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Posted
18 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Plus we probably have JV coming back for one last hurrah for like 10m. 

That very much remains to be seen-moreover, it need not be one or the other.  We have a lot of innings that need to be replaced and one of those starters needs to be of the type can follow Brown in a short series.  
 

I don’t think 2025 Verlander is a good bet for that (another way to say it that his declining velocity and pitch efficacy are fine to fill a few innings but aren’t good bets against a team grinding out at bats in a five game series).  
 

As far as the contract, it’s effectively a one year deal for $21m.  That fits fine in our budget and it’s just a short-term commitment.  @Wulaw Hornis going to come in here and start talking about the value/cost of a win and @Snake Diggity will talk about the presumed value of the prospects, but the cold reality is that the price of acquisition doesn’t truly matter if you don’t have alternatives available.  

Posted

I think it reads that the Sox are taking on a 1 year 31m deal + either a 10m buyout or another mutual year at 30m. That's 41 million minimum for 1 year? Seems a bit too pricey for a 4.28 ERA to me. But maybe he will have a big year with a new club that doesn't suck. 

JV is just for fun to me. I figured this would be his last year and he would retire with the Astros who he won 2 rings and 4 pennants. Yeah he's like a 5-6th rotation guy, but he's a big name and probably worth signing just for tickets and merch sales. Hopefully a gesture like that would mean he goes into the Hall with an Astros cap instead of a Tigers. Not sure how that is decided, but it is something to consider as a club.

Posted
4 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Damn, Sonny Gray off the board-to the Red Sox for a lotto ticket hard throwing lefty 2024 5th rounder along with $20 m to offset his salary.  That’s a fucking steal and Brown should have been all over it.  

Gabriel Iglesias No GIF by Netflix Is a Joke

Posted
42 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

I think it reads that the Sox are taking on a 1 year 31m deal + either a 10m buyout or another mutual year at 30m. That's 41 million minimum for 1 year?

You’re omitting the $20m St. Louis is sending the Sox.  That’s a huge part.

43 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

he's a big name and probably worth signing just for tickets and merch sales.

You know what else sells merchandise?  A World Series championship.

  • Drool 1
Posted
2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

That very much remains to be seen-moreover, it need not be one or the other.  We have a lot of innings that need to be replaced and one of those starters needs to be of the type can follow Brown in a short series.  
 

I don’t think 2025 Verlander is a good bet for that (another way to say it that his declining velocity and pitch efficacy are fine to fill a few innings but aren’t good bets against a team grinding out at bats in a five game series).  
 

As far as the contract, it’s effectively a one year deal for $21m.  That fits fine in our budget and it’s just a short-term commitment.  @Wulaw Hornis going to come in here and start talking about the value/cost of a win and @Snake Diggity will talk about the presumed value of the prospects, but the cold reality is that the price of acquisition doesn’t truly matter if you don’t have alternatives available.  

Yeah prospects have no value and teams with the mentality that the farm system can be bludgeoned and ignored usually win a lot.

Posted
50 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Yeah prospects have no value and teams with the mentality that the farm system can be bludgeoned and ignored usually win a lot.

Oh come on, I wouldn’t put the value at $0, my point is that presuming a prospect rated at “50” on a bunch of prospect lists has value worth $20m or whatever and therefore should be seen as a match for a 1.5 WAR MLB player isn’t always a good way to evaluate player acquisition merits.  

Posted
16 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Oh come on, I wouldn’t put the value at $0, my point is that presuming a prospect rated at “50” on a bunch of prospect lists has value worth $20m or whatever and therefore should be seen as a match for a 1.5 WAR MLB player isn’t always a good way to evaluate player acquisition merits.  

That goes both ways.  Using war to evaluate any given player is just as fallible as using prospect grades to evaluate prospects, so evaluating trades in the moment is always extremely subjective.  But I don’t know what your intention was in tagging me, alluding to the idea that prioritizing maintaining a healthy farm system runs contrary to winning.  It doesn’t.  Teams that don’t prioritize the farm might have a stretch of winning, but the only guarantee is that they won’t be winning much longer.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Sonny Gray trade is official:

Red Sox get:
RHP Sonny Gray
Cash

Cardinals get:
LHP Brandon Clarke
RHP Richard Fitts
Cash or PTBNL

Pretty even trade, probably good for both sides.  Cards ate $20M but get back a graduated fringe top 100 SP prospect and a SP prospect who was top 5 in Boston’s system.  Sox get a rental ToR and only have to pay him $20M, but gave up 2 good young pitching prospects.

Posted
11 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Pretty even trade, probably good for both sides.  Cards ate $20M but get back a graduated fringe top 100 SP prospect and a SP prospect who was top 5 in Boston’s system.  Sox get a rental ToR and only have to pay him $20M, but gave up 2 good young pitching prospects.

Ergo sounds like we couldn't have done it even if we wanted to 

Posted
19 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Ergo sounds like we couldn't have done it even if we wanted to 

Houston could’ve gotten it done but the equivalent would have been Spencer Arrighetti and Ethan Pecko.  I wouldn’t have liked that for Houston, especially considering it would have left them with less than $10M in payroll flexibility still looking for another SP, a backup C, and potentially a LH bat and 7th inning RP.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
29 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

i have faith in our young arms 

I do think that by July Houston’s SP could be dramatically improved with internal options.  I’m really high on Blubaugh, Pecko, and Brito, but there’s another half dozen guys I’m not that high on that a lot of other people really like: Ullola, Nezuh, Tredwell, Hicks, Mayer, Santos.  Houston hasn’t had this kind of upper level minors pitching depth in a few years.

Posted (edited)

We need bats. The pitching staff was not the reason we missed the playoffs. It was the offense and Espada's shitty managing. We can really only fix one of those things this offseason, and not Brendan fucking Donovan. Really the only way to fix this mess is to trade away Pena, Walker, and Alvarez and take a year to figure out the pitching, recalibrate the payroll, and determine which of our prospects and the ones we get in trades can reopen a competitive window. Going into next season with the same general roster is going to push us further behind and closer to the final years of Drayton.

Edited by HtownHorn
Posted
1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

We need bats. The pitching staff was not the reason we missed the playoffs. It was the offense and Espada's shitty managing. We can really only fix one of those things this offseason, and not Brendan fucking Donovan. Really the only way to fix this mess is to trade away Pena, Walker, and Alvarez and take a year to figure out the pitching, recalibrate the payroll, and determine which of our prospects and the ones we get in trades can reopen a competitive window. Going into next season with the same general roster is going to push us further behind and closer to the final years of Drayton.

 

1. injuries 

2. injuries 

3. non injured players not hitting like injured players 

4. injuries 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

1. injuries 

2. injuries 

3. non injured players not hitting like injured players 

4. injuries 

5. MLB all time record for injuries

6. Head trainer fired

Posted
1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

1. injuries 

2. injuries 

3. non injured players not hitting like injured players 

4. injuries 

Career seasons from Pena and Meyers. They could revert to average to below average like they did when they returned from their injuries. Alvarez has never played 150 games in a season, expecting him to finally get healthy as he approaches 30 is what retards do. Altuve and Walker both showed signs of age related production drop-offs. We can expect Smith to get better in year two, Diaz has become a dependable 3 WAR player, and Paredes is likely in the same area as well. Doesn't seem like the lineup is solved, not too mention the imbalance of it and the health of it going into the ST is also in question as both Alvarez and Paredes are behind schedule.

Posted
3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Career seasons from Pena and Meyers. They could revert to average to below average like they did when they returned from their injuries. Alvarez has never played 150 games in a season, expecting him to finally get healthy as he approaches 30 is what retards do. Altuve and Walker both showed signs of age related production drop-offs. We can expect Smith to get better in year two, Diaz has become a dependable 3 WAR player, and Paredes is likely in the same area as well. Doesn't seem like the lineup is solved, not too mention the imbalance of it and the health of it going into the ST is also in question as both Alvarez and Paredes are behind schedule.

2023-2024 avg fWAR vs 2025 vs 2026 projection (FGDC):

Diaz 2.7 : 1.6 : 2.5

Walker 3.5 : 1.1 : 1.6

Altuve 4.0 : 2.1 2.8

Pena 2.7 : 5.7 : 3.8

Paredes 3.8 : 2.5 : 1.9

Correa 3.0 : 2.6 : 3.6

Meyers 1.5 : 2.3 : 1.3

Alvarez 4.3 : 0.5 : 5.0

 

Of their top 8 position players, 5 of them are projected to outperform 2025, and 6 of them should be expected to outperform 2025 if they revert to their 2023-2024 mean.  Those 8 guys currently project to be 4 wins better than last season combined, and that’s with Paredes and Meyers ceding a lot of playing time to lesser players.

Yordan is one of the 10 best hitters in baseball.  No team can plan around missing a guy like that for a big chunk of the season.  Dodgers ain’t winning shit without Ohtani, Blue Jays aren’t in the WS without Vlad.  2025 was fucked because the Astros lost the one guy (Alvarez) they couldn’t afford to lose, and the problem was exacerbated by other guys getting hurt and/or not performing.

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