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2020 Democratic Nominee

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1 minute ago, Thrawn said:

Although damn he is old.

It's a concern, but I don't think it'll turn out to be that big of a deal. He's got the best medical care in the world and he seems even more energetic after his stent procedure than he did before. I wouldn't let that worry you! :)

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The sad thing is, I don't think it ever gets done to a one-on-one race.

I think you'll have Bernie-Bloomberg-NonRichModerate after Super Tuesday. 

Agreed, going to make April and June a complete shitshow

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1 hour ago, mchookem said:

jfc

i'm deep in Trump country, visiting my dad in NE Texas.

he is 'no fan' of Trump, as he puts it. but he watches Fox non-stop, just has it on constantly in the background. 

anyway, he's reachable...he hates all things Clinton with the hate of a thousand burning suns and says he would have voted for Sanders. i doubt it...but i used that as an opening to try and discuss Democratic options last night.

he's a veteren and ALWAYS favors CiC with military experience.

(sidenote: we had a giant screaming fight back in 2012 bc he was railing on Obama 'avoiding' military experience and i let loose a tirade about Romney's FOUR SONS who were eligible who all somehow avoided it as well... let's just say one of us stormed out of my house in anger, and it wasn't me).

anyway...he had NO IDEA Pete was a veteran (or Tulsi for that matter). how is that even possible. fucking Fox. Pete drops that nugget literally daily. he was like 'really?? well i'll be...'

anyway...i tried to talk up Sanders, Pete, and Amy. he asked about the latter two being 'more moderate' lol. didn't have anything terrible to say about any of them..except Biden, who he also hates.

he might be reachable. not likely, but maybe. *sigh*

 

at this point, it's not even about "reaching" these types.  if they aren't a "fan" of trump, just tell him to sit this one out.  that works too.

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5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I would like Peter Paul Buttigieg to speak to his supporters about this abusive and inconsiderate behavior.

#DoBetter

isn't it weird how it's always the bernie fans that seem to have these anecdotal anti-pete stories just happen right around them?  the universe works in funny ways.

"hey this is funny.  we were out canvassing for bern, and this nerdy looking pasty white guy walked by, and we were like, hey, vote bernie, and he said he was a pete guy, and we were super cool and nice to him, and didn't even try to convince him, we just patted him on the back for being involved, and then he turned back to us and was like 'just joking, i would never vote for that rat-faced piece of shit garbage candidate lol'".

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This is my point, dude.

DfB0CZ6W4AA14M4.jpg

It's like the people who claim they are being threatened and harassed by Bernie Bros, but when asked for details they say that asking for details is violence and never are able to provide any. Or, if they do provide details, it's just people mocking or dunking on the Internet in very normal Internet ways.

It's almost like complaining about the misbehavior of supporters is stupid! :)

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How do you know it was a Pete supporter? I hear people do things in a candidates' name all the time even if they support someone else.  Bernie said so. 

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So the Culinary Workers union bosses in Nevada released some details about the horrible harassment and threats and it turns out that it was a bunch of their union members pissed off at them (which... is how unions work) and the #1 guy who went off in the comments was ranting about "illegals" and "Communists".

We're well past the boy who cried wolf point.

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1 hour ago, mchookem said:

jfc

i'm deep in Trump country, visiting my dad in NE Texas.

he is 'no fan' of Trump, as he puts it. but he watches Fox non-stop, just has it on constantly in the background. 

anyway, he's reachable...he hates all things Clinton with the hate of a thousand burning suns and says he would have voted for Sanders. i doubt it...but i used that as an opening to try and discuss Democratic options last night.

he's a veteren and ALWAYS favors CiC with military experience.

(sidenote: we had a giant screaming fight back in 2012 bc he was railing on Obama 'avoiding' military experience and i let loose a tirade about Romney's FOUR SONS who were eligible who all somehow avoided it as well... let's just say one of us stormed out of my house in anger, and it wasn't me).

anyway...he had NO IDEA Pete was a veteran (or Tulsi for that matter). how is that even possible. fucking Fox. Pete drops that nugget literally daily. he was like 'really?? well i'll be...'

anyway...i tried to talk up Sanders, Pete, and Amy. he asked about the latter two being 'more moderate' lol. didn't have anything terrible to say about any of them..except Biden, who he also hates.

he might be reachable. not likely, but maybe. *sigh*

 

He is reachable. Well done. 

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8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

So the Culinary Workers union bosses in Nevada released some details about the horrible harassment and threats and it turns out that it was a bunch of their union members pissed off at them (which... is how unions work) and the #1 guy who went off in the comments was ranting about "illegals" and "Communists".

We're well past the boy who cried wolf point.

The power of the People of the United States of America to root out corruption, wherever they find it. Yes we can!

 

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34 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Agreed, going to make April and June a complete shitshow

The Pod Save America guys were talking about how delegates are awarded and basically said if Bernie wins SC and Nevada he's a virtual lock for the nomination simply because it would make it almost mathematically impossible for others to catch him in delegates unless one of them started beating him in Super Tuesday states by like 60-70%.

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Biden hanging on

(Is me posting all these polls annoying? I'll stop if it is)

Edited by Calihorn

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8 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Wait, why the fuck is Bloomberg being polled for a state he's not on the ballot in?

Image result for thrown it in the trash gif

Poll is not valid. 

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Thanks Cali. 

So, since 2/2 in SC - 

Biden 28% (-9 since 2/2)

Sanders 20% (+6)

Steyer 14% (-5)

Buttigieg 8% (+4)

Klobuchar 7% (+5)

Warren 7% (-2)

Bloomberg 6% (+5)

Gabbard 1% (-1)

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6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Thanks Cali. 

So, since 2/2 in SC - 

Biden 28% (-9 since 2/2)

Sanders 20% (+6)

Steyer 14% (-5)

Buttigieg 8% (+4)

Klobuchar 7% (+5)

Warren 7% (-2)

Bloomberg 6% (+5)

Gabbard 1% (-1)

Except Bloomberg's 6% doesn't count, he's not on the ballot.  

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8 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

On 538's primary model, "nobody wins a majority of delegates" just passed Sanders.  Highest probability so far of a contested convention.

AWWWWWWWW YEAH

Image result for riot g if

DNC 2020 gonna be 1968 but worse. 

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

pete polling ahead of warren in sc is...crazy.

Image result for sink like a rock gif

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54 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

 

 

Biden hanging on

(Is me posting all these polls annoying? I'll stop if it is)

*my

And no, that's not annoying. But my grammar correction is. Hope this helps you see the difference between helpful and annoying posts.

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Except Bloomberg's 6% doesn't count, he's not on the ballot.  

He isn't but that doesn't mean they can't write him in. I doubt 6% of voters do that though, I'd agree.

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

AWWWWWWWW YEAH

Image result for riot g if

DNC 2020 gonna be 1968 but worse. 

Maybe. But 2008 set the standards for protest. Denver built cages as designated protest areas. And we know the billionaire sycophant protestors will not go anywhere without VIP Only entrances. 

2008 was the year of this:

2008+Democratic+National+Convention+Day+

 

https://www.zimbio.com/Democratic+National+Convention+2008/articles/31/Photos+DNC+Protesters+Police

 

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1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

He isn't but that doesn't mean they can't write him in. I doubt 6% of voters do that though, I'd agree.

South Carolina doesn't even allow write-ins, so a not statistically insignificant part of the electorate is a complete wild card.

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Just now, washparkhorn said:

Maybe. But 2008 set the standards for protest. Denver built cages as designated protest areas. And we know the billionaire sycophant protestors will not go anywhere without VIP Only entrances. 

2008 was the year of this:

2008+Democratic+National+Convention+Day+

 

https://www.zimbio.com/Democratic+National+Convention+2008/articles/31/Photos+DNC+Protesters+Police

 

2008 wasn't a contested convention. 

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10 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

On 538's primary model, "nobody wins a majority of delegates" just passed Sanders.  Highest probability so far of a contested convention.

The main factor will be when people drop out and where those votes go when they do. Their predictor has everyone staying in the race to the end. I think at least a couple drop out after Super Tuesday. Their model also massively underestimated Klobuchar in NH. It projected her 5th with 1 delegate. It was reasonably accurate with Bernie and Pete (avg projection of 11 and 9 delegates). 

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The hope is that as people drop out that voters for the drop-outs go to the delegate leader. That's my hope, at least.

If we are going to have a peaceful, unified convention, a clear leader is the best way to get there. If we can't get a first-ballot majority, then a 10+ point plurality then a 2nd round coronation is the next best thing.

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8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The hope is that as people drop out that voters for the drop-outs go to the delegate leader. That's my hope, at least.

If we are going to have a peaceful, unified convention, a clear leader is the best way to get there. If we can't get a first-ballot majority, then a 10+ point plurality then a 2nd round coronation is the next best thing.

I think a lot of it depends on who drops out and when. I think when Biden and Steyer drop the bulk of their votes go to Bloomberg. 

The big wildcard will be how Warren and Klobs fare up to and on Super Tuesday. I think whenever one of them drops the votes go to the other and where they go from there depends on which one drops first. 

I think we’re going to have a 3 horse race between Bernie, Bloomberg, and Pete. 

Edited by heso

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17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2008 wasn't a contested convention. 

You are correct. I buried the larger point: Security in Milwaukee, like Denver in 2008, will be overwhelming. 

Take a look at the security "footprint" for the Convention here: https://www.tmj4.com/news/democratic-national-convention/preliminary-downtown-security-boundaries-released-for-2020-democratic-national-convention

 

Edited by washparkhorn

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6 minutes ago, heso said:

I think we’re going to have a 3 horse race between Bernie, Bloomberg, and Pete. 

Image result for this is my nightmare gif

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2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

I would like Peter Paul Buttigieg to speak to his supporters about this abusive and inconsiderate behavior.

#DoBetter

parking like a douchebag thread is thataway

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48 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

On 538's primary model, "nobody wins a majority of delegates" just passed Sanders.  Highest probability so far of a contested convention.

I think I'll overdose if that happens.

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Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

I think I'll overdose if that happens.

Exactly what 2020 deserves.  Most unpopular president in history and the Dems running around like idiots. 

You love to see it . 

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1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

 

 

Biden hanging on

(Is me posting all these polls annoying? I'll stop if it is)

Old habits die hard, I guess.  I'll be surprised if it shakes out that way, but who knows?  Like someone else said, surprised Pete is up to 8%.  If Warren finishes in mid single digits, I think she'll drop out.  I know Steyer has spent a bunch of money in SC so there's that.

Bernie needs to start polling better, quite frankly.  He has these two wins that we're told are momentous but I don't think I've seen him over 30% in any state poll at this point.  (He was at 10% in that Florida poll from earlier.)  20% in SC really isn't that impressive considering what has been going on.

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1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

Bernie needs to start polling better, quite frankly.  He has these two wins that we're told are momentous but I don't think I've seen him over 30% in any state poll at this point.  (He was at 10% in that Florida poll from earlier.)  20% in SC really isn't that impressive considering what has been going on.

I agree with this.

He finished at 26% in 2016 in South Carolina.  20% in the next major primary state as the "front runner of the race" looks bad.

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2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

In case you don't already know, a contested convention means they can nominate whoever they want and it doesn't have to be any of these people.

HILLARY 2020 BABY

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Seems like the next candidate most likely to withdraw is Warren but seems like if you stay in until South Carolina then you might as well stay in until Super Tuesday. 

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5 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Seems like the next candidate most likely to withdraw is Warren but seems like if you stay in until South Carolina then you might as well stay in until Super Tuesday. 

Mass. is on Super Tuesday.  She's going to hope for a home state win.  Same with Klobs - Minnesota is on Super Tuesday. 

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3 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Seems like the next candidate most likely to withdraw is Warren but seems like if you stay in until South Carolina then you might as well stay in until Super Tuesday. 

I expect everyone that’s made it this far is in until Super Tuesday. Warren could drop if the rumors are true that the campaign is running out of cash. It’s going to take a lot of money to compete in those states. I saw a graphic the other day that I think said Bloomberg has already spent $150 million in Super Tuesday states. Steyer was north of $20 million. Everyone else very little to none. Bernie has plenty of money and the momentum. Biden will be in the fight unless he gets waxed in SC. 

super Tuesday is where we’ll find out if Pete and Klobs are for real or just products of good campaigning in the early states. 

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Mass. is on Super Tuesday.  She's going to hope for a home state win.  Same with Klobs - Minnesota is on Super Tuesday. 

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

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3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

Yep. I don’t see Klobs or Warren in the race by Super Tuesday. 

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4 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

She still has a 7 point lead in Mass. 

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35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I agree with this.

He finished at 26% in 2016 in South Carolina.  20% in the next major primary state as the "front runner of the race" looks bad.

Went out and looked and his poll numbers in three states:

GA -- 14%

FL -- 10%

SC -- 20%

Those are terrible for a supposed front runner.  So far his poll numbers landed about where his actual vote total came in so it's nothing to discount.  He's not turning out anyone.  There is increased turnout in some cases but it's going to other candidates.

I still think a lot of Biden's support is flimsy, so who knows.....

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14 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

Both were just re-elected in 2018.  Plenty PLENTY of time to get right with their voters before 2024. 

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mpu


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