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Posted

A 👏🏻 7-1 👏🏻 Texas 👏🏻 is not 👏🏻 making 👏🏻 Atlanta 👏🏻 without 👏🏻 massive help 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A couple of things won’t happen:

1. One conference isn’t getting half the slots. The SEC isn’t going to get six in almost any scenario. At that point you’re leaving out either the second place Big Ten team, a two loss Notre Dame, or a Big XII runner up in favor of a sixth SEC team.
 

2. Two 11-1 SEC teams aren’t getting bumped for conference mates with worse overall records. MAYBE one if something happened like looking completely overmatched in a loss and another team played lights out in the CCG.

The CCG winner will almost certainly get a boost and will be in. The loser, if it takes them to two losses and not 3, and especially if they play well in the CCG. And they will figure out some reason to bump one or maybe two of the remaining SEC teams. The final outcome will be tied heavily to who advances to the CCG and the winner will get credit (relatively) and the loser (relatively) not get heavily punished. 

Being a blue blood won’t play a role. The committee last year elevated SMU over a 9-3 Bama with better wins and a tougher slate. Pretty good data point that they aren’t thinking about ratings or prestige. 

SOS/SOR will be talked about but message boards overindex this stuff and tend to overstate perceived differences in the extreme. The committee might forgive an extra loss for a team if the difference in SOS is something like 25 or 30 spots. If it’s two SEC teams with SOS at like 10 and 15, they take the better record absent something like a really bad H2H loss. SOS/SOR aren’t scientific and a gap of 5-10 spots contains a lot of noise and subjectivity. 
 

The last thing is that while “good” OOC losses might not be punished, that doesn’t mean they will be credited as a good win or even a regular win. Two very different things. At best the loss is memory holed.  

I think this is all on point. One thing I simply can't see happening is an SEC or B1G conference champion being left out for any reason, unless its absolutely clear. It can happen in the SEC this year but a 10-3 ccg winner vs a 11-1 non-participant when the SOS is seriously worse. Say, top 5-10 vs top 25-30 with zero good ooc wins. 

I agree that SOS is non-scientific and requires a great deal of perceived variance to be relevant. I think it is being pushed more for TV ratings than anything else. Few people but hardcore fans of a team playing, and equally hardcore college football junkies/gamblers care about a Sam Houston vs Texas. Say hypothetically Georgia, who gets a big boost this year from GT being truly relevant but with Marshall, Austin Peay and Charlotte most years Texas' close loss to OSU would look "better" than all of their wins if the conference teams they faced were equally off balance in ranking or perceived SOS.

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A 👏🏻 7-1 👏🏻 Texas 👏🏻 is not 👏🏻 making 👏🏻 Atlanta 👏🏻 without 👏🏻 massive help 

 

What are you trying to say? I'm very unclear about your message. 

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted
7 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I think this is all on point. One thing I simply can't see happening is an SEC or B1G conference champion being left out for any reason, unless its absolutely clear. It can happen in the SEC this year but a 10-3 ccg winner vs a 11-1 non-participant when the SOS is seriously worse. Say, top 5-10 vs top 25-30 with zero good ooc wins. 

I agree that SOS is non-scientific and requires a great deal of perceived variance to be relevant. I think it is being pushed more for TV ratings than anything else. Few people but hardcore fans of a team playing, and equally hardcore college football junkies/gamblers care about a Sam Houston vs Texas. Say hypothetically Georgia, who gets a big boost this year from GT being truly relevant but with Marshall, Austin Peay and Charlotte most years Texas' close loss to OSU would look "better" than all of their wins if the conference teams they faced were equally off balance in ranking or perceived SOS.

The champions will be in. It’s written in the rules, the five highest conference champions ranked by CFP get in. I suppose there’s a hypothetical world where a Big Ten or SEC champ falls past two G5 champs in rankings but not this year. When I said the CCG winner gets a boost, I mean in seeding vice non CCG winners who might have equal or one more loss. Should have been clearer on that. 
 

The thing about SOS is how heavily it’s hypothetical. “If this 3 loss team with a 10 SOS had the schedule of a 2 loss team with the 17 SOS, the records would be flipped.”  
 

No one knows that. Its all just vibes. It didn’t happen. The committee will just see teams with decently similar schedules and different records. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

What are you trying to say? I'm very unclear about your message. 

Sorry, maybe you thought I was calling a timeout?

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Posted
11 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

Games of consequence this weekend:

#5 Georgia @ Miss St.     11:00   ESPN

#7 BYU  @  #8 Tx Tech    11:00   ABC

#3 aggy @ #22  Missouri  2:30   ABC

LSU   @  #4  Bama             6:30   ABC

And all of them blacked out on YTTV. 😡

Posted
1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

What scenario has us playing in the CCG and who would our opponent likely be? Seems like having to play that game is a liability at this point 

In the above posted 4 way tie we would need 4 of 6 wins from the following— Vandy win its last 3, UF over Tenn,  MSU over Mizzou, and Arkansas over Mizzou

that would put us at 1 and Bama at 2

also I’m in the camp that there’s n9 chance 6 SEC get it, probably just the top 4 7-1 conference teams.   OU and UGA both get snubbed by a shitty schedule Dome, fuck Dome but fuck UGA and OU more.

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Posted

New CFP selection idea: at the end of the year feed all the results and analytics into AI and run every permutation of every possible FBS schedule for every team 200,000 times. The 12 teams with the most simulated wins are in.

I’m workshopping some ideas where we just eliminate the regular season entirely. Replace the games on TV-with curated AI-video matchups that are representative of the simulations. 
 

Drastically cut travel and event costs but still demand lucrative media rights. This is how disrupters think. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

Not that I don't believe you at all, but for my gratification and education, could you show your math? 

Of course, that outcome assumes certain results in games not involving Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, aggy, OU, and Georgia.  For example, if Florida loses to Tennessee, you end up with Bama and Ole Miss in the CCG.

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image.png.f419703912f16ee1784bb512ced1561a.png

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Posted
2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

New CFP selection idea: at the end of the year feed all the results and analytics into AI and run every permutation of every possible FBS schedule for every team 200,000 times. The 12 teams with the most simulated wins are in.

I’m workshopping some ideas where we just eliminate the regular season entirely. Replace the games on TV-with curated AI-video matchups that are representative of the simulations. 
 

Drastically cut travel and event costs but still demand lucrative media rights. This is how disrupters think. 

As long as the billionaire media power brokers use extortion to disrupt and over charge all consumers for the AI games, I'm in. 

Posted
3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The champions will be in. It’s written in the rules, the five highest conference champions ranked by CFP get in. I suppose there’s a hypothetical world where a Big Ten or SEC champ falls past two G5 champs in rankings but not this year. When I said the CCG winner gets a boost, I mean in seeding vice non CCG winners who might have equal or one more loss. Should have been clearer on that. 
 

The thing about SOS is how heavily it’s hypothetical. “If this 3 loss team with a 10 SOS had the schedule of a 2 loss team with the 17 SOS, the records would be flipped.”  
 

No one knows that. Its all just vibes. It didn’t happen. The committee will just see teams with decently similar schedules and different records. 

Well, I completely brain farted on the CCG champs getting auto bids. It was early, I was tired or something.. perhaps its just my on going regards.

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