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Posted
10 minutes ago, horn4life said:

The argument of the similarity to gold I understand, but my big question is the youthful ownership (generally) could make is just as susceptible to steeps selloffs alongside US stocks

Scott Galloway says Bitcoin investment is a bit of a “fuck you” from Gen Z to the previous generations homeowners, 401-k investors, Vanguard account holders, etc.  He describes it as an act of rebellion against the wealth hoarders.
 

If that’s true, I’m not sure why they’d be any more likely to sell than any other market participant.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
18 minutes ago, horn4life said:

So I did not know who Lyn Alden was, but got into an interesting bitcoin conversation yesterday.  The scarcity aspect I can buy into.  And the fact that so many people are spending big bucks to mine it, shows a investment in bitcoin future.  But my question is: Is bitcoin truly decoupled from the dollar?

Does a stock market/economic crash send bitcoin in the opposite direction than the markets?  

I can't argue with the math of something increasing in price, especially in the last 6 months.  The argument of the similarity to gold I understand, but my big question is the youthful ownership (generally) could make is just as susceptible to steeps selloffs alongside US stocks. Simply as young folks are always in riskier assets, and also have the least deep pockets, so the downsides can be steep.  

I see the upsides, I just want to be convinced more about decoupling.  

 

 

 

Here's the Grok response when asked about BTC/SPY correlation

Spoiler

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has varied significantly over time, reflecting Bitcoin's evolving role in financial markets. Here’s a concise overview based on available data:

Long-Term Historical Correlation (10+ Years): Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has been relatively low, averaging around 0.17 to 0.34. This suggests Bitcoin has historically acted as a somewhat independent asset, appealing to investors seeking diversification. For comparison, other alternative assets like the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index showed a higher correlation of 0.42 over the same period.

Recent Trends (Last 5 Years): The correlation has increased in recent years, rising to around 0.41 to 0.53 over the past five years. This shift indicates Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a risk-on asset, moving more in tandem with equities, particularly during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty or market stress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021.

Key Periods of High Correlation:

2020-2021 (COVID-19 Pandemic): Bitcoin and the S&P 500 showed strong positive correlation, at times nearing 1:1, as both assets rallied with liquidity injections and low interest rates. Bitcoin’s price surged from $3,867 to $10,000 as the S&P 500 recovered from its March 2020 crash.

2022: Both assets declined significantly, with Bitcoin dropping 65% and the S&P 500 falling 19%, reinforcing a high correlation during market downturns. Correlation peaked at 0.75 for the 60-day rolling period.

Early 2025: The 30-day correlation reached 0.88 in January 2025, reflecting synchronized bullish momentum. However, by February 2025, it plummeted to zero, indicating a temporary decoupling as Bitcoin surged past $100,000 while the S&P 500 consolidated.

Periods of Low or Negative Correlation:

2019: Bitcoin’s bull run (from $3,000 to $12,000) showed a negative correlation with the S&P 500, driven by crypto-specific factors like adoption and halving anticipation.

Mid-2023: Correlation dropped to near zero, with Bitcoin consolidating while the S&P 500 hit new highs.

July 2024: Correlation turned negative (-0.82 to -0.84), with Bitcoin correcting while equities soared.

Performance Comparison:

2022: S&P 500 -19%, Bitcoin -65%

2023: S&P 500 +26%, Bitcoin +147%

2024: S&P 500 +24%, Bitcoin +135%

Bitcoin’s movements are often 3-5 times more volatile than the S&P 500, amplifying market trends.

Implications:

High correlation periods suggest Bitcoin tracks macroeconomic factors like interest rates and investor sentiment, behaving like a leveraged equity play.

Low or negative correlations often precede significant Bitcoin rallies, driven by crypto-specific events like halvings or regulatory optimism (e.g., post-2024 U.S. election).

Bitcoin’s volatility (e.g., 186.7% annualized returns from 2010-2022 vs. 8.8% since 2018) makes it a high-risk, high-reward asset compared to the S&P 500’s stable 9-10% annual returns.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has generally increased over time, particularly in risk-on environments, but it remains dynamic, with periods of decoupling driven by crypto-specific factors. Investors should expect Bitcoin to amplify market movements while monitoring macroeconomic conditions and crypto fundamentals for potential divergences.   

It generally has been become more correlated to SPY over time, although not very tightly. I think that's due to it being more closely linked to global liquidity as the size of the Bitcoin market gets bigger it takes more capital to move the price around.

It's pretty simple really, Bitcoin has no top over time because fiat has no bottom. They can and will print as much as they feel is necessary. Usually more.

Absolute scarcity in a network with a programmed set of rules versus a centrally planned system with rules dictated and changed over time by fallible actors.

You put some of your excess earnings or savings in bitcoin as a hedge against continued, increasing debasement of your monetary units. It has done very well and will continue to do so.

Posted
10 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Scott Galloway says Bitcoin investment is a bit of a “fuck you” from Gen Z to the previous generations homeowners, 401-k investors, Vanguard account holders, etc.  He describes it as an act of rebellion against the wealth hoarders.
 

If that’s true, I’m not sure why they’d be any more likely to sell than any other market participant.

My point is that folks with less liquidity have less means to ride out volatility when it spirals downward.  I am just very uncertain that bitcoin truly insulates against it moving along with the markets downward if things go really bad?  I just do not think it is a as decoupled as some assert. I have watched it decouple to some degree for certain.  And the uncertainty of US fiscal policy in combination with the potential of the US government embracing of bitcoin.

it seems to me that the possibility of the US embracing bitcoin is as much responible for the rise as any other factor.  Or am I misreading this timeframe?  As I have not been closely following at all.

Posted

It's just funny, because you can't buy food, shelter, diapers, formula or medicine with BTC. We've beaten this dead horse over and over, and simply saying another protocol that is unused for commerce doesn't fix that either 

Posted
1 hour ago, horn4life said:

My point is that folks with less liquidity have less means to ride out volatility when it spirals downward.  I am just very uncertain that bitcoin truly insulates against it moving along with the markets downward if things go really bad? 

When there are big liquidity shocks or market crashes, it has dropped substantially. That is largely due to it being tradable 24/7. Margin calls globally can be met at any time using it. Now if you think at some point central banks will choose to idly and let markets tank long term, then you should avoid it. But we all know what happens, the money printer turns on and they bring it back. It's the #1 priority. 

I remember quite vividly during the COVID crash when bitcoin finally bottomed under 4k one night. I thought oh shit, put a few drops in the bucket (wish I had done more), and just turned off my phone to hang with the family. Look what happened from there. 

1 hour ago, horn4life said:

it seems to me that the possibility of the US embracing bitcoin is as much responible for the rise as any other factor.  Or am I misreading this timeframe?  As I have not been closely following at all.

US "embracing" bitcoin definitely gave it a boost post election. There are plenty of other financial and societal factors that have been noted that are boosting it now. There are also large pools of capital that are getting more involved. Hedge funds, insurance, pensions. Other countries will be getting more involved. A lot of speculation that oil and gas rich countries in middle east have been mining for a while. Lots of tailwinds.

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's just funny, because you can't buy food, shelter, diapers, formula or medicine with BTC. We've beaten this dead horse over and over, and simply saying another protocol that is unused for commerce doesn't fix that either 

Good thing you don't get paid in BTC! You're right, we have beaten this over and over. It is currently primarily a savings vehicle. Over time it will have more utility. Hey go buy some steak n shake with it now.

Block/Square rolling out BTC accepting on their PoS in 2025/2026

 

They'll be able to opt for instant conversion to fiat, set a specific portion as BTC, or just keep the BTC.

Otherwise, if you want to use it for big purchases and need $, just sell and take cap gains 20% out. There are also currently products being built out that will allow you to take out overcollateralized loans against your bitcoin if you'd like. Similar to what has been done by rich people for a long time. Borrowing against large assets.

Posted

Great, and why is putting a 30+ minute transaction confirmation timer into a tablet a panacea for any of the previously covered problems with actually conducting commerce with this so-called currency?

And yeah no shit finance goons are figuring out ways to financialize the BTC and to do what, pray tell? Oh yeah, secure ACTUALLY USEFUL currency against it as loan collateral. None of it is actually useful - or to your rhetoric - freeing. It's just putting your financial life into the hands of profit extractors that definitionally do not have your best interests at heart

Posted
4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Great, and why is putting a 30+ minute transaction confirmation timer into a tablet a panacea for any of the previously covered problems with actually conducting commerce with this so-called currency?

It will use the lightning network on top of bitcoin.

 

Spoiler

May 27 2025, LAS VEGAS – Block, Inc. (NYSE: XYZ) today announced it will launch bitcoin payments on Square, marking a significant milestone in making bitcoin more accessible and usable. Bitcoin payments on Square will be showcased at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas from May 27-29, where attendees can experience this new feature firsthand at the BTC Inc. merchandise store. By leveraging the Lightning Network, the Square Point of Sale app enables merchants to accept bitcoin payments directly through their Square hardware for near-instantaneous, low-cost transactions. The roll out is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2025 and is expected to reach all eligible Square sellers in 2026, subject to applicable regulatory approvals.

Square’s new, native Bitcoin For Businesses offering will build upon its Bitcoin Conversions feature launched in 2024, which allows qualified merchants to automatically convert a portion of their daily sales into bitcoin. Together, these bitcoin offerings will create a seamless experience for both merchants and customers, helping bitcoin to fulfill its original vision as a true peer-to-peer payment system, as outlined in the bitcoin whitepaper.

“Block has long been a champion of bitcoin, focused on making it more accessible and usable in our everyday lives," said Miles Suter, Bitcoin Product Lead at Block. “Rolling out a native bitcoin experience to millions of sellers brings us one step closer to that goal. When a coffee shop or retail store can accept bitcoin through Square, small businesses get paid faster, and get to keep more of their revenue. This is about economic empowerment for merchants who like to have options when it comes to accepting payments.”

For customers, paying with bitcoin is as simple as scanning a QR code at checkout. The Lightning Network enables near-instant settlement, while Square's integration handles all the complexity behind the scenes, including real-time exchange rate calculations and confirmation notifications.

“We believe in an open, decentralized, fair, fast, and low-cost money system for everyone, and that’s exactly what we want to bring to Square sellers,” added Suter.

Bitcoin payments on Square will be the latest addition to Block’s growing bitcoin ecosystem, which includes Cash App’s bitcoin buy, sell, and transfer capabilities; Bitkey, a self-custody bitcoin wallet; Proto, a suite of bitcoin mining products and services; and Spiral, which builds and funds open-source projects that advance the use of bitcoin as a tool for economic empowerment.

Block is also advancing global access to bitcoin through Bitkey, a self-custody bitcoin wallet launched in March 2024. Starting in May, Bitkey will roll out new privacy and security features to further strengthen user control and protection. Designed to eliminate the complexity of traditional seed phrases, Bitkey uses a built-in, multi-signature security and recovery system that offers users full control and simple recovery options. It's the only hardware wallet that provides inheritance as a recovery feature to all users, helping people ensure that if they are unable to move their funds their beneficiaries are able to initiate a recovery process. Bitkey was built to make self-custody intuitive, secure, and accessible for people around the world.

In addition, Block is building Proto, bitcoin mining products and services that aim to decentralize mining by increasing access to tools for builders, regardless of size or location.

 

Posted
53 minutes ago, Luka said:

It will use the lightning network on top of bitcoin.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

May 27 2025, LAS VEGAS – Block, Inc. (NYSE: XYZ) today announced it will launch bitcoin payments on Square, marking a significant milestone in making bitcoin more accessible and usable. Bitcoin payments on Square will be showcased at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas from May 27-29, where attendees can experience this new feature firsthand at the BTC Inc. merchandise store. By leveraging the Lightning Network, the Square Point of Sale app enables merchants to accept bitcoin payments directly through their Square hardware for near-instantaneous, low-cost transactions. The roll out is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2025 and is expected to reach all eligible Square sellers in 2026, subject to applicable regulatory approvals.

Square’s new, native Bitcoin For Businesses offering will build upon its Bitcoin Conversions feature launched in 2024, which allows qualified merchants to automatically convert a portion of their daily sales into bitcoin. Together, these bitcoin offerings will create a seamless experience for both merchants and customers, helping bitcoin to fulfill its original vision as a true peer-to-peer payment system, as outlined in the bitcoin whitepaper.

“Block has long been a champion of bitcoin, focused on making it more accessible and usable in our everyday lives," said Miles Suter, Bitcoin Product Lead at Block. “Rolling out a native bitcoin experience to millions of sellers brings us one step closer to that goal. When a coffee shop or retail store can accept bitcoin through Square, small businesses get paid faster, and get to keep more of their revenue. This is about economic empowerment for merchants who like to have options when it comes to accepting payments.”

For customers, paying with bitcoin is as simple as scanning a QR code at checkout. The Lightning Network enables near-instant settlement, while Square's integration handles all the complexity behind the scenes, including real-time exchange rate calculations and confirmation notifications.

“We believe in an open, decentralized, fair, fast, and low-cost money system for everyone, and that’s exactly what we want to bring to Square sellers,” added Suter.

Bitcoin payments on Square will be the latest addition to Block’s growing bitcoin ecosystem, which includes Cash App’s bitcoin buy, sell, and transfer capabilities; Bitkey, a self-custody bitcoin wallet; Proto, a suite of bitcoin mining products and services; and Spiral, which builds and funds open-source projects that advance the use of bitcoin as a tool for economic empowerment.

Block is also advancing global access to bitcoin through Bitkey, a self-custody bitcoin wallet launched in March 2024. Starting in May, Bitkey will roll out new privacy and security features to further strengthen user control and protection. Designed to eliminate the complexity of traditional seed phrases, Bitkey uses a built-in, multi-signature security and recovery system that offers users full control and simple recovery options. It's the only hardware wallet that provides inheritance as a recovery feature to all users, helping people ensure that if they are unable to move their funds their beneficiaries are able to initiate a recovery process. Bitkey was built to make self-custody intuitive, secure, and accessible for people around the world.

In addition, Block is building Proto, bitcoin mining products and services that aim to decentralize mining by increasing access to tools for builders, regardless of size or location.

 

hooray, they've created paypal with extra steps and somehow even less guardrails! It's specifically breaking the trustless model of BTC to require trust in a 3rd party and the sidechain you set up with them to enable lightning network payments. And it requires up-front funding of any escrow lightning side-chains you set up, which is a considerable barrier to onboarding.

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

hooray, they've created paypal with extra steps and somehow even less guardrails! It's specifically breaking the trustless model of BTC to require trust in a 3rd party and the sidechain you set up with them to enable lightning network payments. And it requires up-front funding of any escrow lightning side-chains you set up, which is a considerable barrier to onboarding.

There is minimal trust introduced, mainly through Square's liquidity and channel management. But you will not be funding or managing the channels (not side-chains). Outright theft or loss of funds is not possible.

Unlike Paypal, you control your own funds at all times. Unlike Paypal, payments cannot be declined. Otherwise you have it exactly right. Lol.

If you'd to discuss further perhaps should move it to the appropriate thread.

Posted
13 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

We are going vertical with the debt now. Printer goes brrrrrrr.

image.png.5b1dc0ded1d9898d5fefb95b45284840.png

 

8 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

They colored the graph red and blue for what party was President so that tells us everything we need to know.

Not really. It doesn’t look at what really matters. Debt as a % of GDP. And it doesn’t show who actually had control over a budget when it was set. This post from the mortgage thread does. The Republicans are not the wonderful stewards of money they claim to be, and Donald Trump was and is looking to be again a disaster. 
 

 

Fiscal Year

 

 

President Responsible

 

 

House Control

 

 

Senate Control

 

 

Deficit (USD)

 

 

% of GDP

2012 Barack Obama (D) Republican Democratic $1.327 trillion 8.5%
2013 Barack Obama (D) Republican Democratic $680 billion 4.1%
2014 Barack Obama (D) Republican Democratic $485 billion 2.8%
2015 Barack Obama (D) Republican Republican $442 billion 2.4%
2016 Barack Obama (D) Republican Republican $585 billion 3.1%
2017 Barack Obama (D)† Republican Republican $665 billion 3.4%
2018 Donald Trump (R) Republican Republican $779 billion 3.8%
2019 Donald Trump (R) Democratic Republican $984 billion 4.6%
2020 Donald Trump (R) Democratic Republican $3.132 trillion 14.9%
2021 Donald Trump (R)† Democratic Republican†† $2.775 trillion 12.4%
2022 Joe Biden (D) Democratic Democratic $1.375 trillion 5.5%
2023 Joe Biden (D) Republican Democratic $1.695 trillion 6.3%
2024 Joe Biden (D) Republican Democratic $1.833 trillion 6.4%
2025 Joe Biden (D) Republican Democratic $1.9 trillion 6.5%
 

Footnotes:

  •  Although Donald Trump was president during part of FY 2017 (starting January 20, 2017), the FY 2017 budget was mostly planned and signed into law during the Obama administration. Trump later signed supplemental appropriations.

  • †† Senate control in FY 2021 was effectively split 50-50 after the January 2021 runoffs in Georgia, with Vice President Kamala Harris (D)casting tie-breaking votes, giving Democrats functional control starting late January 2021 — but this occurred after the FY 2021 budget was largely set under Republican control.

I think this chart sums it up pretty well. Barack Obama did a pretty good job as President keeping spending under or around 3% of GSP after the 2009 financial crisis died down. Trump was an absolute disaster because he panicked during Covid and wildly overspent. Biden was ridiculously overspending, and here we sit with Trump in office and in control over both houses of Congress and the House passed a budget that will be the worst yet. Specifically for FY 2026, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the deficit could rise by nearly $600 billion, bringing the total deficit to approximately $2.3 trillion, or about 7.3% of GDP . Fucking disaster.

 
  •  
Posted
5 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Not really. It doesn’t look at what really matters. Debt as a % of GDP. And it doesn’t show who actually had control over a budget when it was set. This post from the mortgage thread does. The Republicans are not the wonderful stewards of money they claim to be, and Donald Trump was and is looking to be again a disaster. 
 

 

 

Fiscal Year

 

 

President Responsible

 

 

House Control

 

 

Senate Control

 

 

Deficit (USD)

 

 

% of GDP

2012 Barack Obama (D) Republican Democratic $1.327 trillion 8.5%
2013 Barack Obama (D) Republican Democratic $680 billion 4.1%
2014 Barack Obama (D) Republican Democratic $485 billion 2.8%
2015 Barack Obama (D) Republican Republican $442 billion 2.4%
2016 Barack Obama (D) Republican Republican $585 billion 3.1%
2017 Barack Obama (D)† Republican Republican $665 billion 3.4%
2018 Donald Trump (R) Republican Republican $779 billion 3.8%
2019 Donald Trump (R) Democratic Republican $984 billion 4.6%
2020 Donald Trump (R) Democratic Republican $3.132 trillion 14.9%
2021 Donald Trump (R)† Democratic Republican†† $2.775 trillion 12.4%
2022 Joe Biden (D) Democratic Democratic $1.375 trillion 5.5%
2023 Joe Biden (D) Republican Democratic $1.695 trillion 6.3%
2024 Joe Biden (D) Republican Democratic $1.833 trillion 6.4%
2025 Joe Biden (D) Republican Democratic $1.9 trillion 6.5%
 

Footnotes:

  •  Although Donald Trump was president during part of FY 2017 (starting January 20, 2017), the FY 2017 budget was mostly planned and signed into law during the Obama administration. Trump later signed supplemental appropriations.

  • †† Senate control in FY 2021 was effectively split 50-50 after the January 2021 runoffs in Georgia, with Vice President Kamala Harris (D)casting tie-breaking votes, giving Democrats functional control starting late January 2021 — but this occurred after the FY 2021 budget was largely set under Republican control.

I think this chart sums it up pretty well. Barack Obama did a pretty good job as President keeping spending under or around 3% of GSP after the 2009 financial crisis died down. Trump was an absolute disaster because he panicked during Covid and wildly overspent. Biden was ridiculously overspending, and here we sit with Trump in office and in control over both houses of Congress and the House passed a budget that will be the worst yet. Specifically for FY 2026, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the deficit could rise by nearly $600 billion, bringing the total deficit to approximately $2.3 trillion, or about 7.3% of GDP . Fucking disaster.

 
  •  
  •  

I’m sorry but I know what red and blue mean in a chart.

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

You also apparently know how to be an idiot. 

QFT.  These threads have become painful so I’m deploying the ignore function more and more to make them readable.

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