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Posted
10 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Has anyone found a credible estimate of the percentage of refining capacity at which Russia is currently operating?

At one point, I recall that an estimated 20% of refining capacity was impacted, but that was a week or two ago.

Lots of great information about Shadow Fleet tankers full of oil not being able to dock anywhere, and multiple nations scrutinizing the shadow fleet movements after the sanctions were imposed.   With the additional sweet goodness of all those ports transferring oil being hit, do we have any idea about the percentage of normal Kremlin sold oil being reduced?    

They have to be hemorrhaging money and deeply in need of that revenue.  Add to that the fact that they need to actually buy gasoline from other countries now to meet their domestic needs.  Somebody has to be keeping score.

10 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-using-spare-oil-refining-capacity-offset-ukrainian-drone-damage-sources-2025-11-13/

Answering my own question, partly, this article suggest that it’s still not as bad as we had hoped it would be because apparently Russia has other refining capacity that was not being used, and which went online to mitigate the production losses from the September-October attacks.

I have to note that saying “industry sources” is not the depth of information that we should rely on if those industry sources are the Russians. But Reuters…

If true, this does show Russian resilience - for a timeframe anyway.  Albert Spear was a genius and kept Nazi war production going despite night and day bombing at a rate that was truly impressive.   But that was a matter of when, and not if, the war economy would collapse.

But it also occurs to me if they have to start up previously non-producing smaller refineries, they can’t set up decent air defenses everywhere for them. If they can’t stop their largest refineries from getting hit multiple times, the smaller ones in Dogpatch Russia are going to be easy targets over time because they are running out of Pantsirs and S-400s.    And I would bet they are not moving any out of Moscow or St. Petersburg in any event.    

Political priorities versus strategic priorities.

Getting hard data on this is damn near impossible. By definition, 80-90% of the information is coming from Russian sources. The info attributed to Reuters is being parroted by everybody else. Where did Rueter's get the info? My guess is Russia. After reading the article, and half a dozen others, I don't agree with much of what was written

By my count, Ukraine has attacked half (15/30) of Russia's 30 largest refineries since Aug 2025, which means ~ 75% of the capacity was targeted. 13 of those targeted, mentioned specific process units were targeted and/or damaged. The video's of explosions and fires indicate there was significant damage at those facilities. Massive explosions and fires at US refineries are few and far between. The explosions and fires in Russia since August have been massive. I have not seen any factual info on the aftermath of these attacks, but I have a pretty good idea that it is anything but business as usual.

Here are a few photo's of various fires at US refineries, none of which were bombed or hit by missiles:

image.png.62cad978417066db660f44a1bfc915a9.png 

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image.png.5edb19ee2dd8c65d6824698367f58afe.png 

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I know Russia doesn't have to deal with unions, or OSHA, or personal injury lawyers, but any repairs would take a considerable amount of time, even without the sanctions.  I would have more faith in a Russian commercial airliner than any repairs made to a Russian refinery in the past 2 years.

  Russia's refining capacity was ~ 6,600,000 barrels/day (6.6 MMBPD), and in 2024 had in operating rate of ~ 6 MMBPD in 2024.

Russia's internal demand for petroleum products in 2024 was ~ 4 MBPD, or 67% of the refining output. In the last 2 months, Russian demand has exceeded the output. 

Russia reduced, and then stopped petroleum product exports in the last 2-3 months, and has been rationing gasoline and diesel since then. That is a combination of reduced refining operations, logistics, and internal demand. I'm guessing the internal demand has dropped in the last 2 years, which makes the numbers worse.

But you don't stop one of the few sources of hard currency unless you have to, and Russia stopped exporting refined products. That is not indicative of a drop of 3 or 4%.  And as you are all aware, refined products cost a lot more than the crude oil they are made from.  They would still be running if they could.

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Posted

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Nov. 16 that congressional Republicans are preparing legislation that would impose sanctions on any country doing business with Russia.

"Any country that does business with Russia will be very severely sanctioned," Trump told reporters in Palm Beach, Florida. He added that Iran may also be included in the new sanctions package.

The forthcoming legislation would build on a series of actions the Trump administration has taken in recent months. In October, the administration announced its first sanctions against Moscow, targeting Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries.

Most recently, however, the U.S. Treasury Department delayed sanctions on Lukoil — originally scheduled to take effect Nov. 21 — to allow the company time to sell off its foreign assets.

Earlier this year, Washington also imposed 50% tariffs on India, one of the largest importers of Russian oil, citing New Delhi's continued purchases despite warnings that secondary sanctions could follow if Moscow failed to advance peace efforts in Ukraine.

Trump offered no additional details about the sanctions legislation under development but said Iran would likely be among the targets. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Iran has served as a critical Kremlin ally, supplying weapons and military equipment to Moscow's war effort.

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine and Greece have signed a deal to import American liquefied natural gas to Ukraine for the first quarter of 2026, as Ukraine seeks to secure energy supplies amid continued Russian strikes on its infrastructure.

This was announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a joint press conference with Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens.

“Our agreements with Greece today are a key part of the broader energy package we’ve been preparing to ensure Ukraine has sufficient gas this winter,” Zelensky said.

The gas import deal comes at a critical moment for Ukraine moment as it suffers regular Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure leading to emergency power cuts in many cities, including the capital, Kyiv.  These strikes have left the country urgently seeking new equipment and 4.4 bcm of gas needed to get through the wintr.

According to Mitsotakis, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be transported via the so-called "vertical corridor" from the port of Alexandroupolis in Greece to Odesa in Ukraine, positioning Greece as Europe's new gateway for U.S. gas. The route connects Greece to Ukraine through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova.

Zelenskyy also thanked international partners, particularly the United States, for their assistance in implementing the project. "We will be able to receive energy from the United States through Greece, because this is truly a global infrastructure located in Greece," he noted.

The agreements cover both immediate gas supplies for the first quarter of 2026 and long-term arrangements aimed at strengthening Ukraine's energy security.

Greek natural gas operator DEPA has reported that it signed a letter of intent with Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas giant Naftogaz regarding the supply of natural gas to Ukraine for the winter period between December 2025 and March 2026.

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Posted
On 11/15/2025 at 12:51 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Out of a fucking nightmare, and these are all pretty much kills.

Dudes are lugging gear, some cases dealing with mud. Ukraine ain't slowing down either.

 

I've watched hundreds... maybe thousands of videos in this thread over the past 3.5 years of Russians getting got. For whatever reason, the 2nd guy in this video hit me in a different way. 

He was just like fuck it. Finally this shit is over. 

Maybe he  was a rapist toilet stealing piece of shit. Maybe he was just some dude that wanted nothing to do with any of this and was conscripted into service and the last thought that went through his head was believing the lies he's been told that at least his wife and kids back home will get some money and his death will have been worth at least that. 

This all sucks. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, pops said:

I've watched hundreds... maybe thousands of videos in this thread over the past 3.5 years of Russians getting got. For whatever reason, the 2nd guy in this video hit me in a different way. 

He was just like fuck it. Finally this shit is over. 

Maybe he  was a rapist toilet stealing piece of shit. Maybe he was just some dude that wanted nothing to do with any of this and was conscripted into service and the last thought that went through his head was believing the lies he's been told that at least his wife and kids back home will get some money and his death will have been worth at least that. 

This all sucks. 

Or maybe he was a Ukrainian kid who got kidnapped and conscripted.  We'll never know.  

One of the shittiest parts of war is you have to dehumanize your enemies to overcome the very human urge not to kill your fellow man.  Because when you kill, you know you're killing a little bit of yourself, a not insignificant piece of your own humanity.  Or you go a little crazy.  Or both. 

It's all so unnecessary and so overwhelmingly tragic.  

Edited by Chad Fuck
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Posted
On 11/14/2025 at 9:43 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Even high school students in Europe know what's up

A group of Slovak high-schoolers walked out on Prime Minister Robert Fico after he ranted against helping Ukraine, local media report. When Fico claimed the EU was spending “140 billion euros to prolong the war” and told students to “go fight if you’re such heroes,” they drowned him out with jingling keys and left the hall.

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The jingling keys thing refers to this:

The Key-Jingling Protest of the Velvet Revolution — THE END OF HARM

The kids are alright.

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Posted
1 hour ago, pops said:

I've watched hundreds... maybe thousands of videos in this thread over the past 3.5 years of Russians getting got. For whatever reason, the 2nd guy in this video hit me in a different way. 

He was just like fuck it. Finally this shit is over. 

Yeah, I get that, but I just remind myself that the Russian drone operators are training on Ukrainian civilians, animals, and vehicles.

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Posted
10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin goes after his own war cheerleaders

Roman Alekhin ran a fervently pro-war Telegram channel, advised a Russian governor and received military honours for fighting in Ukraine.

He was a poster boy for so-called Z-bloggers, self-styled social media war correspondents unflinchingly loyal to the ideology behind Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Then, the Russian state designated him a “foreign agent”.

The spectacle of Mr Alekhin’s dramatic rise and fall has spread fear among the online community that for nearly four years has apparently been allowed to critique and criticise the way the war is being fought.

While anti-war activists were jailed in their thousands, a growing movement of ultranationalist military bloggers (or “milbloggers”) appeared to be rewarded with money, status and influence.

But Russia watchers have long warned that the Kremlin’s tolerance of them would run out – that time might be now.

Keir Giles, a senior Russia analyst at Chatham House, is surprised it had not happened sooner. “This is the kind of dissent that, if it was directed at the political system, would have earned reprisals long ago,” he said.

The Z-blogosphere “was seen by some as a safety valve, a means by which critics could vent without actually challenging the overall state policy”, Mr Giles told The Telegraph. “That avenue has now been closed off.”

Mr Alekhin, who was accused of misusing funds he raised for Russian troops after he flaunted a new sports car and an expensive watch on social media, isn’t the first of the milbloggers to fall foul of the state he so ardently championed, as the regime’s machinery of repression begins to eat it its own.

Sergey Markov, a prominent pro-Kremlin pundit, was listed as a “foreign agent” in August, a label with Stalin-era connotations once reserved for Russia’s enemies but increasingly employed at will by the state apparatus to silence any criticism.

Experts believe that Mr Markov was punished for his open support of Azerbaijan amid the collapse of Baku’s relations with Moscow. It marked a mighty fall from a once-trusted propagandist for Putin.

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Markov had been featured on Russian state TV I believe. 

It's always fun when the authoritarians start eating their own.

 

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Posted
10 hours ago, PTINS said:

But you don't stop one of the few sources of hard currency unless you have to, and Russia stopped exporting refined products. That is not indicative of a drop of 3 or 4%.  And as you are all aware, refined products cost a lot more than the crude oil they are made from.  They would still be running if they could.

Russian Oil Plunges With Top Producers Days Away From Sanctions - Bloomberg

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Posted

It's only a protest against taxes and corruption and not the war.

high quality GIF

But as others have pointed out, a protest is a protest and gotta start somewhere, and this one is harder to discredit as being unpatriotic or whatever.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine going to pick up 100 Rafeles, including some from French reserves.

 

Rafales are no joke, especially if Ukraine is getting them with Meteor missiles. Meteros are damn near a cheat code for air to air engagements, not to mention the built-in EW suite and low obseravability. That's a big BIG deal that will effectively make Ukraine's airforce superior in theatre if they're able to activate the fighters quickly

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Posted
8 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

After reading all of this, it appears that the Russians fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is ‘Never get involved in a land war in Asia,’ but only slightly less well-known is this: ‘Never go in against a Ukrainian when death is on the line’.”

Inconcievable!

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Posted

image.thumb.png.0f29888d70b83154bc6bfaaad026f46f.png
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/world/europe/poland-railway-explosion-sabotage-ukraine.html

Saboteurs tried to “blow up a train” on a Polish railway that is important for delivering aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Monday after the authorities identified blast damage on tracks in the country’s east.

“There is no doubt that we are dealing with an act of sabotage,” Mr. Tusk said in a video from the site of the blast, near the midpoint of a rail line between Warsaw, the capital, and Lublin, an eastern city close to the border with Ukraine.

The explosion occurred Saturday evening. Residents in the area of the village Mika “reported hearing a blast,” Marcin Kierwinski, the interior minister, told reporters on Monday.

Early Sunday, a train driver had reported a noticeable unevenness on the tracks.

It was not clear who was responsible, or why the Polish authorities believed it was intended to take out a train. An “explosive device” destroyed the tracks, but no one was injured, Mr. Tusk said.

The incident, which Mr. Tusk called “unprecedented,” comes during a period of high alert in Poland, which has been one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Although Poland did not directly implicate Russia in the railway blast, Moscow has been accused of various acts of sabotage and destabilization since the start of the Ukraine war.

Mr. Tusk said that damage was also found on a different section of the same rail line, closer to Lublin, after what he said was an “attempt to destabilize and destroy the railway infrastructure, which could also have led to a train crash.”

Polish officials mentioned two other rail incidents from the weekend that were separate from the blast — a damaged overhead cable that forced a train with 475 passengers to come to an abrupt stop on Sunday, and a stray piece of metal found attached to the track. But it was not clear which of the two Mr. Tusk was referencing.

Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, the Polish defense minister, said on social media that the military would inspect about 75 miles along the train track that leads to the Polish border with Ukraine.

These disruptions come two months after NATO jets shot down a swarm of Russian drones in Polish airspace, in one of the most dramatic episodes in a series of Russian incursions in the skies over NATO member states and facilities. Also in September, Russian drones appeared over Romania and Russian jets crossed into Estonia, spiking anxiety across Europe.

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Posted

"Pokrovsk. A minute out of 40 in real time. 40 minutes of my friends being targeted or even hit before my eyes. Not everyone survived this meat grinder. Dead were not abandoned, they were taken away" a combat medic Vitsikkk.

 

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Posted
On 11/13/2025 at 7:20 PM, atomheartbevo said:

 

On 11/14/2025 at 7:06 AM, atomheartbevo said:

 

There is some slight confusion - some are saying the area above the cargo terminal was some kind of military facility/base/barracks. Not sure if naval related or some kind of facility for export/import of military cargo or not.

Just hitting the large SAM installation and the oil terminal are huge though.  Cargo...can be offloaded at one of the other piers (even if it's a pain in the ass).

This was a well-coordinated strike.  Still can't believe how easily they wrecked the SAM battery.

 

 

On 11/14/2025 at 11:06 PM, atomheartbevo said:

More for @PTINS

The Novorossiysk strike disabled critical oil infrastructure, Exilenova reports. One hit appears to have struck pipelines feeding crude from shore tanks to pier loading terminals, with fire covering a large area. Damage to pipes or pumps halts tanker loading even if storage tanks remain intact.

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I've seen comments saying that they were ignoring the storage tanks and deliberately targeting pumps and other critical hardware. Would be wild if they are that accurate.

Edit: And since this ends their abilities to load oil to tankers in the Black Sea, that probably means there's a shitload of oil sitting in pipelines stretching down to the Black Sea, plus tanks that are just sitting there full to the brim.  Feels like it could jam up a lot of stuff.

I may know a lot of things, but ...

image.png.a977080fb57fd6b7b155ab4b1c7e0ced.png

atomheartbevo, this is for you. How does one specify a poster by tagging the name in an orange capsule like you do? 

I really appreciate the comments from all of you, and while nothing in a message board is personal, it is the simple things in life that make you smile.

With that said, this is a catch all for all things around the Novorossiysk Export Terminal.

First, what a hidden jewel of a place. Like San Diego without 20 million neighbors. Just from the Google Earth photo's, the mountains and developed areas are covered with old fortresses and monuments and churches and photo ops. The harbor is ~ 75 miles from the Kerch Bridge.

image.thumb.png.50640e880e9acc75ec84527615e91eb2.png

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 image.png.0b2a990c9c8132931e18d690d31c65d3.png

 The Oil Export Terminal is in the left foreground, the naval base in the center w/ the crescent dyke oops, dike, and the S-300/400 location is was n the point across the harbor. The blurred area in the foreground is where the oil pipeline tunnel comes out of the mountains above the Tank Farm and Export Terminal.

image.png.8227bdeaab828e363a6f5233cecc7db0.png

Like San Diego, a target rich environment.

image.png.d0e0f31c3b6133e64f9bd5a0cfd87516.png

Ukraine has already attacked the Export Terminal, Navy Base, S-300/400 missile site, and a harbor buoy.

Another video I saw indicated the large mushroom cloud was from the S-300/400 site, and the rocket fuel oxidizing and burning.

The Tank Farm that feeds the Export Terminal is in a valley behind the 2,000' high coastal mountains, with a rail terminal that can handle oil unit trains. The tank farm pipelines go through a 2 mile long tunnel from the tank farm to the water side of the mountains. The terminal itself does not have any significant oil storage.

The POV on the west shore is the point of view from some of the photos.

(Please note the zig-zaggy road south of the terminal. PTINS = Porsche; There Is No Substitute!)

Novorossiysk Export Terminal

The terminal is similar to the one at Tuapse, with two loading jetties, one of which can handle larger tankers. The red polygon was the big fire that covered most of the pipes and manifolds that come from the Tank Farm.  It is possible the one storage tank at the terminal may have also been targeted. 

image.thumb.png.bfa1dc8746be28f97b4018a1b0929c71.png

Finally, below is screen shot from the fire damage at the terminal, with a before and after picture. It would appear this area envelopes the main loading pumps for the tankers, and all of the piping that feeds the south jetty, the one capable of accommodating the larger tankers.  It also looks like the pipelines feeding the north jetty were on the edge of the fire and may have only had minimal damage.

One thing of note, loading tankers is pretty straight forward, moving oil from atmospheric storage tanks into atmospheric cargo holds in the tankers. You need high volume pumps and pipelines, but not necessarily high pressure equipment.  While the original equipment is specialized and fit for purpose, in a pinch, a pump is a pump, and finding a suitable, temporary replacement (water and irrigation pumps?) would not be very difficult.

All the tanks and pipelines look alike, but the different tanks hold different grades of oil, sweet or sour, or heavy or light. Replacing the pipeline manifolds would be a tedious, time consuming task. Usually the pipe spools are fabricated elsewhere (in a shop or open area), with minimal welding at the site. With a lot of pipes in a congested area, the construction has to go in an orderly manner, to make sure everything fits the way it is supposed to. 

It looks like Russia had started to construct storage tanks at the terminal itself, but didn't get very far.

This is 4 mile stretch of infrastructure made up of a series of critical nodes, that either they all work, or they don't.

Let's hope they don't.

image.thumb.png.73c9c5fb60d3261e1ae9be6d77989412.png

 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, PTINS said:

atomheartbevo, this is for you. How does one specify a poster by tagging the name in an orange capsule like you do? 

@PTINS All you have to do is type "@" and then start typing someone's name and posters handles start to appear.  Pick the one you want and you will have the effect you are looking for.

image.gif.d6e7de8c2f4357438934e0694e7839ea.gif

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Posted
1 hour ago, orange dream said:

@PTINS All you have to do is type "@" and then start typing someone's name and posters handles start to appear.  Pick the one you want and you will have the effect you are looking for.

image.gif.d6e7de8c2f4357438934e0694e7839ea.gif

@orange dream, much appreciated. 

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