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Cooked up a little boneless pork chops, corn, and bacon wrapped sausage. Vodka and lemonade a cool libation. In lieu of a dessert I'll take a win.
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The myth of the market always being efficient and everything being "priced in" is bullshit. My spidey senses kind of feel like the 2-3 week period in Jan/Feb '20 where Covid was no longer a rumor. Wuhan was locked down on Jan 20th, cruise ships were having a hard time docking etc... I was buying puts like crazy and wondering why the fuck the market was just inching up every day. Finally about a month later (feb 24) the dam broke and the markets starting taking a massive shit, and I had the one and only 6 figure trading month of my life. My decision was not based on the deaths or the lethality of the 'rona as that was still somewhat unclear in late Jan, but merely the fact that the global supply chain was gonna be proper fucked due to an inability to source product from China due to the shutdowns in manufacturing centers. It took well over 2 years for some lead times to return to normal in the markets I was familiar with (industrial automation hardware like robotics, PLCs, sensors, industrial PCs). Those are the same products that will need to supply all of the factories Trump wants over here in the US and a TON of that shit comes out of China, Singapore and Taiwan. I think there are some similarities with the current stresses that will surface with our supply chain today although not as severe as the covid shock. You can hear it in earnings calls and yet the markets keep creeping up. Algorithms make up 90% of trading these days, and they are gonna do what they do, but I see no evidence to suggest they price in these scenarios. they are too busy bidding up the price of PLTR to a PE of 654. In any case, I made a good chunk of change on puts in March and April. The last group look like they will expire worthless, but thats why you take profits on the way down. I've been sitting back for the last few weeks, but decided today to jump back in with about 25% of my profits into new puts after the market close today. I'm prepared to dump it all over the course of the next month or two as its house money, so to speak. We haven't solved shit as it relates to tariffs, the guys running the show on our end are fucking morons, prices are going up and layoffs are a coming.
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Round two looking better for San Marcos. Rained just enough to make mud.
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UT System Chancellor Milliken leaving for UC System
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Tracking Trump Administration and Cabinet picks
Anastasis replied to PenelopeWitherspoon's topic in Cloak Room
You struggle with honesty. Don't use quotes to reflect the things you hear that are made up in your own mind. Here is what was said: -
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Deion Sanders "Coach Prime" Now At Colorado
Im_smarter_then_you replied to Don Johnson's topic in Football
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Good tip. I struggle with my pull-ups but I’ll try that
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Havent gotten a drop of water in 78745 all week.
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Tracking Trump Administration and Cabinet picks
Bullneck replied to PenelopeWitherspoon's topic in Cloak Room
It's Friday afternoon, so you know what that means: I figure at about 1:30am Trump is going to text some warfighting plans to Hegseth, who will be snockered at Moe's Tavern. Hegseth will turn around and text them to his kid's little league team and get fired by 4pm. -
This is where I'm at and came to this thread to see what I'm missing. I don't 'trade' but paused my auto fund investments this week. I'm struggling to understand a base case for the economy/market improving over the next 6 months. Even in the scenario where a deal is cut with China and/or other countries in the near term, there should be at least some irreversible short term damage to jobs, supply chain, etc. that won't be reflected in any data yet (but should be priced in?). Assuming "some" tariffs remain in place you will still have inflationary pressures. I still think uncertainty is limiting capital deployment on a macro basis. What are we missing?
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This is quite possibly the greatest show of strength from the forcefield we’ve ever seen. 4-7” predicted, and nada
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Deion Sanders "Coach Prime" Now At Colorado
Greg Davis Apologist replied to Don Johnson's topic in Football
I think he actually said, “Shedeur don’t take no backseat to no quarterback.” -
#PaulWeissed
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Jalen is to black people what Jackson is to white people.
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Got 1.6” in the rain gauge in Smithson Valley area. Austin/San Marcos/SA getting deep dicked stiil.
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Jalen Rose reached the finals and won MIP in 2000. No coincidence most of the Jalen/Jaylin/Jaylen/etcs in the league were born around 2001-2003
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THJ, Schroder, and Beasley will be FAs but each of them are pretty replaceable. It's 26-27 when things get pretty expensive for Detroit - Duren will for sure get a big extension and Ivey was playing well before he went down with his injury. If Ivey has a good year in 25-26, he too will get huge $$$. Salary Player Age 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 Guaranteed Tobias Harris 32 $25,365,854 $26,634,146 $52,000,000 Tim Hardaway Jr. 33 $16,193,183 $16,193,183 Isaiah Stewart 23 $15,000,000 $15,000,000 $15,000,000 $15,000,000 $45,000,000 Cade Cunningham 23 $13,940,809 $38,661,750 $41,754,690 $44,847,630 $47,940,570 $51,033,510 $238,178,959 Dennis Schröder 31 $13,025,250 $13,025,250 Ausar Thompson 22 $8,376,000 $8,775,000 $11,117,925 $17,151,000 Ron Holland 19 $8,245,320 $8,657,280 $9,069,600 $11,491,183 $16,902,600 Jaden Ivey 23 $7,977,240 $10,107,163 $18,084,403 Simone Fontecchio 29 $7,692,308 $8,307,692 $16,000,000 Malik Beasley 28 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Jalen Duren 21 $4,536,840 $6,483,144 $11,019,984 Paul Reed 25 $3,913,234 $3,913,234 Marcus Sasser 24 $2,755,080 $2,886,720 $5,198,983 $5,641,800 Lindy Waters III 27 $2,196,970 $2,196,970 Bobi Klintman 22 $1,257,153 $1,955,377 $2,296,271 $2,486,995 $3,212,530 Tolu Smith 24 Daniss Jenkins 23 Ron Harper Jr. 25
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Idk but I like him to win. Not a very good field and no one behind him worth a shit.
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Well…. Er, ahhhh, I had to post in Surlys Shart thread!
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2025 NHL Playoffs Thread - Let the madness begin!
Longhorn_Fan68 replied to Longhorn_Fan68's topic in Other Sports
Go Blues! (tonight only)
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