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  • I think that it’s now safe to say that we Texans now live in a failed state.  30 years of GOP rule, setting our own standard, living the “Texas Dream,” which they’ve bragged about relentlessly…and let’s see where we are:

    A majority of the state in complete failure, unable to deliver the most BASIC of services (things that are called “utilities,” not “luxuries,” for a reason).  No power.  No water.  No means of clearing roads (that one, I can’t fault the state so much….but it wouldn’t be as big a crisis if people weren’t stuck in their homes with no power and water).  So citizens are stuck in their homes, some of them dying there. 

    Water resource planning?  After pretending for decades that a drought would never happen again, and not doing ANYTHING to develop resources in the state water plan (a document actually developed using science and mathematical projections), we had several locations, including actual cities, down to a few days of water supply.  We’ve finally gotten on our horse a bit, but it may be too late if the next drought comes anytime soon.  

    State rank in key categories:

    Education – 34

    Health Care - 37

    Infrastructure - 33

    Opportunity - 39

    Environment - 44

    Infrastructure - 33 

    In overall quality of life ranking by US News, we are now #38, down from #36 just two years ago.  At that rate, we’ll be in the bottom 3 within ten years.

    We are SUPER independent, and FUCK the feds….but we have requested federal disaster assistance more than any other state in the past decade or so.

    But hey, our economy is ranked #15!

    That’s right, we have a “roaring economy” and the “Texas Miracle!”  But we can’t deliver the basics for our citizens.  The economy is VERY efficient at funneling bazillions to the very few…..with little of it “trickling down” to most Texans.  Yeah, the people on this board generally do fine, but face the facts – we’re the top 10% or so.  We are educated, older, and fortunate.

    Our federal system allows for state-by-state experiments.  Texas is the poster child for near anarcho-capitalism and zero regulation or oversight.  We have tested that approach, for over a generation now (30 years of Republican rule).  That approach is a failure.  The evidence is undeniable, and overwhelming.  It doesn’t matter how many River Oaks millionaires you produce if the rest of your people are dying in their homes.  Shit, some of those River Oaks millionaires might be freezing to death today, too.

    The kids of a middle class family can hardly afford to go to a good state school.  Their prospects for employment are mediocre.  Their prospects of suffering crippling medical debt at some point are significant.  Their chances of not having basic utilities needed for life safety at some point – all but certain.  Their chances of becoming ill or dying from a pollution-caused illness are material.

    What’s the result?  Our leaders have sold Texas as a paradise – move here!  Bring your business here!  And some businesses have done so, adding opportunity…..but providing little to no tax support for the infrastructure we all depend on.  To the contrary, over the past few years, I know more and more people – educated people, people who can do their jobs elsewhere, who are looking to bail on this state.  It’s people with young kids, who want them to grow up in a better place.  It’s people in their working years, who simply want a better path.  It’s retirees, who want a safe and secure place to live.

    We have consumed our seed stock.  We have burned through our reserves.  We are now consuming ourselves.  The ability to pitch Texas as the land of opportunity is done.  Seeing what we have become, the tentative thought/plan my wife and I had of wrapping up our careers here and then getting the hell out of Dodge is becoming much more concrete.  My children are already unlikely to make their future in this state.  Now we are, too.

    But the response from the Republican leadership and their sycophants – “how are you gonna pay for it?  Taxes?  That’s socialism!  You want that stuff, you have to pay for it!”

    Fuck yes I do, and I’m okay with that.  I want groceries…so I have to pay HEB.  I want a car…so I have to pay Ford.  I want clothes…..so I have to pay Dillards.  I want my population educated….so I have to pay the school district.  I want electricity, with enough capacity to keep us running when we need it…..so I have to pay my bill, maybe with a capacity surcharge.  I want water to come out of the taps….so I have to pay for development of resources and maintenance of infrastructure.  I want roads….so I pay taxes to build and maintain them.  YES, I have to pay for all of those things, and “nothing is free” – no fucking shit.  So, let’s pay for it.  We have the #15 economy….we HAVE the funds in this state.  An economy with the flow of funds that ours has can produce and maintain all of those results.  But we have chosen a different path; funnel all the dollars to the top, and spend next to nothing for the public good.  We have privatized profit….we have socialized the costs.  And we are dying because of it.

    My fellow Texans are dying in their homes….and there’s nothing I can do about it today.  And I am enraged.

    I love Texas.  I am 6th generation here.  My ancestors have Texas historical markers on their graves.  We helped make this state, and this state helped make us.  It educated us (back when college was affordable).  But it’s time to face the fact – this state is a failure, and on its current path, with its current leadership and philosophy, it will only get worse.  This state has a terrible future, unless we dramatically change our path.   Chances of that happening?  0.0% -- because we’ll continue to vote for the guys who make our leadership priorities bathroom bills, and transgender sports, and requiring the national anthem be played at certain events.  Any bill that has been proposed to improve emergency preparedness of gov’t entities has been crushed by the Republicans controlling the lege….but we will definitely stick with those guys.  No taxes.  No government functionality.

    What we are seeing happening right now is our system working EXACTLY AS IT WAS DESIGNED AND INTENDED TO WORK.  And we will, I guarantee it, collectively decide to stick with that.  This state is in free-fall, and anyone with eyes can see it.  And anyone with a brain is starting to think of ways to make their life elsewhere.  It breaks my goddamned heart to see us commit collective suicide, but here we are.

     

     


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    bluto

    Posted

    Wonder how local pd and metro police chiefs feel about being required to assist in the deportations

    Longhorn_Fan68

    Posted

    1 minute ago, bluto said:

    Wonder how local pd and metro police chiefs feel about being required to assist in the deportations

    um, you do know the makeup of most of those squads, right? they're probably giddy.

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    Dnaguy

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, bluto said:

    Wonder how local pd and metro police chiefs feel about being required to assist in the deportations

     

    6 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    um, you do know the makeup of most of those squads, right? they're probably giddy.

    A lot safer work than defending elementary schools that’s for sure.

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    mchookem

    Posted

    Patrick was beat up by stoner hippies in high school.

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    bolverk

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, mchookem said:

    Patrick was beat up by stoner hippies in high school.

    Even peaceniks have a breaking point.

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    CooterBrown

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:


    Shouldn’t the cap be tied to our overall budget? (Maybe it is, IDK to be totally honest)

    But once you’ve got say 1/2 of the states project two year budget (so essentially the amount to cover 1 whole year’s budget), you have to do 2 things:

    1.) 2/3 Use it for education

    2.) 1/3 Put it in the water infrastructure fund

    Any interest earned off of the rainy day fund over that amount must be used for:

    3.) Property tax relief or a refund to every citizen.


     

    Edit- I googled it and the rainy day fund is capped at 10% of the last biannual budget.

    So I still think my plan is workable no?

    The cap forces them to spend money where they don't want to.  They'd rather horde the cash and say fuck all y'all. 

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    Dnaguy

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

    The cap forces them to spend money where they don't want to.  They'd rather horde the cash and say fuck all y'all. 

    I feel like anything they will try to pay for will either go to their rich donors or religious organizations anyway with this group.

    Best let them horde the $ now and pray for  more reasonable politicians in the future.

     

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    The Ace of Aces

    Posted

    4 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

    Senate Bill 14 – Texas DOGE – Improving Government Efficiency

    This could be the worst of them all.  

     

    Republicans have controlled all 3 branches of government for three decades. Why have they been so negligent with taxpayer money to need such an office? 

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    Updawg

    Posted

    Republicans have controlled all 3 branches of government for three decades. Why have they been so negligent with taxpayer money to need such an office? 

    Because Trump and Elon have one
    tx 3 putt

    Posted

    is this $10000 per kid going to be counted as income ?

    Valmy77

    Posted (edited)

    If Paxton honestly thought Cosco's policies actually discriminated based on race, he would have sued them a long time ago. Or enforced the laws. This is just political intimidation.

    Edited by Valmy77
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    mchookem

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

    IMG_2804.jpeg

     

    IMG_4377.gif.9d72b96129f4cb6a5568081069e82b96.gif

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    Dnaguy

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    If Paxton honestly thought Cosco's policies actually discriminated based on race, he would have sued them a long time ago. Or enforced the laws. This is just political intimidation.

    Paxton can get fucked.

    Costco is one of the few stores that I frequent that has serious talent in their workforce. 
    Northside SA locations have some latinas working there with nice balconies and a caboose to match.

    That lazy eye twat rocket better not mess with one of the last simple pleasures I get on my busy ass weekends.

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    pacman

    Posted

    Wife says this became official this week. The lpc board seemingly felt the law gave them no choice. Note, one can't be a therapist without having the capability of empathy for other cultures regardless of personal opinion. Commitment to learning about those different from you is part of the job, ensuring you can delete very quality service. This didn't stop the worst therapists from celebrating this change.

    Screenshot_20250131-180816.png

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    Valmy77

    Posted (edited)

    So is Abbott and the Texas government just going to sit by while this dude puts a 25% tariff on Texas' biggest trading partner?

    If they do nothing we know they don't work for us.

    The legislature is meeting so at least somebody in Austin might mention it.

    Edited by Valmy77
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    bluto

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    So is Abbott and the Texas government just going to sit by while this dude puts a 25% tariff on Texas' biggest trading partner?

    If they do nothing we know they don't work for us.

    The legislature is meeting so at least somebody in Austin might mention it.

    Abbott and the lege are scheming up how to tack on an extra layer of tariffs bc djt is right, so more must be better. 
     

    there are no adults left in the room

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    bluto

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    Total shit-tier governor.  I hate this timeline so much. 
     

    image.thumb.png.86b717f74cfb1ffdd01d3c4634acda59.png

    Cross pollinating but it’s all so predictable

    Horn Dog

    Posted

    As posted in the hotwheels thread…what’s the plan?  Texas imports from Canada are predominantly oil and energy products used by the refineries.  How is Abbott gonna hurt Canada with his “huge economy”?  By not importing oil to refine??  Thats like threatening to punch yourself in the nuts if you don’t get your way.

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    Pato del Muerto

    Posted

    They’ll outlaw Canadian whiskey and Canadian bacon.  Maybe not permit Canadian-based sports teams form playing in Texas. 

    • Haha 1
    Valmy77

    Posted

    When you are going to war with Canadians you have to stop a second and reflect on your life choices.

    Anyway I would rather he call out them than Mexico.

    Horn Dog

    Posted

    My understanding (admittedly limited) is refineries are configured to refine oil from specific regions.  Those configured to refine Canadian crude can’t just start using oil from elsewhere and reconfiguring a refinery is expensive and time consuming.  So I guess Abbotts plan is to just mothballl those refineries to appease his orange daddy.

    IMG_3430.gif.cd32b58d9c356a00d0c6edf8f8305e8b.gif

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    bolverk

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

    My understanding (admittedly limited) is refineries are configured to refine oil from specific regions.  Those configured to refine Canadian crude can’t just start using oil from elsewhere and reconfiguring a refinery is expensive and time consuming.  So I guess Abbotts plan is to just mothballl those refineries to appease his orange daddy.

    IMG_3430.gif.cd32b58d9c356a00d0c6edf8f8305e8b.gif

    I guess we didn't need their precious fucking Keystone pipeline so badly after all.

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    tx 3 putt

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

    As posted in the hotwheels thread…what’s the plan?  Texas imports from Canada are predominantly oil and energy products used by the refineries.  How is Abbott gonna hurt Canada with his “huge economy”?  By not importing oil to refine??  Thats like threatening to punch yourself in the nuts if you don’t get your way.

     

    make them take ted cruz back !

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    tx 3 putt

    Posted (edited)

    canadian oil is heavy and dirty 

    Edited by tx 3 putt
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    Evil Bill Obrien

    Posted (edited)

    1885453928713572454

    So when do they start removing those pesky eyesore DEI Wheelchair ramps from the State Capitol grounds and Governors mansion??

    Totally unrelated: anyone know how much a jackhammer rental would run in Austin...

    Edited by Evil Bill Obrien
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    Firemans4Horn

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

    1885453928713572454

    So when do they start removing those pesky eyesore DEI Wheelchair ramps from the State Capitol grounds and Governors mansion??

    Totally unrelated: anyone know how much a jackhammer rental would run in Austin...


    Surprised he didn’t manage to misquote MLK Jr. like republicans do every January. 

    Chad Fuck

    Posted


    Surprised he didn’t manage to misquote MLK Jr. like republicans do every January. 

    Theres always next year!
    Superhero

    Posted

    As if the Texas education system isn't already one of the worst.

     

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    Chad Fuck

    Posted

    As if the Texas education system isn't already one of the worst.
     

    Fuuuu….

    Yet my stupid magat teacher friends in tiny town Texas just put their heads in the sand.
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    South Austin

    Posted (edited)

    9 hours ago, Superhero said:

    As if the Texas education system isn't already one of the worst.

     

    So fucking infuriating.  My son will start high school in August, and I'm worried about a rough four years.  At least my oldest is in college, far away from this fucking place.

    Edited by South Austin
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    Dnaguy

    Posted

    On 2/1/2025 at 9:14 PM, Horn Dog said:

    My understanding (admittedly limited) is refineries are configured to refine oil from specific regions.  Those configured to refine Canadian crude can’t just start using oil from elsewhere and reconfiguring a refinery is expensive and time consuming.  So I guess Abbotts plan is to just mothballl those refineries to appease his orange daddy.

    IMG_3430.gif.cd32b58d9c356a00d0c6edf8f8305e8b.gif

     

    On 2/1/2025 at 9:21 PM, bolverk said:

    I guess we didn't need their precious fucking Keystone pipeline so badly after all.

     

    On 2/2/2025 at 1:40 AM, tx 3 putt said:

    canadian oil is heavy and dirty 

    I’ve been out of the oil / petrochemical game for a while but this is what I at least think I know about the subject. (Please surly Petro bosses correct what I get wrong)

    Canada’s main ‘crude oil’ is bitumen. Bitumen is like asphalt or tar and in Canada more or less solid. Hence tar sands. You don’t drill for it, You open pit mine it. It’s designated an extra heavy crude.

    Venezuela also has extra heavy crude as well. It’s pretty damn close to bitumen and at least a super close cousin to it.

    So in Texas there were a lot of refineries set up for Venezuelan crude. We used to be super tight with them before Chavez. So that Citgo shit came here. Then when Venezuela turned, it was about the time Canada turned in the spigot of tar sand oil. 
    Boom! We could replace the lost oil with an analog.

    But without Venezuelan oil or Canadian tar sands, the need / economics of heavy crude refineries is pretty nil 

    The stuff coming out of the eagle ford or Permian is light crude which you don’t send to a heavy crude refinery. It would require a lot of retrofitting / mods. Which probably isn’t economically feasible. Better to just send it to another refinery build for light crude and add capacity there.

    So if this thing really comes to pass, you’ll likely see closures in gulf coast refineries due to lack of raw material and reverberations in the supply chain as C4 monomers and product streams dry up even more than they already have (a lot more C2’s and c3’s now due to crackers coming online and the lighter feed sticks from fracking since the 2010’s)

    This will have a significant effect on the petrochemical industry and downstream petrochemical market IMO.

     

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    bolverk

    Posted (edited)

    17 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

     

     

    I’ve been out of the oil / petrochemical game for a while but this is what I at least think I know about the subject. (Please surly Petro bosses correct what I get wrong)

    Canada’s main ‘crude oil’ is bitumen. Bitumen is like asphalt or tar and in Canada more or less solid. Hence tar sands. You don’t drill for it, You open pit mine it. It’s designated an extra heavy crude.

    Venezuela also has extra heavy crude as well. It’s pretty damn close to bitumen and at least a super close cousin to it.

    So in Texas there were a lot of refineries set up for Venezuelan crude. We used to be super tight with them before Chavez. So that Citgo shit came here. Then when Venezuela turned, it was about the time Canada turned in the spigot of tar sand oil. 
    Boom! We could replace the lost oil with an analog.

    But without Venezuelan oil or Canadian tar sands, the need / economics of heavy crude refineries is pretty nil 

    The stuff coming out of the eagle ford or Permian is light crude which you don’t send to a heavy crude refinery. It would require a lot of retrofitting / mods. Which probably isn’t economically feasible. Better to just send it to another refinery build for light crude and add capacity there.

    So if this thing really comes to pass, you’ll likely see closures in gulf coast refineries due to lack of raw material and reverberations in the supply chain as C4 monomers and product streams dry up even more than they already have (a lot more C2’s and c3’s now due to crackers coming online and the lighter feed sticks from fracking since the 2010’s)

    This will have a significant effect on the petrochemical industry and downstream petrochemical market IMO.

     

    Last week, I read an article about refining in the Midwest (yes, apparently, there are refineries up there), which stated that Midwestern refineries are almost entirely dependent on Canadian oil. So, I imagine those will also feel the pain, if not worse.

    Edit: I hope I'm not stepping on any toes, but I believe that @Schulz2.0 works at one in Denver. What say you?

    Edited by bolverk
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    Schulz2.0

    Posted

    1 hour ago, bolverk said:

    Last week, I read an article about refining in the Midwest (yes, apparently, there are refineries up there), which stated that Midwestern refineries are almost entirely dependent on Canadian oil. So, I imagine those will also feel the pain, if not worse.

    Edit: I hope I'm not stepping on any toes, but I believe that @Schulz2.0 works at one in Denver. What say you?

    Yes, the company is work for is Canadian. They make a ton of money off open pit mining tar sands, processing it to the point it can go into pipelines, and send it to the US to get processed by refineries. I'm not an engineer or have anything to do with crude blends, but it'll increase the costs for refineries to get heavier, sour crude they need. That's particularly true for Midwest refineries. They still blend heavier crude with lighter crude, depending on their refinery specs and what products they want to produce. @PTINS might have more knowledge.

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    Evil Bill Obrien

    Posted

    Well at least there are a few other counties with Harris County in the fight on this one and it's not just Harris County alone vs State Republicans...

    Had a crazy idea that I kinda want to see happen just to watch our States Republicans squirm and waive their hands around to try and make go away: What if Elon in his quest to make X the "Everything App" gets our dear leader Donald onboard with the idea that he can make X secure enough thru some sort of blockchain tech to allow for voting by phone/over the internet? Would they throw a total shit fit in defiance of Dotard and Elmo?

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    Brisketexan

    Posted

    Well at least there are a few other counties with Harris County in the fight on this one and it's not just Harris County alone vs State Republicans...
    Had a crazy idea that I kinda want to see happen just to watch our States Republicans squirm and waive their hands around to try and make go away: What if Elon in his quest to make X the "Everything App" gets our dear leader Donald onboard with the idea that he can make X secure enough thru some sort of blockchain tech to allow for voting by phone/over the internet? Would they throw a total shit fit in defiance of Dotard and Elmo?

    Are you kidding? They would love it, because “every accusation is a confession.” Want to see an electronic voting system that is ridiculously rigged? Turn that process over to Elon and Twitter, and prepare for election results like in North Korea, “Trump wins 4th consecutive term with 98% of the vote.”
    At this point in the timeline, this has a better than even chance of happening.
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    Evil Bill Obrien

    Posted

    My friends who either currently work or have worked in the lege in the past always have to remind the rest of us whenever we bring up the crazy town bills like this that get filed every two years that the way the lege is designed its far, far easier to find ways to kill a bill than it is to successfully pass one and get it to the Governor's desk to be signed into law. It still does get me aggravated that there are elected representatives out there that think some of these are good ideas and should be laws...

    bolverk

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:


    The Texas Tribune has a report on uncapped oil wells, and the story probably belongs in the climate thread, but the report focuses on the paltry amount of money designated to address the problem and how none of the money has been spent. Uncapped oil wells are a serious problem. For instance, one well just upped and created a brackish, 60 acre lake, which is emitting hydrogen sulfide, among other toxic substances. 
     

    Texas is not a serious state.

     

    https://www.texastribune.org/2025/02/04/texas-leaking-abandoned-oil-water-wells-tceq-railroad-commission/

    Lake Boehmer: https://maps.app.goo.gl/EbryBFdJ232Em2KGA

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    pyrohornIII

    Posted

    On 1/22/2025 at 6:14 PM, tx 3 putt said:

    these three idiots are in charge of the worlds 8th largest economy, just a fyi ...

     

    IMG_2723.jpeg

    Ann Richards had more cajones than these 3 combined when it came to standing up for Texans.

    On 1/29/2025 at 1:21 PM, CooterBrown said:

    Senate Bill 14 – Texas DOGE – Improving Government Efficiency

    This could be the worst of them all.  

     

    Who remembers the John Sharp Audits of the 80s?

    On 2/3/2025 at 12:18 PM, royiv said:

    Texas Republicans back at it trying to reduce access to voting.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2025/02/03/texas-voting-countywide-election-day/

    Yeah, that's about as dumb as returning to hand counting ballots.  And it's not just the money for extra machines.  With the current climate it's hard enough to find election workers for 20-30 polling places.  Try doing that for triple the poll sites.   

    Good place for the Texas DOGE to start.  See how they justify their fellow Republicans being so grossly inefficient. 

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    Foosters

    Posted

    1 minute ago, wild_turkey said:


    If this passes, wouldn’t it effectively end IVF in this state?

    end it and criminalize it.

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    pyrohornIII

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:


    If this passes, wouldn’t it effectively end IVF in this state?

    From the article, pretty much yeah, or at least make it a dicey thing to do legally.

     

    Quote

    What about IVF (In Vitro Fertilization)?
    In vitro fertilization (IVF) could also face devastating restrictions under this bill. The IVF process typically involves fertilizing multiple eggs outside the body to increase the chances of a successful pregnancy. However, not all fertilized embryos are implanted; some are discarded, stored, or donated for research.

    Since the bill grants full legal rights to embryos at the moment of fertilization, any unused or discarded embryos could be treated as victims of homicide. Fertility clinics and doctors who follow standard IVF procedures could be charged with criminal offenses for failing to implant every fertilized egg.

    Additionally, couples seeking fertility treatments might face intense legal scrutiny over how embryos are handled, effectively reducing access to IVF. Patients could be forced to undergo unwanted procedures, such as implanting all viable embryos, or risk legal action for “destroying” an embryo.

    The result is a full-scale assault on reproductive autonomy. By criminalizing widely used birth control methods and essential fertility treatments, HB2197 does not protect life. It undermines the fundamental right of individuals to make private healthcare decisions. Under the guise of “equal protection for the unborn,” Texas Republicans are further entrenching state control over reproductive choices, with devastating consequences for women, families, and healthcare providers across the state.

    By redefining life as beginning at fertilization, this bill criminalizes abortion at all stages and threatens access to commonly used contraceptives and fertility treatments like IVF.

     

    PTINS

    Posted

    On 2/1/2025 at 8:53 PM, Horn Dog said:

    As posted in the hotwheels thread…what’s the plan?  Texas imports from Canada are predominantly oil and energy products used by the refineries.  How is Abbott gonna hurt Canada with his “huge economy”?  By not importing oil to refine??  Thats like threatening to punch yourself in the nuts if you don’t get your way.

    Note: I haven't read, or posted on this thread before. I only posted here as a response to a linked post, and a few of the recent comments.

    I agree. I general, economics are best served by refining Canadian oil in US refineries. That is a macro, default statement.

    There may be a few refineries that are still dependant on sweeter and lighter grades of crude,and those light sweet crude oils cost considerably more than the heavier and sour crude oils.  

    On 2/1/2025 at 9:14 PM, Horn Dog said:

    My understanding (admittedly limited) is refineries are configured to refine oil from specific regions.  Those configured to refine Canadian crude can’t just start using oil from elsewhere and reconfiguring a refinery is expensive and time consuming.  So I guess Abbotts plan is to just mothballl those refineries to appease his orange daddy.

    IMG_3430.gif.cd32b58d9c356a00d0c6edf8f8305e8b.gif

    Refineries are designed for a particular slate of oil, not necessarily from a specific region.

    Most US refineries were designed to refine crude oil from ... wait for it... the US. The declines in US production in the ~ 80's precipitated a refining industry shift towards refining heavier and more sour grades of crude from Canada, Mexico, and South America.

    That does not mean they cannot refine other grades of crude oil. The  issues become (i) how much is overall capacity reduced by refining a non-preferred grade of crude, i.e., is the refinery capacity reduced from 200,000 bbl/day to 180,000 bbl/day because of the change in feedstocks, and (ii) how much is the production of the money products (gasoline, diesel, transportation fuels) decreased, and replaced by increases of the "other" products, lubricants, solvents, sulfur, asphalt, etc.  

    On 2/1/2025 at 9:21 PM, bolverk said:

    I guess we didn't need their precious fucking Keystone pipeline so badly after all.

    Nope. Just pay more for gasoline. No biggie.

    Preferred transportation options:

    Pipelines

    (big gap)

    Ships, Rail cars, trucks, 5 gallon cans.

    It is a matter of cost, and safety. Pipelines are cheaper, and safer.  Anything else results in higher costs to end users, and an increased risk of accidents due to introducing more people into the equation. 

    Crude oil and petroleum products are preferentially shipped by pipelines, until you reach the end of the pipeline. 

     

    On 2/2/2025 at 1:40 AM, tx 3 putt said:

    canadian oil is heavy and dirty 

    Heavy v. Light is indicative of the viscosity and weight of the oil, where sweet v. sour is indicative of the sulfur compounds in the oil.

    All oil is dirty, even the Pennzoil 10W-30 out of the can. 

    The Canadian tar sands oil/bitumen is both heavy and sour.

    On 2/3/2025 at 9:00 AM, Dnaguy said:

     

     

    I’ve been out of the oil / petrochemical game for a while but this is what I at least think I know about the subject. (Please surly Petro bosses correct what I get wrong)

    Canada’s main ‘crude oil’ is bitumen. Bitumen is like asphalt or tar and in Canada more or less solid. Hence tar sands. You don’t drill for it, You open pit mine it. It’s designated an extra heavy crude.

    Venezuela also has extra heavy crude as well. It’s pretty damn close to bitumen and at least a super close cousin to it.

    So in Texas there were a lot of refineries set up for Venezuelan crude. We used to be super tight with them before Chavez. So that Citgo shit came here. Then when Venezuela turned, it was about the time Canada turned in the spigot of tar sand oil. 
    Boom! We could replace the lost oil with an analog.

    But without Venezuelan oil or Canadian tar sands, the need / economics of heavy crude refineries is pretty nil 

    The stuff coming out of the eagle ford or Permian is light crude which you don’t send to a heavy crude refinery. It would require a lot of retrofitting / mods. Which probably isn’t economically feasible. Better to just send it to another refinery build for light crude and add capacity there.

    So if this thing really comes to pass, you’ll likely see closures in gulf coast refineries due to lack of raw material and reverberations in the supply chain as C4 monomers and product streams dry up even more than they already have (a lot more C2’s and c3’s now due to crackers coming online and the lighter feed sticks from fracking since the 2010’s)

    This will have a significant effect on the petrochemical industry and downstream petrochemical market IMO.

     

    The US refines heavier crude oil from Canada & Mexico and exports the lighter, sweet crude oil produced in the Permian (Delaware & Midland Basins).

    More refineries are shutting down every year. I believe the last grassroots refinery built in the US went online in the 70's.

    I cannot see politics and ignorance getting to the point that refinery retrofits are feasible. Those are 30-50 year decisions, unlike presidential elections. 

    Canadian oil feeds US refineries, which satisfies the US needs, as well as a significant export volume to Europe. The oil from the shale boom is not a good fit for US refineries. Any changes to the status quo means higher gasoline and diesel prices. Shutting down US refineries over tariffs is a very low probability.

    "C4 monomers and product streams dry up even more than they already have..." No idea what you are trying to say with C4 monomers and C2's and C3's.  Correlating box cars to telephones and rocks?

    Processing Natural Gas, not crude oil refineries, yields the feedstocks for petrochemical plants, and the blending stocks for motor gasoline.  Refineries make propane and butane, but much, much smaller quantities than come from the gas processing plants.

    The higher crude oil production from the various shale plays has seen a proportional increase in produced gas volumes, but those gas volumes are much higher because the gas/oil ratios are much higher from the shale production than from conventional wells. This boom in gas volumes and had a corresponding boom in the production of Natural Gas Liquids (NGL), Ethane (C2) for the Pet-Chem plants to make plastics, Propane (C3) for the Pet-Chems and for rural heating, and the heavier NGL's (iC4, nC4, and C5+) for motor gasoline blending stocks, and for the Pet-Chem's.  All of these NGL satisfy US demand, with the surplus going to the export market.

    On 2/3/2025 at 9:18 AM, bolverk said:

    Last week, I read an article about refining in the Midwest (yes, apparently, there are refineries up there), which stated that Midwestern refineries are almost entirely dependent on Canadian oil. So, I imagine those will also feel the pain, if not worse.

    Edit: I hope I'm not stepping on any toes, but I believe that @Schulz2.0 works at one in Denver. What say you?

    On 2/3/2025 at 11:02 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

    Yes, the company is work for is Canadian. They make a ton of money off open pit mining tar sands, processing it to the point it can go into pipelines, and send it to the US to get processed by refineries. I'm not an engineer or have anything to do with crude blends, but it'll increase the costs for refineries to get heavier, sour crude they need. That's particularly true for Midwest refineries. They still blend heavier crude with lighter crude, depending on their refinery specs and what products they want to produce. @PTINS might have more knowledge.

    A lot of US NGL (the C5+ fraction of natural gas liquids) goes to Canada, to be used as the diluent to blend with the tar sands oil to make is "light" enough to flow through a pipeline. 

    The Canadian tar sand oil does not flow to the US without the US produced diluent that is "exported" to Canada. US Policies (Yes to Tariffs, No to Pipeline) = stupidity. 

    I expect at some point a degree of reasonableness will make its way to the White House/Energy department and this will; get a lot of fanfare without much actually changing.

    Glad I'm retired so I don't have to worry about this shit anymore.

    • Hook 'Em 6
    • Like 1



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