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Posted
1 hour ago, RoundRobin said:

MHO, if you try to move it now you will end up missing the rebound. 

that is what Wall St tells you to do.  And since they never advise you to sell under any circumstance, the "don't sell into a downturn" is suspect.  They need passive investors to stay passive.

Posted (edited)

That isn't really what Wall Street tells you to do.

It's what off-street tells you to do.  Bogle, Buffett, Lynch.

Wall Street makes money off transactions, not growth or dividends.  They probably don't want you pulling out of the market entirely, though.

Edited by TwiceHorn
Posted

NOT too late to get a chunk into MM accounts. I moved all 529s last week because those have much less time to recover (age dependent). Also moved a rollover ira into MM for less total equity exposure across all my retirement accounts.

How do you think Christmas will go this year? If you believe fundamentals matter at all anymore, this market is going to suck until q2 2021.

Dow is about 21,100 right now, fyi as a reference for posterity...

Posted

Not sure how many bear markets and crashes I’ve been through in my professional career that started in 1984, but it’s been several. I’ve yet to sell any stock or mutual fund during a downturn or near a high. I don’t see any reason to change my strategy now. I’m around 10 years away from retirement age.

  • Like 1
Posted
48 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Not sure how many bear markets and crashes I’ve been through in my professional career that started in 1984, but it’s been several. I’ve yet to sell any stock or mutual fund during a downturn or near a high. I don’t see any reason to change my strategy now. I’m around 10 years away from retirement age.

I think it's a mistake to have everything in the market right now.  now perhaps the worst of the damage is done but do you really believe that we've seen the worst part of this crisis from an economic viewpoint?

 

 

Posted
I think it's a mistake to have everything in the market right now.  now perhaps the worst of the damage is done but do you really believe that we've seen the worst part of this crisis from an economic viewpoint?
 
 

The problem is that my crystal ball is broken. You can never know when the bottom or the top is. When it rebounds when do you get back in? Last year I was up 30%. Many people I know were saying 2019 would be a down year with some predictions of recession. Indeed, the last economic news of a couple of weeks ago was fabulous before the virus panic. So if i had been out of the market last year i would not have had that gain. There’s a huge risk for being out of the market. You miss a couple of huge 5-8% up days and you’ve lost a great opportunity. So I just let it ride and it’s worked out very well. One can say this time is different. They say that every time. This too shall pass.
Posted (edited)

We haven't seen the bottom yet,  ALSO a lot of 401K fund/stock activity is time limited, in that you can't get back into some funds for 30 days for example.  I came very close to taking a pretty big risk and shifting a big chunk into my wife's company stock because I see a huge upside after the darkness.  But risky in putting anything in a single place.  For the average guy simply ride it out.  OR conversely you could boost even further your 401K contributions to get a greater percentage of your holdings during this downturn.  IF you can spare the cash.

MY personal opinion is that the market is going to be fuck city next tuesday or wednesday and I am hoping that might be a bottom.  As I feel that when the raw numbers start getting digested the enormous gravity of the situation will be even better defined.  As well as the inadequate preparation become shocking clear when the videos of overrun hospitals are contrasted with the "we are doing an amazing job." Press conferences.

That's sort of when i was considering putting my toe in.  We could fall for months but I am hoping long term players may come back in then to support the market. But who the fuck knows.

Edited by horn4life
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, HouTex said:


The problem is that my crystal ball is broken. You can never know when the bottom or the top is. When it rebounds when do you get back in? Last year I was up 30%. Many people I know were saying 2019 would be a down year with some predictions of recession. Indeed, the last economic news of a couple of weeks ago was fabulous before the virus panic. So if i had been out of the market last year i would not have had that gain. There’s a huge risk for being out of the market. You miss a couple of huge 5-8% up days and you’ve lost a great opportunity. So I just let it ride and it’s worked out very well. One can say this time is different. They say that every time. This too shall pass.

I learned my lesson in 2008. Don't listen to what the experts are recommending, do what the experts themselves are doing.  And you identify that by the direction of the crashing market. They're selling and they're happy that you don't. Many investors are out of the market now.  A good time to get back in is when the passive retirement accounts start to sell out of fear. I expect that to be next month when quarterly personal statements are sent out. And I guarantee I won't time it perfectly which is ok.

I took a huge hit today too but it's less than half I would have taken if I didn't sell half of my 401k a few weeks ago. (It's still there but in low risk bonds & treasury notes.)  I plan to slowly buy back in whether the drop continues or miraculously goes back up.

If the market bounces back tomorrow, it might be a good opportunity to sell SOME of your portfolio. Lock in gains through 2017. But perhaps it is too late for some to sell now. You've lost 3 years of gains in a few weeks. What's another 3 years, right?

  • Like 1
Posted

I'm just glad I get to fund my 401k/Keogh plan in the next 30 days--that's when our firm does it.  It will be invested in several different TR Price funds.  

Posted

There are some pretty amazing studies that show what happens if you miss the best days in a rebound / recovery.  

The odds of picking the bottom are so slim and the cost of missing out on the best days is so high that if you have the proper time horizon then staying invested makes mathematical sense.

Even missing the best 5 or 10 days has dramatically decreased  performance for  long term investors.

  • Like 1
Posted

If you think there is a more than likely a chance to see the s&p 500 at 2000 before 3000, it’s better to sell some tomorrow. Not all.  Some of you retirement funds.  You’re reducing risk.  If you’re wrong with that bet and everything goes back to normal next week, you miss out on some relatively small gains.  If you’re right about some big drops ahead, you set yourself up for massive gains in a few years with the recovery in a few years.

i think it comes down to whether you think the market has already priced in massive global unemployment and lower GDPs.

 

  • Like 1
Posted

On the idea that getting out of the market will cause you to miss out on the large increase days. Yes, 100% true. However since you’re not day trading, the only number that matters is the longer trend not individual days.

there have been some crazy positive days in the past month but we’re down a large percentage in the s&p?  With perfect (now) hindsight you would have been happy to miss those 6% gain days if you had stayed out.

if you’re an older retirement investor (40+) and scared on the idea of selling, sell slowly. 5% per week. Lock in some gains you’ve experienced over the past decade. If you’re 25, I agree my thoughts here don’t matter since your balance is much lower.

I would also be 100% clear on your plans rules in buying back in. If you sell a fund and buy back that exact fund too soon, they can place trading restrictions on you. Retirement accounts don’t like frequent trades. It’s not impossible just requires more thought.

(disclaimer: I’m just a guy on the internet not an expert. I agree you can’t perfectly time the market. Do what’s best for you, not what I say)

  • 5 years later...
Posted

Didn't  really pay attention to my 401k investment.  it was automatically invested in something called "Fidelity Freedom Index 2045."  Start looking at it last year.  Here's how it compares to the S&P 500.

 

Year Fidelity Freedom Index 2045* S&P 500 Total Return Difference (Fid vs S&P)
2020 +16.42 % +18.40 % Macrotrends+4SlickCharts+4SlickCharts+4 Fid −1.98 pp
2021 +15.95 % +28.71 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −12.76 pp
2022 −18.24 % −18.11 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −0.13 pp
2023 +19.90 % +26.29 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −6.39 pp
2024 +14.16 % +25.02 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −10.86 pp

 

 

I talk to the Fidelity and say "what the fuck is this thing?  it's worse than just getting something that tracks the S&P by a mile?"  have to listen to some idiot tell me how sophisticated it is.  i politely nod and immediately go mid-year last year to change my investments.  i can invest in stuff that just tracks the S&P500.  Start putting everything into that.

 

Investment YTD Return as of Aug 13, 2025
Fidelity Freedom Index 2045 ~ +15.63 % StatMuse+1
S&P 500 (Total Return)** ~ +9.9 % AP News

 

 

FUCK! GODDAMMIT

  • Rage+1 2
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

Didn't  really pay attention to my 401k investment.  it was automatically invested in something called "Fidelity Freedom Index 2045."  Start looking at it last year.  Here's how it compares to the S&P 500.

 

Year Fidelity Freedom Index 2045* S&P 500 Total Return Difference (Fid vs S&P)
2020 +16.42 % +18.40 % Macrotrends+4SlickCharts+4SlickCharts+4 Fid −1.98 pp
2021 +15.95 % +28.71 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −12.76 pp
2022 −18.24 % −18.11 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −0.13 pp
2023 +19.90 % +26.29 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −6.39 pp
2024 +14.16 % +25.02 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −10.86 pp

 

 

I talk to the Fidelity and say "what the fuck is this thing?  it's worse than just getting something that tracks the S&P by a mile?"  have to listen to some idiot tell me how sophisticated it is.  i politely nod and immediately go mid-year last year to change my investments.  i can invest in stuff that just tracks the S&P500.  Start putting everything into that.

 

Investment YTD Return as of Aug 13, 2025
Fidelity Freedom Index 2045 ~ +15.63 % StatMuse+1
S&P 500 (Total Return)** ~ +9.9 % AP News

 

 

FUCK! GODDAMMIT

Eh live and learn.

Those target funds aren't horrible for dumbshits.  They're more diverse and less risky than even an SP500 tracker.

If we'd had extended down markets, you'd probably be singing a different tune.

A lot worse mistakes have been made by those not minding the store in the 401k.

Edited by TwiceHorn
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

The goal of a Target Date fund isn’t to track the S&P 500.


It is a set it and forget it fund that becomes more conservative (reduce equity exposure) the closer you get to the target date.

Edited by luke duke
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted

And If that's what Fidelity sticks you in by default, targeted to your retirement year, that's a whole hell of a lot better than what some other 401k manager enties default to or force you into.  Another positive point for Fidelity as a 401k manager for small to medium business.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Not sure of circumstances but sounds like a relatively recent hire / enrollee in this plan????

This was a significant change in the Secure Act for new plans and some older plans also adopted it.

Employee is automatically enrolled in the 401(k) and can opt out, vs. employee having to proactively opt in.

Most sponsors then elect to have the default investment be a target date fund matching the employees age....unless/until the employee changes it.

Tough to argue that it is an improper investment when it is aligned with age and generally accepted allocation profile....Gives the plan sponsor and trustee some legal cover that they did the best they could for the employee.

Avoids sticking the employee in cash and then having to deal with them coming back 25 years later saying "why didn't you tell me?".

Whole lotta trying to protect people from themselves and playing the human nature game.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Recently bias kicking in for the OP here. If you want to be more aggressive but still take a “stick it and forget it” approach you can move to a target fund farther out from your date (2055 vice 2045). As this year shows, an S+P tracker is not always the choice you want.
 

I had an acquaintance dutifully make max contributions to his TSP (gov equivalent of 401k) but never reallocate from the G fund until 5 years out from retirement. Now that is a true fuckup. 

Posted
55 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Recently bias kicking in for the OP here. If you want to be more aggressive but still take a “stick it and forget it” approach you can move to a target fund farther out from your date (2055 vice 2045). As this year shows, an S+P tracker is not always the choice you want.
 

I had an acquaintance dutifully make max contributions to his TSP (gov equivalent of 401k) but never reallocate from the G fund until 5 years out from retirement. Now that is a true fuckup. 

Yeah I have a ton in a 2055 and I don't plan on working until even 2045.

Posted
1 hour ago, Reagan1k said:

Not sure of circumstances but sounds like a relatively recent hire / enrollee in this plan????

This was a significant change in the Secure Act for new plans and some older plans also adopted it.

Employee is automatically enrolled in the 401(k) and can opt out, vs. employee having to proactively opt in.

Most sponsors then elect to have the default investment be a target date fund matching the employees age....unless/until the employee changes it.

Tough to argue that it is an improper investment when it is aligned with age and generally accepted allocation profile....Gives the plan sponsor and trustee some legal cover that they did the best they could for the employee.

Avoids sticking the employee in cash and then having to deal with them coming back 25 years later saying "why didn't you tell me?".

Whole lotta trying to protect people from themselves and playing the human nature game.

Didn't know about that, but I have seen some 401ks with horrible options and the default option being the most horrible.

Posted
5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Didn't know about that, but I have seen some 401ks with horrible options and the default option being the most horrible.

I think a lot of plans elect the most conservative for you automatically because people who don’t pay attention to their shit are the ones most likely to throw a fit if they check one day and have “lost” money.

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