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DayHeGeaux

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Posts posted by DayHeGeaux

  1. Just now, sushihorn said:

    I said Texas should be slightly favored at home.  The early drop on 4th down was the difference in the game.  Got some details wrong but got a lot right.  You didn't have the guts to post any real analysis thus no risk for you.  Just here to criticize other people's work.  I get people like you; you obviously don't understand people like me.

    We're not talking about the outcome. We're talking about LSU moving the ball through the air without being able to run the ball. You specifically said we wouldn't be able to be beat you if we couldn't run the ball. 

    I don't post statistics or present an analysis because I lack sufficient data; there's not a big enough sample size. Something you're have a hard time understanding. But I get it. 

    • Fuck You 6
  2. 10 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

    This a bitch post for real. 99% of the LSU fans are complimenting on a great game and you roll in here like the dingleberry you are. Go douche your mom with bleach. 

    Y'all was talking crazy all week. Never said it wasn't a great game, the people I pointed out were talking shit this whole week about our offense.

    • Fuck You 6
  3. 5 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    Why you talking to me? I said that if you guys can execute that offense like OU or OSU you will put up yards on us. You did and you did. What that talking shit? Oversensitive much?

    And what is this shit about energy? We are all here bitching and moaning with great energy.

    Apologies. Friendly fire. You were pretty objective. 

    • Like 1
    • Fuck You 3
  4. On 7/27/2019 at 12:39 AM, sushihorn said:

    Receivers

    Burrow will have some athletic WRs to throw to; Jefferson at the X position is a tough match up but again like Georgia they don’t have anything equal to what Texas sees weekly in the Big XII at wideout.  That is especially true in terms of reliability and diagnosing the defense.

     

    The receiver corps looks impressive on paper but they are much better athletes than they are pass catchers.  They have more size than Georgia (6’6”, 6’4”, 6’2”, 6’1 and 5’ll” coming back in 2019) but less speed and quickness though still quite good for their size.  They also aren’t great route runners and had a lot of drops last season.  Soph year John Burt is a pretty good comp for much of LSU’s WR unit.  Expect some spectacular catches combined with even more drops and poorly run routes.

     

    Line

    The O-Line is enormous but a bit heavy footed.  Projected starters based on the spring game are #68 Charles at LT (305 lbs), #72 Magee LG (335), #79 Cushenberry C (309), #68 Lewis RG (322) and #76 Deculus RT (321).  Charles is solid but Deculus looks particularly vulnerable.  He’s an OG playing out of position and he got burned regularly by speed rushers.  That is really a bad situation against defenses that like to bring pressure from the outside.  He’s going to be lined up against Ossai quite a bit and things could get ugly unless LSU keeps a TE in to help Deculus pass protect.  The Guards are slow but powerful.  They remind me a lot of Vahe – better run blockers than pass protectors but sometimes give up penetration into the backfield.  Watch some games and you’ll see that there is definitely more than a little bit of Fatball™ being played in Baton Rouge.

     

    The O-Line can make crushing run blocks at times but they also give up an inordinate number of negative plays to opposing defenses.  They gave up 35 sacks in 2018, which is big considering the low number of pass attempts.  The sack ratio of almost 9.0% is appallingly high and one will usually terminate a drive.  They also gave up a total of 89 TFLs.  That was a problem for an offense that relies on running the ball and a negative play is usually a drive killer.  The 54 non-sack TFLs represent a loss on almost 10% of LSU’s rush attempts.  There is a good reason their offense is not very efficient.

     

     

    Coaching and Summary

    The offensive play calling tends to stick stubbornly with the run even when it’s not appropriate.  LSU will often continue to run into stacked fronts and this can be seen in their bowl game.  They faced one of the worst rushing defenses in the country - #117 UCF.  The Knights loaded the box and played man-free coverage behind it.  That meant 1 more defender than the offense could block.  The result was pretty predictable – 3.1 YPC for LSU and they ran the ball 52 times into a brick wall.  When Burrow threw the ball he did pretty well since the coverage was predictable and he could wait for receivers to come open because the defense was prioritizing stopping the run over pass rushing.  Once the LSU coaches saw this happening they should have thrown the ball until UCF backed out and pulled a player out of the box and into coverage.

     

    Orlando has always schemed well against conventional teams that like to run the ball and he’s great at scheming extra players into the box.  How will LSU respond when they line up in 11 personnel and see a 3-2 front with and NB overhang defender inside shade over the slot and a box safety 7 yds off the ball?  Do they treat that as 5 box defenders or 7?  USC couldn’t solve it and neither could Georgia.  One additional factor is that LSU returns a lot from last year’s quality squad.  But I do not expect LSU’s offense to be a big problem unless Texas turns the ball over or gives up big plays in the kicking game.  If that happens enough times they can play with a lead and grind the defense down eventually.  If not I’ve got them down for 13-17 points.

     

    @bigcigar @Walden Ponderer@Deguello @Spider2YBanana @utee94 @Burt Macklin @HtownHorn @GoldAppleCorps @Magus Ossis @Hiphopopotamos @Tex Long @Tex Pete @Zavala @Deej @Pig Bellmont @BigBenBamboozle @Valmy77 @Katfid54 @Dahobbs @Huckleberry @totallynotabuttpirate @Nivek @JBJ @immamac

     

    So about tonight....... Y'all was talking all that shit before the game, and our SEC offense rolled your BIG12 defense with the pass. Where's all that pre-game energy? 

     
    @sushihorn pre-game:
    image.png
     
    @sushihorn post-game:
    image.png
     
    Texas fan pre-game: 
    tenor.gif?itemid=12972106
     
    Texas fans at halftime: 
    texassadness.0.gif
     
    Texas fans post-game:
    ShadowyCoolGrayfox-size_restricted.gif
     
    Me logging back into to SurlyHorns after the game:
    200.gif
     
    Next time I drop knowledge on SurlyHorns: 
    giphy.gif
     
    We beat y'all averaging 3.5 yards/carry:
    giphy.gif

     

    Now wipe me down and hit that Hate button. Cook'em
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    • Haha 1
    • Fuck You 9
  5. 9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    I spoke of trends.  No one but you mentioned absolutes.  ALL the data point in one direction.  I understand your eagerness to reject it but I do not respect that position.  My data tell me that LSU's defense is going to be pretty good.  Does my desire for them to suck override what the numbers are telling me?  Not if I'm going to be intellectually honest.

    When you're analyzing data, you have to account for variables (breaking in a new offense and RBs). Your affirmation is faulty and requires more test/data/games. You may be right, you may be wrong it's too early to tell with any definitiveness.

    A Trend: a general direction in which something is developing or changing. - You haven't allowed for this. 

    While LSU's defense looks promising, I will tell you the same thing let the data play itself out. IT'S ONE GAME IN A NEW OFFENSE.

     

    • Fuck You 2
  6. 1 minute ago, Magus Ossis said:

    So one data point (GSU) isn’t meaningful, and last year doesn’t count. So STFU and go away until you have some data to support an argument.

    I’m not bringing up data points. I’m just saying you don’t have enough data about the 2019 LSU offense.

    • Fuck You 1
  7. 2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    We are looking at ALL relevant data rather than homer wish casting.

    The last really good LSU rushing attack was 3 years ago during the 2016 season.

    In 2017 they were good for 4.79 YPC or #39 nationally so above average but not great.

    In 2018 that fell to 4.01 YPC or #91 nationally.  That's not good.

    In 2019 it has fallen again to 3.70 YPC against weak competition.  This is nothing new.  It's a trend 3 years in the making.

    And what I’m saying is you don’t have enough data to really speak in absolutes. Everything is still TBD.

    • Fuck You 1
  8. 4 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

    I gave you the 2018 stats you dumbfuck. That’s a lot more than one data point for 4 of your OL. Not to mention that 5th OL spot is your biggest weakness, so you’re even less talented than last year.

    It’s a completely different offense. Pro-style vs Spread. 

    Throw the 2018 data points away. Do really believe your coordinators and analysts are watching 2018 LSU tape?

    • Fuck You 1
  9. 3 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

    However, if you're not POSITIVE what you're seeing, a "quick pass" becomes a turnover.

    And this is where we differ.

    I believe Burrow can make the accurate and timely throws. And Texas will get to him a few times with blitz.

  10. 5 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

    Holy shit. You are stupid. Y’all returned 4 of the OL from 2018, so their performance in 2018 is absolutely relevant.

    Find one data point, specific to the OL, that they’re good at run blocking. I’ve given you tons they aren’t. 

    You just assuming LSU is good at running the ball despite all evidence being to the contrary is fucking hilarious. 

    Stop with this data point shit. It’s one game. 

    Its the equivalent to judging your 2018 season based off the Maryland game.

    • Fuck You 2
  11. 12 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

    Got I can't wait for these fuck tard tiger fans to leave Austin after getting their asses beat and cry about how they didn't want to be there. 

    After we beat Texas tomorrow all I want to hear from you is “Good game and Geaux Tigers”

    • Fuck You 3
  12. 2 hours ago, bigcigar said:

    Yeah, you missed the point dumbass. Tech/OU began to run the ball effectively in the 4th quarter comebacks. They didn’t do shit being one dimensional before that. Those efforts were also aided by protect lead ball and offensive ineffectiveness.

    The only way LSU has a chance to win is if they can execute more than one aspect of their offense. They didn’t do that against GSO.

     

    Texas needs their DBs to generate QB pressure and/or a pass rush, which leaves them vulnerable to quick & accurate passing attacks. 

    Where as Alabama generates QB pressure with their DL, freeing up everybody else.

    So you guys are dying on this “LSU can’t run the ball” hill based off of 1 blowout game?

  13. 3 hours ago, bigcigar said:

    Maybe we should break it down differently for the corn dogs.

    Let’s pretend you’re playing big brother (Bama for you). Your offense can’t move the ball effectively on the ground and you’re not even attempting passes further than 10 yards downfield. How do you think Bama responds when all your passes are short or check downs? I’d wager, with their level of athletes, they can probably key in on that and shut it the fuck down.

    It’s not rocket science. You out talented a bad team while running an extemely one dimensional offense. We’ve seen a lot of one dimensional offense in our days. The Colt years would have been far more dominant if we had better oline play and a consistent running game. We required an incredibly accurate, smart QB with 3-4 years in the system to make that offense hum. Even it broke down when the oline couldn’t give him time to throw or move the ball consistently on the ground (Neb, OU 2009).

    OU sucks, but they suck even more when they’re forced to be one dimensional. That’s how Texas built a 21 point lead last October. The weakness of a Leach coached team / pure air raid team is that it’s one dimensional. Baylor got good offensively not from being pass happy, but having a great running game while ripping your heart out with the passing game. 

    Good defenses punish one dimensional offense. Texas struggles defensively last year came against teams that could run the ball and throw the ball.

    If your fatball oline can’t move the ball on the ground, they’re not repeating last week’s performance. Oline play in the run and the pass is the key to spread success.

    If you want to play the pretend game: Can we pretend to be OU, OSU, WV, and TT?

    320.75 passing yards allowed vs these teams. Texas' pass defense was ranked 110th last year. You defense is more bend but don't break vs shutdown.

  14. 1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

     

    I think that LSU's defense is going to be a lot less effective than their fanbase believes - especially late in the game.  Last season they showed a tendency to falter anytime the play count got over 70.  Watch what happened late in games against Bama (79 snaps). Florida (71) and aggy (78 in regulation, 107 total).  Running tempo against a peer means your defense will likely have to defend as many snaps as your offense gets.  Orgeron is targeting 75-80 snaps and I'm sure Tom Herman will be happy to accommodate him.

    Go back and look at how gassed the OL looked even in the 2nd Q against GA So.  LSU has some really overweight linemen on both sides of the ball - especially the OGs and NTs.  What is Ika or Shelvin going to look like after chasing down screens, outside zone and being forced to pass rush  for 10 plays on a drive with no chance to sub out?  Preventing defensive rotation is one reason Herman likes to stick with 11 personnel and play the TE as either a flex or H-back to get different formation looks.

    LSU's defense is 22 deep this year. We couldn't say that last year. If you watched the GA Southern game you saw us sub at literally every position on the field. So late game attrition shouldn't be much of a problem for us this year. 

    "LSU has some really overweight linemen on both sides of the ballLSU has some really overweight linemen on both sides of the ball"

    This is a fallacy. Our OL is actually slightly smaller than OUs. And yes while I would like to see our NTs shed a few pounds, they're highly effective when it comes to SEC play. We're also 3 deep at that position as well. (Shelvin, Ika, Fehoko).

    OU OL Starter Averages: Height = 6'4.8 & Weight = 323.6 lbs

    LSU OL Starter Averages: Height = 6'4.4 & Weight = 321.4 lbs

  15. 4 hours ago, Katfid54 said:

    My post from last week about La Tech was generally well-received, so I wanted to do a post about LSU.  Plus, inviting the mouthbreathing Tiger fans squatting on our boards to read 2,000 words might occupy them from now until game time.

     

    As with last time, my analysis is flawed and underresearched.  I watched a single LSU game—LSU vs. Georgia Southern’s matchup from last week, and I turned it off when LSU took their starters out.  Here were my takeaways:

     

    What to expect from LSU’s offense?

     

    Much ink has been spilled about LSU’s offseason offensive “turnaround” and hiring of a glorified grad assistant from LSU.  I’m not going to rehash their staff, scheme, or those details.  Instead, I’ll get right to the personnel.

     

    I will say that one thing that was apparent from watching the film was how much more tempo LSU ran their offense with this year.  There was no huddling and an apparent emphasis on moving very quickly offensively.

     

     

     

    Quarterback:

     

    Everyone knows LSU’s QB is Joe Burrow.  But what is he?  Is he a poor, Cajun (tautological?) man’s version of Sam Ehlinger?  Is he the dregs of Ohio State’s necrosis under Urban Meyer?  Is he a dark horse for the Heisman and possibly the best QB in the SEC?  These questions and more…

     

    What did I see last week?  Frankly, Burrow is extremely accurate in the short passing game.  He showed nice accuracy a few times on the Power/Slant RPO that LSU ran several times

     

    LZ0zyN.gif

    He hit a really nice backshoulder throw on a switch route to take LSU up 21-0:

     

    NJMXdA.gif

    Burrow has a strong preference for waiting for plays to develop deep, then hitting wide open check down reads, if he’s given time and space to do so.

     

    Y0Cuef.gif

    U6aDGz.gif

    Seriously, if Orlando decides to bring pressure, our D better get to the QB quickly, because Burrow is more than happy to pick up 5 or 6 yards on check downs.

     

    oR1LZl.gif

    Burrow’s arm strength is a question mark.  He does not have a cannon and his deep throws flutter and fail on him.  There were times against GSU that Burrow had a receiver wide open downfield, but his passes took so long to get to his target that defenders were able to catch up to the receiver to break up the pass

     

    PUebmY.gif

    If he does not have an open receiver, he’s not great at deciding to throw the ball away or try to pick up a few yards on the ground.  He will try to force balls into tight windows, if he doesn’t have a wide open checkdown he can find:

     

    CJmbHO.gif

     

     

    Running Backs:

     

    LSU’s starter snaps against GSU went to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (22) and Lanard Fournette (27).

     

    Edwards has some wiggle to him, great burst, and decisive cuts.  But he’s not a big tackle breaker or anything otherworldly:

     

    siKMuI.gif

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    Fournette appears to be LSU’s version of Kyle Porter:

     

    z0vfW0.gif

    Let’s hope he gets starter carries again this week.

     

    As mentioned above, Burrow really leaned on the RBs in the checkdown passing game—much more so than in the running game which (as discussed below) wasn’t great against GSU.  They also ran several RB screens.  Here's one to Lanard Fournette:

     

    aKdc8Y.gif

    Seriously, doesn’t he just look and run and get tackled like Kyle Porter?

     

    Here's some more screenage:

    Tzjqhu.gif

     

     

    Offensive Line:

     

    Surprisingly, given everything I’d heard about LSU’s O-line’s strengths and weaknesses, LSU’s OL actually kept a cleaner pocket in pass pro than they did a good job opening up running lanes.

     

    LSU struggled running the ball all night.

     

    up1m2S.gif

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    But Burrow had plenty of time to throw.

     

    KXBcta.gif

    With that said, if LSU’s OL has one big weakness, it’s the immobility of their offensive tackles

     

    GjRPtW.gif

    Same play from All-22:

     

    PcZ4OS.gif

    Potential for Texas’s Defense:

     

    This is the play I just showed above, but I want to do a deeper dive into it, because it’s one thing Orlando’s D did a very nice job of against La Tech:

     

    KXBcta.gif

    Note that the play above is very similar to plays where our D had two picks last week (one was the pick 6 by Ossai that was called back; the other was Overshown’s diving interception late in the game).  If Burrow isn’t careful with this throw this weekend, it could be a big momentum swing for Texas.  Notice that here, the overhang defender drops straight back up the seam—covering grass—even though there’s no receiver in the vicinity.

     

    Compare that to how Ossai makes a similar drop:

     

    Jl403J.gif

    Compare J’Mar Smith’s “look off” of that route with Burrow’s.  They’re almost identical.  J’Mar focuses on the curl route developing in the middle of the field, thinking he’s frozen the safety.  It’s not clear whether he even sees Ossai.  Then he rifles the ball to the curl route at the sticks, but Ossai breaks on the ball as soon as it’s thrown.

     

    In the Burrow version of the play, there’s even less deception, because the side of the field where the ball is thrown has only a single route being run.  Although Burrow “looks off” the safeties to that side of the field, there’s really no work he’s doing there, because there are no other routes that should have occupied them.

     

    And here’s Overshown’s even better drop:

     

    fxsQWt.gif

    Note how fixated La Tech’s QB is on the overhang defender rushing from the edge.  He sees him come upfield and thinks he must have a wide open window to hit the flat route.  But Overshown beats the flat route to the spot of the ball.

     

     

     

    What to Expect from LSU’s Defense:

     

    You’ve heard a lot about LSU’s defense this week.  Most of it is true.  Their LBs and secondary are really fucking fast and they hit really fucking hard.

     

     

     

    Defensive Backs:

     

    I’ll start with Safety, because Grant Delpit is the real deal.  Watch him run this play down (he’s standing right next to the official, about 9 yards off the ball and shaded over the strongside guard):

     

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    vAUz5H.gif

    (That probably should’ve been a late hit, but still)

     

    08Henc.gif

    I mean, fuck.

     

    The other safety is Ja’Coby Stevens who I would’ve talked about more if Grant Delpit weren’t on the team:

     

    Dr19LU.gif

    LSU’s secondary philosophy (at least against GSU) was to stop the run at all costs, play lock-down D with the corners and have the safeties keep everything in front of them and not miss tackles.  Sound familiar?

     

    LSU starts true freshman Derek Stingley, who also had punt/kick return duties for them.  He held up fine against Georgia Southern’s wholly inept attack, but how will he do manned up on Collin Johnson? 

     

     

     

    Linebackers:

     

    LSU’s DL does such a good job of occupying blockers that LSU’s LBs often get a free run into the hole.  Look at how early the WLB (Damone Clark, 35) gets to the hole. 

     

    JvO1Vx.gif

    But he stops his feet and catches the RB in the hole, rather than running through the hole and causing a TFL.

     

    Defensive Line:

     

    Rashard Lawrence is a stud.  We better hope Parker Braun is ready to pass protect at a high level, so this doesn’t happen:

     

    8Tr73z.gif

    Glen Logan is the other DE in the 3-4 front.  He missed some tackles against GSU:

     

    Pxy2u_.gif

    The nose tackle is Shelvin Tyler and is number 72.  He looks like the kind of defensive lineman who should be wearing number 72, too:

     

    7542807.jpg

     

    Chaisson is the rush LB (think Ossai’s role).  He gets talked about a lot, especially on here, given his recruiting history.  He’s   Still, we should definitely block him:

     

    153Wdt.gif

    The DL is very large, though, and susceptible to draws/screens.  Although when we run a draw, we have to hope our running back does not become a Dead, like this GSU player (Chaisson on the hit):

     

    woZnrO.gif

     

     

    Conclusion:

     

    Unsurprisingly, LSU’s defense is really stout.  It’s secondary, especially, can really fly around and make plays.  Our coaches need to make sure Sam doesn’t take a clean shot from Delpit or Chaisson (who will both, by the way, definitely make dirty hits:

     

    Already pointed out the Delpit late hit above, but here it is again:

     

    vAUz5H.gif

    And check out the crown of Chaisson’s helmet here:

     

    Rp-RWD.gif

     

     

    That shouldn’t surprise anyone.  But where Texas’ D-line is built to be a super quick, attacking and stunting line, LSU’s is designed to hold up against the Big run-centric OL of the SEC.  Can Texas take advantage of that by getting the lines moving laterally to wear out or negate LSU’s strengths?  And even if they can, how does Texas neutralize LSU’s speed at safety?

     

    I think back to the ways Gundy and Holgorsen attacked Orlando’s offense last year (lots of outside zone; lots of RPO routes premised on making safeties choose between run and pass responsibilities; and forcing one-on-one mismatches in the passing game through formation choices).  Will Herman force LSU to pick their poison the same way?  Do we have enough RB talent to spam LSU with the outside zone that oSu and WVU hammered Texas with?  Can Texas keep the pocket clean long enough for Sam to let LSU’s defense overpursue and find the open man?

     

    Those are all of the questions for Texas’ O against LSU’s D.  But flipping the script:  how the fuck is LSU going to score points on Texas?  LSU’s O is a horrible mismatch for what Orlando does with his defense, and the number of times they were forced to throw the ball against GSU may indicate some systemic problems with the run game install this year.  LSU’s attempt to “revolutionize” their offense by installing decade-old RPOs that have already been schemed over by DCs should terrify no one.

     

    I am so fucking excited for this game.

     

    Texas 28 – LSU 13.

     

    LOL. You did this whole exposè on LSU’s defense and then ask this: how the fuck is LSU going to score points on Texas?

    LOL!

    • Fuck You 7
  16. 1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

    Georgia Southern stuffed LSU's ground attack with 5-6 in the box vs 11 and 10 personnel.  Orgeron is playing into Orlando's hands by going 3 and 4 wide.  Texas will likely use 3-2-6 dime as the base defense.  That puts one more safety on the field - which is the strongest and deepest position group on the defense.  Maybe just as important, it gets a question mark at LB OFF the field.  With Ossai and McCullough playing the 2nd level I'm very comfortable  with that group.

    Do you really want a Tackle getting matched up on a Safety. In our 11 personnel we can line up in a traditional pro-style with Tory Carter going from TE to FB for smash mouth football or we can spread it out as you saw against GA Southern. I believe you saw very little vs GA Southern. 

  17. Just now, Valmy77 said:

    Boyce was bad, no doubt about it. But, as I said, Cook was suspended for targeting.

    I liked Cook coming out of Lamar, he played with Delpit. I don't know if the coaches start him this game, but he may play depending on how he grades out this week. 

  18. 6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Uh... they were freshman last year sitting behind more senior corners. This is their first season of being potential starters. In what way have they been MIA?  

    Let's be honest about this, Texas CBs are an issue. Herman has said it, Orlando has said it. This really isn't up for discussion. Jalen did OK against LA Tech. Kobe Boyce................

    Isn't there still a battle going on?

  19. 3 minutes ago, Deguello said:

    If the defense has to pay less attention to the run and it can be stopped without walking up the safeties, for example, it will be much harder to pass. 

    You understand the concept of a one-dimensional offense, don’t you?

    Texas' base is a 3-3-5. If you think you can stop LSU with only 6-7 people in the box, I don't know what to tell you. 

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