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A market dynamic that few are talking about is signaling a buying opportunity.

Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub connected two important market forces in a note to clients on Tuesday: price-to-earnings multiples and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

The takeaway from Golub’s analysis is this: The combination of the steep drop in the S&P 500’s P/E ratio coupled with an above average ISM Manufacturing Index points to double digit gains for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, if history is any judge.

Credit Suisse has a 3,350 target on the S&P 500 for the end of 2019, representing 21.6% upside from its current level of roughly 2,755.

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12 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

A market dynamic that few are talking about is signaling a buying opportunity.

Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub connected two important market forces in a note to clients on Tuesday: price-to-earnings multiples and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

The takeaway from Golub’s analysis is this: The combination of the steep drop in the S&P 500’s P/E ratio coupled with an above average ISM Manufacturing Index points to double digit gains for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, if history is any judge.

Credit Suisse has a 3,350 target on the S&P 500 for the end of 2019, representing 21.6% upside from its current level of roughly 2,755.

This would obviously be great...especially with the articles I’ve read where a lot of analysts believe 2019 could be a “slower” year.

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So for those sitting on the sidelines, what are u looking for to put cash back to work?

 

i have sub 10% cash, but looking at TSLA, PayPal, or an index fund when I get around to putting the cash to work. My main issue when investing: I’m chicken shit to buy on the dips, rather I panic buy on the way up. Curious what others use to help find that investible “bottom”. 

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33 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

i have sub 10% cash, but looking at TSLA, PayPal, or an index fund when I get around to putting the cash to work. My main issue when investing: I’m chicken shit to buy on the dips, rather I panic buy on the way up. Curious what others use to help find that investible “bottom”. 

This isn't financial advice, it's just thinking out loud.  If you are looking at specific stocks or ETFs and you want to get back in on a dip but seem to always miss the bottom, then consider selling a put for every 100 shares you'd like to own.  The idea is to sell the puts either at the money (i.e., if the stock is at $26 then you sell a $26 put) or out of the money (sell maybe the $24 put, but in this case you're pocketing less $).  If you did so at the bottom, and the underlying starts moving up, at least you pocket the cash from the sale of the put.  If the underlying continues down, then you'll probably get exercised and own the underlying at the price of the put MINUS the selling price of the put; i.e., you end up with the underlying in your account at a net price below where it was priced on the day you sold the option(s).  Stick to only selling 1 put per 100 shares of the underlying you wish to own, so with the above example, you'd need to have $2600 cash set aside to purchase the shares "put" to you by the buyer of every put you sell.  TALK TO YOUR BROKER if you don't understand options.

Anyway, it takes a little heat off "timing the bottom", because either way, you pocket the $ from the sale of the put(s).  If you get exercised, you get the underlying at a slight discount to where it was priced when you sold the put.  If you don't get exercised, hey, you got a little free money, but you still get to kick yourself in the groin for not getting into the underlying near the bottom.

<yes I realize it's a synthetic covered call with all the attending issues of limiting upside>

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4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

This isn't financial advice, it's just thinking out loud.  If you are looking at specific stocks or ETFs and you want to get back in on a dip but seem to always miss the bottom, then consider selling a put for every 100 shares you'd like to own.  The idea is to sell the puts either at the money (i.e., if the stock is at $26 then you sell a $26 put) or out of the money (sell maybe the $24 put, but in this case you're pocketing less $).  If you did so at the bottom, and the underlying starts moving up, at least you pocket the cash from the sale of the put.  If the underlying continues down, then you'll probably get exercised and own the underlying at the price of the put MINUS the selling price of the put; i.e., you end up with the underlying in your account at a net price below where it was priced on the day you sold the option(s).  Stick to only selling 1 put per 100 shares of the underlying you wish to own, so with the above example, you'd need to have $2600 cash set aside to purchase the shares "put" to you by the buyer of every put you sell.  TALK TO YOUR BROKER if you don't understand options.

Anyway, it takes a little heat off "timing the bottom", because either way, you pocket the $ from the sale of the put(s).  If you get exercised, you get the underlying at a slight discount to where it was priced when you sold the put.  If you don't get exercised, hey, you got a little free money, but you still get to kick yourself in the groin for not getting into the underlying near the bottom.

<yes I realize it's a synthetic covered call with all the attending issues of limiting upside>

It’s a solid strategy.   Also buying large cap dividend payers and selling covered calls is fairly similar.   Sell slightly out of the money calls every month and more or less collect an extra dividend every month 

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5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’s a solid strategy.   Also buying large cap dividend payers and selling covered calls is fairly similar.   Sell slightly out of the money calls every month and more or less collect an extra dividend every month 

Right, but there's the "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" aspect where the short call wipes out any big pop in the underlying.  It does appear to work somewhat over the long term.  We've talked about various ETFs here before that basically sell calls against an index and they do tend to outperform the index.

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34 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Right, but there's the "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" aspect where the short call wipes out any big pop in the underlying.  It does appear to work somewhat over the long term.  We've talked about various ETFs here before that basically sell calls against an index and they do tend to outperform the index.

That’s why it really only works with large cap dividend payers.  Not a huge premium on the calls and not as likely for extreme swings in price.  Amazon is not the stock to profit on this strategy, Wally World and Pfizer are though 

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5 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

This isn't financial advice, it's just thinking out loud.  If you are looking at specific stocks or ETFs and you want to get back in on a dip but seem to always miss the bottom, then consider selling a put for every 100 shares you'd like to own.  The idea is to sell the puts either at the money (i.e., if the stock is at $26 then you sell a $26 put) or out of the money (sell maybe the $24 put, but in this case you're pocketing less $).  If you did so at the bottom, and the underlying starts moving up, at least you pocket the cash from the sale of the put.  If the underlying continues down, then you'll probably get exercised and own the underlying at the price of the put MINUS the selling price of the put; i.e., you end up with the underlying in your account at a net price below where it was priced on the day you sold the option(s).  Stick to only selling 1 put per 100 shares of the underlying you wish to own, so with the above example, you'd need to have $2600 cash set aside to purchase the shares "put" to you by the buyer of every put you sell.  TALK TO YOUR BROKER if you don't understand options.

Anyway, it takes a little heat off "timing the bottom", because either way, you pocket the $ from the sale of the put(s).  If you get exercised, you get the underlying at a slight discount to where it was priced when you sold the put.  If you don't get exercised, hey, you got a little free money, but you still get to kick yourself in the groin for not getting into the underlying near the bottom.

<yes I realize it's a synthetic covered call with all the attending issues of limiting upside>

So I’ve used that strategy before in small quantities. Twice the stock was put to me, and over a multi-year period it turned out to be very profitable. 

 

That said, I felt like a real fool when it did dip below my put and was stressful. Options are great tools, but in my practice I find the volatility and challenge for optimal execution stressful. Also the premium from the options are really mice nuts in the big picture. 

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5 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

That said, I felt like a real fool when it did dip below my put and was stressful.

Eh, I think it's really important that you're comfortable with buying the stock at current market value when you sell the put.  The psychology is rough when it keeps going down, but if the goal is to acquire stock, then the mantra has to be "well, at least I'm getting it cheaper than I would have".

 

Quote

Options are great tools, but in my practice I find the volatility and challenge for optimal execution stressful. Also the premium from the options are really mice nuts in the big picture. 

On a lark, I just took a look at calls on Caterpillar (CAT @ $126.91), which should fit anyone's definition of "blue chip".  Going out 4 weeks, the 0.235 delta call ($136) is priced at $1.43 (middle of bid/ask).  No dividends are expected in that timeframe.  So, the market is telling us the call has a 76.5% chance of expiring worthless.  That's a potential 1.12% "dividend" in a month.  Assume CAT stays flat -- that's 13.5% annualized.  

I realize this is the covered call synthetic of the sold put, but it's instructive.  Of course, CAT could double and we'd miss out on most of that.

(Apologies for any bad math, it's been a long week and I don't have it in me to really dig in.)

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Is no one buying FB on here? At 140 something its under 18 next year's P/E, above average growth next year on the top line AND bottom line, no debt, $41 billion in cash AND they are unofficially doing buybacks. 

If you have a six month horizon, its basically free money. 

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1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

FWIW - both PG&E (-17%) and Edison Int'l (-12%) parent of southern cal edison down due to the fires in Cali.
If you are looking at opportunity, or a high risk play.

FWIW, CNBC was referring to PG&E being down because they caused some of the fires.  I had heard that about the fire in Rohnert Park in the past.  I have no other confirmation of that information on this years fires.

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8 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Not sure if was another analyst I saw interviewed or if it was him, but I believe his was the original that I read.  The underlying business case looked pretty awful.

I mean yeah, their revenues last year were 30 billion and expenses were 50 billion.

Unsustainable. 

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2 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Anyone ever heard of these guys? James Cordier & Michael Gross.  Their website is wiped.

chart

 

See Oil Barons thread.  Natty has been trading with some absolutely wicked daily and intraday swings.   Yesterday, it closed up 17%.  If they were short natty, they likely got completely wiped out.   Today natty closed down 16%.  Intraday it swung from down 19-20% to down 7% only to close down 16%.   It’s called The Widowmaker trade, it will likely life up to its name again.  

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