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Posted
19 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

How long until Russians drop the pretense of an economic incentive and just start kidnapping other countries citizens?  

 

Eh.. scamming people in need and then basically making them indentured servants to help invade a country is a lot more Russian than just kidnapping them.

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Posted

IMG_5442.thumb.png.8697b6f116cd2e0147cf4acae8c10ab4.png

Quote

Prices have risen 40-50% since the start of the year, prompting the Russian government to order oil companies to activate reserve capacity, delay scheduled maintenance and coordinate rail shipments of fuel.

this late September article contained one nugget that I stashed away. Putting aside the constant drone attacks, I know nothing about oil and gas production, and wonder if one of the resident oil barons could tell me how often scheduled maintenance occurs, and the consequences of not doing scheduled maintenance over time. 

Is it monthly maintenance, quarterly maintenance, yearly maintenance - or a combination of that depending on which component and how important it is?  When will we start seeing booms just because they decided not to do maintenance?

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Posted (edited)

Got to play the hits when you’ve got nothing else.  I did nazi that coming.

Lavrov says Russia won't end the war unless Ukraine capitulates. 

Russia's position hasn't changed at all.

"Among other absolutely essential conditions for a settlement - such as demilitarization, the removal of any threats to the Russian Federation, including by preventing Ukraine from being dragged into NATO, the protection of the rights of Russians and Russian-speaking people, and of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church - there is also the requirement of denazification. 

This is not something we have invented, not an idea alien to modern Europe. After all, there was the Nuremberg Tribunal, the results of which became part of the UN Charter and part of the foundation of the international system established after World War II. Undoubtedly, all of Europe agreed to this. Germany, in particular, went through a process of denazification and repentance. Unfortunately, today - perhaps even starting with Germany itself - we feel that this repentance has come to mean very little."

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Got to play the hits when you’ve got nothing else.  I did nazi that coming.

Lavrov says Russia won't end the war unless Ukraine capitulates. 

Russia's position hasn't changed at all.

"Among other absolutely essential conditions for a settlement - such as demilitarization, the removal of any threats to the Russian Federation, including by preventing Ukraine from being dragged into NATO, the protection of the rights of Russians and Russian-speaking people, and of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church - there is also the requirement of denazification. 

This is not something we have invented, not an idea alien to modern Europe. After all, there was the Nuremberg Tribunal, the results of which became part of the UN Charter and part of the foundation of the international system established after World War II. Undoubtedly, all of Europe agreed to this. Germany, in particular, went through a process of denazification and repentance. Unfortunately, today - perhaps even starting with Germany itself - we feel that this repentance has come to mean very little."

From the Every Accusation is a Confession File - International Edition.  

Awesome that he's invoking Nuremberg when he and his master should be sitting in the dock next up.  Do everyone a favor and pull a Goering buddy.

image.png.41d079e3a8d27c3d0aef3f0f7eb5e47e.png 

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Posted (edited)
On 11/9/2025 at 8:10 PM, atomheartbevo said:

 

They are blurring important infrastructure on the Yandex mapping service, which...makes it easier to spot important infrastructure

Ricky Gervais Lol GIF

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The Taganov Substation is in an industrial area, with a lot of larger buildings. The blurred area includes an airstrip, so maybe the industrial plants make aviation hardware that used to be installed here before the war.

My google earth shot from 2002 shows Russian AWACS & Bear bombers on the apron in the bottom of the photo.  I don't imagine they keep anything that close to Ukraine anymore.  

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The substation has a small footprint, but if it serves a specific area, good. I imagine Ukraine has pretty good intel on this area. It is interesting the rail siding next to the substation can accommodate a large number of rail tank cars, so specialty chemicals may be involved in the manufacturing nearby,

image.png.6adc841cb8fc58c382dd1a2cab9ebc2f.png

 

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm trying to switch over to BlueSky/Threads, but a few are still on twitter.  This thing is fairly deep into Russia, on the Volga river.

 

The Saratov Refinery, with the red line showing the line of sight in the OP, from bottom towards the top.The little red fires labelled "11/25" are the 2 big towers hit earlier this month.

The Blue and Orange oblong objects are tall flare/exhaust stacks, and I think the Blue one is the tall flare you see in the video. I think the green polygons are choice targets (main process vessels) within the refinery, and it appears they are close/within the fires from the videos.

I thought the attack 2 weeks ago took out the main process vessels.  It is interesting that Ukraine would hit it again with 2 weeks. Again, indicative of good intel on what was hit before, and what needed to be hot again. 

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Edited by PTINS
typo. text.
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Posted
3 hours ago, PTINS said:

I thought the attack 2 weeks ago took out the main process vessels.  It is interesting that Ukraine would hit it again with 2 weeks. Again, indicative of good intel on what was hit before, and what needed to be hot again. 

We know they are getting satellite imagery from other European countries - I can't tell if we give them the good stuff or not, because it seems like our relationship with them changes daily.

But my gut says they have people on the ground with eyes on the target.  And there are Russians who are engaged in sabotage - witness the train fires, the various telecom equipment being burned, etc., and it would be easy for them to smuggle out information.

And hell, they are hitting stuff in daylight which  means they know what air defenses are around (or rather not around) because if they thought there were at least a bunch of dudes in pickup trucks with machine guns, they might wait until nightfall. The daytime raids let them hit exactly what the operators are hoping to hit.

 

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Posted

You might also find this interesting @PTINS

(2) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Five big Indian refiners haven't placed any orders for Russian oil for December due to the US sanctions, Bloomberg reported. The refiners - Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL-Mittal Energy - https://t.co/9sT81l2fTt" / X

Five big Indian refiners haven't placed any orders for Russian oil for December due to the US sanctions, Bloomberg reported.

The refiners - Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL-Mittal Energy - accounted for two-thirds of India's imports of Russian oil so far this year.

Last week, on the sidelines of an industry conference in Abu Dhabi, they reached out to traditional suppliers in the Persian Gulf - Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. - to make up for the lost Russian barrels, with processors securing supply assurances.

Most Indian Oil Refiners Skip Buying Russian Crude for December - Bloomberg

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Posted

Wonder if things are getting spicy in St. Petersburg of if they are just trying to stop drones.

(2) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "In the Russian city of St. Petersburg, with a population of 5.6 million, mobile internet access has been shut down. Residents across the city are reporting that websites, messaging apps, banking services, delivery platforms, and taxi apps are not working. The only service that https://t.co/bW70eblPuU" / X

In the Russian city of St. Petersburg, with a population of 5.6 million, mobile internet access has been shut down.

Residents across the city are reporting that websites, messaging apps, banking services, delivery platforms, and taxi apps are not working. The only service that continues to function reliably is the Federal State Information System "Unified Portal of State and Municipal Services (Functions)" ("Gosuslugi").

Telecom operators told Russian media that the outages are "related to security measures." However, no official alerts about drone threats have been announced.

In addition to St. Petersburg, disruptions to mobile internet have also been reported in Russian Sochi, Tula, Voronezh, Ryazan, Krasnodar, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, and Ufa today.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Too drunk to walk?  Holy shit, that IS a perfect Russian AI robot!

48 minutes ago, SurlyGator said:

Sometimes, the jokes just write themselves!

The Rocky theme was the chef’s kiss.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wonder if things are getting spicy in St. Petersburg of if they are just trying to stop drones.

Probably internet problems related to them trying to stop drones, but…

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1987816336236364178

It looks like hidden drafting has started in Russia. 

A campaign started in 20 Russian regions on drafting reservists into units that will secure critically important Russian objects. In Tatarstan, this process started back in October - reservists were recruited to secure oil objects. In Nizhny Novgorod, reservists have already been selected and are undergoing training. 

On November 4, Putin signed a decree allowing reservists to be drafted into securing critically important objects in peacetime. It is hard to estimate the scale of this process and the number of reservists that will be drafted. 

The main question is whether this is done to accumulate additional human resource for war or to replenish losses and decrease in signing military contracts (which have been the primary source of Russia's cannon fodder in previous years). 

This should become clear in several months. Several Russian regions have sharply decreased the amount of payments Russians receive when they sign a contract with the Russian army. That's probably why the hidden mobilization was launched now. 

Although it is declared that the reservists will only serve in their regions, there is very little doubt that they will all arrive at the frontlines eventually. 

This should also influence the overall situation with labor resources in Russia - reservists are usually more educated and qualified. Russia is already experiencing labor shortage, and this will deepen the issue in the long term.

—————

I’m thinking they re going to stick these dudes in pickups with machine guns and station them around refineries.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted

Something to keep an eye on

The front in the Zaporizhzhia direction is collapsing

Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced toward Huliaipole, according to OSINT channels.

The DeepState project reports that a breakthrough near the Yanchur River allowed Russian troops to advance from the northeast, creating a threat of partial encirclement of the city.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have captured dozens of square kilometers — including the villages of Sladke, Novoe, and Novonikolayevka — and begun fighting for Rovnopol, just 11 km from Huliaipole.

Experts describe the situation as a “localized collapse of defenses.” Russian troops are advancing 4–5 km every few days, while Ukrainian forces struggle to fortify new positions.

Military analysts warn that if this pace continues, the city could be encircled or captured within two weeks.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have confirmed difficulties in the area. Ukrainian troops withdrew from several positions near five settlements in the Huliaipole sector, said Southern Defense Forces spokesman Vladyslav Voloshyn.

“We completely left Uspenivka and Novonikolayivka. Heavy fighting continues for Yablokove and three to four other locations. The defensive operation continues. The frontline remains very dynamic.”

Huliaipole, once home to 13,000 people, remains a strategically important crossroads in eastern Ukraine

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Posted

Sucks, and I know Ukraine wants to fight to the last man to defend every little town, but if they are smart and get their people out in time (or inflict maximum casualties for the losses), and they keep up their deep strikes against the Russian infrastructure and economy, Ukraine will come out much better.

The fact that Putin is having to mobilize people that really aren't supposed to be mobilized for a Special Military Operation in another country means that Russia is struggling on the manpower front. The mobilization could, at the very least, be a sign that they can't defend their infrastructure that's on Russian soil and fight in Ukraine at the same time.

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Posted

Peeps… this is a quick five minute cruise of what the Russian newspapers are saying about the military and financial going on in Russia.   I was actually surprised at the level of negative reporting on some of it.  

I had not seen this person‘s channel before, but I’m going to add it to my daily viewing because it saves a bunch of time (love Inside Russia, but Konstantin is ponderous) and covers more topics than Julia Davis and her excellent Russian Media Monitor.

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Posted

https://www.gzeromedia.com/video/quick-take/trump-escalates-sanctions-against-russia#toggle-gdpr

Quote

In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the changing dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war, where Europe is taking the lead in military support while the US adjusts its approach.

“This has gone from a war that the United States was providing most of the direct support to Ukraine to one where the Europeans are clearly taking the leadership role, and this is much more of an existential issue for them,” says Ian.

Meanwhile, the US has eased targeting restrictions, expanded intelligence sharing, and placed new oil sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies adding pressure even if it won’t shift the battlefield immediately.

But peace remains distant. Ukraine has signaled willingness for a ceasefire; Russia has not. “They’re demanding more territory and Ukrainian disarmament,” Ian warns. He says to expect incremental Russian gains, rising casualties, and the ongoing risk of the conflict spilling into NATO countries.

 

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Posted

 

 

FOOTAGE SHOWS RUSSIANS ENTERING POKROVSK ON FOGGY ROAD

Russian war bloggers published a video on Tuesday showing what they said were Russian forces entering Pokrovsk along a road enveloped in fog, in what some Telegram users said looked like scenes from the 1979 action film "Mad Max", which unfolds in a post-apocalyptic landscape.
 
The video showed Russian forces on motorcycles and in an odd assortment of cars and other vehicles. Many vehicles, missing doors and windows, were shown driving along a road strewn with debris as soldiers looked on. Some Russian soldiers sat on the roof of a battered vehicle. A drone was seen beside the road.
Reuters was able to confirm the location of the video as Pokrovsk from the road layout, signs, utility tower, and trees seen in the video, which matched file and satellite imagery of the area. Reuters was not able to independently verify the date of the footage.
In a Telegram post, Zelenskiy, who was visiting Ukrainian-held parts of southern Kherson region, described the situation in Pokrovsk as "difficult, particularly as weather conditions favour attacks. But we are continuing to destroy the occupiers."
 
Zelenskiy also said that Moscow was increasing its assaults in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.
Top commander Syrskyi said Russian forces were exploiting foggy conditions to infiltrate positions in Zaporizhzhia.
"The situation has significantly worsened in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole directions, where, using its numerical superiority in personnel and materiel, the enemy advanced in fierce fighting and captured three settlements," Syrskyi wrote on Telegram.
 
Ukrainian troops, he wrote, were fighting "exhausting battles" for two villages northeast of Huliaipole.
Ukraine's military said about 300 Russian soldiers were now inside Pokrovsk and that Moscow had intensified efforts to get more troops in over the past few days. It said Ukrainian forces were battling Russian groups in the city.
 
Syrskyi told the New York Post that Russia was concentrating some 150,000 troops in a drive on Pokrovsk.
 
 
 
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Posted

watching the various Ukraine news centered YouTube channels last night I did watch one that claimed that Gerasimov was told by Putin he had until mid November to make significant gains or he was out.  This apparently is an explanation for the latest push where they are throwing more meat than ever before at the problem without regard to logistics or trip deaths - even by Russian standards.

I guess if I reflect on it, the delivery capabilities of Russia to supply food, water, fuel, ammunition, etc. to its troops is far more  degraded than it ever was.   As soon as the subzero temperature comes and stays, I think Ukraine will be able to keep far more of its soldiers fed and alive in those conditions than Russia.  

I hope excellent thermal optics have been flooded into Ukraine, and if it hasn’t, it should, as I think a winter offensive in the current situation would be difficult for Russia to defend.

I guess the question remains the same: will Russia collapse before its slow, costly, incremental gains in Ukraine become problematic for Ukraine? 

Posted

We are not talking much how Kaliningrad is in a bad place, having been cut off from Russia’s supplies, including fuel delivery.   Russia must spend an extraordinary amount of money and effort trying to keep it supplied. 

When Lithuania closed the border and prevented the usual transit route of Chinese and Russian goods to flow to Europe, Leshchenko seized more than 1000 freight trucks stuck on the other side of the border in Belarus.   That action has fucked Russia in China it fucked Russia because it can’t collect duties on the trade coming through exporters, and it is fucked China because China can’t get it stuff to Europe through that route. 

The expectation is that China will now send. It’s goods through a southern freight route that goes through Turkey. Essentially, Russia will now be bypassed for a huge amount of trade that no longer has anything to do with Russia before it reaches Europe.  That is a ton of money and jobs for Russia, and makes rush of being a non-economic superpower, backwater more of a reality.     Estimates are that Russia has lost at least 40% of its refining capability. I believe it’s likely slightly more than that, because damage to so many refineries on such a regular basis has to have completely consumed much of its spare parts, and while Russia still retained some some expertise in repairing them, one would think those specialist have to go from refractory to refinery rather than have competent people in each and everyone. 

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