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2022 Volleyball - Stacked as Hell


Js1

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Then maybe Minny will win a title in 2023 (12 seasons in)

Maybe. Or maybe 5 years from now. McCutcheon isn't going anywhere. He's a fantastic recruiter. He has a great recruiting base in Minnesota and surrounding states. He recruits nationally.

Minnesota puts a lot of resources in their volleyball program, and their attendance is tier 1 with Texas, Wisconsin, Hawaii, and Nebraska (Nebraska is really S tier). A lot of what the Minnesota program is has everything to do with McCutcheon. But I'm not actually trying to change your mind. I just have a different point of view. 

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

That was a high level match won by OSU in 4. 

Bergmann only hit .141 (21-12-64)

 

She was extremely agitated all match long. 

Still averaged 5 kills/set with OSU focusing on her at the net and in the second level. The thing is she’s getting off a quality attack under scenarios someone else wouldn’t be able to. She doesn’t really have any help. Last year they had Brambilla and a MUCH better setter than D’Amico. 

Morrissette the middle blocker had a better match than I’ve seen from her before, but GT’s passing wouldn’t allow that many middle attacks. 

GT’s big differentiator outside of Bergmann is they have 3 backrow attackers with Otene and Bertolini, but the drop off from Bergmann to those two is subastantial.

Meanwhile OSU’s Gabby Gonzalez goes off as an OH for the first time all season, really. Londot, OSU’s do everything RS, hit around the same mark as Bergmann. It’s like they erased each other. 

OSU is just a better team. I still don’t believe in their outside hitting. Neither Gonzalez nor Moore wow me really  

With Penn State showing up in a big way this weekend the B1G has 5 teams in Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, OSU, Penn State with legitimate top 10 credentials. It’s an absurd conference.

UCLA and USC are historical powerhouses (that look like hammered shit this year). They’re going to be languishing at the bottom half of the conference without some kind of miracle between now and when they start play in the B1G. 

Oh, Rice beat Tech in 5 sets. Rice has a solid team. Texas destroyed them in the 5 set scrimmage. There’s such a huge gap between Texas and everyone else right now. Just don’t want to see them lose their mojo, whether through complacency or in an attempt to tinker with lineups. But there’s no magic formula on how to do that. First world problems for sure. 

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Texas is projected RPI #1 in the RPI futures by season's end at 22-2.

Matches on tap this week to watch:

  •  #1 Texas vs. (RV) Houston on Thursday
  • #9 Stanford @ #2 Nebraska tonight (7pm, B1G)
  • #2 Nebraska @ #13 Kentucky, Sunday (3pm, ESPNU)
  • #3 Louisville @ #13 Kentucky, Wednesday (7pm, ESPN)
  • #3 Louisville @ #9 Stanford, Saturday (5pm, Pac 12 Network)
  • #4 Wisky vs #16 Florida, Friday (7:30pm, B1G)
  • #5 Ohio State @ #12 Pitt, Sunday (1pm, ACCN+)
  • #6 Minny vs #22 Pepperdine, Thursday (7pm, B1G+)
  • #6 Minny vs (RV) Washington State, Saturday (7:30pm, B1G+)
  • #23 Kansas vs (RV) UCF, Friday (6:30pm, ESPN+)

Stanford with a 2-0 week would be nice for us, and also fuck Corn.  Minny needs a 2-0 week, along with Kansas going 1-0 and Ohio State picking up a big road win at Pitt. 

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Texas is projected RPI #1 in the RPI futures by season's end at 22-2.

Matches on tap this week to watch:

  •  #1 Texas vs. (RV) Houston on Thursday
  • #9 Stanford @ #2 Nebraska tonight (7pm, B1G)
  • #2 Nebraska @ #13 Kentucky, Sunday (3pm, ESPNU)
  • #3 Louisville @ #13 Kentucky, Wednesday (7pm, ESPN)
  • #3 Louisville @ #9 Stanford, Saturday (5pm, Pac 12 Network)
  • #4 Wisky vs #16 Florida, Friday (7:30pm, B1G)
  • #5 Ohio State @ #12 Pitt, Sunday (1pm, ACCN+)
  • #6 Minny vs #22 Pepperdine, Thursday (7pm, B1G+)
  • #6 Minny vs (RV) Washington State, Saturday (7:30pm, B1G+)
  • #23 Kansas vs (RV) UCF, Friday (6:30pm, ESPN+)

Stanford with a 2-0 week would be nice for us, and also fuck Corn.  Minny needs a 2-0 week, along with Kansas going 1-0 and Ohio State picking up a big road win at Pitt. 

 

For anyone who has no idea how RPI Futures work, it's important to note that every year it predicts more losses for Texas than UT actually experiences. It's a computer projection that assigns every team a value based on a formula called "Pablo" named after the person who came up with it. The Pablo formula then assigns a percentage chance for win/loss for every single match throughout the season. RPI Futures uses those percentages to statistically infer a final record. All of this is relevant, but not necessarily predictive. Texas is not assigned a 100% chance of winning the rest of its games no matter how dominant it is versus the opponent. String together enough <100% outcomes in a computer model, and it's going to predict somewhere along the way the other outcome. In UT's case, 2 of them. Nonetheless, Pablo favors Texas in every single matchup the rest of the year. It's simply projecting 2 losses based on the less than 100% aspect. 

As Texas goes through the season without losing, the projected number of losses goes down, too. If Texas doesn't lose through the midway point of the Big 12, for example, the projected losses will go down to 1, and then at some point if Texas continues to win, it will go down to 0.

RPI Futures is more handy for other teams' fans that want to know how they can reach the top 4, because Texas is practically a lock. They'd have to lose 2 games for it to even become a factor, and that's only if 4 other teams ranked extremely high in RPI Futures lost fewer games than projected, which is not likely. Personally, I think it's way more likely Texas goes undefeated from this point than it is that they lose 2 matches. 

If Texas goes undefeated RPI won't end up mattering that much, because there aren't 4 teams with a better strength of schedule without a loss, already. So RPI's most important utility is in case Texas drops a match somewhere along the way. Which is an important utility to be sure, but hopefully it's not needed this year. I still consistently root for teams for RPI purposes, because it makes it more fun to watch matches with an inherent rooting interest. 

That said, I'm rooting for Stanford to beat Nebraska tomorrow in Lincoln, but there's a part of me hoping for an undefeated Nebraska versus an undefeated Texas in the national championship, as unlikely as that may be. 

Oh, I also tend to follow Rice, because while it doesn't matter for RPI purposes, Rice is pretty good this year. I watched Texas completely destroy them in Houston in a 5 set scrimmage prior to the season starting, so them being good gives me a personal sense of satisfaction regarding that result, whether it should or shouldn't. Rice has an outside shot of being a top 16 seed. That's important because the top 16 seeds host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. I don't think they'll actually get there. With the conference they're in they can't afford to lose very often at all. But I'm rooting for it. Rice beat UH, our Thursday opponent, although the match was close. 

BTW, Ohio State will play every team in the current top 12 by the end of the year, other than themselves. They also play Tennessee this weekend, who is a top 50 type team. Just an absurd schedule.

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Fleck is Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week again

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Fleck earns her second Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week recognition this season after anchoring the Texas back line and leading the top-ranked Longhorns to a pair of sweeps. The senior had 35 total digs and averaged a league-leading 5.83 digs per set against Denver and UC Davis.

Has a Texas libero ever won the award twice in 3 weeks? Averaging 5.05 digs per set on the season so far. 

Iosia only averaged 3.19 in 2021, 3.11 for Morgan O'Brien in 2020, Petersen 3.49 in 2019 and 3.58 in 2018, McCoy 4.41 in 2017, 3.95 in 2016, 4.12 in 2015 and 3.75 in 2014. 

Cat McCoy's 4.41 digs per set is #1 in the Texas books for a single season.  Actually, Cat has #1, #5, #7 and #9 on the all-time single season list. 

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10 hours ago, Js1 said:

Fleck is Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week again

Has a Texas libero ever won the award twice in 3 weeks? Averaging 5.05 digs per set on the season so far. 

Iosia only averaged 3.19 in 2021, 3.11 for Morgan O'Brien in 2020, Petersen 3.49 in 2019 and 3.58 in 2018, McCoy 4.41 in 2017, 3.95 in 2016, 4.12 in 2015 and 3.75 in 2014. 

Cat McCoy's 4.41 digs per set is #1 in the Texas books for a single season.  Actually, Cat has #1, #5, #7 and #9 on the all-time single season list. 

And the crazy thing is that Fleck's insane number of digs mostly go center court, between the net and the 10 foot line.

Cat was incredibly athletic at getting to balls and getting them back up in the air.  But God only knew where they were going.

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Just now, TwiceHorn said:

Was she good in the Denver match?  Not sure why, exactly, but I am rooting for her.  Maybe because she's a bit of a mighty-mite (at what, 5-10?).

Incredible arm talent as OH/back row hitter. Arguably best serve on team. Above average court IQ. Good to above average passer & blocker. Dunno but she looks taller than 5'10.

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2 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Big road win for Louisville over UK tonight on ESPN. I imagine Louisville will be the new #2 ranked team next week.

Probably. Fun high level match but good god, net serves bother me. There’s zero chance of anything good happening. At least if you go long, maybe it gets touched or you sneak it in.  

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Parra looks more comfortable in the starting line-up.

Skinner has all the physical tools to be a great player but she doesn't have it mentally yet. She just makes too many silly mistakes and looks like she's overthinking things. I know she wants to be a 6-rotation player (and that may have been a deal for her transferring here), but I think that responsibility is too much for her right now. If Elliott continues to start her in the line-up, he should let her be successful as a front-row player only and just build up her confidence and success in that role in Texas' system...and then slowly start giving her more responsibilities

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9 hours ago, Goodman said:

They look like a problem, hopefully someone else's in the tournament. 

Glad that what I saw with Parra seems somewhat accurate, can't wait to see how her season turns out.

Parra playing 4 rotations last night (3 across the front row and serving) was great. She showed out. Took good angles, hit it hard, served tough. Halter replaced her for the final 2 backrow rotations. 

Skinner should get to start and play most of tonight’s match. Maybe it was an off night for her, idk. Even Fleck only had 10 digs in 4 sets. Pedestrian. Both our MB2 offensively were garbage but Parra, Logan, Molly and O’Neal made up for it, all hitting over 300. 10 aces and 9 blocks helped too. 

really looked like a match we were sleepwalking through. UH slapped us around in the first set and we woke up. We’ll do that often. Having the luxury of being able to insert Parra for Skinner, Devin for Molly and interchange Bergmark and Caffey shows how stupid deep we truly are. If you don’t perform early (Skinner) in a match, you’ll be replaced. 

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On 9/14/2022 at 9:10 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

Wasn’t she having problems in the ncaa tourney with serve receive?

That's usually true of all "6-rotation" bigs.  Parra is primarily a hitter, but she's good enough, mostly, to play all fix rotations like Logan and some others.

But even if they're "good enough," 6-rotation hitters tend not to be as good as dedicated DS.  They get picked on by the serve, sometimes pretty effectively, and that includes Logan.  Parra is probably not as good as Logan, or wasn't last year, anyway.

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