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Week Four CFB Preview: The Eyes of the World Turn to Illinois @ Indiana


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Posted
1 minute ago, DFW Horn said:

Lagway threw what, 5 picks last week against USF? Woof

Holy shit, USC has a 9am PST kick next week? The B1G just bent them over.

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He threw 5 picks against LSU. Against USF he just looked regular shitty.

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Posted
24 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Friday

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State (-12.5) (7:30/6:30 ESPN): Putting this on national television is a Sickos move and Disney knows it. How low can Gundy go?

Iowa (-3.5) @ Rutgers (8/7 FOX): Ferentz vs. Schiano! Guys who have definitely coached a long time! Piscataway, New Jersey! Feel the B1G-citement.

The kind of night where you don’t mind having plans or your spouse dragging you to dinner and a movie 

Posted
14 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Holy shit, USC has a 9am PST kick next week? The B1G just bent them over.

And Michigan state has an 11pm eastern time kick off lol

The B1G and ACC are stupid 

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Posted

Far more interested in Tech-Utah than Illinois-Indiana. 
 

I don’t trust Bielema and Indiana just can’t stack up against Oregon and PSU. In a league with Big XII parity coaching carries the day and I really like those two staffs. 

Posted
18 hours ago, texifornia said:

 

#22 Auburn @ #11 Oklahoma (-6) (3:30/2:30 ABC): It's the Jackson Arnold Bowl as Hugh Freeze takes on the Sooners. Barf. Will Auburn learn from Michigan's many, many mistakes? No, Huge Freezer is too stupid, unfortunately gooners will roll.

Florida @ #4 Miami (-8.5) (7:30/6:30 ABC): Remember when we all thought DJ Lagway was good? He is talented no doubt, but that doesn't mean good. Maybe he's having some of the same issues as Arch. I hope it takes longer than 2 weeks to get them corrected.

 

 

Posted

Beyond the CFP stuff, in terms of letting your eyeballs simply observe football, this is also a well-balanced and truly quadbox-worthy Saturday. Three must-monitor games in each time range, plus whatever is happening simultaneously in your team's conference, starting with the early round:

The Big 12's current brand: a whole bunch of good teams, but maybe only one elite at a time. Among the undefeateds, Texas Tech at Utah (-3 per BetMGM) could help establish an actual upper class.

The 104th Iron Skillet battle between 2-0 TCU (-7) and 2-1 SMU will be the last, at least for now. Dave Wilson on the history of this rivalry, once the biggest deal in all of football.

2-1 Arkansas (-7.5) at 3-0 Memphis is one of two games in which a top-tier contender for the G5's CFP spot could snatch Shiniest Takedown status away from 2-1 USF.

The middle of Saturday:

Auburn at Oklahoma (-6.5) will establish a 4-0 SEC dark horse (and probably hurl the newly 3-1 coach back into hot-seat frenzies), and it'll also add to the 1989-2025 history of QB revenge games as Auburn's Jackson Arnold returns to Norman.

If 3-0 Nebraska wins at home against 2-1 Michigan (-2.5), expect some chatter about the Wolverines' creative timing of head coach Sherrone Moore's suspension. Missing the Big Ten opener?

3-0 Tulane at 3-0 Ole Miss (-12.5) is the other game in which a lil guy could become a near-favorite to make the CFP. And hey, the Rebels also appeared in one of those dark-horse lists up top. Former SEC rivals!

And from the East Coast evening onward:

Indiana (-6) is in the game of the week? Sure, what else is new? The Hoosiers must be playing Ohio Sta— ... wait, Illinois is also in the game of the week? Scott Dochterman on the series' biggest game in at least 115 years.

2-1 Florida's (+7.5) games will appear in the Watch Grid until Billy Napier wins enough of them to somehow keep his job again or loses enough of them to get fired. Though the coaching carousel is technically underway, it won't really get cranking until a job this prominent opens.

We will be watching 3-0 Michigan State (+18.5) play football at 2 a.m. ET. This affront to nature was brought to you by the Big Ten's love of money.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6641202/2025/09/18/college-football-schedule-week-4-indiana-until-saturday/

 

Screenshot 2025-09-18 130013.png

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Posted
20 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

USC has a 9am PST kick next week? The B1G just bent them over.

Yeah, the BIG has made it clear where the West Coast teams sit in the pecking order with the schedule. Of their 9 BIG games, Washington plays FIVE teams coming off of a bye (including OSU and Illinois, who both travel to UW).  Oregon has four (including, conveniently, Penn State, Indiana and Iowa).  That’s not a random effect of the schedule generator. Not to mention the 9am games. 

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, texifornia said:

Arch Manning is only the second worst SEC QB, so that's something!

Thursday

Rice (-4.5) @ Charlotte (7:30/6:30 ESPN): The Owls are favored away from home, and a Rice win is always fun. Hoot hoot!

Friday

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State (-12.5) (7:30/6:30 ESPN): Putting this on national television is a Sickos move and Disney knows it. How low can Gundy go?

Iowa (-3.5) @ Rutgers (8/7 FOX): Ferentz vs. Schiano! Guys who have definitely coached a long time! Piscataway, New Jersey! Feel the B1G-citement.

Saturday

Early Games

#17 Texas Tech @ #16 Utah (-4) (12/11 FOX): An excellent Big Noon Saturday warmup! The Red Raiders have obliterated the Little Sisters of the Poor (sorry Maalik). Utah's marquee destruction of UCLA already looks less impressive than their win over Wyoming. Which team will handle real competition better?

SMU @ TCU (-4.5) (12/11 ESPN2): It's the last Battle for the Iron Skillet for the foreseeable future (booooo). TCU has had a fun season, starting with the razing of Chapel Bill. SMU meanwhile lost to Baylor and messed around with Missouri State. Rivalries are funny things though!

Syracuse @ Clemson (-19) (12/11 ESPN): We've had Dabo's annual press conference blowup before he grimly marches through a bad ACC and makes the Playoff. It's an annual tradition.

Oregon State @ #6 Oregon (-32) (3/2 BTN): Before the mid-afternoon slate begins, check out the pageantry around Civil War. Shame about what's happened to Oregon State - beautiful campus, big stadium, good fans.

Mid-Afternoon

#22 Auburn @ #11 Oklahoma (-6) (3:30/2:30 ABC): It's the Jackson Arnold Bowl as Hugh Freeze takes on the Sooners. Barf. Will Auburn learn from Michigan's many, many mistakes?

#21 Michigan (-1.5) @ Nebraska (3:30/2:30 CBS): Speaking of Michigan, which underperforming blueblood led by a much-hyped QB will prevail in Lincoln? I trust Nebraska's coaching staff much more, but UMich has talent.

Tulane @ #13 Ole Miss (-10.5) (3:30/2:30 ESPN): Tulane whipped the Duke team that stole their QB and the Wave head into Oxford on a high. How good is Ole Miss this year? We don't exactly know yet.

North Carolina @ UCF (-3) (3:30/2:30 FOX): Fox grabbed the chance to air Bill Belichick losing to Scott Frost. Which coach is more over the hill?

Primetime

#9 Illinois @ #19 Indiana (-5.5) (7:30/6:30 NBC): The most relevant Playoff rivalry of the day is Illinois versus Indiana, just like we all expected! Bielema versus Cignetti is an excellent coaching matchup, and Bloomington, one of America's best college towns, is going to be rocking.

Florida @ #4 Miami (-8.5) (7:30/6:30 ABC): Remember when we all thought DJ Lagway was good?

Arizona State @ Baylor (-3) (7:30/6:30 FOX): A huge game in the Conference of Parity. ASU got punished for forgetting to show up in the first half in Starkville, and Baylor is coming off a nice win at SMU and a relaxing walk against Samford. Will the Sun Devils recover to relevancy?

BYU (-6) @ East Carolina (7:30/6:30 ESPN2): What a fanbase matchup! The Mormons head to a rocking Rowdy Dowdy at night in a popular G5 upset pick.

Washington (-19) @ Washington State (7:30/6:30 CBS): Another fantastic Pac-10 rivalry sadly devalued by realignment. This Apple Cup should be a light workout in Pullman for the Huskies.

Sam Houston State @ #8 Texas (-42) (8/7 SECN+): Yeah, sure. At least the defense is fun to watch.

RIP Pac-12 After Dark

California (-13.5) @ San Diego State (10:30/9:30 CBSSN): 3-0 Cal might be actually decent this year. But first, they have to travel to a historically solid in-state G5.

Michigan State @ #25 USC (11/10 FOX): Pure Sickos timeslot. Can USC and Illinois set up a monster matchup in Champaign?

 

 

Always appreciate these posts, TexiPaloAltoDaytonOxfordHarlemBrooklynTriangle.

Edited by cafe society
Left out Brooklyn
Posted

On the Line: Is Texas Tech for real? We'll find out this week.

image.thumb.jpeg.480984a00b9e72a6d7bb34f3530c63f0.jpeg

By Zach Barnett    Sep 18, 2025 

A possible Big 12 championship preview in Salt Lake City. Usually, when we do the "irresistible force meets immovable object" thing in regards to Texas Tech, it's their passing offense against someone else's pass defense. Never has the immovable object been the Red Raiders' run defense, whose high point over the past nine seasons was a No. 40 ranking, and typically finished in the 80s. But here we are.

Three games in, Texas Tech boasts the nation's No. 2 run defense. Admittedly, those games were against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State -- not exactly murder's row. Still, those teams combined for 124 yards and one touchdown on 82 attempts; Tech's 1.51 yards per carry average leads the nation among all teams that have played three games, and they're one of 11 teams (min.: 3 games) yet to allow a 20-yard rush. 

On the opposite side of the line of scrimmage, Utah is pounding out 290 rushing yards per game (seventh nationally), 6.0 per carry (third among all teams with at least 140 attempts) and 11 touchdowns. 

Put it this way: an average game for Utah's rushing offense is double what Texas Tech's allowed all season. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

The question is: Which unit do you trust more? No. 16 Utah's offense is run by the same principles that finished second in the nation last season at New Mexico, and it's simply hard to know what to think about the No. 17 Tech run defense given: A) the lack of competition they've faced thus far, and B) the fact that none of their D-line starters played for Tech last season. We'll begin to learn a lot more starting at 10 a.m. local time on Saturday. 

An awkward reunion in Norman. To be clear, both sides are going to come away from Saturday's game happy with their respective decisions. Even if they'd wanted him back, it's far from a guarantee that Jackson Arnold would've returned to Oklahoma. 

“The culmination of everything that happened — the injuries, the offensive struggles. The fact you’re going to have your fourth offensive coordinator in three years, whether you stay or whether you go. And also some of the toxic things that were said to him, mostly by students on campus, and that’s kind of hard to brush aside. It’s easy to tell someone, ‘Just don’t listen.’ But he’s 20 years old. He’s going to listen to stuff like that," Arnold's father, Todd, told SoonerScoop (no relation). 

“I think, unfortunately, he didn’t see a future down the road at Oklahoma.”

To quote our great modern poet Taylor Swift: 

That old familiar body ache
The snaps from the same little breaks in your soul
You know when it's time to go

But all the equity built over Oklahoma's outstanding start would be gone if the quarterback Brent Venables cast aside comes back in and beats him. This word is overused in sports, but I can't think of any other to describe it -- losing to Arnold on their own field would be embarrassing for Oklahoma. 

The Iron Skillet goes back in the cupboard. TCU and SMU will meet for the 104th and final scheduled time in Fort Worth on Saturday (noon ET, ESPN2), and it's a shame because the rivalry hasn't been this good since the days of Doak Walker and Davey O'Brien. After decades of TCU domination, SMU won last year's meeting 66-42, and it's an even 3-3 over their last six. Add in the fact that this the only example on record of a coaching leaving one rival for another, and it's a real shame TCU decided to stop playing SMU so it can instead face the likes of Stanford, Duke and Purdue. 

“They’ve chosen not to play anymore,” SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee said. “We’ll see what the future holds. But we’re playing this Saturday.”

For its part, at least TCU has been honest about their decision to big-brother their way out of playing SMU (the Frogs lead the series 54-43-7 and went 17-2 from 1999-2018). 

"Everybody talks a lot about it, but I mean, I've been to many of those games and they haven't sold out," TCU head coach Sonny Dykes said. "And so it never seemed like it was a big deal until we weren't going to play the game anymore."

And to be fair, he's probably right. This game would not be getting the attention it has if it were not the final scheduled game. But, man, is TCU going to look weak if they don't win on Saturday. 

Additional Games: 

-- Arkansas at Memphis (noon ET, ABC): When does a trap game become so hyped up as a trap game that it can no longer be considered a trap? I don't know the answer. But I know enough people have pointed at this game as a trap that there's no way Arkansas can travel into a raucous Liberty Bowl expecting anything other than a fist fight. Sandwiched between last week's disappointing Ole Miss loss and next week's visit from Notre Dame, Arkansas should be less focused on the environment and more focused on a Memphis team -- who beat Troy in their own house more impressively than Clemson did at Tiger Stadium -- that can absolutely win this game.

-- Syracuse at Clemson (noon ET, ESPN): Did you catch Dabo's 50-minute gaslighting session this week? Apparently winning a bunch of titles eight and nine years ago means Clemson should accept mediocrity today. I wonder if Dabo holds his players to the same standard he wants Clemson fans to hold him to.

-- Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (3 p.m. ET, BTN): Oregon is a 5-touchdown favorite in a Civil War being played on Big Ten Network. Oregon has long held the upper hand in this rivalry, but the previous statement summarizes the state of things here.

-- Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Lane Kiffin dished out his rat poison to Tulane, but the Green Wave won't bite. (Fun fact: waves don't have teeth.) This will be a 4-quarter game where both teams top 28 points, but the feeling is the home team makes too many plays in the end.

-- No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Says a lot about the state of Nebraska football that a home game against a true freshman quarterback feels like a "prove it" moment, but here we are. Dylan Raiola's numbers are way up from his true freshman season, but those numbers were largely built on performances against Akron and Houston Christian. Michigan is actually the favorite here. Game on the line, who do you trust more to make a play: Raiola or Bryce Underwood? 

-- North Carolina at UCF (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox): In 1998-99, Bill Belichick was the New York Jets defensive coordinator, leading a unit that included safety Scott Frost. Legend says they often spoke with great anticipation toward their inevitable collision as head coaches at the Bounce House. 

-- South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): After I touted them as an SEC title contender earlier this week, it would make perfect sense for Mizzou to turn around and lose at home to LaNorris Sellers-less Gamecocks team. 

-- Boise State at Air Force (7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): Doesn't feel right that this is just the 13th meeting between these two, right? The Broncos have won six of the last seven.

-- Florida at No. 4 Miami (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): This Florida team is too good to go out like this, right? They actually beat South Florida and LSU on a down-to-down basis, but lost the "don't make critical mistakes" battle by about 50. This team is simply too talented to be 1-3. 

-- BYU at East Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): BYU is a 6.5-point favorite. I like East Carolina to win outright.

-- Arizona State at Baylor (7:30 p.m. ET, Fox): Baylor's Sawyer Robertson is two yards off the national lead in passing yards, while Arizona State allowed Mississippi State to turn 19 completions into 279 yards and three touchdowns. The Sun Devils limited a potent Texas State passing attack last week, so we'll see if that fix travels. 

-- Michigan State at No. 25 USC (11 p.m. ET, Fox): That's right, a conference game that starts at 11 p.m. body-clock time for the Spartans. Fox doesn't hand that money out for free, after all.

 

If you'd rather preview Week 4 in video form, well, today's your lucky day.

 

Posted
18 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

-- BYU at East Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): BYU is a 6.5-point favorite. I like East Carolina to win outright.

East Carolina is a solid team and BYU is starting a true freshman QB, but BYU's defense is looking elite these days. 

After week 2 (we had a bye week 3), we led the country in points allowed per game (1.5). Over the last 3 games (includes the bowl game), we are allowing an average of 5.3 rushing yards per GAME. That includes 2 P4 wins (Colorado last year and Stanford this year).

BYU defense should be able to limit points and our offense is good enough to get the job done. Freshman QB is progressing well. This will be a big test for him tho. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Crockett said:

East Carolina is a solid team and BYU is starting a true freshman QB, but BYU's defense is looking elite these days. 

After week 2 (we had a bye week 3), we led the country in points allowed per game (1.5). Over the last 3 games (includes the bowl game), we are allowing an average of 5.3 rushing yards per GAME. That includes 2 P4 wins (Colorado last year and Stanford this year).

BYU defense should be able to limit points and our offense is good enough to get the job done. Freshman QB is progressing well. This will be a big test for him tho. 

ECU football games are a blast (I have never seen a drunker student body, and I've been to a lot of college football games), and their admin is really hyping this one up as a big nationally televised showcase, so they want to turn Dowdy-Ficklen into a cauldron. The red No Quarter flags coming out in the fourth quarter is an awesome tradition.

Two teams I like and have lots of connections to, so I'm happy either way!

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Posted
On 9/18/2025 at 12:01 PM, texifornia said:

Beyond the CFP stuff, in terms of letting your eyeballs simply observe football, this is also a well-balanced and truly quadbox-worthy Saturday. Three must-monitor games in each time range, plus whatever is happening simultaneously in your team's conference, starting with the early round:

The Big 12's current brand: a whole bunch of good teams, but maybe only one elite at a time. Among the undefeateds, Texas Tech at Utah (-3 per BetMGM) could help establish an actual upper class.

The 104th Iron Skillet battle between 2-0 TCU (-7) and 2-1 SMU will be the last, at least for now. Dave Wilson on the history of this rivalry, once the biggest deal in all of football.

2-1 Arkansas (-7.5) at 3-0 Memphis is one of two games in which a top-tier contender for the G5's CFP spot could snatch Shiniest Takedown status away from 2-1 USF.

The middle of Saturday:

Auburn at Oklahoma (-6.5) will establish a 4-0 SEC dark horse (and probably hurl the newly 3-1 coach back into hot-seat frenzies), and it'll also add to the 1989-2025 history of QB revenge games as Auburn's Jackson Arnold returns to Norman.

If 3-0 Nebraska wins at home against 2-1 Michigan (-2.5), expect some chatter about the Wolverines' creative timing of head coach Sherrone Moore's suspension. Missing the Big Ten opener?

3-0 Tulane at 3-0 Ole Miss (-12.5) is the other game in which a lil guy could become a near-favorite to make the CFP. And hey, the Rebels also appeared in one of those dark-horse lists up top. Former SEC rivals!

And from the East Coast evening onward:

Indiana (-6) is in the game of the week? Sure, what else is new? The Hoosiers must be playing Ohio Sta— ... wait, Illinois is also in the game of the week? Scott Dochterman on the series' biggest game in at least 115 years.

2-1 Florida's (+7.5) games will appear in the Watch Grid until Billy Napier wins enough of them to somehow keep his job again or loses enough of them to get fired. Though the coaching carousel is technically underway, it won't really get cranking until a job this prominent opens.

We will be watching 3-0 Michigan State (+18.5) play football at 2 a.m. ET. This affront to nature was brought to you by the Big Ten's love of money.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6641202/2025/09/18/college-football-schedule-week-4-indiana-until-saturday/

 

Screenshot 2025-09-18 130013.png

Very mediocre slate  

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