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Posted
41 minutes ago, Chopped said:

It’s almost like some of yall don’t want a peace deal. 

It's almost like you have no idea what you're talking about. No, it's exactly like that. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

Again, I'll believe it when I see it come to fruition. Bibi thinks he controls Trump/the US government.

Trump is desperate to get a peace award of any kind.

And to distract from the shutdown and the National Guard fuckery.

Posted
11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And to distract from the shutdown 

Oh well I haven't paid in a month but at least there's peace in the Middle East!

-Random government employee

Posted
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump is desperate to get a peace award of any kind.

And to distract from the shutdown and the National Guard fuckery.

and his imminent pardon of his partner in pedophilia, Maxwell

Posted
22 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Again, I'll believe it when I see it come to fruition. Bibi thinks he controls Trump/the US government.

Why do you think that? He's getting his arm twisted to go along with this.

 

This guy came across my feed via this PBS interview. Starting at 4:00 he discusses Trump pressure.

 

 

Posted
16 minutes ago, Chopped said:

Why do you think that? He's getting his arm twisted to go along with this.

 

This guy came across my feed via this PBS interview. Starting at 4:00 he discusses Trump pressure.

 

 

He's also facing significant pressure from all the ultranationalist freaks in his government like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. Accepting Trump's plan runs a real risk of him losing power sooner rather than later.

Posted


an interesting discussion of the deal from Israeli perspective. 
 

Spoiler

There are concerns arising regarding the proposed deal, and they are legitimate. It is legitimate to worry that Hamas will try to deceive and not return all the hostages. It is legitimate to feel anxiety that Hamas will recover and grow stronger. That Israel will be forced to withdraw, with its hands tied.  
A few remarks. What is written here is accurate as of this moment.

1. After two years, there is what can be achieved through military force and what is less achievable. Clearly, Israel has succeeded greatly against Hezbollah and Iran, but much less so in Gaza, after a military effort and tens of thousands of deaths, many of them non-combatants. The humanitarian tragedy—the mass deaths and widespread destruction—is the primary reason for Israel’s current standing in the world.  

   The IDF was forced to fight in impossible conditions. The battle against Hamas in Gaza is “the greatest challenge in the history of the IDF,” to quote a senior General Staff officer. And why? Because of the hostages and the operational difficulty. Because of Hamas’s entrenchment underground. Due to the civilian density. The international pressure.  

   Capturing the city of Gaza would not have ended the war, even according to the IDF. There was a need to move to clear the central camps and then go south again. The American administration was determined that the war needed to end by the end of the year, and the timelines did not align. But even if all this had been completed, without a different civilian hold over the Gazan population, there is no defeat of Hamas.

2. The proposed deal is an achievement for Israel because it forces Hamas, already in the first phase, to relinquish its primary asset: the hostages—all of them. In the second phase, Hamas supposedly no longer controls Gaza. But neither does the IDF. It moves to a gradual withdrawal.

3. According to the deal, the governance in Gaza will be Palestinian. Security forces from other regional countries will reportedly be brought in. These will naturally limit the IDF’s freedom of action due to their presence. Hamas will persist, and a senior Israeli official told me in the past few days that it is clear that it is difficult, if not impossible, to enforce the disarmament of light weapons in the Strip in such a situation. Although the Trump plan explicitly speaks of “laying down arms.”

4. In other words: Hamas will not disappear. The total destruction of Hamas as an organization is not among the war’s objectives. Its military and governmental capabilities have already been crushed, according to the IDF. But Hamas is a popular and deeply rooted movement within the Palestinian public. Hamas’s army can be destroyed, and according to the IDF, it has been eliminated; the organization itself cannot be eradicated or dismantled, except under one condition. Perhaps.

4. That condition—necessary but perhaps not sufficient—is full Israeli control over Gaza through a military occupation lasting years. Only then might it be possible to truly disarm Hamas and attempt to ensure it does not exist organizationally at all. Even an occupation might not succeed. But this no longer matters: Israel never planned or declared that its intention was a full military occupation of Gaza. Or the elimination of Hamas as an organization.

5. Therefore, for many months, it has been clear that an agreement like this would be signed. Again: a full occupation, from the perspective of Trump and Netanyahu, will not happen.  
   The question is what is the difference between the agreement that could have been achieved in March 2025 and the agreement that might be reached in October 2025.  
   In the meantime, Israel has suffered severe and terrible damage, especially in the months that have passed, damage that is not worth the military benefit. This is a position expressed by senior Israeli officials and government figures, including those close to Netanyahu. The Trump administration wanted and was ready for the war to end with the previous deal it mediated.

6. Over a year ago, Chief of Staff Halevi told the cabinet that in Gaza, there are three and only three options: Hamas, Fatah, or the IDF. Israel did not accept any of the three (Netanyahu continued and continues to reject a military administration). It left a vacuum. In the best case, it will get Fatah and an international administration; in the worst case, officials who will do what Hamas wants. There will be regional and international influence, which will initially moderate Hamas’s ability to rebuild its strength. No one will go house to house in Jabalia except the IDF or a Palestinian force opposed to Hamas (and it’s not certain such a force exists).

7. The question every Israeli asks themselves is clear—how do we ensure that Hamas does not control Gaza again? That they do not rebuild their military infrastructure?  
   The answer is that as long as there are Gazans, Hamas will exist in the Strip until the Palestinians decide otherwise. Therefore, great political wisdom will be required to weaken the organization, ensure it does not grow stronger or control the Strip’s government, as well as military determination to strike again if necessary. Like the struggle against Hezbollah, this will not be short.

8. Over 70% of Israelis, according to a Channel 13 poll this week, support the Trump plan. 74% of Israelis already supported ending the war in exchange for the return of the hostages in a Channel 12 poll in July, including 6 out of every 10 coalition voters (the question is not precise; Israel is getting not only the hostages as part of ending the war).  

   Successful wars require broad public consensus. The vast majority of Israelis want the hostages to return and the war to end, and this has been the case for a long time. And yes, there is determination that Hamas will not control Gaza.

9. The deal and Trump’s vision do not see Hamas as part of Gaza’s future, but the main conclusion is that if this deal goes forward, the confrontation with Hamas will continue for a long time. We must prepare for it, and as the president says, we must remember October 7. Hamas is not a byproduct of the conflict but, to a large extent, a manufacturer that produces it. Dismantling/crushing the organization is essential for any vision of security and peace in the region.


 

 

3 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

He's also facing significant pressure from all the ultranationalist freaks in his government like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. Accepting Trump's plan runs a real risk of him losing power sooner rather than later.

from the discussion above 70% of Israelis approve of Trump’s plan? Sounds like he needs to wrap it up to help secure re-election? After that you might see some shenanigans. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Chopped said:

Hamas is not a byproduct of the conflict but, to a large extent, a manufacturer that produces it.

I may largely agree with that, but it gets a giant "incomplete."  Because what Israel SHOULD be worried about is what comes next.  Every person - especially young person - that lived in Gaza during this war is now much more likely to be a future terrorist attacking Israel some years from now.  I cannot imagine an outcome OTHER than Israel just radicalizing hundreds of thousands of people against it.  And, in the process, losing its positive relationship with functionally all of its western allies except the US.

I believe that Israel did a terrible job calculating the long-term costs.  I see a world where 10 years from now, young adults who were radicalized by the inhumane and criminal attacks on them as civilians attack Israel and its interests wherever they can.  Suicide vests on busses, all the hits.  And my kids' generation will see the story on the news, and shrug their shoulders with a "well, what did you expect?"

The self-inflicted harm Israel has done to itself will play out for decades to come.  It didn't have to be that way.  But for Bibi and his short-term political survival, it apparently DID have to be that way.

  • Like 2
Posted
14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I may largely agree with that, but it gets a giant "incomplete."  Because what Israel SHOULD be worried about is what comes next.  Every person - especially young person - that lived in Gaza during this war is now much more likely to be a future terrorist attacking Israel some years from now.  I cannot imagine an outcome OTHER than Israel just radicalizing hundreds of thousands of people against it.  And, in the process, losing its positive relationship with functionally all of its western allies except the US.

I believe that Israel did a terrible job calculating the long-term costs.  I see a world where 10 years from now, young adults who were radicalized by the inhumane and criminal attacks on them as civilians attack Israel and its interests wherever they can.  Suicide vests on busses, all the hits.  And my kids' generation will see the story on the news, and shrug their shoulders with a "well, what did you expect?"

The self-inflicted harm Israel has done to itself will play out for decades to come.  It didn't have to be that way.  But for Bibi and his short-term political survival, it apparently DID have to be that way.

I think your analysis also gets an "incomplete" because I think you could be right, but it depends...

It depends on who is going to step up and be the next Iran and funnel money, arms, protection and leadership to the next generation of Palestine's Hamas that you think is inevitable to crop up?

While Israel might have done a terrible job calculating the long-term costs (TBD), I think they tried to mitigate long term consequences. Which is to say the dismantling of it's enemies who allowed Hamas to be as powerful as they got to be as a terrorist group for the OG 10/7 two years ago, in the attacks in Syria, Iran, and abroad. They were trying to eliminate the threat wholly (which, grossly, looks like it included eliminating Palestine completely) and seemed to have the mindset of take the axe to the roots and not let it grow back.

Obviously they've failed so what's next? Did they get enough of the roots for the weeds to be managable or is it all Hamas-redux all the way down? TBD, WIP, Incomplete.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
40 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I may largely agree with that, but it gets a giant "incomplete."

It's funny because it is literally both a byproduct of the conflict and a contributor to it. I don't understand how people see the world in such black and white terms.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

It's funny because it is literally both a byproduct of the conflict and a contributor to it. I don't understand how people see the world in such black and white terms.

Agreed.  "Palestinian terrorism" is a classic chicken-or-the-egg puzzle that, well, this thread sure as shit hasn't sorted out.  I'm sure not gonna try again.

But I do agree with the proposition that "a world without Hamas is a better place."  I just ALSO think that if the way you get to that world is by committing atrocities that will echo for generations....you planted the seeds of "like Hamas, but with a different name" for generations to come.  Palestinians will refer to this genocide and the nakba in the same breath for decades to come.  And yeah, yeah, buckle up for the onslaught of Israel-stans insisting "BUT THIS WASN'T A GENOCIDE, WE DIDN'T KILL EVERY PALESTINIAN," blah blah blah.  Guess what, dudes?  If the living Palestinians and their descendants view it as a genocide, including for purposes of motive for future actions...then it's a genocide.  And when a people think like that . . . the odds of them just sitting back and not seeking vengeance for generations to come are ZERO.

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