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Posted
On 12/6/2025 at 9:40 AM, Chopper said:

Alright, help me out here. The chart says total returns, not just coupon rate. You get capital appreciation when rates fall, and vice versa. So I don’t think you can automatically reach the conclusion in the response quoted without knowing how much of total return was from capital appreciation and how much was from current interest payments.

 

What am I missing? It’s been a long time since I took the CFA exam. 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/25/2025 at 10:12 PM, ChickenSandwich said:

Did she commit mortgage fraud or not?  Claiming ignorance would be a thing. Lol

Hey man, do you still care BIGLY about mortgage fraud?

https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-mortgage-fraud-florida-principal-residences

In 1993, Trump signed a mortgage for a “Bermuda style” home in Palm Beach, Florida, pledging that it would be his principal residence. Just seven weeks later, he got another mortgage for a seven-bedroom, marble-floored neighboring property, attesting that it too would be his principal residence.

In reality, Trump, then a New Yorker, does not appear to have ever lived in either home, let alone used them as a principal residence. Instead, the two houses, which are next to his historic Mar-a-Lago estate, were used as investment properties and rented out, according to contemporaneous news accounts and an interview with his longtime real estate agent — exactly the sort of scenario his administration has pointed to as evidence of fraud. 

...

Mortgage law experts who reviewed the records for ProPublica were struck by the irony of Trump’s dual mortgages. They said claiming primary residences on different mortgages at the same time, as Trump did, is often legal and rarely prosecuted. But Trump’s two loans, they said, exceed the low bar the Trump administration itself has set for mortgage fraud. 

...

Bill Pulte, the Federal Housing Finance Agency director who has led the charge, said earlier this year: “If somebody is claiming two primary residences, that is not appropriate, and we will refer it for criminal investigation.”

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
13 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Alright, help me out here. The chart says total returns, not just coupon rate. You get capital appreciation when rates fall, and vice versa. So I don’t think you can automatically reach the conclusion in the response quoted without knowing how much of total return was from capital appreciation and how much was from current interest payments.

 

What am I missing? It’s been a long time since I took the CFA exam. 

I think the guy is just saying bond market is counter cyclical with broader U.S. economy.  The y-axis is rates for the bonds, so the high number now is bad news, is the argument.  Below is S&P v. an aggregate bond over the last 5 years.  With the high rates now, he's saying that's a predictor of U.S. markets about to go down,

 

image.thumb.png.e3a45b8b762bea8a1ca05504fdb5507d.png

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Posted

So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 

We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 

We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

I'd love to hear about anyone recommended gold and silver this year who hadn't been recommending it for decades.  I'm sure that person exists, but gold bugs are  just like the permabears who have predicted 25 of the last 5 recessions

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 

We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

nope. we have a sizable stash of physical gold and silver from family that thought it the only prudent investment for decades upon decades. so we lucked into it. reality is gold sucked ass for thirty years if you bought around the peak in the 80s.

but now that we have it, I don't think the time to sell is now, could be wrong but the macro reasons for holding it are still present and should be for a few years, only SCOTUS re tariffs could have an impact. 

Goldman had a blurb out there that in hindsight allocation of 50% of assets into gold would have been the right move over the last few years.

our advisor is kinda ass.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 
We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

Nope. We did not.
Posted

That’s exactly the conversation we were having. Are the people recommending gold and commodities the same people that have been recommending them for decades, or did Merrill Lunch and Morgan Stanley look at the inflation outlook last year and advise only their $100M+ clients this wisdom?  

Posted
3 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

That’s exactly the conversation we were having. Are the people recommending gold and commodities the same people that have been recommending them for decades, or did Merrill Lunch and Morgan Stanley look at the inflation outlook last year and advise only their $100M+ clients this wisdom?  

I think when you get to $30M+ the advice can be much different. At $100M+ even more so. I do expect that ultra high net worth individuals are more adept and able to make those kinds of moves and it would probably be malpractice if precious metals were not a mainstay in those wealth advisors' advice from time to time. 

I also think sovereign purchases of actual metal are a core driver in the growth, as was believe it or not, Western seizure of Russian assets.

Posted (edited)

Self directed but I bought in a year ago based on several factors like inflation, concern about a market reset, and others. 
All in ETF

Edited by TexasEd
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Posted
3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 

We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

In late '24, early '25, my BIL's advisor suggested moving out of stocks, bonds and mortgages and invest it elsewhere.

He liquidated all his stock, bonds, paid off the houses and went all in on gold and silver.

I don't know my BIL's net worth or even what he does, but I'm guessing easily over $10M.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Superhero said:

In late '24, early '25, my BIL's advisor suggested moving out of stocks, bonds and mortgages and invest it elsewhere.

He liquidated all his stock, bonds, paid off the houses and went all in on gold and silver.

I don't know my BIL's net worth or even what he does, but I'm guessing easily over $10M.

If the advisor is sane and not a gold bug that’s amazing. 

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Posted

I talked to a guy in the $10m club and his advisor had moved him pretty aggressively into gold and silver. He’s by no means in the elite wealth club, but it got me wondering whether some financial advisors like Morgan Stanley are doing a better job of asset allocation because they have a huge research organization behind them. 

When I asked several friends who use small boutique financial advisors, not one of them was told to diversify into metals. I manage my own money because I have a pretty strong investment background, so I didn’t have an adviser to ask. But it made me pause and wonder whether tying into a large firm with huge research resources could pay off financially. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I talked to a guy in the $10m club and his advisor had moved him pretty aggressively into gold and silver. He’s by no means in the elite wealth club, but it got me wondering whether some financial advisors like Morgan Stanley are doing a better job of asset allocation because they have a huge research organization behind them. 

When I asked several friends who use small boutique financial advisors, not one of them was told to diversify into metals. I manage my own money because I have a pretty strong investment background, so I didn’t have an adviser to ask. But it made me pause and wonder whether tying into a large firm with huge research resources could pay off financially. 

My experience is at lower levels - the big houses have relationship folks and then rigid allocations to chose from - something like 5 or so that are developed by bloated teams and out of touch decision makers and they are pushing so much money and so many different people into those plans that you don’t get real advice. 

if you want the good stuff you need to have enough for a dedicated smart person who is making decisions with you with all options available and research behind them.  Cost should be .75%-1.0% and as we can see if the advice was to shift to gold it would have been well worth it.

we need to move on from ours but we have less than 5% of our NW with an advisor and 85% is illiquid bound up in real estate (40-45%), private company holdings (40-45%), and now precious metals (10%), so the impetus just isn’t there to make a change, even more so because we lucked into the gold and silver run. 

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