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Posted
16 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

You’re insufferable.  Figure it out yourself dog. 

Getting emotional and calling someone a dog is an interesting way to cede that you don't have a meaningful response or counter position for why a ledger entry is a commodity or security

Posted

I am curious to see if quantum computing ends up being a systemic threat to proof of work algorithms, and BTC in particular. This is a good defcon talk on the topic of quantum attacks in general, timestamped to the brief blurb on how it impacts cryptocurrencies

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I looked into texit coin a few months ago. It's a scam, pure and simple.

 

chipmunk-dramatic.gif.696a386fa98c5275347c80fd4c49cd16.gif

thats some fine detective work. I hope it didnt take you more than 10 seconds

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

I am curious to see if quantum computing ends up being a systemic threat to proof of work algorithms, and BTC in particular. This is a good defcon talk on the topic of quantum attacks in general, timestamped to the brief blurb on how it impacts cryptocurrencies

 

Quite unlikely. And if there are significant quantum advances there will evidence of progress via hacking or cracking of other simpler encrypted networks.

A few details here from one of Satoshi's contemporaries.

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Vegas64 said:

I looked into texit coin a few months ago. It's a scam, pure and simple.

 

whew just in time, I was about to hit the buy button. thanks, I owe you one.

Posted

This analysis was pretty spot on. He called for 80 if 95 broke. We made it 80,700 and finally got decent bounce. I put a drop in the bucket and reset some small daily buys for fun.

 

On 11/14/2025 at 11:32 AM, Cyrus the Great said:

Always.

A lot of speculation about top being in. One on-chain analyst I follow has been tracking these things closely. He holds that 95k is the big line in sand, that it could be watch out below.

  Reveal hidden contents

G’day Folks,

In what feels like the twelfth consecutive month of asking ‘is the top already in?’…we still don’t actually have a firm resolution to that question.

We have historically large selling, soft demand from the ETFs, and Treasury Companies trading 90%+ off their ATHs. And yet the price is still hanging on by a thread within the extremely dense zone of demand that exists above $95k.

In my opinion, the price level which shifts the balance in favour of the bears is $95k, which is the floor of The HODLers Wall.

We’re now at a stage where 65% of all the USD invested in Bitcoin has a cost basis above $95k, and I’d imagine if we lost that level, things will probably deteriorate quickly.

Live Chart

One of the super-powers of analysing Bitcoin’s onchain data is we can model out, and visualise the price levels where a dense cluster of investor cost bases are located.

Given Bitcoin has experienced several cycle tops in the past, and since we can look at the historical supply distribution, today’s post will compare and analyse current market conditions, to those we saw in the 2017, and both of the 2021 cycle tops.

The goal is to look for both similarities and differences, which may give us a hint as to which direction this chopsolidation process ultimately resolves.

 

TL;DR Summary

We have seen two distinct types of Bitcoin cycle peak; the euphoric blow-off seen in 2017 and Apr-2021, and the second-wind peak in Nov-2021, and arguably today in 2025.

In the euphoric tops, the price rallied so hard,m and so fast, that it left large air-pockets where very few coins transacted. In both 20-17 and 2021, the bear markets that followed eventually filled these price zones back in.

We also saw over 75% of the invested USD value with a cost basis above those air-pockets owned entirely by Short-Term Holders, making for violent ends to those vertical price moves.

Unrealised losses on the sell-offs tended to reach over 15% of the market cap, which utterly extinguished what was left of bull market sentiment.

In the second wind peak of Nov-2021, the supply distribution was comparatively less concentrated at the top, and had a mix of both Long and Short-Term Holder value in the topping zone. Unrealised losses were around 5-7% in the 1.5-months that followed the ATH, and this is much more similar to our current structure.

There are several similarities between the Nov-2021 peak, and the current Nov-2025 market, namely the ‘top heavy’ supply distribution, and the way price is trading weakly off the back of it.

However, there are notable differences too, most importantly that the 2025 market is considerably less volatile, and the bears are having a much harder time making ground than they did in late-2021, where support just gave way.

The 2025 market is arguably much more stable and resilient than in 2021, which doesn’t negate the idea that the bears may succeed in taking us below $95k…but it doesn’t make it a forgone conclusion either.

Another interesting analysis going around is that we essentially seeing the "Bitcoin IPO moment" happening. Large amounts of old coins are being sold. One specific wallet worth $8B was moved and presumably sold. Basically, with the regulatory clarity now here large OG whales feel safe to actually sell large amounts of their coins. There's also the volume to eat them up. I think that makes sense and those will need to be digested before another leg up. You also have the people panic selling that think the 4 year cycle is still a thing and the top is in before an extended bear market. 

Personally, I think the 4 year cycles are done. We will not have to go 3+ years to get another ATH. I think the new institutional players in the market make it a new market that won't have the extreme booms and busts of the past that were driven by retail. We'll see.

 

 

12 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

But I’ve been told it’s a superior store of value

Thank you for this post. It means we're getting near a bottom.

I'm not very smart, but this explanation seems pretty feasible to me. 

 

 

Posted

Disclaimer-  I hold no bitcoin or crypto and as evidenced by previous posts am not knowledgeable in the space.

 

This got fed to me by Reddit yesterday, I assume because I looked up Bitcoin/USD price on google earlier in the day.

 

 

I would love to hear counter narratives from Crypto bulls, most specifically about electricity cost and miner death spiral.

Posted (edited)

I'm not a bull by any means, I have modest holdings and will be buying this decline soon not sure the entry point, catching a falling knife is hard.

I don't think that analysis takes into consideration the long term sentiment by some really well regarded wall streeters on BTC, it doesn't take into consideration the early stage and growing adoption through ETFs and retirement plans, the basic supply and demand issues either.  I read some analysis that the folks selling right now are new to the trade (last 3 years) and that there are still some very large investors that are just simply holding.  there is fierce resistance around 98,000 and so it is very likely a new ATH is not coming soon. There are short term and mid term technical trade issues that may cause additional drops and keep it under that 98,000 number. There is also a lot of fear re BTC right now because of this recent drop (Warren Buffett's investing advice comes to mind), but the macro reasons to like BTC for a long term hold store of wealth, appreciating value, are all still there.

btw none of that math looks terribly broken to me. you can still make over 3x your spend according to his math.  he's also laughably wrong about mining being a contagion for a global economic collapse. the economic collapse if one is coming is due to currency issues, tariffs, soft labor market with inflationary pressure, and the AI funny math with the big chip makers financing their own revenue. 

But for miners and chip purchases, the high end, AI semi industry is what is driving half of all GDP growth but that also includes all the companies trying to create new AI products and services. We all know those companies - off the top of my head companies I've watched for AI related reasons (excluding hardware mfgs) - palantir, snowflake, confulent, datadog, databricks, meta, amazon, alphabet, microsoft, etc. etc. there's no reliable data out there but miners appear to account for 25% of all chip sales (which is low, mid and high end chips) but that's not the market driver, the high end AI GPUs are the drivers and I don't think the miners have anything close to a large share of the high end NVIDA and AMD chips.  

His cash is king comment is equally as funny. Yes that's true, but cash is eroding at a hideous rate right now if you think about the complacency among those who can have an impact on inflation. staying in cash is stupid. gold is up 53% this year. Silver is up 70% this year. Cash? purchasing power of cash has declined almost 3% and that's assuming inflation data is accurate. certainly one can invest cash in cash equivalents, yay, we made 1% this year on cash.  

Basically, he's kind of an idiot.

Haters are always going to hate and they will be out in force right now, but nothing going on right now has an impact on the 5-10 year outlook and frankly the economic collapse that may occur should drive many to gold, silver, cash and BTC, not the other way around. 

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted

I'll add this, I invest in BTC through an ETF. when I added that to my portfolio I was stopped dead in my sign up tracks and told by an automated notice that BTC was expressly contrary to my stated goals (it wasn't really but I checked some box below being the most aggressive in my choices). I had to consent to continue and then I had another warning pop-up that said I should be aware of extreme volatility in the BTC trade. 

it is what it is, if you believe the marcro (I do), then BTC should be part of your portfolio just like gold and silver should be as well for the reasons why investors flock to precious metals.   

 

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Posted

For the first time since that douchenozzle Saylor decided he wanted to be the BTC King, the market cap of Strategy (MSTR) fell below the value of its BTC holdings last week. As of this morning according to their IR page, MSTR now trading 10% below the value of its BTC. Looking good Mike! Strong like bull!

image.png.a0c202c7c0074d186628f2fd03a50670.png

Posted
13 minutes ago, Blotto said:

For the first time since that douchenozzle Saylor decided he wanted to be the BTC King, the market cap of Strategy (MSTR) fell below the value of its BTC holdings last week. As of this morning according to their IR page, MSTR now trading 10% below the value of its BTC. Looking good Mike! Strong like bull!

image.png.a0c202c7c0074d186628f2fd03a50670.png

You're incorrect. The mNAV as it is also called, went below 1 in the last bear market. It made it down to 0.7.

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Disclaimer-  I hold no bitcoin or crypto and as evidenced by previous posts am not knowledgeable in the space.

 

This got fed to me by Reddit yesterday, I assume because I looked up Bitcoin/USD price on google earlier in the day.

 

 

I would love to hear counter narratives from Crypto bulls, most specifically about electricity cost and miner death spiral.

One interesting thing about the price moving in cycles is you see the same arguments repeatedly over time. I'm glad this has popped up so fast. It's almost like we're speed running everything.

There are whole articles debunking the miner death spiral. There are also multiple bear markets where it has been debunked in practice. I'm busy but maybe later I'll link a good explainer for you. 

Posted
1 hour ago, scramblyn said:

I don't think that analysis takes into consideration the long term sentiment by some really well regarded wall streeters on BTC

To your point, the fucking Treasury Secretary was at the opening of Pub Key in DC. It's the second location after the original in NYC.

 

 

Posted (edited)

99%+ of people who are heavily invested in bitcoin are doing so as an act of faith,  nothing more.  It has no meaningful function as a transactional currency.  It has no way of returning value other than price appreciation.  It acts as a store of value for believers.  You can pretty much say the same thing about gold and silver.  So whether you buy it or short it is determined by whether you think the faith will grow or collapse.  It’s purely a speculative investment.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Posted
25 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

You can pretty much say the same thing about gold and silver.

Gold and silver at least have practical uses and material properties that give them utility. Definitely still speculated upon which drives up the price, but there's actual products and services rendered with gold and silver

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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Gold and silver at least have practical uses and material properties that give them utility. Definitely still speculated upon which drives up the price, but there's actual products and services rendered with gold and silver

Sure.  Bitcoin is an actual product as well; it can be used as a transactional currency with a self maintained ledger.  But like gold and silver, such a large percentage of its value comes from speculative investment that the value from its actual utility is meaningless.

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Sure.  Bitcoin is an actual product as well; it can be used as a transactional currency with a self maintained ledger.  But like gold and silver, such a large percentage of its value comes from speculative investment that the value from its actual utility is meaningless.

This is my view 100% as long as speculation isn’t a dirty word, half of investments are speculation, the other half are split between say Buffett style buy good companies at low values and technical whatever algo hedgy shit MIT math grads do.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
29 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

This is my view 100% as long as speculation isn’t a dirty word, half of investments are speculation, the other half are split between say Buffett style buy good companies at low values and technical whatever algo hedgy shit MIT math grads do.

Well sure, but it’s what is driving the speculation.  For things like real estate and publicly traded companies, there’s underlying utility driving the speculative value.  For Bitcoin (and precious metals), it’s blind faith.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Well sure, but it’s what is driving the speculation.  For things like real estate and publicly traded companies, there’s underlying utility driving the speculative value.  For Bitcoin (and precious metals), it’s blind faith.

right but there's a ton of blind faith in auto invest 401k contributions to an S&P 500 mutual fund as an example. I'm not sure utility is as connected to the investment as it should across the board.  I've recently decided investing may be my retirement hobby and based on some professional background value investing (the buffett way) is something I could pull off to a modest level of success and I can say in that instance utility is 100% of the equation but just because it could be part of the equation doesn't mean it is for many many investors.  I think that's why the market sometimes acts like a coked out whore or a 5 year old scared of the dark, or a toddler throwing a tantrum tbqh.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
right but there's a ton of blind faith in auto invest 401k contributions to an S&P 500 mutual fund as an example. I'm not sure utility is as connected to the investment as it should across the board.  I've recently decided investing may be my retirement hobby and based on some professional background value investing (the buffett way) is something I could pull off to a modest level of success and I can say in that instance utility is 100% of the equation but just because it could be part of the equation doesn't mean it is for many many investors.  I think that's why the market sometimes acts like a coked out whore or a 5 year old scared of the dark, or a toddler throwing a tantrum tbqh.

The fact that the stock market has become an irrational meme-stock and utter speculation based investment is not a vindication of the completely speculative and irrational basis of crypto. It’s an indictment of both.
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