Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
9 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I'm working towards my phd in History, and so I've had to step back a tad on actively posting (but still been keeping up with everything). Last assignment was submitted until Spring, so I have some of my time back:

https://www.threads.com/@bohuslavska_kate/post/DPmEoExjNM1?xmt=AQF0hcZ1abd971p7E5WPBwuOIGljshGfCzBTJyjG86wsjQ

Occupied Feodosiya. Burning oil depot close up 🔥

 

https://www.threads.com/@spravdi.gov.ua/post/DPlXM6yCK7b?xmt=AQF086fDI1jqZcI6oLx34PWGfXvJl4zj1Q1j5zVWNUFDGA

Russian stock market crashes -4% on the day as the fuel crisis begins to paralyze the economy.


^Catastophic for that tank, hard to tell how much damage is on the one in the distance. It also looks like it's starting to really bite
 

We were counting on you! 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This came up in the AI thread, and I saw it when it originally came out, but imagine this stuff just a few months from now and how fast it can move around social media.

 

I really wish people (read: decision makers at tech entities and media platforms) would put more effort into information assurance and validation. Hell, even just PGP signing videos/content from original sources would go a loooooong way to proving authenticity. 

Edited by Captainant
  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Posted

https://www.threads.com/@bohuslavska_kate/post/DPmLzN1jG3l?xmt=AQF0hbFy3EQk-DPoTuCxB1zvVwAno85rkyOayZLinpnjkg

Former Smolensk official Oleg Ivanov burnt in a camper fire on his birthday.
According to reports, his body was found in a burned-out van. Ivanov had previously overseen youth affairs and patriotic education in the Smolensk region, Russia.
Burned out at work, huh? 🙃

https://www.threads.com/@24hoursofukraine/post/DPlgK_YiLNt?xmt=AQF04MEtNacWp6jnvDdEqCdK1jojWiq6I48g44BdDZxFdQ

🦩🔥💥Flamingo missiles were reportedly launched at the location of an FSB base on the occupied Crimean peninsula.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 2
Posted
Quote

Just sent out this free post. Something notable has happened in the last few months (particularly since the Putin-Trump love fest in Alaska). GOP public opinion in the USA, which Trump had almost singlehandedly made Ukraine-skeptical earlier, has moved away from Putin and towards Ukraine.

Quote

The most frustrating thing about this war is that the US could step in forcefully now with harsh sanctions against Russia and a large military package for Ukraine with ranged weapons as the centrepiece, and the war would end soon with a Russian defeat. All it requires is the determination to do the right thing. The Russian military is beatable and the Russian economy is weakening.

Something Interesting Is Happening With GOP Public Opinion - Phillips P. OBrien

I do think a lot of people are starting to realize just how serious Ukraine's strategy against Russian oil & gas infrastructure is, and how much it's paying off.

We like to joke around here about everything being two weeks out, but if we are starting to see gas shortages/fuel rationing already (and have been for a bit), and if Russia is having to import gasoline from China, and we see delivery trucks/long-haul trucks being idled, and Ukraine keeps plinking away at refineries and pumping stations and other facilities, it's going to start affecting delivery of food as well. Another 2 or 4 weeks of this stuff means fewer air defense systems operating, more shortages at a much larger scale, even more of a repair backlog (due to lack of parts and probably manpower that's been shipped off to the front).

Residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg can probably weather fuel shortages for the short term better than a lot of Russian cities, given they have mass transit systems in place, but let's see what a disruption of food supplies can do, as well as what the good ole Russian black market is going to do for fuel and food.  And that's before we get into the Russian winter.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 6
Posted
49 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

but let's see what a disruption of food supplies can do, as well as what the good ole Russian black market is going to do for fuel and food.  And that's before we get into the Russian

One thing that we know for sure, and that is that the MOD will be getting first priority on the fuel.  The fuel that is scarce. The fuel that is increasingly expensive. The fuel that the private sector requires so that companies don’t go out of business because they can’t deliver products or services.

But this is Russia. And in Russia, when you have a product that you can sell at an inflated price that everyone will buy, you can bet your ass that Russian generals are selling military gas as quickly and in such volume as people can pay them.   

Some of them will get rich before they fly out of windows on their birthdays, but this continuing fuel shortage scenario will continue to be the precursor to more significant economic collapse.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 4
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

, but this continuing fuel shortage scenario will continue to be the precursor to more significant economic collapse.

Even if Russian trucking starts to shut down, I'm sure the major cities are heavily supplied by rail, but somebody has to get the food from the farmes to the rail depots, or at least to the food processing plants/warehouses and then to the rail depots. And from the rail depots to the grocery stores. When does that start to break down?

It's like Hemingway said: "How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked. "Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

When public transportation starts to break down and buses do not show up and people can’t get to work or to the grocery store or to take care of their ill, elderly parents, things will start to get exponentially worse.   Because when companies have financial problems, laying off employees is the quickest short-term way to stay alive.

I assume that Russian HR is similar to European HR, with the exception that Russian HR will probably accept bribes to avoid the first layoff.  Firing employees who don’t come to work seems to be low hanging HR fruit, even when they aren’t coming to work because there are no buses to take them to work.  

Maybe someone should create The Great Russian Enshittening thread so that we can track the myriad of ways that the country is falling apart separate from the military and diplomatic focus of this one.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Even if Russian trucking starts to shut down, I'm sure the major cities are heavily supplied by rail, but somebody has to get the food from the farmes to the rail depots, or at least to the food processing plants/warehouses and then to the rail depots. And from the rail depots to the grocery stores. When does that start to break down?

It's like Hemingway said: "How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked. "Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

Its always interesting how much people undervalue or simply don't grasp/know about the intermodal aspects of distribution lines. Yes, you can send gas via pipeline to a refinery or ship wheat to a port. From the port you need a train for the wheat/oil the train stops and then you gotta get from the train depot to the processing location for wheat. Once processed gotta go to where is will be converted into consumable or sent to gas distribution hubs. From there then moved to where distributed local to shops. Then from the local/regional distribution hub to to the consumer purchase location. Not every product has all of these steps but most have something similar and nearly all the in-betweens require petrol to power the vehicles. Sure, there are some distribution branches/hubs that have gone electric, but not throughout Russia. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
27 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Maybe someone should create The Great Russian Enshittening thread so that we can track the myriad of ways that the country is falling apart separate from the military and diplomatic focus of this one.

Maybe, but on the other hand, it sure is convenient to have discussion of all of the many manners of Russian failures all on one handy thread!

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Maybe, but on the other hand, it sure is convenient to have discussion of all of the many manners of Russian failures all on one handy thread!

 

IMG_2847.gif.b30561a08a232eceeb2ae6036388ceb8.gif

….. by raising a solid point.

  • Haha 3
Posted
31 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

It’s always interesting how much people undervalue or simply don't grasp/know about the intermodal aspects of distribution lines. Yes, you can send gas via pipeline to a refinery or ship wheat to a port. From the port you need a train for the wheat/oil the train stops and then you gotta get from the train depot to the processing location for wheat. Once processed gotta go to where is will be converted into consumable or sent to gas distribution hubs. From there then moved to where distributed local to shops. Then from the local/regional distribution hub to to the consumer purchase location. Not every product has all of these steps but most have something similar and nearly all the in-betweens require petrol to power the vehicles. Sure, there are some distribution branches/hubs that have gone electric, but not throughout Russia. 

Are farmers in the countryside going to have access to fuel for tractors and trucks? If shit hits the fan, are those farmers going to want to ship to the city or processing plants or save it for themselves or the local black market?

There’s already been some crop problems as it is.  If there’s a reduction in food shipments from farms to the markets, and they are having problems with international markets and shipping, what happens with the large cities?

That is all in the future though (spring) - we are heading into the winter, which helps a bit since they are mostly relying on food already harvested, processed, and stored, but they still have to move that food around from storage to market to home.  And they may import food in the winter.

I have faith that the black market is going to contribute to fucking things up as well.

Posted

apparently,there are currently around 70,000 Russian soldiers who are AWOL.  

Given that they are subject to arrest and/or summery execution, I would assume that most of them are armed. I think desertion is subject to 15 years prison time, although if it is a serious problem, I assume they will increase jail time as a deterrent if they have not already.   IOW, there are 70,000 armed Russian criminal somewhere between the front and wherever back home is.

I have to think that this is a teeny weenie, itsy-bitsy problem for Russia right now.   

IMG_5316.thumb.jpeg.f57cabbe02b69b298a27723c5e026b57.jpegIMG_5319.thumb.png.ea695b85e8a0ae579e8714d2122d4e33.png

 

Posted (edited)

The Ukraine defense industry and those providing weapons and getting them proven in the field are going to be raking it in when this is over.

Sierra Nevada Corp. has revealed new details about a closely held new air defense system that it claims has already helped down scores of aerial threats, though it won’t say where.

At last week’s annual Air and Space Forces Association conference outside Washington, the company for the first time publicly displayed the Battery Revolving Adaptive Weapons Launcher—Reconfigurable (BRAWLR), which SNC says can carry up to four types of rockets and missiles at once to take out enemy drones and cruise missiles from the back of a pickup truck, a trailer or the ground.

The company says the system gives troops an all-in-one defensive tool instead of forcing them to lug around multiple weapons launchers made by different companies.

https://breakingdefense.com/2025/10/snc-brawlr-air-defense/

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

Uh-oh... An explosion in Peresvet, Moscow Region, is being officially described as a “test” at the Rocket and Space Industry Research Center. However, reports indicate the release of highly toxic Heptyl rocket fuel. It's unclear whether this was a controlled trial or a failed launch.
Jennifer Lawrence Oops GIF

 

The UK has delivered hundreds of air defense missiles to Ukraine five months ahead of schedule, according to an official government statement. Additionally, Ukraine’s largest drone manufacturer has invested £200 million in drone production in the UK, creating 500 new jobs

———-

It’s brilliant that Ukrainian companies are building facilities in other countries - they cannot be touched by Russian missiles or drones and can run 24/7 if needed.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted (edited)

Well, go ahead and book it - the Tomahawks will be sent, after Putin said Trump was bluffing. If you think he’s bluffing, you don’t publicly say that because it embarrasses him.

Putin responded to Trump’s suggestion of possibly supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by accusing him of bluffing and calling it “blackmail.” In turn, Putin said Russia would strengthen its air defenses. Air defense, what air defense? You cannot even protect your refineries against simple drones.

——-

solid comment: “It looks like a pretty weak response, threatening to increase air defense means you are choosing to cope rather than take measures to eliminate the threat as a real great power would do.”

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

No surprise, been mentioned before and we’ve seen footage of Russian soldiers shooting their wounded comrades.


More at the links above

 

5 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Counterpoint: Those guys are all dead but they are being reported as deserters so they don't have to give their families a sack of potatoes.

The Twitter thread above mentions commanders reporting men as deserters to cut off their pay and benefits as a punishment or extortion. Also to prevent payments.  

Quote

Russian commanders have falsely declared potentially thousands of missing and dead soldiers to be deserters, as well as using such declarations for extortion. Relatives say they are being deprived of compensation payments and accuse commanders of concealing their losses.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...