Really, at this point those charts are the result of millions of rounds of simulations. I mean, yeah, the fact that you'll stand on a lot of hands when the dealer has a 2-6 makes sense. And you can maybe see why when the dealer's up card is a seven, standing on 16 is probably poor strategy. But a lot of is is simply "because that's what the math says."

Deviations are definitely all about the math. For example, basic strategy, I think, says to hit a 10 vs. a 10. If the (hi lo) true count is 4+, the play is to double rather than hit. It's purely about the composition of the remaining cards and there isn't really anything to do except memorize that stuff.

If you're playing for fun, basic strategy, even with a couple of mistakes per hundred hands, you can get the house edge down to .5% - .7%, and positive variance can have you walking out with some cash in the short term. I didn't bet any money until I could do 1000 hands with 0 errors, while implementing 27 count-based deviations from basic strategy. But I'm not playing for fun.

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On 5/27/2018 at 8:23 PM, TtomTerrific said:

I double down on twelves as a matter of routine. (ie... "when I'm feelin' it) 

 

And am WAY up for my lifetime in blackjack. 

 

IDon'tBelieveYou.gif

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On 5/21/2018 at 1:26 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

Argosy  or Isle Capri?

Isle... I live downtown and it is a 5 minute drive.

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On 5/29/2018 at 9:31 PM, Lurch said:

Odds don’t change, just house edge.

It tells you to enjoy the pool then go somewhere else to gamble 
 

You're not really going to find anywhere in Vegas to gamble if you're running away from 6-5 tables these days. Unfortunately, it seems like all of the big casinos have migrated that way (unless you're in the high limit rooms).

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42 minutes ago, Angry Gorilla said:

I usually see 3-2 tables at >=$25 minimums.  Sometimes they are hidden and you have to ask for them.

I usually never have a problem finding 3-2 at $25 or more.

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4 hours ago, scottonian said:

You're not really going to find anywhere in Vegas to gamble if you're running away from 6-5 tables these days. Unfortunately, it seems like all of the big casinos have migrated that way (unless you're in the high limit rooms).

6:5 is a negative expectation game absent godly rules and penetration with a huge bet spread that brings no heat. Unlikely. 

Then, again, I don’t go to Vegas to gamble, I go to play with an advantage, so my perspective may not be everyone’s. 

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You're not really going to find anywhere in Vegas to gamble if you're running away from 6-5 tables these days. Unfortunately, it seems like all of the big casinos have migrated that way (unless you're in the high limit rooms).


Pro-tip:

Pop over to Ellis Island casino, just behind Bally’s at Flamingo and Koval. Best locals casino with decent betting odds, friendly dealers, and an old school Vegas vibe with an on-site brewery.

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Went to L'Auberge du Lac LC this past weekend.

Sat down at a $25 table with $1500 was betting between $50-$250/hand. Got up to $2ksomething and had a bad run. Now down to $1,600. I bet the entire stack. Get delt AA vs a K. I only have $1,100 in my pocket.

I ask PB if I can go to ATM. He allows it (I'm only person at table).

The entire time I'm thinking to myself "WTF are you doing El Barto?"

Get back to table and asked if they peeked to see what dealer had. They didn't.

Put the money down and said a quick prayer to Allah, Jesus, and Timbuktu.

I get a face on both and dealer had a 9. Holy shit, I couldn't believe it. I only played 2 or 3 more hands and left, I couldn't concentrate.

This is from a later session with $1500 buy in

0fcab5f660bbf71c225e93bc430e3f88.jpg

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On 6/20/2018 at 10:03 AM, iamthepush said:

...Sat down at a $25 table with $1500 was betting between $50-$250/hand. Got up to $2ksomething and had a bad run. Now down to $1,600. I bet the entire stack. Get delt AA vs a K. I only have $1,100 in my pocket.

I ask PB if I can go to ATM. He allows it (I'm only person at table)....

This is why you call ahead and get a marker.  Plus it looks really cool when you ask to draw on it.

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On ‎6‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 12:03 PM, iamthepush said:

Went to L'Auberge du Lac LC this past weekend.

Sat down at a $25 table with $1500 was betting between $50-$250/hand. Got up to $2ksomething and had a bad run. Now down to $1,600. I bet the entire stack. Get delt AA vs a K. I only have $1,100 in my pocket.

I ask PB if I can go to ATM. He allows it (I'm only person at table).

The entire time I'm thinking to myself "WTF are you doing El Barto?"

Get back to table and asked if they peeked to see what dealer had. They didn't.

Put the money down and said a quick prayer to Allah, Jesus, and Timbuktu.

I get a face on both and dealer had a 9. Holy shit, I couldn't believe it. I only played 2 or 3 more hands and left, I couldn't concentrate.

This is from a later session with $1500 buy in

0fcab5f660bbf71c225e93bc430e3f88.jpg

Can I borrow $1000?

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